Ideas for increasing trader performance

[everyonerich]

Alert on eur/gbp daily chart.

based on the guidelines, watch for pin bar in 1h, or for further 'confluence' also use fibonacci measure. just wait and see now..

 

[trader_dante]

Alert on eur/gbp daily chart.

based on the guidelines, watch for pin bar in 1h, or for further 'confluence' also use fibonacci measure. just wait and see now..

Everyonerich, although a pin bar in this location would be a "perfect setup" it is not one I would take. The reason why is I have a theory I have mentioned a few times before that the more a support/resistance is tested, the weaker it becomes. This is the fourth test of this level and the tests are happening more frequently (that is, there is less time occuring between each test). What, I want to know is: why is the market constantly coming back to this level? In such cases I work on the assumption that the market wants to explore below it.

So now I am approaching it with three options:

a) Wait for a break below this level and play a retest back to it from underneath to go short.

b) Wait and see if a failed break occurs and if so attempt to get long. There are two ways to play failed breaks but that's another topic altogether.

c) Wait on the sidelines for a large rally and breakout of the triangle that is forming (you don't have this descending trend line on your chart) and then play a retest of that.

 

[trader_dante]

When I get some time I will put up some ideas for playing failed breaks/patterns as these can be very profitable.

If someone can remind me next week I'll do that - pretty busy today.

Tom

 

[AlexisD]

A fresh idea:

Read both "A short course to technical trading" and "Smarter trading" from Perry J. kaufman.

New trading systems and methods is fantastic, but not for beginners.

Alex

 

[pavelsg]

I trade:

There were a few markets I was net negative in over time. As a result these are no longer in my list of markets I trade. As I just said the main one was the S&P500 (The only reason I still watch this is because it is very important as a reference for when I trade the FTSE or DAX).

Hi Tom.

Will you explain me how to use your tips and tricks of this one?

Pavel

 

[swedendenmark]

Hello Tom,
Thanks for your reply. I can understand that with the time and maturity in trading you have achieved so far, its quite manageable without many of the things one draws on a chart.
Forgive me, but I wished to ask that why do we use emas when they may not work in a volatile situation? They are still a secondary indicator. You just mentioned

The concept of the 50 trending and the pullback to the 10-21 zone is a powerful one and led me into many good trades.

So, would it be wrong to say that emas and MACD come with an implicit rider, ' Avoid using under volatile conditions'?

2) I don't trade as many markets. I now watch and trade just twelve markets.

Well, I can understand your reasons for trading 12 markets now a days. You just said that you are not using pin bars as such and one can attribute that to your experience in the market. You are watching things from a much higher perspective than what we newbees do.

I wish to ask you, don't you think that it is a good idea that one does some programming and that his program alerts him when ever there is a pin bar formed?

Let's take an example of Daily TF in forex. Let the program run every 5:00 pm eastern time(NY) and which so ever currency pair, major/minor, has a pin bar, the program alerts him. That way one can avoid missing pinbars and can trade in many many markets. Once he has a list or pin bars, he can look out for confluence and see if it constitutes a high probability setup worth trading.

I just do demo trading with oanda, but I think meta trader gives one the possibility to do programming in its customised language and that its platform can send email alerts. This way one can couple the two and have a list of pinbars.

I am sure people would have done similar things, but I wished to seek your take on that. Your perspective would be esteemed.

Thanks and Regards

 

[everyonerich]

Hello Tom,
Thanks for your reply. I can understand that with the time and maturity in trading you have achieved so far, its quite manageable without many of the things one draws on a chart.
Forgive me, but I wished to ask that why do we use emas when they may not work in a volatile situation? They are still a secondary indicator. You just mentioned




So, would it be wrong to say that emas and MACD come with an implicit rider, ' Avoid using under volatile conditions'?



Well, I can understand your reasons for trading 12 markets now a days. You just said that you are not using pin bars as such and one can attribute that to your experience in the market. You are watching things from a much higher perspective than what we newbees do.

I wish to ask you, don't you think that it is a good idea that we do some programming and that your program alerts us when ever there is a pin bar formed?

Let's take an example of Daily TF in forex. Let our program runs every 5:00 pm eastern time(NY) and which so ever currency pair, major/minor, has a pin bar, our program alerts us. That way one can avoid missing pinbars and can trade in many many markets. Once we have a list or pin bars, we can look out for confluence and see it constitutes a high probability set up to trade in.

I just do demo trading with oanda, but I think meta trader gives you the possibility to do programming in its customised language and that its platform can send email alerts. This way one can couple the two and have a list of pinbars.

I am sure people would have done similar things, but I wished to seek your take on that. Your perspective would be esteemed.

Thanks and Regards

simplest solution is ask trader_dante to execute his live trade on any demo/live MT4, and give us the read-only password..

hope he'll post a heads up here before theres an entry, what do you say?

 

[swedendenmark]

simplest solution is ask trader_dante to execute his live trade on any demo/live MT4, and give us the read-only password..

hope he'll post a heads up here before theres an entry, what do you say?

I think, I have interchangably used "our/your" in my previous post and that caused confusion. NO WHERE I asked Tom to give me his list of potential seups. Might be it conveyed an impression inadvertently like that and for it, I apologise. I have editted my post for the sake of proper elucidation.

All I meant was that, if it is a good idea for somebody to write his/her own code/program which gives them a list of pin bars.

 

[swedendenmark]

simplest solution is ask trader_dante to execute his live trade on any demo/live MT4, and give us the read-only password..

hope he'll post a heads up here before theres an entry, what do you say?

You gave me an early morning english exercise.

Post has been made highly singular. Hope no more confusion.

 

[DHB]

A pinbar is only that, a bar (or candle). Pinbars as such are only a minute piece of the puzzle that is a high probability trade setup. If you really find it hard to identify pinbars, there are expert advisors available for Metatrader 4 which will place an arrow above perceived pinbars, but really, after a little practice, you can easily spot them yourself. Here are 2 documents that will help you identify the good ones. The very best ones always stick out and practically scream to be traded anyway. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, do yourself a favour and read through T_D's MMT thread elsewhere on this forum, and also at least the first hundred pages of the James16 thread over at FF.

The 3 most important factors that determine a high probability trade setup are location, location, and location. Kinda like real estate, come to think of it. How you see price behaving at these high probability locations depends on the data feed you're using, i.e., one data feed will give you a pinbar, another data feed might give you an inside bar, or perhaps a bullish or bearish outside bar. It's all the same actually. All patterns indicate that a reversal is taking place. If you want to make optimal use of your time, focus on spotting good locations and finding supporting factors (confluence), such as fib retracement levels, fib confluence (i.e., 2 or more fib levels more or less overlapping at the same price level), (E)MA confluence and round numbers.

 

[neil]

You gave me an early morning english exercise.

Post has been made highly singular. Hope no more confusion.

Your English is fine. It was Everyones etc who asked for signals from TD (Fat chance since TD is not a signal provider for the lazy).
Take a look on Forex factory dot com - I have seen a pin bar alert indicator (free) on it somewhere.
Good luck.

 

[swedendenmark]

Your English is fine. It was Everyones etc who asked for signals from TD (Fat chance since TD is not a signal provider for the lazy).
Take a look on Forex factory dot com - I have seen a pin bar alert indicator (free) on it somewhere.
Good luck.

Thanks for your reply. Well, I am a software developer, so I can write the code myself. Quite easy it is. It could be one of the first steps in ones pursuit for developing an automated trading system in the long run. Just that I wanted to know Tom's perspective on that. I don't need any ready made signals from anyone. I have no desire for spoon feeding and I think Tom had already helped people a lot through his regular postings at T2W.

Sorry, if my english caused any misunderstanding.
Regards

 

[neil]

Thanks for your reply. Well, I am a software developer, so I can write the code myself. Quite easy it is. It could be one of the first steps in ones pursuit for developing an automated trading system in the long run. Just that I wanted to know Tom's perspective on that. I don't need any ready made signals from anyone. I have no desire for spoon feeding and I think Tom had already helped people a lot through his regular postings at T2W.

Sorry, if my english caused any misunderstanding.
Regards

SPOONFEEDING !!! I was not trying to spoonfeed you but simply to point you to developers on another thread that discuss such things !

http://www.forexfactory.com/forumdisplay.php?f=69

 

[swedendenmark]

SPOONFEEDING !!! I was not trying to spoonfeed you but simply to point you to developers on another thread that discuss such things !

http://www.forexfactory.com/forumdisplay.php?f=69

Hi Neil,
Yes, I know that you are not spoon feeding me . I was talking in a general manner. I have to seriously question my english now, I guess .
Thanks a lot for sending that forex factory thread, I shall look into that.
Regards

 

[trader_dante]

Your English is fine. It was Everyones etc who asked for signals from TD (Fat chance since TD is not a signal provider for the lazy).
Take a look on Forex factory dot com - I have seen a pin bar alert indicator (free) on it somewhere.
Good luck.

I do try to alert people to strong setups that I see from time to time. I already called two on this thread but on the whole I find it a difficult business because once I call a trade I feel like I have to answer to everyone that sees that call. Then you can sometimes begin to doubt yourself and before you know it you are losing your edge...

I've toyed with the idea before of doing a kind of "signal service" on collective2 because that way, although I would know I have subscribers, I won't know who is taking my trades and won't get any feedback on individual ones.

In a forum environment it's much harder because of the natural responses you will get.

I had a recent example of this last week when I called a FTSE trade to someone I have been helping...the trade went 77 ticks into profit and I ran it and came out with a profit of just 5 ticks eventually. Throughout the trade you have the questions: "should I move my stop yet"...."this is stalling"....etc and then when the trade is closed out you get the inevitable "this is disappointing..." and then "perhaps next time I should..."

All I know is I will make money over time trading the way I do but it's pretty hard to follow me when you're at the grass roots.

 

[trader_dante]

Forgive me, but I wished to ask that why do we use emas when they may not work in a volatile situation?

Because they can increase your profitability if you use them correctly.

So, would it be wrong to say that emas and MACD come with an implicit rider, ' Avoid using under volatile conditions'?

No, they come with an implicit statement: "Learn how to use them properly and then follow the rules..."

I wish to ask you, don't you think that it is a good idea that one does some programming and that his program alerts him when ever there is a pin bar formed?

Let's take an example of Daily TF in forex. Let the program run every 5:00 pm eastern time(NY) and which so ever currency pair, major/minor, has a pin bar, the program alerts him. That way one can avoid missing pinbars and can trade in many many markets. Once he has a list or pin bars, he can look out for confluence and see if it constitutes a high probability setup worth trading.

I think this is a very, very bad idea. You will most likely end up running the program, finding pins and then curve fitting the location to fit the trigger. You are working totally the wrong way round. I have said this time and time again in MMT.

I am surprised that people even bother creating a pin bar spotting program. If you want to do this correctly, you would be far better off marking up your charts with the high probability turning points and then setting ALERTS when price reaches one of those levels. You can then look at the chart and see what price does, whether it makes a pin bar, inside bar, engulfing bar etc...

The location not the candle is the important factor. If you were on the phone to a professional trader and that trader cannot see a chart of where the market is but can ask just one question to you in order to determine whether to take a trade, you are very likely to hear them ask: "What price is it at?", you aren't likely to hear them say "Is there a pin bar?"

You need to read DHB's post very carefully and then read MMT in its entirety.

 

[GladiatorX]

The problem with not learning for yourself and through experience is that when someone gives you a method; if you attempt to copy it, you fail to know. -

1. What the analysis is identifying
2. Why what they are identifying in their analysis is important to S/D
3. When that information is invalidated.

Without knowing that information, your just going Long because your being told to, and going short because your told too, without really knowing why its a good investment decision = Doesn't sound like a great plan. So even if technically your analysis is identifying potentially profitable edges, in your head you may aswell be flipping a coin - because over the long term, you don't make money without having knowledge about what your doing. Talk to any profitable trader; they know their stuff.

Anyway D

 

[barjon]

...................I find it a difficult business because once I call a trade I feel like I have to answer to everyone that sees that call. Then you can sometimes begin to doubt yourself and before you know it you are losing your edge..............

Blimey, TD, you musn't let your good-heartedness affect your own trading and you must be ruthless about that - like it or not.

Anyway, it seems to me that for those of your audience who are really trying to develop their skills it's enough just to point out an emerging set-up for them to study and explore. You can do without those of your audience who just want to make a fast buck by following your calls without doing all the work.

good trading

jon

 

[swedendenmark]

Hi TD,
Thanks for your answers.

I am surprised that people even bother creating a pin bar spotting program. If you want to do this correctly, you would be far better off, marking up your charts with the high probability turning points and then setting ALERTS when price reaches one of those levels. You can then look at the chart and see what price does, whether it makes a pin bar, inside bar, engulfing bar etc...

aha, so you mean that one should work the other way round!

You need to read DHB's post very carefully and then read MMT in its entirety.

Yes, I read it now. It's human nature that we see, what we want to see. Thus, we better leave out the initial discretionary element(r/s, swing high, fibo etc) to the automated system(rather than the other way round) and when ever there is an overlap of price with this high probability zone, we get an alert. Finally, we take a decision if we trade this set up or not at ones prudence.

Thanks and regards

 

[DHB]

Hmm, I tried to reply earlier today, but my post never got through. Hopefully, this one will.

If you really want to, you can find an expert advisor for MT4 that identifies and places arrows above perceived pinbars. However, really good pinbars stand out and basically scream to be traded, and are really easy to spot, without any help of an EA. If you google search "pinbar basic advanced pdf", you can find two documents that explain very well what to look for in a good pinbar. But in the end, a pinbar is just that, a bar (or candle), and only a minor piece in the puzzle that is a high probability trade setup. Nothing more. It's all about 3 things: location, location and location, just like real estate.

Pinbars are just one of the many forms in which a reversal at a high probability location can manifest itself. Whether you see a pinbar forming depends on your data feed. You might see a pinbar, while others using different data feeds might see an engulfing bar, or perhaps see an inside bar forming. It's all the same. If you really want to make optimal use of your time, learn to recognise these high probability locations, where price has demonstrated to react in the past, i.e., support/resistance. Then when you find these locations, see if you can find additional supporting factors that increase the likeliness of another price direction change happening if price will once again get there, such as (a confluence of) fibonacci retracements, (E)MA's, and/or trendlines coming together.

Edit: LOL, my apologies for this more or less double entry. It just took a while before my earlier entry got through. Just spotted it after I had already submitted this one.