How do I maximize profits from being right 80%+ of the time?

Uppercut

Junior member
13 2
I would stick with trading the EUR/USD. In three years time you will be the most powerful man in the universe.
You will own everything and everyone, and you will be worshipped like a god. Good work son.
 

nbalance

Newbie
6 0
Why bother? If you're averaging 3% a day you'll be a multi-millionaire before the years out ::whistling.
Well the returns are very good, but time is of the essence so the highest the returns possible are preferred. It seems like I may be able to make at least double that with naked calls and puts on active stocks, but it doesn't seem to scale up as well to big money since the liquidity is much lower.
 

BeginnerJoe

Senior member
3,329 350
Well the returns are very good, but time is of the essence so the highest the returns possible are preferred. It seems like I may be able to make at least double that with naked calls and puts on active stocks, but it doesn't seem to scale up as well to big money since the liquidity is much lower.
For big players you need to get into bonds. Judging by your size, I recommend bonds for the G8 countries. The other countries would be a bit too small for what you need to do. Consider contacting the Chinese embassy and do them a deal to off load their dollar holdings. They need someone big to take it off their hands.

By the way, why are you in a hurry ? You need the money for what ?
 
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TheBramble

Legendary member
8,395 1,170
I have been able to consistently predict stock and currency movements with an 80% - 90%+ accuracy for several years now.
Here's a tip if you're going to scam...

When anyone quotes a range (as in your 80-90%) it means they don't have a specific figure. Ooops.

If you really had 'accuracy for several years' you would obviously have come up with a single figure, and preferably apparently random such as 83.43% or 86.57% - nothing too round if you get my gist.

Otherwise it's fairly obvious it's total BS.

Thanks so much right back at you.
 

wackypete2

Legendary member
10,229 2,051
I am able to predict both intraday and multi-day price movements for any high volume stock (i.e. goog, aapl, c, etc) or currency simply by looking at the chart and visualizing where the chart is going to move in my head. I don't use any technical indicators or studies as I find that just creates more noise in my head and distracts me from seeing what is next.
Are you related to ScepterMT?

Peter
 

DionysusToast

Legendary member
5,963 1,498
Let's presume for a minute this isn't a scam.

80-90% without actually trading is quite possible. Confirmation bias can boost anybodies numbers but the key is

"Do the 80-90% winners make more than the 10-20% losers?"

So -first thing to do in my opinion.

1 - For all winners - figure out the maximum adverse excursion as well as the actual target you would have taken.
2 - For all losers - figure out the point at which you'd have gotten out.

If at this point winners < losers -well, you just learnt that 90% doesn't equal profit.

If not - half the winners & double the losers. This will show you the likely results when you trade with real money for the first time.
 

new_trader

Legendary member
6,270 1,289
I am able to predict both intraday and multi-day price movements for any high volume stock (i.e. goog, aapl, c, etc) or currency simply by looking at the chart and visualizing where the chart is going to move in my head.
What an amazing coincidence. I can do the same thing with every attractive woman I see. The way she moves, the way she pleases me, her obedience...:cheesy:

Trading with real money isn't what you imagine it to be.
 

6am

Active member
154 11
When anyone quotes a range (as in your 80-90%) it means they don't have a specific figure. Ooops.

If you really had 'accuracy for several years' you would obviously have come up with a single figure, and preferably apparently random such as 83.43% or 86.57% - nothing too round if you get my gist.
Why? We do not have information about the number of predictions. The average number will change with each next prediction. I believe it is OK to specify the range.
 

anley

Senior member
2,730 229
If you're making 3% a day then why do you need to 'maximise' your gains? Just keep compounding the 3%.

As ever though, watch out for the big loss, because it's coming.......
 

new_trader

Legendary member
6,270 1,289
Why? We do not have information about the number of predictions. The average number will change with each next prediction. I believe it is OK to specify the range.
The % is an academic issue because anybody who has traded real money knows there is a massive chasm between knowing what to do and actually doing it. Imagining what the market will do next and being right 80% of the time isn't a big deal when you have lost no money on the 20% of times you were wrong.

Being wrong 3 or 4 times in a row and still having the courage to bet money on your figuring is a different ball game.
 
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TheBramble

Legendary member
8,395 1,170
Originally Posted by TheBramble said:
When anyone quotes a range (as in your 80-90%) it means they don't have a specific figure. Ooops.

If you really had 'accuracy for several years' you would obviously have come up with a single figure, and preferably apparently random such as 83.43% or 86.57% - nothing too round if you get my gist.
Why? We do not have information about the number of predictions. The average number will change with each next prediction. I believe it is OK to specify the range.
What are you talking about?

If someone says they have been running s system for X period of time they have specific empirical data. Number of trades taken. Number of winners. Number of losers. Average profit from winning trades. Average loss on losing trades. Drawdown. There’s nothing grey about historical performance data – it’s THERE (or it isn’t).

As for numbers changing with each prediction – words almost fail me. Let’s take a view that predictions actually result in an action of some form being taken i.e. a trade. The numbers WILL change with each trade taken (albeit change rather more slowly as the size of the dataset increases), but you’re still left after every trade with the an immutable set of data. You don’t sum up all your wining and losing trades and say “It’s somewhere between 80-90% successful” unless you’re a complete BS-er. You’d say something like “86,34% of my trades are profitable”. Precision.

So, thank you for sharing your belief that it’s OK to be imprecise, but I’ll stick to the real world of accuracy and specificity.
 

robster970

Veteren member
4,566 1,389
This guys doesn't understand the law of large numbers TB otherwise it would be 83.76% based upon a sample size of yada yada, etc

Just more horsesh1t IMO
 

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