The "guy" on the other side of your trade has a known win rate of 99.5%. You need to scale back your conviction to 0.5% confidence level. Otherwise, the math just wouldn't add up.
fftopic: BeginnerJoe, I expected a lot better from you, even though your comments were "off-topic" as the title is about being right and not about being wrong.....a wee bit negative are you not?
The figure you presented is the business relationship between the "guy" and his customers(traders).....therefore has no bearing on the trader because being right allows the trader to be on the right side.....as the market is always right!
The only reason the maths don't add up is because of your own fabrication and illusions.