How To Think Correctly

[rossored]

enough already, all of you ( well, some of you - you know who you are)

I am sick to death of moderating your insults and comebacks, as are the other mods. I am also fed up with receiving reported posts, and this thread must be close to the all-time record for that.

So, the very next person who kicks off after this post with an insult is going to be banned for 24 hours. No more warning or pussyfooting about. ]If you want to slag each other off, do it via PM or not at all. The same goes for anyone who replies to this post with a smart alec comment.

Just in case anyone is wondering, the term 'WTF' will count as an insult, as will asterix marks that you put into place.

It is Xmas (nearly) - I/we have better things to do.

You have all been warned.

 

[neil]

Mistakes - he made a few

He was a top thinker/procratinator but was not a "do-er," so he thinks and dreams and sings while lesser beings get their hands dirty in the trading arena, thinking less but earning more :cheesy:


http://www.allfunnystuff.com/content.php?choice=prev&iid=402&cid=32

 

[CYOF]

It isn't, you know, if it's to be run as a business. Have a shop full of winter coats when winter does not come and you'll still worry about the overdraught. In fact, there's a point. Share trading can be done without the need of loaned money. Business, often cannot run without it.

I'd say that, as I have run more than one business in a lifetime, that has stood me in good stead, as far as assessing risk is concerned and trading shares is one commodity where the trader can control the amount he is prepared to lose.

Split

Of course it is different - in many, many, many ways.

But this is the big problem, most think that it is not different - most THINK the same way about trading as they do about routine events - big mistake - but then again - with all the TEXTBOOK TRADERS out there, is it no wonder!

 

[Profitaker]

rossered - noted

CYOF

Ah right, so you think describing price action after the event forcasts the future ?

Tell you what...I I post up a chart, will you tell us where the price will be today ? Tomorrow ? next week / month ? That should be good for a laugh

 

[CYOF]

rossered - noted

CYOF

Ah right, so you think describing price action after the event forcasts the future ?

Tell you what...I I post up a chart, will you tell us where the price will be today ? Tomorrow ? next week / month ? That should be good for a laugh

Fine - but I may need to get some help with the TEXTBOOK TRADER forecasts

 

[Profitaker]

Here ya go CYOF

[/QUOTE]

The underlying has a volatility of 12%. Now, perhaps you could tell us where the price will be in 1 / 5 / 20 / 252 days time. You may consult bertie

 

[CYOF]

Here ya go CYOF

The underlying has a volatility of 12%. Now, perhaps you could tell us where the price will be in 1 / 5 / 20 / 252 days time. You may consult bertie [/QUOTE]

Hmmm, Excel I see!

This may require some very detailed analysis and overlaying with numereous projection aids, intricate FORECASTING will indeed be required - do you mind if I solicit the help of the Real Experts in this field?

Let me start to get the ball rolling:

I Day > ADX, AMA Binary Wave, Aroon Oscillator, Aroon Up / Down, Average True Range

5 Days> BAV Band, Bollinger Bandwidth, Bresset DSS, CCI, CCI Histogram, Center of Gravity,

20 Days> Chailken Money flow, Chailken Oscillator, Chandle Momentum Oscillator,

252 Days> Choppiness Index, Detrend Oscillator, Directional Movement, ECO, Efficiency Ratio,
Elder Force Index, Elder Ray, Elliot Osciallator, Fast Stoch,

I think that will do for now - Socrtares, do you want to add anything before we summon the EXPERTS to assist us with our FORECASTING.

We may have to get some 40" Plasma screens set up - what do you think?

 

[Profitaker]

In other words you're completely clueless where the price will be in 1 / 5 / 20 / 252 days time, aren't you ?

 

[Splitlink]

rossered - noted

CYOF

Ah right, so you think describing price action after the event forcasts the future ?

Tell you what...I I post up a chart, will you tell us where the price will be today ? Tomorrow ? next week / month ? That should be good for a laugh

All businesses are different in many ways, as you say, but decision taking is still a problem common to all. A careful assessment of risk is essential in all of them. Take a scan of the EPS growth of UK stocks and you will see those that have made good profits, those with mediocre profits and those with losses. All of these profits are based on a good or bad business decision at some point, even if it is picking a useless CEO.

Even UK PLC is in Iraq because of a bad decision and if one is a soldier there, then he may feel that he made a bad decision in joining the army, in the first place.

Life is like that and I can go through mine, as we all can, and spot what we did right and what went wrong. My share trading centres around "How much can I lose". In one minute, yesterday the FT Index dropped 18 points. That was all the mornings gains gone, big deal, but what about the investors who had their money in Enron? A lifetime's savings, some of them.

So, I'm not too much in favour of the argument that trading is a gambler's environment necesarily,anymore than anywhere else. In fact, it can be less so.

This post was meant to answer CYOF, Profittaker, although I guess it will get there!

Split

 

[CYOF]

In other words you're completely clueless where the price will be in 1 / 5 / 20 / 252 days time, aren't you ?

Not at all - I have great confidence in the TEXTBOOK TRADERS and I am sure that the questions can be answered.

All will be revealed - in about - 1.5 hrs from now, or maybe 2, but it will not be much longer than that

 

[firewalker99]

Fine - but I may need to get some help with the TEXTBOOK TRADER forecasts

I don't believe the textbook traders do much 'forecasting'.
Instead they have a plan for whichever scenario plays out so they can act.
Act, instead of wonder why their forecast didn't turn out.

 

[SOCRATES]

The underlying has a volatility of 12%. Now, perhaps you could tell us where the price will be in 1 / 5 / 20 / 252 days time. You may consult bertie

Hmmm, Excel I see!

This may require some very detailed analysis and overlaying with numereous projection aids, intricate FORECASTING will indeed be required - do you mind if I solicit the help of the Real Experts in this field?

Let me start to get the ball rolling:

I Day > ADX, AMA Binary Wave, Aroon Oscillator, Aroon Up / Down, Average True Range

5 Days> BAV Band, Bollinger Bandwidth, Bresset DSS, CCI, CCI Histogram, Center of Gravity,

20 Days> Chailken Money flow, Chailken Oscillator, Chandle Momentum Oscillator,

252 Days> Choppiness Index, Detrend Oscillator, Directional Movement, ECO, Efficiency Ratio,
Elder Force Index, Elder Ray, Elliot Osciallator, Fast Stoch,

I think that will do for now - Socrtares, do you want to add anything before we summon the EXPERTS to assist us with our FORECASTING.

We may have to get some 40" Plasma screens set up - what do you think?[/QUOTE]

Actually...no...because it looks like a picture of the track of two raindrops turned over 90 degrees ...and I am sure both you and I have better things to do with our time than get embroiled in puerile nonsense.

 

[SOCRATES]

I don't believe the textbook traders do much 'forecasting'.
Instead they have a plan for whichever scenario plays out so they can act.
Act, instead of wonder why their forecast didn't turn out.

Yes, quite...that is why they are textbook traders.

 

[CYOF]

Hmmm, Excel I see!

This may require some very detailed analysis and overlaying with numereous projection aids, intricate FORECASTING will indeed be required - do you mind if I solicit the help of the Real Experts in this field?

Let me start to get the ball rolling:

I Day > ADX, AMA Binary Wave, Aroon Oscillator, Aroon Up / Down, Average True Range

5 Days> BAV Band, Bollinger Bandwidth, Bresset DSS, CCI, CCI Histogram, Center of Gravity,

20 Days> Chailken Money flow, Chailken Oscillator, Chandle Momentum Oscillator,

252 Days> Choppiness Index, Detrend Oscillator, Directional Movement, ECO, Efficiency Ratio,
Elder Force Index, Elder Ray, Elliot Osciallator, Fast Stoch,

I think that will do for now - Socrtares, do you want to add anything before we summon the EXPERTS to assist us with our FORECASTING.

We may have to get some 40" Plasma screens set up - what do you think?

Actually...no...because it looks like a picture of the track of two raindrops turned over 90 degrees ...and I am sure both you and I have better things to do with our time than get embroiled in puerile nonsense. [/QUOTE]

Fine, we shall then leave it to the EXPERTS to enlighten those that want to learn the ways of the TEXTBOOK TRADERS.

 

[SOCRATES]

Actually...no...because it looks like a picture of the track of two raindrops turned over 90 degrees ...and I am sure both you and I have better things to do with our time than get embroiled in puerile nonsense.

Fine, we shall then leave it to the EXPERTS to enlighten those that want to learn the ways of the TEXTBOOK TRADERS.

[/QUOTE]
Yes, exactly each to his own.

 

[dbphoenix]

Trading is not the same as gambling - gambling is much easier, due to the fact that you can only loose what you have already bet

I disagree. Trading and gambling are two sides of the same coin. A realisation of this basic fact is essential to success, IMHO.

To a large extent, you're right, PT, but it depends on what type of "gambling" you're referring to. You earlier made a distinction between poker on the one hand and games against the house on the other (with a small exception for blackjack), and trading is very much like poker. However, I'm assuming that you're not including poker in your above comment.

As for not being able to lose more than one has "bet", there's always margin, commissions, slippage . . .

Db

 

[SOCRATES]

Actually, while we are at it....I have posted this before, but I am posting it now because it is relevant, but only relevant to people with a higher level of awareness,,,

When I was a child...I was reading a comic....and in this comic...a conversation was taking place between an alligator and a tortoise...the alligator on the right...and the tortoise on the left....and the alligator said to the tortoise....and outlined by a speech bubble..."My mother says, if it is in a book, Its true".....now this from the point of view of a child seemed a plausible statement...so I showed it to my mother who was horrified and went on to explain it may or may not be valid and all the reasons for and against...but...nevertheless...it took me some time and a great deal of effort tow work out why...in the first place...such a statement would be inserted in a comic...now the tortoise did not say anything...and in the tortoise's ...thought bubble was an exclamation mark and a question mark, that's all....but conventionally in cartooning and in illustration...the initiator of the conversation is ALWAYS depicted on the LEFT SIDE and the respondent ALWAYS on the RIGHT....so I leave you all to consider this more deeply and to properly reflect....and you will find....yet again...thought is everything and forecasting is a skill.

 

[dbphoenix]

Fine, we shall then leave it to the experts to enlighten those that want to learn the ways of the textbook traders.

If the "textbook trader" has a consistently profitable strategy and follows it, he is guaranteed to make money. However, those who wish to be enlightened would have to read. This presents those who are anti-textbook with a problem.

Db

 

[SOCRATES]

NO...emphatically NO....those who wish to be enlightened have to go beyond reading...which is what the majority are unable and unwilling to do.

 

[Splitlink]

To a large extent, you're right, PT, but it depends on what type of "gambling" you're referring to. You earlier made a distinction between poker on the one hand and games against the house on the other (with a small exception for blackjack), and trading is very much like poker. However, I'm assuming that you're not including poker in your above comment.

As for not being able to lose more than one has "bet", there's always margin, commissions, slippage . . .

Db

LOL So you have decided to to call yourself a vendor? The flak getting heavy?

Split