# Being Right = Winning?

#### Triggerfish

##### Active member
229 14
The "guy" on the other side of your trade has a known win rate of 99.5%. You need to scale back your conviction to 0.5% confidence level. Otherwise, the math just wouldn't add up.

fftopic: BeginnerJoe, I expected a lot better from you, even though your comments were "off-topic" as the title is about being right and not about being wrong.....a wee bit negative are you not?
The figure you presented is the business relationship between the "guy" and his customers(traders).....therefore has no bearing on the trader because being right allows the trader to be on the right side.....as the market is always right!

The only reason the maths don't add up is because of your own fabrication and illusions.

#### Triggerfish

##### Active member
229 14
No - not will go - beacuse no one knows for certain what will happen next - none of us can predict- but his analysis may tell him this is the greater probability. And-yes he should ' lump on ' consistent with his money management rules that has been optimised for het edge he trades - If it is ' top rated ' set-up re that edge.

Sorry bbmac, you know am going disagree with you again on the underlined bit but that is because we see opposite sides.....I used to think like you but not anymore.

Interesting when you say "lump on".....don't know if you play poker at all, you know when you are on the table, with the cards you have combined with all the cards on the table, the river.....you just have that knowing that no matter what happens, you "KNOW" you are going to win this hand so you go "all in".....is this a similar definition of your "lump on"?

And what is your definition by "top rated"?

#### Shakone

##### Senior member
2,458 665
Sorry bbmac, you know am going disagree with you again on the underlined bit but that is because we see opposite sides.....I used to think like you but not anymore.

Interesting when you say "lump on".....don't know if you play poker at all, you know when you are on the table, with the cards you have combined with all the cards on the table, the river.....you just have that knowing that no matter what happens, you "KNOW" you are going to win this hand so you go "all in".....is this a similar definition of your "lump on"?

And what is your definition by "top rated"?

In cards it can be certain that you win, you can KNOW. In trading it's not so clear cut.

So you say you know things about price. For what period of time. 5 mins? An hour? A day?

If you know over that time period, then you know the high and low over that time period, right? So just state what the high and low will be over a time period, and do it 10-15 times to demonstrate, and then it will be clear. Looking forward to it.

#### Brumby

##### Established member
593 139
being right allows the trader to be on the right side.....as the market is always right!

I would like to be on the right side as you described. I just need you to tell me the trade scenario that tells me that I know I am on the right side before I take the trade. This will be the third time I am asking you this question. You have so far avoided answering it.

#### the hare

##### Senior member
2,949 1,283
Maybe you should teach him some coin tossing. That should bring his win rate up in no time.

Not necessarily

#### bbmac

##### Veteren member
3,584 788
Hi

I don't play poker. I will answer your questions as below:

When I say ' lump on ' - I mean that not all set-ups that make up an edge may be equal. For eg I have some set-ups that make up my edge that have a historically higher strike rate than others - so does it make sense for me to risk the same amount on all set-ups given this ? - No of course not - so the risk is increased on higher strike rate set-ups. Even in poker I don't accept that the outcome is absolutekly 100% guaranteed so even ' lumping on ' the higher strike rate set-ups doesn't mean I know the outcome in advance - I am still playing the edge as I have previously described.

By ' top rated ' - I mean per the paragraph above - the set-ups that are part of my own trading edge that have exhibited the highest strike rate over the total sample I have stats for. The methodology centrral to my edge rates each set-up that devlops to a given constant rule set/criteria - and the set-up achieves one of 4 ratinngs that determines the risk i use for each set-up that is traded. The top rated set-ups are those that have the highest historical strike rate and other criteria that I am unable to discuss on an open forum as the edge is proprietary.

G/L

Sorry bbmac, you know am going disagree with you again on the underlined bit but that is because we see opposite sides.....I used to think like you but not anymore.

Interesting when you say "lump on".....don't know if you play poker at all, you know when you are on the table, with the cards you have combined with all the cards on the table, the river.....you just have that knowing that no matter what happens, you "KNOW" you are going to win this hand so you go "all in".....is this a similar definition of your "lump on"?

And what is your definition by "top rated"?

#### BeginnerJoe

##### Senior member
3,329 350
fftopic: BeginnerJoe, I expected a lot better from you, even though your comments were "off-topic" as the title is about being right and not about being wrong.....a wee bit negative are you not?
The figure you presented is the business relationship between the "guy" and his customers(traders).....therefore has no bearing on the trader because being right allows the trader to be on the right side.....as the market is always right!

The only reason the maths don't add up is because of your own fabrication and illusions.

You have demonstrated no evidence of being right, or on the right side. Until these are proven, you are quite possibly wrong and therefore quite possibly off-topic. Since the market and those who can control the market are always right, you cannot be right because you are not the market nor can you control the market. The probability of your successfully coat-tailing the market or those who control the market is only 0.5% of the time. So we can safely conclude your are off topic most of the time in this thread.

10,229 2,055
More hot air...

#### 15 min tlb

##### Senior member
2,057 98
If you are wrong you are unlikely to win.....as this provokes emotions and reactions.....unless you turn a wrong decision into a right one over time.....meaning more stress and emotions.....should it turn out to be right, it means your initial timing is out!.....which confirms you were wrong in the first place!

You only get paid for being right, you don't get paid for being wrong.....so being right is crucial.

Being right therefore is the most important element......Being right allows one to be on the path towards success but that right depends on how right you are.....The conviction you have.....The ability to be "right consistently" is the key to long term success.....Having that "conviction" allows one to increase a higher percentage to the trade!

Thoughts?

The important thing is to be on the right side of the market , most traders do this by using ema 23 on several time frames , if price is above the ema 23 trade only longs, and if price is below ema 23 trade short.cut your losses and run your profits by using a trailing stop in trending markets.

#### 15 min tlb

##### Senior member
2,057 98
The purpose of trading is to make money, not to be right — a distinction that separates trend-following from other trading philosophies.

http://www.trendfollowing.com/whitepaper/lucky_monkey.pdf

#### Triggerfish

##### Active member
229 14
In cards it can be certain that you win, you can KNOW. In trading it's not so clear cut.
Hi Shakone:
Interesting when you say this, so I guess you play poker then, great, so you know exactly what am talking about here about "knowing".....yes!
Ok, you are correct that when poker and markets are compared together, trading is not so clear, it is because it is a lot more complex, more players.....agree? now that does not mean that same "knowing" cannot be achieved, does it?.....let me ask you a question then, are you sure your statement is based on a "believe" or is it a "fact"?
Remember the coin analogy noted somewhere in this thread, one can never see both sides at once.....so, even though you can see heads, does that really mean there is no tails?

Shakone said:
So you say you know things about price. For what period of time. 5 mins? An hour? A day?

If you know over that time period, then you know the high and low over that time period, right? So just state what the high and low will be over a time period, and do it 10-15 times to demonstrate, and then it will be clear. Looking forward to it

Yes, if someone asked and it is then given thereafter, even if it is given, it will not be understood and comprehended because one is not ready.....it is not going to happen.....it is like trying to tell someone what this knowing is in poker and explain it to someone who does not play poker and does not believe there is such a thing, now the markets are even more complex.....so do you see where we are?.....this thread can go on for another 100 pages and I know that the message cannot be passed because the persons "ego" is not dissolved.

10,229 2,055
huh??

#### Triggerfish

##### Active member
229 14
I would like to be on the right side as you described. I just need you to tell me the trade scenario that tells me that I know I am on the right side before I take the trade. This will be the third time I am asking you this question. You have so far avoided answering it.

Hi Brumby:
In all due respect, the questions you asked were in another thread which belongs to bbmac and I think we both know what happened there so we should at least respect that decision.....hope you understand the situation.
Now that you are here, I would refer you to my previous post to Shakone which should answer your question.

#### Triggerfish

##### Active member
229 14
I don't play poker.

Hi bbmac:
Maybe you should try it and see that "knowing" for yourself rather then me trying to explain it to you.....you know how difficult it is in here!

If you do see it then it might just allow you to glimpse through what you thought was not possible.....no one can do it for you.....yet it is your choice and your alone.....the only person preventing one from seeing is themselves!

#### Triggerfish

##### Active member
229 14
You have demonstrated no evidence of being right, or on the right side. Until these are proven, you are quite possibly wrong and therefore quite possibly off-topic. Since the market and those who can control the market are always right, you cannot be right because you are not the market nor can you control the market.

Hi BeginnerJoe, you see, I knew you were good, you do better when you put your mind to it, it is a pity you don't do this most of the time.....maybe you should.....at least you are asking the "right" questions.
You have raised some very interesting points:
Do you really think one needs to be the market to be right?
Do you really think one needs to control the market to be right?

Ask yourself the question, who created these illusions?

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