Being Right = Winning?

Triggerfish

Triggerfish

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If you are wrong you are unlikely to win.....as this provokes emotions and reactions.....unless you turn a wrong decision into a right one over time.....meaning more stress and emotions.....should it turn out to be right, it means your initial timing is out!.....which confirms you were wrong in the first place!

You only get paid for being right, you don't get paid for being wrong.....so being right is crucial.

Being right therefore is the most important element......Being right allows one to be on the path towards success but that right depends on how right you are.....The conviction you have.....The ability to be "right consistently" is the key to long term success.....Having that "conviction" allows one to increase a higher percentage to the trade!

Thoughts?
 
The guy on the other side of your trade must be an idiot. Despite all the money, all the experience, all the equipment, all the data, and everything else he has at his disposal, his success and failure depends on whether you are right. It's almost as if he looses 95%, or 99.5% of the time.
 
What do you mean by being right ?
Many people who make money tend to have more losing trades than winning trades. Assuming their objective is to make a profit then they are doing the right thing. If their objective is to increase win rate they are doing the wrong thing

Wrong and right are context sensitive and can only be evaluated in regards to whatever objective you are trying to achieve. If you meet that objective its right and if you don't, its wrong

Your equation is the equivalent of saying dog collars = wine glasses. Maybe it makes sense to someone and maybe it doesn't. There's too much background and context missing to make any sort of judgement or comment
 
the hare said:
What do you mean by being right ?
Many people who make money tend to have more losing trades than winning trades. Assuming their objective is to make a profit then they are doing the right thing. If their objective is to increase win rate they are doing the wrong thing

Wrong and right are context sensitive and can only be evaluated in regards to whatever objective you are trying to achieve. If you meet that objective its right and if you don't, its wrong

Your equation is the equivalent of saying dog collars = wine glasses. Maybe it makes sense to someone and maybe it doesn't. There's too much background and context missing to make any sort of judgement or comment
Click to expand...

These many people are presumably coin merchants , and how many do you know or hang around with?How many dog collars are you on?Do you know what the O P is drinking?
 
You could be right according to your trading plan, but that may not always be a profitable trade. This should not effect your emotions or psyche because you have already allowed for and expect to face these conditions.
 
Triggerfish said:
If you are wrong you are unlikely to win.....as this provokes emotions and reactions.....unless you turn a wrong decision into a right one over time.....meaning more stress and emotions.....should it turn out to be right, it means your initial timing is out!.....which confirms you were wrong in the first place!

You only get paid for being right, you don't get paid for being wrong.....so being right is crucial.

Being right therefore is the most important element......Being right allows one to be on the path towards success but that right depends on how right you are.....The conviction you have.....The ability to be "right consistently" is the key to long term success.....Having that "conviction" allows one to increase a higher percentage to the trade!

Thoughts?
Click to expand...

sorry dude.....I have a headache after reading this .....;)
 
Triggerfish said:
If you are wrong you are unlikely to win.....as this provokes emotions and reactions.....unless you turn a wrong decision into a right one over time.....meaning more stress and emotions.....should it turn out to be right, it means your initial timing is out!.....which confirms you were wrong in the first place!

You only get paid for being right, you don't get paid for being wrong.....so being right is crucial.

Being right therefore is the most important element......Being right allows one to be on the path towards success but that right depends on how right you are.....The conviction you have.....The ability to be "right consistently" is the key to long term success.....Having that "conviction" allows one to increase a higher percentage to the trade!

Thoughts?
Click to expand...


you have started 5 threads , that is a higher hit rate than the Hare

Approaching the Market: Prediction vs. Anticipation - Trader Kingdom
 
Triggerfish said:
If you are wrong you are unlikely to win.....as this provokes emotions and reactions.....unless you turn a wrong decision into a right one over time.....meaning more stress and emotions.....should it turn out to be right, it means your initial timing is out!.....which confirms you were wrong in the first place!

You only get paid for being right, you don't get paid for being wrong.....so being right is crucial.

Being right therefore is the most important element......Being right allows one to be on the path towards success but that right depends on how right you are.....The conviction you have.....The ability to be "right consistently" is the key to long term success.....Having that "conviction" allows one to increase a higher percentage to the trade!

Thoughts?
Click to expand...

You only have to be right 50 % of the time , like a coin toss.The profitable traders run their profits and cut their losses , so their profits are bigger and losses small.

If you trade with longer time frame trends , your hit rate increases to 60 % .

Trading Systems And Positive Expectancy - Christos Efthymiou - Seeking Alpha
 
Triggerfish said:
You only get paid for being right, you don't get paid for being wrong.....so being right is crucial
Click to expand...

Weathermen get paid good and they are often wrong. As an analogy I'd put them in the 95% category.

Peter
 
Triggerfish said:
..............Being right therefore is the most important element......
Click to expand...

I'll just repeat what I said on the other thread. All we do is assume price will move favourably. If it does we take advantage from it, if it doesn't we limit the disadvantage. It's not a matter of being right or wrong, it is a matter of managing outcomes.

Clearly, being "right" is important, but what does that mean? That price sets off in the favourable direction? That it gets to target without setback? That it finishes up with a profit after a long period of being in a loss of ten times that profit? Or what?
 
15 min tlb: post #10:
Agree with what you say on the 50%, run profits and cut losses.
50% is just a number, surely you would agree with me that the better traders have better rates, in fact high into 70%+.....is it not all about efficiency of being right?

Wackypete2: post #11:
Interesting analogy.....remember, the weatherman is in a paid job so he will be paid for being in the job, he does not get paid for being right!
Therefore it is not directly comparable to trading.....now since you have mentioned it and you already know that he belongs to the 95% club, I wonder if you can see this being an advantage to your trading?
You just need to work out when he says sunny, does it mean markets are rising?...and raining means markets are falling?...also cloudy means sideways?.....now if you already "know" that you are "RIGHT" that he is 95% wrong, then you can take advantage of this...can you not?.....by taking the opposite?.....I hope this is not your trading method?

On another note under your post #12:
BJ actually suprised me because he is so far the only one who has actually answered the question correctly!.....so he is a wise person indeed!
The question is, do you understand what he has written?

Hi barjon:
You mentioned the word "assume".....yes, that would be correct but is that not the same as holding a view that the price will head in a particular direction? Am sure you will agree with me that the word "assume" would only exist if the trader does not know the sense of direction. Now on the other side, if that trader knows what the price will do, he can therefore increase his stakes on the trade so he can benefit more from it.....agree?.....Now I know what you are saying because you are only seeing a coin from one side and you do not see the other side, this is normal because no one can see two sides of the coin....can they?.....the only way to do this is to switch positions or to flip the coin 180 degrees.....yes?
Now although you are right when you say "assume" but equally true, the opposite to that is "know".....now, here is the most amazing bit:
Just because you are standing on one side looking at a coin which shows heads and you cannot see the tails.....does that mean there is no tails on this coin?
Now is it not the case where if people hold such a view that there is only head and no tails, their view becomes a mental block?.....do you see what I mean here?
 
Last edited:
Lulz 'o Meter is pegged.
The OP has not learned a single thing from any posts here or in his other threads....
He believes Joe has correctly answered his question (with an incorrect statement), but the only question I see in the original post is "Thoughts?"

bbmac made an excellent post about why traders lose:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-psychology/45686-trading-psychology-2.html#post2077786

Normally I would agree, but my view has recently changed based on recent threads and posts. My reasons why most traders lose is now condensed to this:
1. Lack of intelligence

Peter
 
Triggerfish said:
15 min tlb: post #10:
Agree with what you say on the 50%, run profits and cut losses.
50% is just a number, surely you would agree with me that the better traders have better rates, in fact high into 70%+.....is it not all about efficiency of being right?

Wackypete2: post #11:
Interesting analogy.....remember, the weatherman is in a paid job so he will be paid for being in the job, he does not get paid for being right!
Therefore it is not directly comparable to trading.....now since you have mentioned it and you already know that he belongs to the 95% club, I wonder if you can see this being an advantage to your trading?
You just need to work out when he says sunny, does it mean markets are rising?...and raining means markets are falling?...also cloudy means sideways?.....now if you already "know" that you are "RIGHT" that he is 95% wrong, then you can take advantage of this...can you not?.....by taking the opposite?.....I hope this is not your trading method?

On another note under your post #12:
BJ actually suprised me because he is so far the only one who has actually answered the question correctly!.....so he is a wise person indeed!
The question is, do you understand what he has written?

Hi barjon:
You mentioned the word "assume".....yes, that would be correct but is that not the same as holding a view that the price will head in a particular direction? Am sure you will agree with me that the word "assume" would only exist if the trader does not know the sense of direction. Now on the other side, if that trader knows what the price will do, he can therefore increase his stakes on the trade so he can benefit more from it.....agree?.....Now I know what you are saying because you are only seeing a coin from one side and you do not see the other side, this is normal because no one can see two sides of the coin....can they?.....the only way to do this is to switch positions or to flip the coin 180 degrees.....yes?
Now although you are right when you say "assume" but equally true, the opposite to that is "know".....now, here is the most amazing bit:
Just because you are standing on one side looking at a coin which shows heads and you cannot see the tails.....does that mean there is no tails on this coin?
Now is it not the case where if people hold such a view that there is only head and no tails, their view becomes a mental block?.....do you see what I mean here?
Click to expand...

No, I don't see what you mean.
 
Triggerfish said:
............You mentioned the word "assume".....yes, that would be correct but is that not the same as holding a view that the price will head in a particular direction? .........
Click to expand...

trig

More or less, but the semantics of language don't really matter. The point is that your set-up gives you an entry point and an expectation of price direction which may, or may not, transpire. No-one can know for certain, however strongly you may "hold a view". And the more strongly you "hold the view", the more likely you are to be blinded to what is actually happening.

In any event, what puts bread on the table is how you manage things from there - taking the advantage you need when it moves favourably and limiting the disadvantage when it doesn't. Get that wrong and you're sunk.
 
Op's attitude to trading is typical of why so many people fail at trading.

The take each trade personally and expect them all to win and often fight the losing position holding on or adding to it in order to make a profit out of it and prove they were right, thus inflating their ego and delusion.

"Being right" is the wrong way to go about things. Being profitable is all that matters, and you can be wrong most of the time and still be profitable.

Trading is a numbers game, some you win, some you lose, individual trades don't matter. Don't take them personally - it's the net result over a larger number of trades that does matter. Learn to take losses and don't be afraid to take a loss on a bad trade.

Try approaching your strategy from the "being wrong" angle, knowing that sometimes, perhaps more often than not you'll get lucky and take home some money and work out your stops and limits from that angle.
 
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