If you want to fail as a trader, study TA

[episteme]

Here's a Question....

Let's go back a few weeks. Let's say you brought shares in Toyota (TM) on January 8th when it broke out to new highs. Say you got in at $85.70.

Then - you are sitting at home watching TV and you see that their cars are killing people.

Do you ignore this information and stay in the trade ?

My 2p and I don't trade individual stocks.

Given that the recall is well within normal limits (i.e. loads of recalls happen every year - this is nothing particulalry surprising) - then I would be looking to add on the overreaction the way it is being reported will probably cause. ( Provided I still liked the company and market conditions.)

I would use my TA signals to try and time when to place that order to add.

 

[DionysusToast]

My 2p and I don't trade individual stocks.

Given that the recall is well within normal limits (i.e. loads of recalls happen every year - this is nothing particulalry surprising) - then I would be looking to add on the overreaction the way it is being reported will probably cause. ( Provided I still liked the company and market conditions.)

I would use my TA signals to try and time when to place that order to add.

I think you are absolutely right.

Absolutely right to not trade individual stocks...

 

[episteme]

I'm sure you are right.

Just had a quick look at a chart for it. If I had bought on Jan 8th I would have had a stop at 80. So wouldn't still be in this trade. That stop would have been dictated by Terchnical Analysis.

The stock has found support at 72ish now twice and held. I can't put my signals on it - but it does look like it's turning back up now. I would definately be looking to re-enter given that I must have some reason for liking toyota and the broader market is still ok.

 

[BSD]

Lol Dio T this thread is getting dumber by the minute...

YOU are unable to make money trading via TA, so you presume NOBODY can...

Honestly, deducing like that doesn't get more imbecilic.

What I am doing is proving that TA works because there are more than enough people trading that way...

If it walks like a duck, talks like a duck and looks like a duck, guess what, IT IS a Duck !!!



This guy here, I've watched him trade live at some trading expo, he did that for free on a stage in front of hundreds of peole, all he uses are moving averages lol:

http://www.godmode-trader.de/nachri...ptrades-mit-insg-26-Pips-profit,a1871777.html

Thank God I'm not so moronic or narrow minded to delude myself that nobody can invest long term via fundamentals as there is obvious proof in the form of guys like jim Rogers that it can work.

But all the people, locals, funds etc I've cited that trade via TA make it just as obvious to all but those with severe comprehension problems that TA works perfectly for short term trading an d scalping like Paul Rotter does with his annual income of 50 - 60 million €uros.

Christ what a bunch of losers all these whiners here who can't get it to work for themselves, and make the absolutely imbecilic assumption that thus it can't work for anyone else.

Someone tell that to Simons of Renasissance Technologies who is worth ( Billion dollars that data mining price don't work bud lol coz some whingers on a message board can't get it to work.



And still no viable alternative from these guys.

You'll NEVER see this bunch trade live haha thats for sure.

Nothing but negative hot air is what they have to offer.

 

[episteme]

BTW - Buying Toyota in Jan on a high breakout looked highly dangerous given the overall markey looked overbought. Yes that's hindsight - but in this case the TA was right and the market did pullback.

 

[Devilicus]

Here's a Question....

Let's go back a few weeks. Let's say you brought shares in Toyota (TM) on January 8th when it broke out to new highs. Say you got in at $85.70.

Then - you are sitting at home watching TV and you see that their cars are killing people.

Do you ignore this information and stay in the trade ?

By the time it was on the TV, I persume the stock had already dropped off lots?
What day did the story break? Has the stock been dropping off lots since the story hit the news?

Does Fundamental anaysis only matter when news comes out?

For what its worth, im pretty much a TA guy. I have a couple of 'different' methods i use which I guess you could call a form of TA, but alot of my stuff is basic chart reading.

That being said, im not one of the stubborn ones who totally ignores news etc.
If im in a trade and big unemplyment news is out in half an hour, ill be looking to exit my position very soon.

I guess im happy enough with my methods, but that doesn't mean id be close minded to new methods...but that's the problem. Any 'anti TA' thread made just never delivers anything of value in terms of an alternative.

I enjoy your posts tho, DT.

 

[BSD]

To me DT simply comes across like an extremely bitter person deep in denial about the perfectly obviously indisputable fact that there are numerous people and funds that over decades have proven that TA works.

From all my examples that is at least obvious for anyone in command of his 5 senses and who isn't brain dead.

But isn't that what all negative whingers always have in common, for ever being against something, never believing things are possible, and never ever offering any concrete and substantive alternatives that might actually be reproducable like that guy I cited trading live in front of hundreds for free with his moving averages.

Negative no-can-do attitudes certainly keep one firmly in the comfort zone of failure where one can commiserate with ones fellow whiners while those that succeed are just getting on with it and making fortunes.

 

[MrGecko]

 

[BSD]

Lol that ain't judging that's just stating the obvious...

Jim Rogers et al made money investing long term off of fundamentals...

I'm not so brain dead as to be unable to accept that obvious fact...

But, lol, I'm also able to simultaneously wrap my brain around another co-existing fact that loadsa others made fortunes trading TA over decades...

An inability to accept simple facts coz they don't fit ones cherished pet theories or don't mesh with personal inabilities is just plain moronic and most definitely not indicative of the mental agility, acuity and perceptiveness one needs to make it as a trader.

 

[MrGecko]

an inability to accept simple facts coz they don't fit ones cherished pet theories or don't mesh with personal abilities is just plain moronic and most definitely not indicative of the mental agility, acuity and perceptiveness one needs to make it as a trader.

qed

EDIT: Add a bit more

The idea that a random series of 0's and 1's can be traded by drawing trendlines is a total f*cking brainfart. A great example of the Cave analogy in practice. Moreover, someone who cites a presentation made by a broker stating such a fact with three graphs clearly lacks a) commercial accumen to register conflicts of interest , and b) is so desperate to reinforce their own beliefs they will accept anything that reinforces them, regardless of whether there is any merit to the argument.

Also, here is a list of people who have fallen from planes without parachutes and survived. I asked around for anyone who hadn't had the same result, couldn't find anyone. Ergo, falling from planes without a parachute works.

Nobody is saying that market generated information can't be used for trading. I think the general point is that applying random processes to the data will, on aggregate, yield random results.

 

[BSD]

Lol yeah hey for sthg constructive for a change, how on earth do you you save your stop loss and profit targets on ninjatraders super dom, my workspace saves with charts and ladder and general layout and all when I exit, but I gotta input my custom ATM strategy new every time I start up again, not a big nightmare of course lol but still a bit of a hassle, any way around that ?

Thanks if anyone knows

 

[SuperDriveGuy]

Lol yeah hey for sthg constructive for a change, how on earth do you you save your stop loss and profit targets on ninjatraders super dom, my workspace saves with charts and ladder and general layout and all when I exit, but I gotta input my custom ATM strategy new every time I start up again, not a big nightmare of course lol but still a bit of a hassle, any way around that ?

Thanks if anyone knows

Hi BSD,
First of all change the "ATM Stragey" to custom. Make changes to Profit Target/StopLoss etc, then to save this, right click in the DOM, choose "Manage ATM Strategy Templates".

Take this opportunity to thank you for your many informative posts!
Regards,

SDG

 

[BSD]

Lol Gecko san just caught your late add on you know to be honest I have never understood what you're on about whereas my points are perfectly straightforward and well backed up:

A: There are people investing off of fundamentals making and losing money.

B: There are people trading off of a mixture of fundamentals and TA.

C: There are people trading exclusively off of TA for whom it absolutely doesn't matter what the chart instrument is, or even if it's random.

Lol.

Not that hard to get, so which part don't you get.



That guy I quoted earlier does free webinars every single week where he scalps with nothing but rainbow moving averages lol.

Algo funds making thousands of trades per day off of data mined price relationships are simply not gonna check what the fundamentals are before every trade, that's just a complete no brainer.

"High Frequency Trading

The drastically reduced cost of electronic trading has made a huge variety of new and different trading strategies feasible. Led by Jim Simons' Medallion Fund, the high frequency hedge fund category is now the most profitable on Wall Street.

"In fact, high frequency trading has boomed in recent years, to reportedly account for an estimated 70 per cent of average daily trading volume. The technology essentially involves automated tick-by-tick, high turnover buying and selling, which relies heavily on the speed and sophistication of the network and computer systems involved. These are lightning fast and voluminous trades to take advantage of minute and fleeting changes in prices. Speed is obviously essential — as is beating the competition to an arbitrage opportunity."
FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » The Cold War in high frequency trading

Trading on those time frames its kinda self explanatory that the state of the economy simply doesn't factor into the trading.

So again, my points are perfectly clear, funnymentals work, a combo of funnys AND TA can work, but, sigh, for the umpteenth time, so does PURE TA.

Christ what a waste of time this entire thread, proving that the world is round to a bunch of people who have their heads firmy stuck in places they don't belong if you wanna see where you're going.

 

[BSD]

Hi BSD,
First of all change the "ATM Stragey" to custom. Make changes to Profit Target/StopLoss etc, then to save this, right click in the DOM, choose "Manage ATM Strategy Templates".

Take this opportunity to thank you for your many informative posts!
Regards,

SDG

Hi mate thank you very much appreciate that

 

[N Rothschild]

can TA alone explain the massive spike down in crude? course it cant, it was the crude oil inventories!

 

[BSD]

can TA alone explain the massive spike down in crude? course it cant, it was the crude oil inventories!

You don't need the explanation is the point, you just trade what is.

Can funnymentals explain oils wild price explosions up and down and all over the place of the last years ?

Have the funnymentals really changed that dramatically along with price swings ?

Or the Internet bubble ?

Not much to do with hard facts any of it is it.

So while markets can remain irrational far longer than we can remain solvent I much prefer just trading what is, not what should be.

So in TA you just buy pullbacks when it's going up, short em when it's going down, and fade extremes when you're ranging, that's all there is to it.

 

[N Rothschild]

tradinc crude inventoris "when the price is going up or down", good luck with that!

 

[elitejets]

can TA alone explain the massive spike down in crude? course it cant, it was the crude oil inventories!

Oh dear. One of those. No I don't believe thats 8 inches either.

Time for some humour here.

 

[N Rothschild]

dont make me send photos to your skype nic!

 

[BSD]

tradinc crude inventoris "when the price is going up or down", good luck with that!

I don't trade potentially market moving news when I'm scalping, that's definitely not my thing, but longer time frames when I'm going for swing trades I completley ignore news.

Whats a spike on a 155 tick chart is a just a normal lil ole back and forth on an hour etc chart.