If You Can Draw A Straight Line (You Can Become A Successful Trader)

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dbphoenix

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I exchanged PMs with Sharky about the Harriman House thing, but I don't see how it would work. For one thing, it's not a real "book"; it's an eBook. And it's not the sort of thing people are used to, or at least people who are unfamiliar with my writing.

I wish I had come up with this ten years ago. I could have saved all those people who were struggling with Wyckoff a lot of time and trouble and frustration. Twenty pages beats the hell out of 500. What I had in mind was to post this precis then answer whatever questions people might have. Which might be none. But there does seem to be a renascence of interest in trading price. Look at all the discussions of Al Brooks et al (the chief problem there being that they really aren't trading price). Perhaps as more people become disenchanted with forex, they will become more interested in trading price.

I've been working on this in this form since early '13, and there are plenty of drafts floating around. I sometimes feel like Microsoft, churning out revision after revision and patch after patch. But I believe at this point that if what I posted in the first post doesn't click with whoever reads it, the rest of it would not be of any interest either.

I don't want to get into a long, boring story, but one of the reasons I stopped posting here was that I had little to nothing to offer spread-betters and forex traders. And there's only so much that one can say about price and volume (and I think a thousand posts covered it). But the SLA can be used with anything, even if it isn't mean-reverting. And it doesn't include volume at all :) And though I don't recommend it, the journal can be skipped almost entirely :D
 

Fugazsy

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Books are ok they can provide you with some perspective in trading but they wont make you successful , no one will become a successful trader from reading or studying a trading book . Its not rocket science prices go up you buy , go down you sell . You need a lot of experience and huge discipline to execute that properly and end up in the black .
so true, a book is only a perception of an individual in the endless facets of the market, his perceptions are a consequence of his experiences which are not necessary the experiences of others, beside that even if a specific perception of a particular individual can take advantage of a segment of the market it does necessary emigrate to another individual due to differentiation in personality.
 

dbphoenix

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6,927 1,233
so true, a book is only a perception of an individual in the endless facets of the market, his perceptions are a consequence of his experiences which are not necessary the experiences of others, beside that even if a specific perception of a particular individual can take advantage of a segment of the market it does necessary emigrate to another individual due to differentiation in personality.
The market, however, couldn't care less about the trader's personality, which is why it's up to the trader to accommodate the market, not the other way around. Likewise, the trader's "perceptions" are not particularly relevant. The market has a structure, as explained in the first post. If one doesn't understand that structure, or is even completely unaware of it, what he is most likely to perceive are bunnies in clouds.
 

Fugazsy

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3,661 677
The market, however, couldn't care less about the trader's personality, which is why it's up to the trader to accommodate the market, not the other way around. Likewise, the trader's "perceptions" are not particularly relevant. The market has a structure, as explained in the first post. If one doesn't understand that structure, or is even completely unaware of it, what he is most likely to perceive are bunnies in clouds.
The trader has to accommodate to the market based on his personality, otherwise has not any chances to get along with it, the secret is to find a style that reflects his personality. Yes the market has structures but are not rigid one, they are fluid and the trader needs to build with time screen the ability to merge with them.
 
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dbphoenix

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6,927 1,233
The trader has to accommodate to the market based on his personality, otherwise has not any chances to get along with it, the secret is to find a style that reflects his personality. Yes the market has structures but are not rigid one, they are fluid and the trader needs to build with time screen the ability to merge with them.
The "secret", however, lies in determining how the market works, then determining how best to take advantage of this dynamic. The latter involves many choices. But they must all be rooted in basic market dynamics. Whatever secret there may be in the latter lies as you say in screen time and learning how to merge with the market's demands, i.e., humility.
 
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NVP

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so true, a book is only a perception of an individual in the endless facets of the market, his perceptions are a consequence of his experiences which are not necessary the experiences of others, beside that even if a specific perception of a particular individual can take advantage of a segment of the market it does necessary emigrate to another individual due to differentiation in personality.
have you been drinking coffee again F .........;)
 

NVP

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lets fae it

most people fail because of a few simple things

1) lack of intelligence
2) lack of discipline (to learn / to research / to persevere / to peel the layers / to execute)

but also more importantly a lack of self awareness / reality checks ...............most things we humans do in our comfortable westernised lifestyles can be candy coated to allow us to live in a bubble of non reality ........where we repeatedly let ourselves off of our promises and dreams and commitments ......... trading is a rock that cannot be sugar coated ............people walk away pretty quickly when the bottom line tells them that they are crap traders and no amount of excuses can be used to ease the pain unlike the rest of our lifestyles

N
 

dbphoenix

Legendary member
6,927 1,233
lets fae it

most people fail because of a few simple things

1) lack of intelligence
2) lack of discipline (to learn / to research / to persevere / to peel the layers / to execute)

but also more importantly a lack of self awareness / reality checks ...............most things we humans do in our comfortable westernised lifestyles can be candy coated to allow us to live in a bubble of non reality ........where we repeatedly let ourselves off of our promises and dreams and commitments ......... trading is a rock that cannot be sugar coated ............people walk away pretty quickly when the bottom line tells them that they are crap traders and no amount of excuses can be used to ease the pain unlike the rest of our lifestyles

N
Reminds me of this:

The stock market doesn't beat around the bush. It doesn't give A's for effort. It doesn't say, "Everbody is special, just in their own way". The stock market offers direct, quantitative confirmation of exactly how much of a loser you are.

-- Joey Anuff and Gary Wolf


A bit harsh, but . . .
 
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barjon

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..................... Time to get back to the topic :)....................
What a good idea :LOL:

Let me offer a question: What happens when you are looking at an accelerating trend rather than a flattening one and when it then starts flattening where do you draw your trend line from?
 

dbphoenix

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What a good idea :LOL:

Let me offer a question: What happens when you are looking at an accelerating trend rather than a flattening one and when it then starts flattening where do you draw your trend line from?
Depends on the bar interval and the timeframe. If one is using a weekly interval and using the last departure in November '12, then there's been no change in the trendline. So far.

However, if one is looking at supply/demand lines, which are quicker to track demand/supply imbalances within the overall trend, it's a matter of the line being broken, in which case one is looking at either a reversal or a shift to ranging.

For example, if you look at p. 11, you'll see that price has reached the upper limit of the weekly trend channel. The weekly trend is still up, but that doesn't mean there are no counter-trend trades. Those are some of the potential tactics in trading a channel.

In any event, if you look down at the hourly, you'll see that the demand line is broken once price reverses off the upper limit of the weekly channel. At this point, you either have a reversal or you move sideways. Here you have both, but you can't know that in advance. So once this line is broken, you go for the reversal. When this doesn't work out either, you take the long, according to the rules, as you have no way of knowing whether or not price will exit the upper limit of the channel and change course again.

If you then look at the chart on the next page, you'll see that price finds R at that last swing high, which is also the upper limit of the trend channel. Once the demand line is broken, one takes the short.

And, yes, it seems like a lot of in-and-out, but if the trader has no idea what he's looking at, then a rules-based approach is the preferred course. Most would rather resort to indicators, which is fine, but that's not what trading price is all about. The advantage of this particular approach is that (a) losses are strictly contained and (b) the trader is not allowed to exit a winning trade just because he feels like it.
 

Sharky

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I exchanged PMs with Sharky about the Harriman House thing, but I don't see how it would work. For one thing, it's not a real "book"; it's an eBook. And it's not the sort of thing people are used to, or at least people who are unfamiliar with my writing.
Actually most of the review copies that Harriman House (and others) have offered, are in eBook format. If you've got an eBook reader, even a Kindle (the new Paperwhite, is awesome btw!) it's easy to upload a pdf to it. They just send 10 copies out to the emails we give them, and then wait for the reviews to come in.

So if you wanted to do it, it's perfectly possible, up to you how many copies, and any restrictions (perhaps you'd want to hand pick who gets to review it). Ultimately, it's good for the members, as they get a free copy, and give an honest appraisal, and it's good for the publisher, as it's a bit of free marketing. Everyone loves a win-win! :D
 

Pat Riley

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794 178
If you've got an eBook reader, even a Kindle (the new Paperwhite, is awesome btw!) it's easy to upload a pdf to it.
No, I don't. But I can see you now, sitting by your pool in your snow white speedos, dark, tanned, lithe form pulsing in a manly fashion while you manfully prod your Paperwhite, softly moaning, and wait for your pedicure team to arrive.

Mmmmm....
 

tar

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10,441 1,309
No, I don't. But I can see you now, sitting by your pool in your snow white speedos, dark, tanned, lithe form pulsing in a manly fashion while you manfully prod your Paperwhite, softly moaning, and wait for your pedicure team to arrive.

Mmmmm....
This is a straight thread Pat ...
 
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Pat Riley

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This is a straight thread Pat ...
I used to be straight, but hen I saw Sharky in his speedos.

Actually, this looks like as serious thread that could do without me pointless babble. Apologies ta all. I'm back on the sidelines.
 
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