Ideas for a PHd

[Fookin]

I've recently joined a university and have been asked to start a PHd within the school of mathematics.

Can anyone give me ideas for a niche trading area (I'm new to trading) where I could kill 2 birds with one stone by doing some PHd applicable research as well as increasing my trading skills/chances of doing well trading?

Thanks,
Fookin

 

[OpenMind]

You can always specialise on your nick.



Sorry, couldn't resist.

 

[Atilla]

I've recently joined a university and have been asked to start a PHd within the school of mathematics.

Can anyone give me ideas for a niche trading area (I'm new to trading) where I could kill 2 birds with one stone by doing some PHd applicable research as well as increasing my trading skills/chances of doing well trading?

Thanks,
Fookin

I think candle stick charts may be of interest... As you may already know formations and patterns repeat them selves.

The number 3 has always been of significance to the Japanese method of trading.

You could carry out a statistical analysis of candle stick charts and see which formations of various time frames provides greatest accuracy of predicting subsequent price movements.

You'll have ample data and to carry out back testing from. From your studies and research you can emerge an expert on CS charting and statistical correlations between patterns and returns etc etc...


Also, having market open, close and range pricing stats lends it self to all kinds of computational and statistical analysis.

You could also test your theory with respect to seasons in a year and perhaps economic cycles too.

There are also different instruments and markets whilst CS charting remains the same.

Thus you can be as extensive or as detailed as you like focusing on any particular market.

Sounds like you have a very interesting period of time ahead of you and I wish you all the best in your journey of exploration and discovery.

 

[Fookin]

You can always specialise on your nick.



Sorry, couldn't resist.

Already an expert in this area

 

[Fookin]

I think candle stick charts may be of interest... As you may already know formations and patterns repeat them selves.

The number 3 has always been of significance to the Japanese method of trading.

You could carry out a statistical analysis of candle stick charts and see which formations of various time frames provides greatest accuracy of predicting subsequent price movements.

You'll have ample data and to carry out back testing from. From your studies and research you can emerge an expert on CS charting and statistical correlations between patterns and returns etc etc...


Also, having market open, close and range pricing stats lends it self to all kinds of computational and statistical analysis.

You could also test your theory with respect to seasons in a year and perhaps economic cycles too.

There are also different instruments and markets whilst CS charting remains the same.

Thus you can be as extensive or as detailed as you like focusing on any particular market.

Sounds like you have a very interesting period of time ahead of you and I wish you all the best in your journey of exploration and discovery.

Thanks Atilla, thats really useful.

 

[SAINT]

If you want to enhance your chances of employment, i'd look more to something like options pricing.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Aye. Derivatives are the lick. Just look at the numbers.

 

[arabianights]

I've recently joined a university and have been asked to start a PHd within the school of mathematics.

Can anyone give me ideas for a niche trading area (I'm new to trading) where I could kill 2 birds with one stone by doing some PHd applicable research as well as increasing my trading skills/chances of doing well trading?

Thanks,
Fookin

Try to develop a model of central banker's statements and how they effect the markets... you could be really clever and include things like tone and inflection. Link this up with some psychology phd'ers trying to discern what they really mean by every statement (sincerity etc) as well and you could have something very interesting... Crack this and people will throw money at you.

With respect to Atilla, candlesticking is a non starter... it's been done to death.

 

[GammaJammer]

Something to do with pattern recognition on various timeframe charts featuring the word 'fractal' heavily?

 

[gooseman]

in all seriousness some sort of correlation model for a portfolio of credit derivatives.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

you gonna stay rolled over and let goose give it to you like that gamma?

 

[gooseman]

my idea is unfortnately about 2/3 years too late.

 

[gooseman]

or fortunately-much easier ot make money in volatility

 

[Atilla]

Try to develop a model of central banker's statements and how they effect the markets... you could be really clever and include things like tone and inflection. Link this up with some psychology phd'ers trying to discern what they really mean by every statement (sincerity etc) as well and you could have something very interesting... Crack this and people will throw money at you.

With respect to Atilla, candlesticking is a non starter... it's been done to death.

With due respect Arabian where is the mathematics in what you are suggesting?

Likewise the same point about markets hanging on every word and body language is already over done and has seldom produced anything of substance. For example;

Measured increase in rates?
Inflationary pressures are out weighed by economic growth prospects?
He touched his left ear and blinked twice as he mentioned an expected $100bn dollar subprime hit!

I don't believe there is anything there that will tax you in your degree / PhD course.


I would add that there are many many grocery shops on the high street but only few grow up to be Tescos or Sainsburys.

Don't be discouraged by doing what somebody else has tried. Perhaps take an idea and see if you can take another path or take an idea to the next level.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

You're all talk, goose!

 

[Pat494]

Could try taking neural nets up to a new level. Only my opinion but they are not quite good enough at present. At least my little bleeders aren't !!

 

[arabianights]

With due respect Arabian where is the mathematics in what you are suggesting?

There's some seriously heavy maths involved. He has to find a way of quantifying everything before looking for correlations, for a start! And it would have to be a way of doing it real time. Neural networks and all that...

I would add that there are many many grocery shops on the high street but only few grow up to be Tescos or Sainsburys.

Don't be discouraged by doing what somebody else has tried. Perhaps take an idea and see if you can take another path or take an idea to the next level.

This though, is probably an excellent point. Do we know what the OP's goal is? To get a PHd - any PHd - or to study something they really enjoy. Or perhaps they want recognition for creating a brand new school of financial economics... we can't tell that

 

[shatztrader]

Try to develop a model of central banker's statements and how they effect the markets... you could be really clever and include things like tone and inflection. Link this up with some psychology phd'ers trying to discern what they really mean by every statement (sincerity etc) as well and you could have something very interesting... Crack this and people will throw money at you.

With respect to Atilla, candlesticking is a non starter... it's been done to death.

yeah by twisting and tweaking

 

[glyder]

I've recently joined a university and have been asked to start a PHd within the school of mathematics.

Can anyone give me ideas for a niche trading area (I'm new to trading) where I could kill 2 birds with one stone by doing some PHd applicable research as well as increasing my trading skills/chances of doing well trading?

Thanks,
Fookin

Fookin,
trading is simply about supply and demand (thats what moves prices) and the human psychology surrounding it and feeding it.
I know this is a subject done to death but economics is in crisis. It needs new ideas.
It might be time for a new look at suppply & demand. in depth.
If you dare.

 

[Fookin]

Well thanks for all the ideas guys. Lots of stuff to ponder over.