InTheMoneyStocks Market Analysis

Chart Ahead Of Apple Inc. (AAPL) Earnings Looks Fishy. Did They Have A Blow

The volatility last week was wild with earnings that just did not cut it. However, the real shock came when President Obama, due to a republican win in MA and the super majority gone in the senate, was forced to talk of tightening the noose on bank and the future risk they wish to take. Considering these banks like Goldman Sachs Grp. (NYSE: GS) made half their revenue from trading, a high risk venture, this put a major scare in Wall Street. It also sets up a possible war between Wall Street and the administration. Since President Obama took office, he has been a dear friend to the banks and in turn they have scratched his back. However, with a possible war looming, Wall Street is on edge and rightly so. This culminated with a near 600 point drop in the DOW from Wednesday through Friday last week. This week promises to be even more wild with Apple Inc. (NasdaqGS: AAPL) reporting earnings after the bell on Monday and much of the S&P later this week.

While market commentators and analyst try and figure out where the next move is going, I just turn to the charts. Apple is one of the most interesting charts to look at after the dramatic fall in the markets the last few days. The daily chart took out the 20 and 50 moving averages, yet today is getting a solid bounce ahead of earnings. The bounce on Apple is holding just below the 50 moving average. Any technician must be concerned that Apple took out key support in recent days. I know it sounds like blasphemy to question whether or not Apple will have a blowout quarter, however, here I sit wondering just that. Even if they beat earnings, which I do expect them to do solidly, based on the charts, I do not expect the stock to move higher. In fact, I look for a sell off down to a target $190.00.

In addition to all the major earnings releases this week, watch for the FOMC Policy Statement on interest rates on Wednesday afternoon and for the State of the Union Address Wednesday night. As a Chief Market Strategist and trader, this type of market is a dream come true. Learn it and master it.

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RealTick graphics used with permission of Townsend Analytics, Ltd. ©1986-2009 townsend Analytics, Ltd. All Rights Reserved. RealTick is a registered trademark of Townsend Analytics, Ltd


Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
 
Re: Chart Ahead Of Apple Inc. (AAPL) Earnings Looks Fishy. Did They Have A Blow

Interesting post, will watch with interest.

Thanks,:)
 
Three Ring Circus

What a day in the market! This morning Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson will be on the hot seat regarding the bailout of American International Group (NYSE:AIG). The members on Capital Hill are wondering and asking why AIG was bailed out? The perception from many in Washington was that AIG was bailed out in order to keep Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) solvent as they paid Goldman Sachs back 100 cents on the dollar while the American tax payer paid the bill again. This hearing should be something to see today, even if nothing else comes from it.

Later this afternoon the Federal Reserve Bank will announce the Fed funds rate (overnight borrowing rate from the Federal Reserve Bank to the large major banks) and their opinion on the condition of the economy. Currently the overnight lending rate is at zero. This statement will be released at 2:15 pm EST and is usually a market moving event.

This evening at 9:00 pm EST President Obama will give his “State of the Union” address. One can only wonder if he will rescind or revise his recent comments about the banks that are too big to fail. He recently made a speech that implied he would reinstall a rule similar to the former Glass Steagall Act of 1933. Remember this rule was removed during the Clinton administration. The Glass Steagall Act of 1933 stated that banks could not invest or engage in investment banking activities and authorized deposit insurance. During the crisis in 2008 all of the major banks such as J.P. Morgan (NYSE:JPM), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), and countless others have and still are engaged in hedge funds, proprietary trading, insurance products, and other investment vehicles prohibited in the original Glass Steagall Act of 1933.

This is certainly going to be a fun day on Wall Street. The markets have been weak since mid January and remain under pressure. However, technically speaking many stocks and indexes are near or at support in the near term. Enjoy the show as it should be quite entertaining.

Nicholas Santiago,
Chief Market Strategist
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com

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Oil Setting Up For Bounce. U.S. OIL FUND ETF (USO), Exxon Mobile Cp (

As a Chief Market Strategist at InTheMoneyStocks I study the markets for close to 15 hours a day. Price, pattern and time are my holy book as I recognize master setups and alert my clients to them. Today I bring you a new call. I am giving oil an upside bias for the near term. Fundamentals along with technicals are telling me there will be a bounce. It looks like it already may have begun today.

The U.S. OIL FUND ETF (NYSEArca: USO) has sold off from my top call at $41.20. That sell off was harsh and beautiful taking the USO down to the 200ma on the daily chart. With the market correcting, and the dollar strong, people are wondering if oil is headed lower. Near term I say no. Oil will see a bounce off these levels and move higher to a target on the USO of $38.20. This is what is called a swing trade. A short term trade held over the course of a few days for profit.

My premium members received their alert this morning and were advised to look at not only USO but also Ultra DJ-AIG Crude Oil ProShares (NYSEArca: UCO). This is a 2x long ETF for oil. Generally speaking, you get 2x the risk but 2x the reward. In addition, Exxon Mobile Cp (NYSE: XOM) appears to be ready for a short term swing trade bounce as well off of the $65.00 level.

Based on key fundamental oversold conditions and major technical supports, I am issuing an upside bias alert on oil. Live, Learn, Profit!

Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
 
Re: Oil Setting Up For Bounce. U.S. OIL FUND ETF (USO), Exxon Mobile Cp (

would you not agrr though that oil was mojorly overbought in the first 2 weeks of january because traders thought the bad weather would drive prices up by using up some of the ENORMOUS reserves.
the reason the eia's figures for oil showed a draw in crude today was due to the weather of a few weeks ago which has been delayed from the markets. there will be huge builds for the next weeks because with where the economic recovery is going (nowhere fast), oil will fall, aswel as the dollar rising, id say crude should be back where it belongs $65-70 range
 
Obama Does Not Bash Wall Street, Markets May Bounce. (SPY), (QQQQ), (USO)

The markets staged a late rally after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. In addition, their comments alerted the markets that interest rates would remain at rock bottom levels for the foreseeable future. With interest rates low, stimulus money flowing, growth and the re-inflation rally continuing in the near term are likely. The markets surged into the close turning from a negative day into a solid positive day.

In addition, this evening President Obama gave his State of the Union address to the nation. This week Wall Street has had a tough time rallying due to worries about the tone of his speech. The worry stemmed from his latest comments on regulating banks and not allowing them to take risks. The risk companies like Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) have taken and are directly responsible for the massive profits they have turned in the last year. Goldman Sachs reported that over six billion of their nine billion in revenue came from trading. President Obama has warned he wishes to curb risk by the banks. Those comments had been the catalyst to the latest dump on Wall Street.

The markets were on pins and needles as they awaited the State of the Union address this evening. Harsh comments directed towards Wall Street did not happen. In a relief push, the S&P futures are currently trading higher by 8.25 points.

Look for commodities like oil, United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO) and the markets, SPDR Trust, Series 1 (NYSE:SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ) to bounce tomorrow. The bounce could be short lived but enjoy the relief rally for now.

Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
 
The U.S. Dollar index is still the driving force.

Stock market futures soared last night when the President of the United States was giving his 'State of the Union' address around 9:00 pm EST. Please note that the U.S. Dollar index also began to decline at that very time. Once the dollar began to bounce the futures began to pull back in it's overnight gains. The weak dollar is very important for this market if it is to rally. Please remember a strong dollar puts pressure on commodities and inflationary stocks, therefore, making it difficult for the market to inflate.

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The U.S. Dollar and the index futures are both higher after GDP. Which one will fall?

The stock index futures and the U.S. Dollar index jumped higher after the U.S. GDP report was released around 8:30 am EST. The GDP report did come in better than expected by expanding 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter. Since the March 2009 lows the weak U.S. Dollar has been the main catalyst for stock market rally. As the dollar declined a rally in commodities and agriculture has helped inflated the market higher. Since the dollar began to rise most commodities have declined.

It will be interesting to see if the dollar and the market can both hold their pre-market gains as the actual trading day gets underway. Usually the market will advance if the dollar declines intraday . Rarely will the stock market remain strong if the dollar continues to trade higher. We shall see.

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As The Dollar Inches Into Resistance, Expect A Commodity And Market Bounce

The markets have tumbled over the last two weeks giving a sour start to 2010. Many point to the fall as being a result of President Obama's tough talk on bank regulation, not allowing them to take risks that have been the key driver of profits. The Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (NYSE:XLF) has tumbled in the last two weeks over 7%. Stocks like Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) has tumbled from its the highs on January 7th, 2010 of $179.75 to recent lows of $148.27. While many blame earnings and the Presidents tough talk against Wall Street there is another culprit.

It seems that the real key to the drop on Wall Street is none other than the U.S. Dollar. The dollar has spiked higher over the last few months killing commodity prices. Price of oil had dropped dramatically along with gold. Stocks like Southern Copper Corporation (USA) (NYSE:pCU), Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NASDAQ:STLD) had crashed in the last three weeks. These two stocks have fallen 27% and 25% respectively. In addition, the biggest players in the commodity realm have also seen a major price correction. Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX), each a major component of the DOW have collapsed almost 10%. Being a major part of the DOW, this type of drop has a dramatic effect on the index itself and could be looked as a major portion of the losses in the last two weeks in the markets. The root of the issue all comes back to the dollar.

As the dollar has ripped higher, commodities have fallen. iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL) has fallen from $27.22 to $23.44. That is a 14% drop in a mere two weeks. The impact on the markets of this type of fall in commodities is earth shattering.

To find the bottom in this market, the point where this market will get a significant bounce, one must turn to the charts of not oil, not gold, not XOM, CVX, GS or the XLF but to the U.S. Dollar. Everything comes back simply to the dollar. PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE:UUP) is closing in on a major resistance area and should spell a pullback. As we know, if the dollar pulls back, commodities will bounce. If commodities bounce, commodity stocks like XOM and CVX will bounce. If those stocks bounce, they will have a direct and major impact on the DOW. The markets will surge.

This level on the dollar is the 200 moving average. It is close to hitting. In fact, the UUP (dollar ETF) is only a dime ($0.10) away. With this resistance point looming, expect the dollar to fall back and a bounce to come into the markets any day. This will most likely only be a short term bounce but a solid one. Enjoy the chart below of the dollar ETF, the UUP and the 200 moving average.


RealTick graphics used with permission of Townsend Analytics, Ltd. ©1986-2009 townsend Analytics, Ltd. All Rights Reserved. RealTick is a registered trademark of Townsend Analytics, Ltd


Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
 
Markets are down in January. What does this mean? The SPDR Trust (NYSE:SPY)

Many traders and investors believe that the month of January is the most important month of the year. The old market adage states that "the market year will behave the same as the month of January." Therefore, if January is a down month many expect the year to be down. While this has been true for many years it is not always the case.

Let's take a look at last year for instance. The SPDR Trust (NYSE:SPY) topped out on January 6th, 2009 from it's short term bottom in November 2008. It then declined into early March before making the low for the year. As we all know the market in 2009 staged one of it's sharpest rallies in market history.

What can we expect for 2010 with January being a down month? Certainly no one person can say for sure what 2010 will bring. However, what one can say is that a zero year in a decade is certainly different from a nine year in a decade. Historically, the nineth year of a decade is one of the most bullish years of a decade. We can also say with a fair amount of certainty that the zero year (2010) of a decade is notoriously a bearish year of the decade.

Will this year be different? Perhaps, it will be. There isn't anyone that knows for sure. There are no guarantees in the markets. However, if there is one rule that I have learned over the years it is to stick with history.

Nicholas Santiago,
Chief Market Strategist
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com

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Markets Move Higher On The Back Of Exxon Mobil And A Weaker Dollar

The markets are moving higher with the DOW up just under 100 points today. This move is on the back of some harsh selling the last two weeks after worries over the global recovery surfaced on the back of China tightening its lending policy. In addition, strong comments from President Obama as he knocked banks and discussed halting their ability to take high risk investments. Earnings for the most part have not impressed either creating a triple threat type event in the markets.

The catalyst to the move higher today was earnings from Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM). Their earnings came on the back of Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) Friday morning. Chevron had a poor showing and with the Friday selloff, both Exxon and Chevron ended lower.

As a Chief Market Strategist I love situations like this and I will explain why I was able to call a long play to all the members at InTheMoneyStocks.

1. Exxon Mobil beautiful move into the weekly master support triple bottom at $64.50.

2. Extreme Technical Oversold Signals.

3. Chevron Sympathy Lowers Overall Expectations For Exxon Making It Likely For Exxon To Beat.

4. Market Due For An Oversold Bounce.

These three signals made it a low risk earnings play for an upside move. Sure enough, Exxon Mobil reported a profit of $6.05 billion with earnings per share at $1.27. Expectations had been for earnings at $1.19 per share. The stock jumped higher by 2.75%. Members are enjoying the profits and I am back at work looking for the next big play.

In addition, the dollar is also helping oil prices which in turn help Exxon Mobil. The dollar, PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE:UUP) is falling slightly today which is pushing crude up. The United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO) is up 1.40% on the day. The UUP (dollar index ETF) hit the 200 moving average on Friday and I expected it to fall back. Follow the technicals, it will open a whole new world of profits.

Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
 
Maestro (U.S. Dollar) sets the stage

The U.S. Dollar (NYSE:UUP) has really been the catalyst for the major moves in the stock market. In March 2009 when the stock market was crashing the U.S. Dollar rallied to its 2006 high. Since that point the dollar went into a virtual free fall. The high print in March 2009 for the U.S. Dollar was 89.62. At this time the SPX (NYSE:SPY) hit a low of 666.79 as fear was running wild across Wall Street. In November 2009 the U.S. Dollar traded as low as 74.20. This is a over a 15 point decline, or about 17.2 percent.

As we all know the stock market staged one of it's biggest rallies in market history in 2009. All of the major indexes bounced higher by more than 50 percent off the lows and the tech heavy NASDAQ Composite (NASDAQ:QQQQ) even bounced over 80 percent off it's March 2009 lows. The catalyst was obviously the weak U.S. Dollar.

If anyone watches the dollar intra-day they will notice that when the dollar declines the market bounces or rallies. Often on any down tick in the dollar commodities will instantly bounce or trade directly inverse to the dollar. However, when the dollar rises or trades higher commodities usually pause intra-day or slowly decline before dropping sharply. It usually takes a strong move in the dollar to push commodities down sharply.

Lets use today as an example. The U.S. Dollar index was gapped lower to start the day. The futures and most every commodity related stock was gapped higher to begin the trading day. Since that time the dollar has traded higher from it's gap down low open and commodity stocks have pulled back slightly off their intra-day highs. Therefore, it takes constant upside in the dollar to knock or keep these inflationary stocks down. Some of these inflationary and commodity stocks that are trading higher today on the back of the weak dollar are Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), U.S. Oil Fund (NYSE:USO), SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD), and Ishares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV) just to name a few.

Remember almost every trade is a dollar trade. When the dollar is falling or declining watch the commodity and inflationary stocks as they are likely to trade higher. When the dollar is strong watch for pressure on the commodity and inflationary stocks.

Nicholas Santiago,
Chief Market Strategist
www.InTheMoneyStocks,com

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Ground Hog Day

Today's action is very similar to yesterday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE:DIA), SPX 500 or the SPDR Trust (NYSE:SPY), NASDAQ (Nasdaq:QQQQ), and the Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) are all climbing higher. One could make a case that the same two supporting factors from yesterday are driving the markets higher. They are the weak U.S. Dollar and the poor or light volume in the market. Yesterday we discussed that when these two factors take place it has lead to a rally day in the markets. Today is no exception as this seems to be the recipe for a rally.

The U.S. Dollar index (NYSE:UUP) is trading lower again today. The DXY (U.S. Dollar index verses a basket of 6 major currencies) is lower by 0.26 cents to 78.98. Meanwhile, the Powershares U.S. Dollar index ETF (NYSE:UUP) is lower by 0.07 cents on the day. While these declining numbers don't sound like much these are sharp moves in the currency markets and directly effect the prices of commodities. Remember a weak dollar will help most inflationary stocks to inflate.

The second factor that supports the markets to the upside is the light volume. Often when there is light volume in the market it makes it difficult for short sellers. Hence the old market adage, "never short a dull market." Yesterday and today seem to be one of those days when the volume is light and the market is dull.

Who benefits from the combination of light volume and a weak dollar? Generally, most all stocks benefit from light volume. However, commodity and inflationary stocks usually benefit the most form a weak U.S. Dollar. On days like today the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD), Ishares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV), U.S. Oil Fund (NYSE:USO), and IPath Dow Jones UBS Copper Sub-Index (NYSE:ARCA) should all be in play. Remember every trade is a dollar trade so keep an eye on the dollar.

Nicholas Santiago
Chief Market Strategist
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com
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Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE:TM) Gets Slammed Again...Is It A Buy?

Short term Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE:TM) may just be at that special price for a swing trade buy. Toyota has been slammed of late after announcing countless recalls and problems with their cars. The stock has collapsed from a high on January 19th, 2010 of $91.97 to a low today of $71.90. Between $72.00 and $72.50 there is a massive level of support that may yield a short term multi day bounce back to $75.00 or more. Look for this level to yield significant near term support. However, it may not last long term. As a Chief Market Strategist I am just looking for a short term bounce on Toyota Motor Corp.

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Re: Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE:TM) Gets Slammed Again...Is It A Buy?

Alerted above on the Rant and Rave Blog. TM Buy between $72.00 - $72.50. Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE:TM) just hit $74.20.
 
Did you expect anything different?

The rally from the March 2009 lows was one of the largest rallies we have ever witnessed in stock market history. While the ninth year of a decade is usually a bullish trading year there a very few people who expected an advance over fifty percent off the lows. Many traders and investors including myself would have expected at least one 10 percent correction during that rally; as we all know that did happen. The closest that we did come to a ten percent correction in the major indexes was in June through early July 2009, when the market pulled back nearly eight percent. That was really the extent of it for the year of 2009 as far as pullbacks and corrections are concerned.

Why is 2010 a completely different picture for the stock market? When the SPDR TRUST (NYSE:SPY), Power Shares QQQ(Nasdaq:QQQQ), and Diamonds trust Series 1 ETF (NYSE:DIA) found a low in March 2009 the public was in despair. People believed that the next great depression was underway. Massive liquidity was put into the market by every central bank in the world. Cash literally poured into every toxic asset that was ever designed. Since that time the markets have responded by moving over 50 percent off their lows. Now what? Are we back to normal yet?

Today the markets want to know what is next from Mr. Bernanke and company (other central banks). Like the Janet Jackson song says, “what have you done for me lately”? What is next for an encore? The general problems such as the severe housing crisis still remains, the high unemployment picture has not changed, banks have cut credit lines are still not lending or making significant loans, and spending by the consumer continues to remain near extremely low levels. While the Federal government can create tax breaks and incentive programs for hurting citizens and residents to make them feel like they are getting something, however, can that really fix the problem?

Where are we now? Currently we are in the middle of a correction. If you have ever gone to a party, you know the party must come to end eventually. Well, the market is telling you that the 2009 party is over for now. Yes, someone will have another party along the way. New spending programs will come up to give the markets a lift. However, someone has to pay for these parties and with the current problems the cash is limited. Therefore, while there will be rallies along the way don't expect 2010 to be anything like 2009.

Nicholas Santiago
Chief Market Strategist
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com
 
The Dollar Soars, Commodity Stocks Drop, I Begin To Lick My Lips!

Continued fears over sovereign debt, a possible bubble in China as they tighten lending and Europe's cratering economy have caused a major flight to safety in the U.S. Dollar, PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE:UUP). The Dollar Index is seeing a dramatic rise today again which is causing a continued collapse in oil and gold. The United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO) is in play now for a possible move higher between $34.50 and $33.75. There is major support in this range.

This could be the near term flush on oil and gold we have been looking for. Often times towards the end of a move up or down you get the final push. This is recognized by massive amounts of volume and a massive intra day move in price. Today could be near term capitulation on both oil and the gold SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD). The dollar is getting extremely short term extended at these levels. Any pullback in the dollar should result in a bounce in commodities and commodity stocks. Be ready as this market is a short term swing traders heaven.

Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
 
Does Panic Equal Buying Opportunity On United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE:USO)

Oil is trading near the lows of the day following massive technical selling that was triggered at a break of $35.25. The dump has taken the USO down to the master support region between $34.25 - $33.75. This range will have a high probability of a bounce on oil and should be watched for a short term swing. In addition, the high technical volume should be noted as a decent signal that a short term bottom may be in due to what is referred to as capitulation. This is when a stock or market has fallen dramatically in recent days/weeks and when it is near the recent lows, it gets flushed out with huge volume on a massive intra day move lower. This could be what has happened to oil and the USO today.

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Big Reversal Days Must Be Watched

The major indexes such as the SPDR Trust (NYSE:SPY), Diamonds Trust (NYSE:DIA), Powershares QQQQ Trust (Nasdaq:QQQQ), and the IShares Russell 2000 Index (NYSE:IWM) have all had a high volume reversal on Friday February 5th 2010. This reversal took place in the final hour of the trading session and must be respected when looking out into next week.

There is something else that is also stands out about last Friday. It was the fourth negative week for the major indexes. The last time the stock market was down four weeks in a row was when the market made a short term top on June 11th and bottomed around July 8th before staging another rally. From this June 2009 high the point decline on the S&P 500 pullback to the low in July 2009 was around 87 points. This time the S&P 500 looks to have made a top in January 2010, and if a short term low was made on February 5th, 2010 which is 4 weeks in time the decline from high to close is about 84 points. While this decline it is not exact, the markets remain very symmetrical and often do.

The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) is another index that displays symmetry from the recent past. In February 2009 the GLD pulled back 9 weeks into mid April 2009. The decline for this ETF was about 14 points. Before the end of November 2009 the GLD made a recent top at just under 120.00 a share. Since that high, the GLD has pulled back 10 weeks now for a decline of 14.86 points as of the close on February 5th, 2010. While the point decline is not perfect it is important to notice the symmetry in time and price.

While there is no evidence yet of these lows in the markets holding up for the long term. However, they often do so at least in the short term. In many ancient texts there is saying, "as above so below." Perhaps this is some evidence to the wisdom of the past. In any case watch those big reversal days.

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Nicholas Santiago
Chief Market Strategist
IntheMoneyStocks.com
 
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