How difficult is it to call a top/bottom correctly? Corrections = easy but the bull-market top = much harder

[fibo_trader]

The Recession of October 2007 - March 6, 2009 = CRASH of 2008 going into the turn of March 6, 2009, ending the BEAR market

We are examining the BEAR market bottom of March 2009 that not a single expert was able to come up with. Even Warren Buffet said markets would go down for another year and half.

Thread below started 3 weeks after the actual bottom of the GREAT RECESSION on March 6, 2009. Nobody had the foggiest notion that the bottom was already in and that a new bull market was underway. Nobody at T2W or ET. How do I know this? I have done the work this year at both places

How long will this recession last?

I have heard so many different predictions about how long this recession will last. I have read articles, listened to the news and watched economists, and they all forcast different predictions. I have heard that it will be over by the summer, and that the worst is yet to come, aswell as many...

www.trade2win.com

Thread is not criticism of anybody.

 

[fibo_trader]

It is just simply a study of tops and bottoms of the past to see if any Herd member was ever smart enough to have an inkling that the turn was coming. None were found at ET or T2W. All lost souls, bewilderingly lost. That's just the way it is.

Can we learn from this and more importantly can we profit from this huge lapse in intelligence of the CROWD? Yes we can but only as an individual. Group think will not permit such success. the IQ of a Herd such as that at ET or T2W is no more than 30. That is why they always get tops and bottoms wrong and get slaughtered.

What about non-Herd members, aka individuals? They have a much better shot with IQ ranging from 100-160. But nobody has ever gotten it right. What might be the cause of no individual getting it right? I believe its the constant battering ram by the cognoscenti that calling tops and bottoms is a fool's game and nobody, not even the xperts have ever gotten it right

 

[fibo_trader]

In fact Trader333 made one of the most brilliant comments in this thread here that I have ever seen anywhere in stock market context - his comment is sooooo simple, yet so powerful. Stunning in its logic and right on the money.

see the part in red text below

"I suggest that you stop trying to predict the bottom of the market as you will invariably almost always get it wrong. The reality is that no one knows how long it will last after all these experts were not even able to predict it starting. So why would you think that any views on when it will end are of any value at all ?"

 

[fibo_trader]

OK, so that being said and having said to Inquisitor on my first day at T2W back in May this year, "calling/trading Tops/Bottoms is in my blood, I cannot help it, I might die from it but I gotta do it. The urge is just to strong to ignore.

Therefore with this backdrop and anyone who has read my thread on the current worldwide Top Call for a turn from Bull to BEAR and reminding them that my name is Fibo so they know I use Fibonacci as a weapon in my toolbox.

 

[fibo_trader]

OK then, so with that in mind, imagine Fibo being at T2W during the Great Recession of 2008. Think back to that time period and remember all the heavy stuff that was going on with American Express and whatnot getting bailed out and even Warren Buffet called in to advise the President and the Treasury Secretary ............. and absolute chaos iwth Freddie and Fannie. Joblessness had reached epic levels. Even Danny, one of the best Closers in the Universe barely made enough deals to pay rent and bills and survive. Businesses were collapsing left and right

 

[fibo_trader]

And there was no comfort to be found anywhere on the Internet or in coffee shops. The mood was unanimous. We are going to die, the world is going broke, the banks are going under. We are finished.

So now, knowing what you know about Fibo and of course assuming you would have hated him just as much as you do so now, but put the hate aside for a moment and just look at his focus on trading and technicals and his name FIBO

You all know that he does fibonacci and quite possibly nobody here agrees with any of it or most certainly thinks its hocus-pocus. No matter. I don't mind.

Now watch this as the FTSE 100 was dropping like a stone from October 2007 to March 6, 2009 ..................

FIBO would have posted this chart that showed where the FTSE 100 would reverse and go Bull market. It is that simple. Corrections are so much easier than th bull market itself.

 

[fibo_trader]

London FTSE 100 daily chart showing THE GREAT RECESSION and how the simplest FIBO tool nailed it!

That's why Fibo can beat any expert any time anywhere - because he don't listen to their negative crap about not being possible to know

 

[fibo_trader]

As shown in the chart, 3 entries Long would have been made after stop and reverse to take short profits. The first and most important hit is the 423.% level. I always do this, never sway from it. then on the 2 white arrows on trendline break I'd add to LONG and then boom, I'm off the years. Why off for years? Because these are long waves, massively long and this GREAT RECESSION was an obvious C-Wave. So the next bull would go very very high indeed. More on that later as I apply the tool to it tomorrow to see if there is any success - all in advance of any real crash yet.


Yeah, dig it baby

 

[fibo_trader]

Worldwide top Call was January 26, 2018. London was not looked at individually at that time.


London current 2018-2019 time period bull market Top calculation and Call: done on Thursday November 21, 2019 - independently of all other world indexes and US CALLS. Totally independent as a stand-alone Index, not correlations, no nothing, just straight pure whisky, not even with Ice or Lime


London Top = May 22nd, 2018 ..... at ..... 7903.5

The simplest tools rendered this CALL. Now we wait and see if one lone warrior by his lonesome self, can rock London's gypsy soul