I can't seem to find a good risk/reward ratio. Please help.

[trade2finind]

What you are describing, in a nutshell, is expectancy. Which you want to be positive, and as large as possible ideally.
But your main problem with what you are going to achieve is this;

1) If you are 'scalping' your explicit and implicit transaction costs are going to be suicidally high as a proportion of your trade metrics, so the real numbers are gonna have to be far higher to compensate.

2) You are basically trading noise, and in the wider context of the markets that simply won't register in terms of smart analysis. So you're gonna find yourself caught on the wrong side of a trend far more often than is sensible, and you're gonna find the standard deviation of your returns, and with it, the confidence in your expectancy estimate is blown out the water.

As a result you're gonna p1ss your account away within a very short space of time, and the bad news is if you keep on this road there's nothing you can do about it.

So take a step back, give up the scalping and don't look at any chart shoter than say a 4h one until you have been making money 6 months say.

Genuine advice, well meaning, and sorry to be blunt it's just quicker

GJ

Thanks very much for your advice. I know that there is something wrong w/ my trading and am really trying hard to change it...but I don't know how yet.

Re charts, actually, I like looking at longer time period charts because the minute charts are too tight and confusing for me to interpret.

If you have the time, could you please see if you have any comments for my ongoing trading blog here?

 

[zupcon]

You are talking about 1 pips, 3 pips stop lost :-0 There is no such system that use 1 to 3 pips stop lost

My god, you really are as stupid as I first thought. OK then 6 pips, or 10 pips, or 12 pips or 28 pips or 1023 pips or any number you like. The principle remains the same. Fiddling about with the stop or target may increase or decrease expectancy (assuming you have an edge) but the general principle still holds that win rate will be inversely proportional to R/R.

A "Ledgendary" member with completely no understanding of expectancy. Hillarious

 

[cpngtw]

My god, you really are as stupid as I first thought. OK then 6 pips, or 10 pips, or 12 pips or 28 pips or 1023 pips or any number you like. The principle remains the same. Fiddling about with the stop or target may increase or decrease expectancy (assuming you have an edge) but the general principle still holds that win rate will be inversely proportional to R/R.

A "Ledgendary" member with completely no understanding of expectancy. Hillarious

thanks for the compliment, you must be looking at yourself in the mirror

 

[cpngtw]

All I said in this thread is this, the formula that Pedro posted here

%win rate = (100 / (profit ticks + stop loss ticks)) x stop loss ticks

is not correct, regardless of random or not random system, regardless of R/R

If you disagree. that's your choice

 

[zupcon]

I give up. I have lost the will to live :-(

 

[cpngtw]

I give up. I have lost the will to live :-(

OK go ahead and don't live, will not stop you

 

[zupcon]

appreciated

 

[pedro01]

All I said in this thread is this, the formula that Pedro posted here

%win rate = (100 / (profit ticks + stop loss ticks)) x stop loss ticks

is not correct, regardless of random or not random system, regardless of R/R

If you disagree. that's your choice

Look retard- I have PROVED it to be correct.

Now prove it not correct. Show me a random system that doesn't return a win rate directly related to the stop loss & target as per my equation.

Just saying it doesn't work repeatedly is retarded, primary school argumentation.

Next you'll be telling me your dad's a policeman or that your brother is coming round to duff me up.

 

[cpngtw]

Look retard- I have PROVED it to be correct.

Now prove it not correct. Show me a random system that doesn't return a win rate directly related to the stop loss & target as per my equation.

Just saying it doesn't work repeatedly is retarded, primary school argumentation.

Next you'll be telling me your dad's a policeman or that your brother is coming round to duff me up.

Thanks for the comment! That method of proving that you had "prove" nothing! try back test all the majors with R ranging from 15 to 60 to 100 and see what happens

Enough already kids

 

[zupcon]

Can you repeat that it english ?

 

[pedro01]

Thanks for the comment! That method of proving that you had "prove" nothing! try back test all the majors with R ranging from 15 to 60 to 100 and see what happens

Enough already kids

I have provided 3 cases where the entry was random. In all 3 cases the results were in line with what I stated would happen.

On the other hand, all you have provided is evidence of dyslexia.

Let's put it like this. If you can find a RANDOM system where you can adjust the R:R ratio to such an extent that it is profitable over time, across multiple symbols, then you sir, will be a zillionaire as you will have discovered the holy grail.

Also - if you can find a RANDOM system where playing with the R:R DOES NOT impact the win rate, you will also have found the holy grail

As for me proving your grail doesn't exist. No need.

 

[cpngtw]

You are the one to prove your formula, not me

 

[pedro01]

CP - it is quite sad that you use this forum to play silly games, especially when you have knowledgeable people genuinely trying to help out new traders.

You have turned what could have been a simple demonstration of how to understand the difference between randomness and edge into a playground level discussion.

Let's see if you can still argue against what I am saying by answering the following and actually bring some BRAINS into this discussion.

1) If you toss a coin at 10:30 every day, enter long on heads, short on tails. Enter the E-mini S&P with a 5 point stop & 5 point target. What will the win rate be ?

2) If you roll a dice at 10:30 every day, enter long on 1 & 4, short on 2,3,5,6, with a 5 point stop & 5 point target. What will the win rate be ?

3) If you toss a coin at 10:30 every day, enter long on heads, short on tails. Enter the E-mini S&P with a 2 point stop & 4 point target. What will the win rate be ?

You can even show how you calculated it.

 

[cpngtw]

Pedro and your admirers )), I just simply state the true, and the true is win rate is not what you try to formulated here

%win rate = (100 / (profit ticks + stop loss ticks)) x stop loss ticks​

That's simple.

If you want to prove it, then prove it with a wide range of data, not your tailored made data, Even so, it's still not correct because the basic you based on is flaw

And didn't I said if you didn't agree with me, then that was your choice

 

[zupcon]

what an ignorant numpty

 

[cpngtw]

are you saying about yourself?

 

[pedro01]

Pedro and your admirers )), I just simply state the true, and the true is win rate is not what you try to formulated here

%win rate = (100 / (profit ticks + stop loss ticks)) x stop loss ticks​

That's simple.

If you want to prove it, then prove it with a wide range of data, not your tailored made data, Even so, it's still not correct because the basic you based on is flaw

And didn't I said if you didn't agree with me, then that was your choice

LMAO @ 'tailor made' data - the past 2 years S&P e-mini is 'tailor made' is it !!!

Tell you what - you give me a symbol & a timeframe & i'll run the reports on that going backwards from today.

BUT only if you answer the questions as follows...

1) If you toss a coin at 10:30 every day, enter long on heads, short on tails. Enter the E-mini S&P with a 5 point stop & 5 point target. What will the win rate be ?

2) If you roll a dice at 10:30 every day, enter long on 1 & 4, short on 2,3,5,6, with a 5 point stop & 5 point target. What will the win rate be ?

3) If you toss a coin at 10:30 every day, enter long on heads, short on tails. Enter the E-mini S&P with a 2 point stop & 4 point target. What will the win rate be ?

Are you up to the challenge ?

 

[zupcon]

Surely he knows one other vendor..whoops I mean member on that god forsaken thread of their who can give him a clue

 

[pedro01]

good grief - don't tell me this CP is a vendor ????

 

[zupcon]

it would be a very limited market as there's practically noone who knows less than he does

It wouldnt surprise me if he asks if the times are in GMT or what sort of coin he should toss !