ICC Forex System testing

GMP

Established member
Sep 4, 2007
773
2
#1
My intention in this journal is to log my attempts to trade Forex markets using a strategy based largely on a couple of MT4 indicators I've developed as an adaptation of NVP's FXCorrelator http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex-strategies-systems/71854-correlation-trading-basic-ideas-strategies-304.html.

The aim is to record entries & exits (as closely as possible to) as & when I make them, and at the end of the day post charts of any markets I trade. Hopefully this will help me stick as closely as I can to the rules of the strategy I've developed ("ICC" for want of a better name - short for Intraday Currency Comparison), as well as throw some light on its weaknesses.

As such, this journal will primarily be a personal tool to help me examine this sytem, and to see if market correlation is a valid tool to use on such a short time-frame. I don't have any Holy Grain secrets to share and I certainly won't be impressing anyone with my insights & knowledge. I just want an online record of trades which reflect the human elements of actual smalltime spreadbetting (such as time of day, news releases, varying personal attention, server downtime, etc.) far better than any amount of mechanical backtesting can. I'm also too prone to chopping & changing the way I approach trading, so a public journal may help me stick to one system long enough to see if it has any genuine merits.

I'm a hobbyist trader (aka amateur) so time constraints mean I won't catch every entry my system throws up, but I'll probably include all of them on any end-of-day charts for completeness (and to see what I could have won, in the immortal words of Jim Bowen). My notional trading hours are around 8.30 to 12.00 and 13.30 to 17.00 UK time, outside which I won't usually make any entries (unless I've been woken up early, or see a succession of ideal entries at 7am...). I focus mostly on the crosses between $,€,£ & Yen, use 5min charts and never leave a trade on overnight.

Obviously this is a work-in-progress and is as likely to fall flat on its face as anything else out there, so there's not alot of point making any trades based on my posts. If the system proves successful, I'll be astounded enough to think about sharing the details of it but otherwise there's not alot of point: I just want to see if it works at this stage.
 
Last edited:

GMP

Established member
Sep 4, 2007
773
2
#2
Not alot of direction this morning, despite £ & $ looking stronger than € & ¥ for much of it. Things now appear to be taking off with £ & ¥ swapping sides, and my system said sell ¥ against £+€ at 12.25, but I'm very dubious about trusting moves over lunch, so I'll see how it's panned out in just under an hour or so.
Still short €$ from 10.45 this morning, and £$ from noon (usually the latest I'll enter a morning trade).
 

GMP

Established member
Sep 4, 2007
773
2
#5
stop-loss hit on cable - out a minute early
 

GMP

Established member
Sep 4, 2007
773
2
#6
€$ signal possibly coming up.
Lunchtime Yen shorts that I didn't take would've bagged 29 pips (£¥) & 6 pips (€¥). Not sure what to make of that.
 

GMP

Established member
Sep 4, 2007
773
2
#8
2 positions open at mo' - short $¥ and long €£. I don't like trading either of these crosses, but if a system's valid, it ought to work on the trickier pairs too so you may as well include them.
 

GMP

Established member
Sep 4, 2007
773
2
#10
that's the $¥ dead for a loss of the spread only
 

GMP

Established member
Sep 4, 2007
773
2
#12
That's the €£ trade dead, also break-even less the spread.
This system has a second, riskier entry strategy, and if those two trades are anything to go by, doubling the risk by using it on €£ & $¥ isn't going to be very successful.
 

GMP

Established member
Sep 4, 2007
773
2
#15
got one last trade on here, selling $¥ in the (probably vain) hope that it'll have one more little drop down to where it was at 6am... might just be enough strength left in the Yen, but everything else looks flat