Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 3rd MARCH 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd MARCH 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week

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FX News Today

Caixin China Services PMI disappointed in February and came in at 51.2 while analysts expected a 0.2 point rise to 52.6 from January. Index is still an indication of expanding services sector but growth was modest and much weaker than the average growth in long term. The survey shows that contraction in the manufacturing sector can spill over into service sector. This could be a red flag for the government and push it to increase its stimulative efforts further. Chinese government has been trying to replace manufacturing and export with private consumption as a key driver for the economy.

Fed’s Beige Book reiterated growth expanded in most Districts, according to the report prepared by the KC Fed, with contacts generally optimistic over future economic growth. Consumer spending increased in most regions, but some weakness was noted in KC and Dallas. Auto sales remained elevated. Manufacturing was mostly flat, but conditions varied considerably across Districts. Most note weak demand originating from the energy sector, not surprisingly. Additionally, the stronger dollar and weaker global growth outlook were headwinds to exports. Nonfinancial services activity was up slightly, with demand for staffing services in the rise. Transportation was mixed. Residential real estate was mostly on the rise, while home inventories were low. Residential construction activity had strengthened. Nonresidential sales also improved. Labor market conditions continued to improve. Wage growth varied from flat to strong across the 12 Districts, and most noted consumer prices were holding steady.

SF Fed’s Williams said that domestic demand is overwhelming weakness from abroad and he sees the US service sector as the driver next year, while inflation should move back to 2% over the next couple years. He doesn’t see the stock market a good indicator of where the economy is going and doesn’t think that China will be a huge risk to the US economic outlook. Williams sees no tangible risk that the US will fall into recession and the Fed strategy of raising rates is the right one. He still sees some accommodation as needed, but over time favors normalization. This is in keeping with his more bullish view of the economy and consistent favoring of normalizing rates for this hawkish dove.

The 214k February ADP rise beat the analyst estimates. The mining-restrained 5k rise in February goods jobs included a big 27k increase for construction jobs follows yesterday’s solid construction spending report to signal encouraging prospects for that sector, though we saw a 9k drop for factory jobs. A stronger than expected 208k climb for service sector jobs explained the headline ADP overshoot, and countered fears of a weakening service sector. U.S. reports over the last week have largely countered the market narrative of a slowing economy despite the big hit to trade revealed in last Friday’s trade data.

Main Macro Events Today

EMU Final Services PMI: The Eurozone Markit Services PMI for February, is expected to be confirmed at 53.0, unchanged from the preliminary reading. Confidence has been coming off, although mainly in the manufacturing sector, which is more focused on global headwinds and slowing emerging market growth. The services sector continues to benefit from robust domestic demand and PMI levels suggest ongoing expansion, but growth momentum is clearly slowing down and even a better than expected number would do little to dampen demands for further easing from the ECB.

US initial jobless claims: Jobless claims are expected to be 270k in the week-ended February 27. Continuing claims are expected to fall to 2,229k for the week-ended February 20. Forecast risk: upward, as the end of the holidays should slow layoffs. Market risk: downward, as weaker than expected data could slow the path of rate hikess expanding moderately while consumer spending remained mixed.

US Factory Orders: January factory orders are expected to grow 2.0% with inventories down 0.2%. Forecast risk: upward, given the stronger topline durable inventory numbers. Market risk: downward, as weaker data could impact the path of rate hikes.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 4th MARCH 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th MARCH 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week

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FX News Today

The AUD, NZD and emerging nation currencies gained ground against the USD, JPY and other currencies, continuing to outperform as stocks in Asia built on weekly gains, posting the best winning streak of the year in many cases. AUDUSD logged a three-month high at 0.7376, and AUDJPY a one-month peak. USDJPY, meanwhile, recouped to near 114.00 from the low 113s. EURUSD consolidated in the mid-1.09s after yesterday’s short-covering rally following above-forecast data out of the Eurozone. In the stock market realm, Japan’s Nikkei closed 0.3% for the better, up by over 4% on the week, while the main Chinese indexes are set to make today the fourth consecutive daily gain. Oil prices have continued to consolidate the 30%-plus gains seen from January lows amid signs of an improving supply-demand balance. The PBoC’s cutting of its reserve requirement ratio for big commercial banks on Monday, expectations of more stimulus from the ECB at its meeting next Thursday, and encouraging data in the US this week, coupled with market-satisfyingly confident-but-cautious guidance from Fed policymakers have collectively underpinned the prevailing risk-on sentiment this week. Attention is now on today’s US payrolls report, which is expected to show a decent 190k headline gain.

Dallas Fed’s Kaplan sounded relatively dovish emphasizing patience on rate hikes and policy accommodation, especially relative to tighter global financial conditions so far this year. That said, he sees resilience in the US economy for 2016 with a 1.9% GDP forecast, once accounting for slowing global growth and tighter financial conditions. As a Texas-based policy maker he sees potential ripple effects from weakness in the energy sector, though oil inventories may begin to fall by mid-2017. He also forecasts the jobless rate falling at a slower pace this year, though a low rate is more sustainable given global overcapacity. Kaplan said that inflation as tracked by the Dallas Fed ticked up in January, which bears watching. Markets remain inert ahead of payrolls.

Yesterday’s US reports revealed disappointments across the factory goods, ISM-NMI, and claims figures that trimmed prospects for both GDP and payrolls, though the pattern of upside surprises in US data over the past week remains intact despite today’s setbacks. The productivity report tracked estimates with welcome Q4 boosts in productivity and output alongside big downward bumps in Q3 and Q4 compensation that allowed a hefty trimming in Q3 and Q4 growth for unit labor costs.

Talks between OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers are on the table potentially in the first half of April, according to a Gulf OPEC delegate, but have not been formally set just yet. The source believes the meeting would likely be held in Doha, or some other Gulf city. A production “freeze” at elevated levels was agreed between the Saudis and Russia, but a wider agreement remains to be hammered out. Oil prices continue to consolidate gains in the meantime.

Main Macro Events Today

US Employment: February nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 190k, with a 180k private payroll gain. Forecast risk: upward, as improving claims could provide a lift. Market risk: downward, as substantial weakness could impact the path of rate hikes. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.9%. The workweek is expected to remain at 34.6 from January. Hourly earnings are expected to be up 0.1% which would leave a 2.5% y/y rise. Hours-worked should be up 0.1% for the month following a 0.4% increase last month.

Canada Ivey PMI: Canada’s Ivey PMI is expected to drop to 60.0 in February after jumping to 66.0 in January. The run-up in the January Ivey did not mean sentiment across Canada switched from mild pessimism in December to a level of optimism not seen since February of 2012’s 66.5 reading. Underlying not seasonally adjusted data typically sees big swings over November, December and January that are proving difficult to adjust in the seasonally adjusted series. That was likely again the case this time around.

Canada Trade: The trade deficit is projected to widen modestly to -C$0.8 bln in January (median -C$1.0 bln) from -C$0.6 bln in December. We see a 0.5% m/m gain in exports after the 3.9% surge in December. We see a 0.5% m/m gain in exports after the 3.9% surge in December. Imports are expected to rise 1.0% in January after the 1.6% bounce in December. Oil prices are a key risk, having plunged in January, which should weigh on import and export values.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 8th MARCH 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th MARCH 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week

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FX News Today

Fed governor Brainard noted some pick-up in inflation, in her comments on CNBC, with the core PCE rising to a 1.7% y/y pace in January. But that’s only one data point, she stressed, and she wants to see a pattern of increases moving toward the 2% target. Core inflation has also remained stubbornly low. She believes there’s reason for price pressures to build, especially if oil prices stabilize, upward pressures on the dollar abate, and the firming economy boosts demand. But she also sees troubling signs that inflation has moved lower of late, as she noted various downside risks to growth from abroad. She abstained from giving signs on the timing of a hike, but emphasized the two Fed mandates of growth and stable prices, and noted that there hasn’t been much progress on the latter. That suggests she won’t vote for a hike next week, or in the near future. He comments were consistent with prior remarks.

Fischer: the Fed would prefer not to use negative rates, he said in Q&A. The FOMC has been looking at what other countries have been doing, in terms of employing various policy tools, and he noted that negative rates have worked somewhat better than expected. Additionally, it seems in his mind it’s a moot point as he indicated the US is not that far away on inflation, and he sees price pressures picking up once oil and the dollar stabilize.

US consumer credit rose $10.5 bln in January after a revised $21.4 bln surge in December (was $21.3 bln). November’s $14.0 bln increase was nudged up to $14.1 bln. Non-revolving credit remained the leader, climbing $11.6 bln compared to the prior $15.9 bln increase (revised from $15.4 bln). Revolving credit declined $1.1 bln versus the prior $5.5 bln gain (revised from $5.8 bln). It’s the first decline for that component since February 2015.

Main Macro Events Today

Final EMU Q4 GDP: The final reading of Eurozone Q4 GDP is expected to be confirm growth rates of 0.3% q/q and 1.5% y/y, but is too backward looking to change the outlook. The focus will be on the breakdown, which is likely to show that domestic demand and consumption remain the mainstay of growth, but investment seems to be also picking up, judging by national data already released.

BoE Governor Carney Speech: Markets look forward to governor Carney’s speech in order to have clues on the banks future rates policy. We expect the BoE to stave off from hiking rates until Q4 2016 or Q1 2017. Continued disinflationary pressures along with slowing emerging market growth, together with abatement in domestic economic momentum, have been quelling BoE tightening ambitions.

BoC Rates Decision: No change is expected to the 0.50% policy rate. A better than expected Q4 GDP gain relative to bank expectations (+0.8% vs flat) along with three months of export gains through January are supportive of a repeat of the cautiously constructive growth outlook. We could see a bit more optimism creeping in, given the good news on GDP and exports, along with firming oil and commodity prices and financial markets that have stabilized/improved after a poor start to the year.

Canada Housing Starts and Permits: We expect starts, due Tuesday, to improve to a 175.0k unit rate in February (median 182.5k) after the back to back declines in December to 172.5k and January to 165.9k from 212.0k in November.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 9th MARCH 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th MARCH 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week

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FX News Today

Stock markets continued to decline during the Asian session. Global growth concerns are once again hitting equity markets. In Europe, the Brexit debate is hanging over the UK and in the Eurozone investors remain cautious ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting, after the disappointment from December. Draghi is fighting a difficult balancing act while a deposit rate cut and a tweaking of the QE program seem almost certain, the question is if he can pull a rabbit out of the hat against resistance from the conservatives at the council. US equities ended yesterday in the red as the energy sector ended down by 4.2% and the financials dropped by 1.62%. News wasn’t particularly stock market friendly with Citi down 2.4% after the CFO forecasted a 15% drop in markets revenues in Q1 and 25% dive in investment banking revenues, along with a $400 mln charge for restructuring.

Energy Action: The EIA lowered its Brent oil price forecasts, now seeing a 2016 average of $34/bbl from its prior $37 estimate, and $40/bbl in 2017, down from $50. Brent futures are currently trading at $39.88/bbl.

China bad banks need a lifeline said a NPC delegate according to an article in the WSJ (subscription), in the form of fresh funds to help the resolve rising financial risks and absorb bad assets. The so-called “bad banks” were designated in 1999 to help shoulder $200 bln in bad debts from state lenders and buy bad assets at a discount before restructuring the companies and then selling the assets at a profit. The proposal is aimed at allowing them to go public and expand their asset purchases to help mop up “zombie companies.”

Canada housing permit values fell 9.8% in January after a revised 7.7% m/m gain (was +11.3%) in December. According to Statistics Canada, the pull-back in total permit values was due to lower construction intentions for multi-family dwellings in B.C. and Ontario, along with a smaller drag from institutional buildings in Quebec and Alberta. Permit volumes slowed to a 188.4k rate in January from the 217.2k clip in December.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Industrial Production: Industrial production numbers for January are out today and expected to improve to 0.1% from -0.4% in December. Industrial Production in the UK declined 0.40 percent YoY in December, following a 0.7 percent increase in November. December decline was the first contraction in 28 months and was mainly due to a decrease in manufacturing output.

US Wholesale Trade: U.S. Wholesale Trade Preview: January wholesale trade data is out Wednesday and should reveal a 0.8% decline for sales with inventories down 0.2% (median -0.2%) for the month. This follows respective December figures of -0.3% for sales and -0.1% for inventories. Data in line with our forecast would allow the I/S ratio to tick up to 1.33 from 1.32 where it held in both December and November.

BoC Rate Decision: No change is expected to the 0.50% Bank of Canada policy rate in Wednesday’s announcement. A better than expected Q4 GDP gain relative to bank expectations (+0.8% vs flat) along with three months of export gains through January are supportive of a repeat of the cautiously constructive growth outlook. We could see a bit more optimism creeping in, given the good news on GDP and exports, along with firmer oil and commodity prices relative to January and financial markets that have stabilized/improved after a poor start to the year.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
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Date : 10th MARCH 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th MARCH 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week

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FX News Today

German trade surplus narrows as exports continue to drop. Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 18.8 bln in January, down from EUR 20.3 bln in the previous month. The narrowing reflects a second monthly drop in exports, which fell -0.5% m/m at the start of the year. Imports meanwhile rebounded and rose 1.2% m/m in January, after falling -1.6% m/m in December. This is nominal data that is impacted by oil prices and forex developments, but it confirms the trend of growing imports and slowing export demand, which means the German recovery is for once not export driven, but supported by consumption and lately also investment.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut 25 bps to 2.25%, contrary to widespread expectations for no change. Rate cuts were anticipated this year, just not so soon. Today’s cut was due to a concern over eroding inflation expectations. And more could be in store: Governor Wheeler said “Further policy easing may be required to ensure that future average inflation settles near the middle of the target range. A further cut could come as early as next month on April 28.

China’s CPI accelerated to a 2.3% y/y pace in February from the 1.8% growth rate in January. While that left CPI expanding at the fastest pace since the middle of 2014, the gain was driven by food costs, which spiked higher during the week of Lunar New Year holidays. Colder weather also lifted food prices. Hence, the pick-up in the CPI growth rate should prove temporary. Underlying inflation remains tame, leaving ample leeway for the government to implement further monetary and fiscal stimulus this year. The PPI fell 4.9% y/y in February after the 5.3% drop in January, leaving the 48th consecutive decline.

There weren’t any real surprises from the Bank of Canada, as it left its policy rate unchanged at 0.50%. The key take-away from January, that risks to the inflation profile remained largely balanced, was repeated. Though the general tone of the announcement might have been a little more upbeat, there was still plenty of caution noted given downside global risks. Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX was the global outperformer (excluding Italy), rising almost 0.7%, doubling the gain on Wall Street, thanks to its heavy weighting in oil and commodities.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB Interest Rate Decision: The ECB is widely expected to ease policy again today when updated set of staff projections will likely bring downward revisions to growth and inflation projections. A deposit rate cut of at least 10 bps together with the introduction of a tiered system to soften the impact is widely priced in. The ECB is also widely expected to widen monthly QE purchases but without a very large deposit rate cut or a change in the pool of assets, Draghi will eventually run into supply constraints, with German bonds the bottle neck the ECB has to funnel its monthly QE spending through unless the ECB abandons the rule of purchasing paper in line with the policy key. That, however, could be interpreted as outright state financing, and such a decoupling or too “exotic” moves could bring Draghi further into conflict with the Bundesbank, but refraining from radical steps risks disappointing markets.

US Jobless Claims: Weekly US Jobless Claims (expectations 270k) and Continuing Jobless claims (expectations 2,218K) have been following a volatile downward trajectory since early October of last year. Weaker than expected data will add to the slowing path of rate hikes, better than expected will add to the NFP figures from last Friday and increase speculation regarding a move by the FED next week.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 11th MARCH 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th MARCH 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week

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FX News Today

ECB’s policy “bazooka” backfired at least yesterday, where a buffet of easing steps were at first embraced then later spurned by the markets. For a while it seemed like Draghi had found his magic touch again. By burying a rather modest deposit rate cut in a broad package of other stimulus package, including a new corporate bond purchase program, he managed to keep markets happy, bring in spreads and give stock markets a boost, but only for an hour or so. Peripheral government bonds, stressed banks and corporate bonds were the main beneficiaries. In the long run though Draghi’s eagerness to shield highly indebted countries and banks struggling with non-performing loans may come back to haunt the ECB and the Eurozone. It would appear Draghi did too good a job of signaling the moves in advance, which were clearly priced in, then followed by rapid unwinding on-the-fact. He also managed to confuse markets while he initially managed to bury the modest deposit rate cut in a host of other measures and implicit easing bias. He undid most of the good work by remarking that he doesn’t expect it to be necessary to cut rates again. Given the ECB’s track record, the only thing that means is that there won’t be another cut at the next meeting, and we would expect markets to settle down again today as the details of the stimulus package sink in. Today’s CPI number release from Germany won’t change the picture either as numbers were in line with expectations and mostly unchanged.

Japanese business sentiment deteriorated abruptly in the first quarter, the BSI Manufacturing Index indicated today. Financial market turmoil and slow demand globally had impacted negatively Japan’s flimsy economic recovery. The data pressures the policymakers to deploy extra stimulus measures to reflate an economy that is bordering on yet another recession. BSI Index measuring sentiment at large manufacturers came in at -7.9 in January-March, swinging from 3.8 in Q4 2015. BSI index is a joint survey by the Ministry of Finance and the Economic and Social Research Institute, an arm of the Cabinet Office.

OPEC, Non-OPEC meeting unlikely to happen on March 20 as previously scheduled, as Iran has yet to agree to the oil production freeze, according to sources cited on Reuters earlier. That sure could explain the reversal in NYMEX crude into the red by -1.9% and back below $38 bbl to the $37.50 area.

Canada’s erosion in Q4 capacity use was not a surprise, as the drop to 81.1% in Capacity Utilization Rate fit with the already revealed slowing in real Q4 GDP growth to an 0.8% pace (q/q, saar) from the 2.4% growth rate in Q3. Revisions were substantial in today’s report, but the pattern in 2015 remained intact: The post-recession Q4 2014 near term peak use rate was revised to 82.8% (was 83.3%), falling to 81.9% in Q1 (was 82.5%) and 80.5% in Q2 (was 81.4%) before rising to 81.6% in Q3 (was 82.0%).

Main Macro Events Today

Canada Employment numbers: We expect employment to rise 10.0k in February (median same at +10.0k) after the 5.7k drop in January. The year started out in a mess, with crude oil prices plunging and global growth worries intensifying. Against that backdrop, total jobs dipped. A less dire backdrop of firmer oil prices and markets that were not melting down is expected to lead to some optimism, lifting employment in February. But the resource and manufacturing sectors remained a drag, which may leave another disappointing report.

Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: Trends in rig counts are significant clues for market participants in the oil and gas sector as they reveal the supply dynamics in the sector. Rig counts are reported week on Fridays. On March 7th the company announced that the international rig count for February 2016 was 1,018, down 27 from the 1,045 counted in January 2016, and down 257 from the 1,275 counted in February 2015. The worldwide rig count for February 2016 was 1,761, down 130 from the 1,891 counted in January 2016, and down 1,225 from the 2,986 counted in February 2015.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 15th MARCH 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th MARCH 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week

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FX News Today

The improvement in stocks has run out of steam, which should keep bond futures supported. Asian stock markets are mostly slightly down, stock futures in the UK and the US are also heading south, after the BoJ kept policy on hold, while offering a somewhat bleaker picture of the economy and highlighting that inflation expectations are weakening. The door to further easing remains open then, but the BoJ’s decision to stay pat for now, is likely to be mirrored by other central banks this week. The Fed starts its two day meeting today and SNB and BoE will announce their policy decisions on Thursday, with policy expected to be kept on hold, leaving the focus on statements.

RBA – Upbeat on jobs but does not rule out rate cut. The Minutes from the last RBA meeting show that it does not rule out another rate cut. Employment has stalled in January, following a very strong end to 2015. “Nevertheless, conditions in the labour market had clearly improved since early 2015,” the RBA said. “Leading indicators of employment had increased further and were consistent with employment growth in the months ahead. “But the central bank said low inflation will allow it to cut the cash rate if jobs growth flattens out or the global economy goes into meltdown. “Continued low inflation would provide scope to ease policy further, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand,” the minutes said.

BoJ kept policy on hold, but signalled an implicit easing bias, by painting a bleaker picture of the economy and warning that inflation expectations are falling. The bank also announced that it will exempt around USD 90 bln in money-reserve funds (MRFs) – short term funds – from negative rates, after warnings that investment money would be driven into bank deposits. The pledge to increase base money at an annual rate of JPY 80 trillion was left in place. The BoJ said that while “Japan’s economy continues to recover moderately as a trend”, the pick up in exports, which was still seen in January, has paused, mainly due to slowing growth in emerging market economies. At the same time it said inflation expectations weakened recently. So the door to further easing is left open.

ECB ups pressure on governments to implement structural reforms. Bank of France head Villeroy stressed that monetary policy alone cannot revive the economy and said France needs reforms to boost conference. ECB’s Rimsevics also said that monetary policy can only buy time and that politicians need to act on reforms. Hardly anything new, but with the ECB effectively removing market pressure on governments Draghi finds that verbal pressure alone is a blunt tool.

Main Macro Events Today

US PPI: February PPI is expected to decline by 0.3% (median -0.2%) in its Tuesday release with the core figure down -0.1% (median -0.2%). This compares to January figures which had the headline up 0.1% and the core up 0.4%. Data in line with our forecasts would result in a flat y/y headline with a 1.1% y/y pace of growth for the core. Oil price declines have tapered off but are still likely to weigh on the release.

US Retail Sales: February retail sales data is out on Tuesday and the headline should decline 0.2% (median -0.1% with the ex-autos figure down 0.3% ( median -0.2%) for the month. This follows January figures of 0.2% for the headline and 0.1% for the ex-autos figure.

US NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index: The March Empire State Index is out Tuesday and should reveal a headline increase to -12.0 (median -12.0) from -16.6 in February and -19.4 in January. Producer sentiment was strong over the course of the fall but weakened into the new year. We expect the ISM-adjusted average of all measures of sentiment to hold at 49 for a third month.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 17th MARCH 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th MARCH 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week

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FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets outside Japan moved higher overnight, following on from gains in the U.S. after the FOMC trimmed its dot plot to imply just two tightening’s in 2016, which aligns the Fed’s view with the market. Japanese markets were weighed down by renewed strength in the Yen, following the dovish Fed statement. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also up and oil prices are starting to eye USD 39 per barrel. So good leads for European stock markets, but also bond futures and with the Fed statement out of the way the focus shifts to BoE and SNB meetings today.

Fed Trims Dots and Remains Cautious: The FOMC statement reflects ongoing caution on global economic and financial developments, though optimism was maintained on the domestic front, and especially with regard to the labor market. The Fed also raised the profile of inflation, which “picked up” but remains shy of its target. The Fed’s mostly downward forecast revisions for the dot-plot and GDP, along with steadier inflation and job outlooks, left the markets taking a dovish cue from the proceedings, though Yellen left open the door for a move as early as April. She also the Fed is “not activity debating or considering negative rates,” or looking into other methods of accommodation. The Fed still has a range of tools it can use if it finds itself back in that situation of needing to add more stimulus. The adoption and impact of negative rates by other central banks is being studied.

UK Chancellor Osborne announced GBP 3.5 bln in spending cuts as he presents the government’s 2016-17 budget. He said that cuts would be implemented towards the end of the current parliament, in 2019-20. On the Brexit issue, he argued that the UK is “better off” inside a “reformed” EU and that the official UK growth forecasts from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility were based on the country remaining within the union. UK growth was revised down to 2.0% for 2016, down from 2.4% forecast in November, and 2.2% in 2017, down from 2.5% previously envisaged. He quoted the OBR’s view that leaving the EU would “usher in an extended period of uncertainty.”

CPI better than expected. The 0.168% February US. CPI drop was upstaged by a sturdy 0.283% core price rise, as the expected 6.0% energy price drop and 0.2% food price rise accompanied hefty gains of 1.6% for apparel prices that extended a 0.6% January rise, a second consecutive 0.5% rise for medical care service prices, and a 0.3% rise for owners’ equivalent rent after four consecutive 0.2% increases. We saw 0.2% gains for new vehicle and tobacco prices.

Main Macro Events Today

BoE Decision: There is a strong consensus for the BoE to stand pat on policy this week, and we expect the minutes to reveal a unanimous vote to maintain the repo rate at 0.5% (median same). This would make it exactly seven years the repo has been at its historic low. Weakness in the February PMI surveys and the benign inflation backdrop should ensure a dovish-tilted tone in the minutes, though still keeping the door open to an eventual rate hike, which markets are now discounting to be in Q1 next year. It will be interesting to see if there is any mention of “Brexit” risks, which kicked into gear following the PM Cameron’s renegotiated membership terms and consequence setting of a referendum data (June 23).September.

SNB Decision: The SNB will have eyed the ECB’s move carefully and especially the fact that the deposit rate cut was rather modest and so far the impact on the CHF proved temporary, could allow the Swiss central bank to hold off with another rate cut at its policy meeting on Thursday. Much will depend on developments in forex markets and even if rates are on hold this week, the SNB has shown before that it can always act at short notice and outside its quarterly policy meetings.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


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Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 05th April 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 05th APRIL 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week

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FX News Today

RBA leaves rates on hold: The Reserve Bank of Australia has left interest rates on hold for the 11th straight month, despite growing unease about a stubbornly high Australian dollar. The official overnight cash rate target has been left at 2 per cent, where it has been since last being cut in May 2015. The Reserve Bank has attempted to lift expectations that the bank may cut rates, with its governor Glenn Stevens warning that a rising Australian dollar could push it to cutting rates again. “The Australian dollar has appreciated somewhat recently. In part, this reflects some increase in commodity prices, but monetary developments elsewhere in the world have also played a role,” he wrote in his post-meeting statement. Financial markets are pricing in around a one-in-three chance of rates falling next month, with a 50 per cent chance of a cut by August. AUDUSD is currently trading at 0.7600, having been as high as 0.7620.

European Outlook: Asian stock markets outside of mainland China were under pressure, with the Nikkei underperforming. US and European stock futures are also lower, as risk aversion continues to weigh on markets and oil prices settle below USD 36 per barrel. The RBA kept policy on hold, but left the door open for easing steps as it sends a warning on the strong AUD. The RBI cut rates by 25 bp, also as expected. The European calendar has German manufacturing orders at the start of the session, followed by the final reading of the Eurozone Services PMI and the UK. Services PMI.

Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari sees moderate growth: As his outlook for the U.S. economy and views current monetary policy as “about right.” He also noted that it is compelling that the U.S. labor force participation rate is on the rise as he wants to keep putting people back to work as long as inflation stays below the Fed’s goal. “That’s a good thing and we should let that process continue while inflation is running below our target,” he noted. Sounds like he’ll be in Yellen’s dovish camp, barring any unexpected jump in inflation. A little less controversial than the his start as a regional Fed president by critiquing banks for still being too big to fail. Kashkari was speaking at a symposium on banking regulation.

US factory orders dropped 1.7% in February: After a revised 1.2% January gain (was 1.6%). Though the headline decline wasn’t as weak as projected, weakness was broad-based and this doesn’t bode well for growth. Durable goods were revised down to a 3.0% decline from -2.8% previously. Transportation orders fell 6.2%. Excluding transportation, orders were down 1.3% compared to a 1.4% gain previously (revised from 1.7%). Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft slid 2.5% from 3.3 (revised from a 3.4% increase). Shipments dropped 0.7%, with nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft falling 1.7% from -1.4% (revised from -0.4%). Inventories declined 0.4% from -0.5% in January. The inventory-shipment ratio was steady at 1.37 (January was revised up from 1.36).

Main Macro Events Today

U.S. Non-Manufacturing ISM
The March ISM-NMI is out later today to close out the March producer sentiment readings. We expect the headline to improve to 54.0 (median 54.1) from 53.4 in February The already released ISM improved to 51.8 from 49.5 and other major measures all improved as well. Broadly, we expect the ISM-adjusted measure of all measures to pop to 52 for the month after holding at 49 in the two months prior.

Eurozone Services PMI
The Eurozone PMI Services PMI is also released today and no change to previous months 53.7 reading is expected. German figures are expected to remain resilient at 55.5 whilst French figures are expected to remain the weakest of the reporting countries at 51.2.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


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Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 6th April 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th APRIL 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week

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FX News Today

German Feb industrial production drops less than feared: Production correcting just 0.5% m/m from the rise in January, against expectations for a drop of around -2.0% m/m. Still, the January number was revised sharply down to 2.3% m/m from 3.3% m/m reported initially and the annual rate fell back in February. Together with the weaker than expected orders readings and mixed confidence data the outlook is for slowing growth in overall production and a general weakening of the growth trajectory as the improvement on the labour market peters out and the refugee crisis weighs on consumer confidence.

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mixed with Japan underperforming as a third consecutive dip in the leading indicator and a stronger Yen weighed on markets. Elsewhere stock markets started to stabilize and the front end Nymex futures climbed toward USD 37 per barrel. The EUR weakened, but remains clearly above 1.130 against the dollar. Released overnight the U.K. BRC shop price index dropped -1.7% in March, a slight uptick from the -2.0% y/y in February. Still to come, there is central bank speak from the ECB and the Riksbank and Germany, Denmark, Sweden and Norway sell bonds, while Greece issues bills amid fresh Grexit concerns.

US ISM-NMI March increased to 54.5: This was from a 53.4 two-year low that beat estimates and capped a four-month drop from a solid 58.3 as recently as October, versus a 59.6 ten-year high last July. The ISM-adjusted measure rose to 54.1 from 53.2 in February and a 53.1 two-year low in January, versus a 59.0 ten-year high last July. The ISM-NMI figures remain stronger than the factory sentiment readings likely because the service sector is benefiting from the boost to household purchasing power via lower gasoline prices, while the factory sector faces headwinds from an inventory overhang, weak foreign demand, restraint in the vehicle assembly rate, and a petro-sector recession. Given March strength in the factory sentiment figures, the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys popped to a surprisingly solid 53 in March from 49 in both January and February and 50 over the last four months of 2015, leaving the strongest average since the 53 figure in June and July of last year.

US JOLTS report showed job openings fell 159k: 5,445k openings in February versus a revised 323k January gain to 5,604k (was 5,541k), though the January level was the 3rd highest of this cycle. The rate fell to 3.7% from 3.8%. Hiring rebounded 297k to 5,422k after diving 276k in January to 5,125k (revised from 5,029k). The rate rose to 3.8% versus 3.6% previously. Quitters increased 99k to 2,950k following the prior 237k decline to 2,851k (revised from 2,804k). The quit rate also rose to 2.1% from 2.0%.

Main Macro Events Today

FOMC Minutes
The minutes to the March 17, 18 Fed meeting will be interesting for clues on the various outlooks of the Committee. However, Yellen’s dovish stance has usurped a lot of the importance of the minutes. Also, other Fedspeakers since the mid-March meeting have also let their feelings known, with even the more dovish members supporting expectations for 2 rate hikes this year. Meanwhile, data has revealed a slower Q1 economy, with our 2016 growth forecast now just 0.7%, with the Atlanta Fed at 0.4%. We know that in March, policymakers were contending with many uncertain and conflicting signals, as well as geopolitical concerns. Those factors left the FOMC on the sidelines, as they punted into Q2, although the economic projections for the year, along with inflation forecasts, were trimmed. Look for the minutes to largely underscore the various uncertainties domestically and around the world as the central reason for the unchanged policy stance.

ECB Non-Monetary Policy MeetingThe Non-Monetary policy’s ECB meeting is this morning in Frankfurt. This is a monthly meeting and involves all 25 members of the governing council.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 7th April 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th APRIL 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week

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FX News Today

BOJ Koruda and Japan Finance Ministry: A reiteration of the Japanese economic approach was emphasized overnight as both the BOJ Governor and the finance ministry chief (Mr Suga) pledged more of the same and that they “Will take steps in FX market if needed”. The YEN continued its surge against its major competitors USDJPY is current trading at 108.8, EURJPY 124.50 and GBPJPY 154.00. The Nikkei 225 was understandably subdued on the news and is currently the lagging Asian stock market.

European Outlook: The bounce back in oil prices, which have risen above USD 38 per barrel, is keeping equity markets underpinned and things continued to improve in Asia overnight, with most markets outside of mainland China in positive territory, although gains have been modest, compared to the rise in the U.S. and the U.K. The Fed minutes, which on balance favoured caution added support, while the rise in the Yen is keeping a lid on Japanese equities. U.K. stock futures are also higher, pointing to opening gains in Europe, with Eurozone markets likely to continue to underperform amid ongoing EUR strength and concerns about the economic and political outlook for the Eurozone as Grexit fears flare up again and push out spreads. The calendar is relatively quiet, with a focus on the ECB, which publishes the minutes to the March meeting and holds a conference on “The ECB and its watchers”.

FOMC minutes: They showed “several” officials argued for a cautious approach regarding the potential for an April hike, which was debated at the March meeting. As Yellen commented in her recent speech, and in her press conference, many participants thought the current rate asymmetry made it prudent to wait for more information on the underlying strength of economic activity or inflation before taking another step to reduce accommodation. The minutes revealed global concerns remained very relevant — the word “global” was used 13 times in the participants’ discussion of current conditions (“risks,” or some variation, appeared 16 times). Again the FOMC reiterated the next move would be data, not calendar, dependent. We’re not seeing anything really new in the minutes versus what we knew from the policy statement, the SEP, and subsequent Fedspeak.

Fedspeak, Positions Confirmed: Fed hawk Mester expects “gradual” rate hikes this year in a repeat of previous missives on the topic, in discussing the economy and monetary policy from Cleveland. Bullard also stated his expectation that inflation will overshoot the 2% target and that 2.2% inflation is better than 1.5% inflation and that all meetings are “live”. So more of the same from the Presidents.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB’s Draghi Speech
Due to speak about the economic and financial situation in Europe at the Portuguese President’s Council, in Lisbon. The eloquent and reserved Mr Draghi is always one to listen too carefully. Portuguese Bonds were dragged down yesterday along with Grexit talk. Interesting location for his latest speech.

Fed’s Yellen Speech
In New York the four latest Chairs (Volcker, Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen) of the FOMC are meeting and Mrs Yellen is due to speak. As the incumbent Chair she is unlikely to use the occasion to utter anything new or indeed controversial. The words from her predecessors on the other hand could prove more interesting.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 11th April 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th APRIL 2016.


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Main Macro Events This Week

United States: There is a lot of potentially relevant US data due out this week, including CPI and retail sales. The week starts with March trade prices (Tuesday), where import prices should jump 1.6% (0.9% median) thanks to a rebound in oil (-0.1% ex-petro), while export prices are slated to sink 0.2% (median -0.3%). The Treasury budget is also due for March, with the deficit seen almost doubling to -$94.0 bln versus last March’s -$52.9 bln. Wednesday sees, retail sales, with a flat forecast for the headline (median 0.3%) amid some drag from chain store sales vs -0.1% in February. Excluding autos, sales should rebound 0.3% after the prior 0.1% dip. PPI is set to rise 0.2% headline (median 0.3%) or just 0.1% core, with business inventories seen sinking 0.2% in February. Inflation’s better half, the CPI report is due (Thursday) and expected to rise 0.1% in March (median 0.2%) vs -0.2% in February. Initial jobless claims may dip 7k to 260k (median 270k) for the April 9 week. Empire State is projected to sink to 0.0 in April (median 2.2) vs 0.6 (Friday), along with a 0.4% fall (median unchanged) in industrial production for March vs -0.5% and a drop in capacity use to 75.0% (median 75.4%) vs 75.4%. Preliminary Michigan sentiment may hold steady at 91.0 (median 92.0) and the TIC inflow report is also due.

Canada: The Bank of Canada’s policy announcement and MPR (Wednesday) loom large this week. We expect no change in the current 0.50% policy setting to come alongside a slightly more upbeat growth outlook, but one that maintains that ample downside risk to growth is still in place. The take-away from the announcement and MPR is expected to be for an extended period of steady policy, as the Bank remains on the sidelines while past monetary stimulus continues to work through the system and fresh fiscal stimulus comes on-line. Economic data this week is back-loaded, with February new home prices (Thursday) and February manufacturing shipments (Friday) due at the end of the week. Manufacturing shipments are expected to fall 1.5% in February after the 2.3% surge in January. The new home price index is seen expanding 0.2% m/m in February after the 0.1% rise in January. Existing home sales for March (Friday) and the Teranet/National HPI for March (Wednesday) are also due out.

Europe: The Eurozone is once again looking shaky. Ongoing problems in Greek bailout talks have rekindled Grexit fears and with them, the question arises of just how much risk sharing there really is in the Eurozone. Data releases this week focus mainly on final inflation readings for March. German HICP moved back into positive territory and should be confirmed at 0.1% y/y, but with French HICP at -0.1% y/y, Spanish inflation at -1.0% y/y and the Italian HCIP rate at -0.3% y/y, the overall Eurozone CPI (Friday), is expected to be confirmed at a still negative -0.1%. Other data releases include February production and trade data, which are too backward looking to change the overall outlook for the ECB. We expect production to correct -0.9% m/m (median same), from the strong jump in January. The trade surplus meanwhile should widen judging by the improvement in the dominant German number that month, which was backed by a rebound in exports.

UK: The UK calendar has the April BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting (Thursday), along with the latest BRC survey of retail sales (Tuesday) and inflation figures (also Tuesday). The BoE is widely expected to maintain an unchanged policy stance, by a unanimous vote. The BRC retail sales release is expected to rebound in March data to +1/4% y/y in the like-for-like measure, up from +0.1% y/y growth in February. Record levels of employment and rising real incomes are underpinning the sector. Headline CPI is expected to tick higher, to +0.4% (median same) from 0.3% in the month previous. The core CPI reading is also see nudging up, to +1.4% y/y from 1.3%. Such outcomes would be consistent with BoE projections.

China: March CPI and PPI have been published earlier Today. Consumer prices were expected to rise to a 2.4% y/y rate from 2.3%, but they remained stuck on 2.3%. PPI however, posted a -4.3% y/y pace from -4.9%, better than expected. March trade surplus (Wednesday) is forecast to have narrowed slightly to $32.0 bln from $32.6 bln. Friday brings the balance of data releases, including March retail sales which are expected to slow to a 10.0% y/y pace from 11.1% previously. March industrial production is seen improving to up 5.7% y/y from 5.4%, while March fixed investment likely ticked up to 10.3% y/y from 10.2%.

Japan: February machine orders have been published earlier Today and the decline was 9.2%, better than the expected 10.0% m/m versus the 15% January rise. March bank loan data is due Tuesday, followed by March PPI (Wednesday) which is see steady at -3.4% y/y. Revised February industrial production data comes on Friday, and is seen at -6.2%, unchanged from the preliminary reading.

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Financial Stability Review (Friday) will be of considerable interest. As for economic data, the March employment report (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 10.0k gain following the 0.3k rise in February. The unemployment rate is seen at 5.8%, matching the 5.8% in February. Housing investment (Monday) is expected to rise 1.0% in February after falling 3.9% in January.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 17th MAY 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th MAY 2016.


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FX News Today

Oil prices firmed over 3% to hit a peak of $48.16 bbl (at the time of writing), with gold prices hitting a high of $1,290. Oil was supported by a Goldman Sachs report that the oil market had shifted from a supply glut to a deficit earlier than expected. Oil prices in general markets have been supported over last few trading days by news of decreasing US production and output disruptions in Canada and Nigeria. The production cuts are helping to rebalance the global oil market awash with unwanted crude oil and pushing up prices almost 12% since the market rallied from my Buy Area published in the May 5th analysis on oil.

A known gold bull John Paulson reduced his investments on the yellow metal while George Soros and other large investment funds increased their holdings in the metal for the first time in years. This was shown by filings on Monday. Reuters reports that New York-based hedge fund Paulson & Co, led by John Paulson, cut its investment in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s biggest gold exchanged-traded fund (ETF), by 17 percent to 4.8 million shares, according to US Securities and Exchange Commission filings.

RBA’s May cut was driven by “broad-based” softening in inflation, even as the growth outlook remained largely steady, according to the meeting minutes. They had considered waiting for more information, but of course decided to cut 0.25% to 1.75%. Recall that the CPI fell in Q1, marking the first drop since 2008. Core CPI growth moderated to the slowest pace on record. And labour costs have been soft. The RBA’s target band for underlying inflation is 2-3%, but they lowered it to 1-2% for 2016 in the forecasts released May 6. In our view, another rate cut is likely in June or August.

US NAHB homebuilder sentiment was flat at 58 in May, holding at that relatively firm level for a fourth consecutive month. The current single family sales index was also unchanged at 63 after dipping 2 points to that level in April. The future sales index rose 3 points to 65 after inching up 1 point to 62 last month. The index of prospective buyer traffic was steady at 44. Builders cited the regulatory environment and low inventories as sources of restraint, according to the report, while low mortgage rates and a solid job market underpins.


Main Macro Events Today

UK Inflation April CPI: is expected unchanged at 0.5% y/y (median same) while core CPI is seen ebbing back to 1.4% y/y from 1.5% in March. This would closely fit BoE projections. PPI output prices are seen at -0.7% (median -0.8%) after -0.9% in March. However, with the BoE having stressed last week that economic and financial indicators are likely to be “less informative than usual” in light of the uncertainties being thrown up by approaching referendum on EU membership, the figures may not carry the usual potential to impact sterling markets.

US Industrial Production: April industrial production should reveal a 0.3% increase on the month after dropping by 0.6% in both March and February. The capacity utilization rate should rise to 75.0% from 74.8% in March and 75.3% in February. Mining employment in the April report extended the run of recent weakness that the collapse in oil prices has driven and could lend some downside risk to the release.

US CPI The April CPI: should reveal a 0.4% (median 0.4%) headline increase while the core rises by 0.2% (median 0.2%). This follows respective March figures which had the headline up 0.1% and the core up 0.1% as well. The declines in gasoline prices over the winter have weighed on price report headlines but we have seen some rebound in oil prices this spring which should begin to bring an end to this effect.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 18th MAY 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th MAY 2016.


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FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south, as stronger than expected GDP data out of Japan cast doubt over hopes of further easing and a delay to the sales tax hike, which added to US rate hike bets. FTSE 100 futures are also down. Positive leads then for European bond markets, which already moved higher yesterday, although the 10-year Bund future lost some of its gains in after hour trade. Today’s data calendar brings the final reading of Eurozone April CPI, expected to be confirmed at -0.2% y/y, and UK labour market data. The April claimant count rate is seen steady at 2.1% and the ILO unemployment rate for March unchanged at 5.1% y/y. Earnings growth could show a slight deceleration in the rate excluding bonuses.

Japan’s GDP grew 1.7% in Q1: This following the downward revised 1.7% drop in Q4 (was -1.1%). The magnitude of the increase in Q1 easily outpaced projections (we saw +0.5%), but did follow a hefty downward revision to Q4. While the return to growth dodged a technical recession, the detail suggest underlying momentum is lacking in the economy, despite years of Abenomics and aggressive easing from the BoJ. Notably, an extra day in February due to leap year boosted consumption relative to the previous quarter. Private consumption grew 0.5% (q/q, sa) in Q1 after contracting a revised 0.8% in Q4 (was -0.9%). Business spending took a disappointing turn, falling 1.4% (q/q, sa) in Q1 after a revised 1.2% gain in Q4 (was +1.5%). The yen is steady, with USDJPY at 109.20.

Fedspeak: Fed’s Williams and Lockhart both noted June is a live meeting, in their comments at a Politico event. Both are doves, but have been noting the potential for further normalization this year, consistent with the FOMC’s projections of 2 25 bp hikes. Lockhart said it’s too early to draw conclusions about Q2 growth, but he wouldn’t take June off the table. Like several of his colleagues, he warns that the markets are more pessimistic than he is. Neither are voters this year. Fed moderate Kaplan said that the Fed should hike rates “in the not too distant future,” while he sees the household sector in good shape and forecasts a 2% rise in 2016 GDP, though still some slack in the labor force.

Main Macro Events Today

EMU CPI: We expect the headline rate to be confirmed at -0.2% (median same). The decline back into negative territory last month was partly due to special factors with the earlier timing of Easter meaning that holiday related prices, which picked up over Easter, fell back again in April. This distorts the annual rate somewhat and goes some way to explain the swings over the March/April period. In any case, the ECB has already reacted pre-emptively with the March set of easing measures and is now firmly in wait and see mode and focused on implementing what has already been announced, so that any revision won’t change the immediate rate outlook.
FOMC Minutes: Published at 21:00 GMT and should make interesting reading as a number of officials want interest rate hikes as early as June or July, whereas the market is discounting this heavily with only 23% of investors expecting a hike in either month. As ever the words that are used and indeed not used will be scrutinized closely.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 19th MAY 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th MAY 2016.


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FX News Today

European Outlook: Global stock markets are pressured after the Fed minutes seemed to back June rate hike backs, with Asian stock markets mostly lower, and U.S. and U.K. stock futures also in the red. Yields are rising as the end to ever expanding monetary policy accommodation is coming into sight and the front end WTI future has fallen back below USD 48 per barrel Bund futures already extended losses in after hour trade yesterday and are likely to remain under pressure. UK markets underperformed yesterday as reduced Brexit bets boosted Sterling, and while GBP has eased somewhat it remains above 1.46 against the USD. The European calendar today as Eurozone current account and U.K. retail sales and the CBI industrial trends survey.

FOMC minutes showed a June hike was “likely”: If data improved as expected. Officials wanted to keep options open for June. But there was a range of views on whether the economic numbers would be adequate to support a tightening next month. Consistent with the April 27 policy statement, many officials noted global risks needed to be closely monitored, with some noting specific worries over China’s currency and Brexit. However, “many” officials continued to see downside risks to the outlook, even as “some” saw global risks as having diminished. Meanwhile, a “few” officials (the more hawkish members) were talking about an April hike. The minutes certainly do set the stage for a tightening next month, though of course data will have to cooperate. Our call for a June hike is supported by the minutes to the April 26, 27 policy meeting.

Australia Adds Jobs: More new jobs were added to the Australian economy last month with the unemployment level remaining at 30 month lows. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.7% (expectations increase to 5.8%); Employment rose 10,800 for March; Full-time jobs fell by 9,300; part-time employment rose by 20,200; Participation rate, a measure of labor force as a share of the population, dropped to 64.8%. It shows that low interest rates are helping sectors such as construction and tourism, however the fall in participation rates and the rise of part-time workers shows suggests only tepid growth.

BoJ seen expanding stimulus by July: According to the consensus view from the latest Reuters survey. 19 of the 22 respondents expect a move by July, with 7 anticipating a move in June and 12 predicting that the stimulus boost will come at the policy meeting in July, which would coincide with BoJ economic forecast updates. The three remaining respondents opted for the two-day meeting ending on Nov-1. 80% of respondents expect a combination of cutting negative rates further and upping the QQE program (two of PM Abe’s three arrows economic-revival plan), although the prevailing -0.1% rate isn’t expected to be touched until Q4. Note that the survey was conducted over the six days to yesterday, thereby missing today’s initial release of Q1 GDP data out of Japan, which smashed expectations at +1.7% q/q, well up on the median forecast for a 0.3% rise. On this, however, caveats apply. As the FT points out, first-estimate GDP data are apt for potentially big revisions in Japan. The report also highlighted that falling investment chopped 0.9 of a percentage point of GDP in Q1, which is seem largely as a consequence of the impact of yen strength on major Japanese businesses. This should maintain Japanese policymakers’ desire to weaken the yen, though don’t expect much jawboning on this until the upcoming G7 meetings have come and gone.

Main Macro Events Today

US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: May Philly Fed is out on Thursday and should reveal a headline to increase to 5.0 (median 3.0) from -1.6 in April and 12.4 in March. The already released Empire State Index for May posted a dramatic drop to -9.0 from 9.6 which could spell downside risk to the Philly Fed release. However, we expect some improvement in broad producer sentiment in May with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures ticking up to 52 from 51 last month and 53 in March.

US Initial Jobless: Claims data for the week of May 14th are out today and should reveal a 297k (median 275k) headline following a 294k headline last week and 274k in the week prior. There is a chance that the big jump in claims last week was the result of spring break in NY public schools so there could be an unwind this week. We expect claims to average 275k in May from 259k in April and 264k in March. This would accompany an anticipated 190k nonfarm payroll headline for the month.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 13th June 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th JUNE 2016.


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The Main Macro Events This Week

United States: FOMC Forecast revisions to be released Wednesday after the FOMC meeting should reveal little change in the official GDP and jobless rate estimates from the March meeting, which remain consistent across the forecast horizon with available growth and jobs data. The US economic calendar will have a few last-minute releases that may inform the Fed decision this week, but none sufficient to provide a counter-weight to the tepid May employment report that temporarily curbed the Fed’s appetite for a hike. Among them are the May retail sales report (Tuesday), which may log a healthy 0.6% gain (median 0.3%) vs 1.3% in April. Import prices are set to rise 1.0% in May, compared to a 0.2% gain in export prices. Business inventories are on tap too, expected be unchanged in April (median 0.3%) vs 0.4%. MBA mortgage market applications (Wednesday) are due, followed by an update on PPI set to rise 0.4% (median 0.3%) or -0.1% core. Empire State is seen flat for June (median -0.4) vs -9.0 in May, still not very inspiring, while industrial production may sink 0.2% in May (median unchanged) and capacity use slip to 75.2% from 75.4%. CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% for both headline and core in May (Thursday) and a 1.1% y/y reading won’t rattle the Fed. Philly Fed may resurface to 2.0 in June (median 0.7%) from -1.8, while the current account narrows to -$124.6 bln in Q1 from -$125.3 bln in Q4. Jobless claims are forecast to snap back 16k to 280k, while the NAHB housing market index may tick up to 59 in June from 58. Housing starts may sink 0.2% to 1,170 (Friday).

Canada: In Canada, the April manufacturing report and May CPI release highlight this week’s calendar, which also has appearances from Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins. April manufacturing, due Wednesday, is expected to reveal a 1.0% rebound in shipment values following the 0.9% drop in March. Total CPI, due Friday, is seen expanding at a 1.7% annual pace in May following an identical 1.7% y/y gain in April. But total CPI is seen jumping 0.6% m/m in May after the 0.3% gain in April, as higher gasoline prices and depreciation of the Canadian dollar both conspire to drive the index higher relative to April. The Bank of Canada’s core CPI index is projected to expand at a 2.2% y/y pace in May, matching the 2.2% rate in April. But here too we see acceleration in the monthly growth rate, with core CPI seen expanding 0.5% m/m in May after the 0.2% gain in April. Existing home sales for May (Wednesday) and the May Teranet/National home price index (Tuesday) also feature this week. BoC Governor Poloz speaks (Wednesday) at the Yukon Chamber of Commerce, Whitehorse, YT. A press conference will follow the speech. BoC Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins speaks (Friday) to the Canadian Payments Association in Calgary. There is not a press conference.

Europe: Eurozone Finance Ministers will meet again this week and Greece will hope to finally fully complete the bailout review, which would also open the way for the ECB to consider re-instating the waiver on Greek government bonds. This would allow Greek banks to participate in the central bank’s regular refinancing operations and be another step back towards normality. The events calendar also has a German 10-year Bund auction on Wednesday as well as the ECB’s economic bulletin on Thursday and several ECB speakers including Draghi (Friday). The overall message is likely to be the same, namely that the ECB is on hold while keeping the door open for further action if necessary. Data releases won’t change the overall outlook. There is a bunch of final May HICP numbers, with the overall Eurozone reading expected to be confirmed at -0.1% y/y (median same), and core inflation at 0.8% y/y. The ECB already had preliminary numbers at the time of the last meeting and is confident that current measures are sufficient to bring inflation back on a gradual growth path. The Eurozone also has trade numbers, BoP data and industrial production numbers for April. Production is expected to have rebounded slightly and we are looking for a marginal widening of the trade surplus, but overall data are unlikely to change expectations for a slowdown in overall GDP growth in the second quarter of the year.

United Kingdom: In the shadow of the EU vote, the week’s BoE June policy meeting and data calendar won’t carry as much significance as would usually be the case. The BoE’s MPC (announcing Thursday) will more than likely leave the repo rate at 0.5% by unanimous vote, and we don’t expect much deviation in the tone of the minutes to those of last month, nor last month’s edition of the quarterly Inflation Report. UK inflation data (Tuesday) has us expecting a 0.4% y/y reading on headline CPI (median same), up on April’s 0.3% y/y. This would still be below the 0.5% y/y cycle peak that was seen in March. Labour data covering April and May are also up (Wednesday), where we expect an unchanged unemployment rate of 5.1% (median same). Retail sales for May (Thursday) should show a rebound from April weakness. We expect a 3.7% y/y gain versus the -0.9% figure seen in April.

China: In China, May industrial production (today) came in unchanged compared to the 6.0% y/y April result. May retail sales (today) dipped to 10.0% y/y from 10.1% y/y in April. Foreign direct investment (today) dropped to 3.8% y/y clip in May versus 4.8% previously. Money supply figures are expected during the week.

Japan: Japan kicked the week off with the June MoF business outlook survey (BSI Manufacturing Index), which dropped to -11.1, versus the -7.9 reading seen in May. Revised April industrial production (Tuesday) is seen steady at 3.8% y/y. The BoJ is expected to keep policy unchanged at its meeting which culminates on (Thursday). Improved incoming domestic data, including upgraded Q1 GDP, stronger production, and a delay in the increase in the national sales tax proposed for April 2017 should be enough to keep the Bank on hold for now, while Governor Kuroda will likely want to further assess the impact of negative interest rates before easing further. The Q2 Tankan report, due June 30, may give him the data he needs on that front.

Australia: In Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Debelle delivers remarks (Tuesday) at the ASIFMA-GFMA Market Liquidity Conference 2016 in Hong Kong. His appearance will be via video link. Deputy Governor Lowe delivers a speech (Thursday) at the Economic Society of Australia (QLD) Business Lunch in Brisbane. Economic data features May employment (Thursday), expected to reveal a 10.0k gain following the 10.6k rise in April. The unemployment rate is seen at 5.7% in May, matching April.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 14th June 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th June 2016.


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FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets remain under pressure, with most Asian markets down and U.S. and U.K. stock futures also heading south. Risk aversion continues to dominate amid heightened uncertainty ahead of this week’s round of central bank meetings and next week’s Brexit referendum. The focus has shifted to the wider fallout for the EU and Eurozone spreads are widening sharply amid concerns that a U.K. exit from the EU would set a dangerous precedent. The European calendar focuses on inflation data, with U.K. CPI expected to nudge higher to 0.4% y/y from 0.3% y/y in April. Italy and Spain release final May inflation data, and the Eurozone has production numbers for April.

Brexit Polls push a volatile sterling: Three polls yesterday had the Leave camp ahead and the UK largest circulation newspaper (The Sun) openly came out in favour of a Brexit vote. The FT poll of polls now has Remain on 45% Leave on 47% and Undecided at 9%. Seven of the last ten polls have given the Leave camp the lead. UK government gilts have surged on the uncertainty as sterling falls. GBPUSD is trading below 1.4160, GBPJPY is below 150.00 and EURGBP has rallied as high as 0.7880.

US VIX equity volatility surged sharply since Friday considering the relatively mild drops in the S&P500 since then, indicative of heightened sensitivity to downside price action in stocks. The VIX had traded below 13.0 earlier in June to 2-month lows, but surged above 15.0 Friday to clear 17.0. Monday it gapped out above 18.0 to open at 18.24 and closed at the day high of 20.97 (up 23.14% on the day). Certainly it appears that hedging against downside risks via the VIX has proven popular with several major macro fund managers talking down stocks and up gold. That may be especially true after the June peak at 2,120 stopped just shy of all-time highs of 2,134 before touching a low of 2,085 today, while the 200-day m.a. is well south at 2,015. Brexit risks near-term, domestic terror acts and polarizing November elections further out, not to mention global growth risks, remain gusty headwinds for stock investors.

Fed Policy Outlook: No change in policy is expected from the FOMC two day meeting which starts later today, and the market has largely priced out much chance for a hike this year, according to Fed funds futures, which are also benefiting from flight to quality trades. The soft jobs report and lack of a hint from Yellen of an imminent policy shift indicate the FOMC will remain sidelined this week. Brexit uncertainties and fears of financial market instability should the U.K. vote for Brexit next week, along with weaker growth out of Japan and Asia have seen the futures push out a possible tightening until early 2017. The implied February future suggests a 50-50 bet on a 25 bp hike. We’re still expecting two hikes, with the FOMC acknowledging as much in its forecasts on Wednesday, though we note the Fed is running out of time if it wants to effect such action at a regularly slated meeting, since after Wednesday, there will be only four more, with the November 1, 2 dates seemingly out of the running given the elections.

Main Macro Events Today

UK CPI Inflation in Britain is expected to have sped up slightly in May, but overall price pressures remain significantly subdued as both external and internal factors continue to weigh on consumer price growth. The annual rate of UK inflation is expected to have picked up to 0.4% in May, after slipping to 0.3% a month before, mostly on the back of an earlier Easter this year compared with the previous year. Core inflation, which strips out volatile prices of food and energy, is also seen edging up to 1.3% from 1.2% measured a month before.
US Retail Sales US May retail sales data is out today should reveal a 0.6% (median 0.3%) headline increase with a 0.6% (median 0.3%) increase for the ex-autos figure as well. This follows April figures of 1.3% for the headline and 0.8% for ex-autos. The increase in May vehicle sales and our expectations for further gains in gasoline prices should help lift the headline.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 15th June 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th June 2016.


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FX News Today

Stock markets started to stabilise overnight, as the Yen weakened and helped exporters to bounce back ahead of today’s Fed decision. The BoJ is due to follow and some speculation of further central bank action has also underpinned the first improvement in Topix and Nikkei in five days. Chinese reversed early losses and jumped higher, sparking speculation that state-backed funds may be supporting the market, after MSCI Inc. refused to add China’s domestic equities to the benchmarks indexes. U.S. stock futures are still in the red ahead of the Fed, but FTSE 100 futures are moving higher. Oil prices are down, with the front end Nymex future trading below USD 48 per barrel. Nervousness remains ahead of the round of central bank decisions this week and next week’s Brexit referendum. The events will likely overshadow the data calendar once again, which has U.K. labour market data and European trade numbers.

FOMC began its meeting and announces its policy stance this afternoon at 14:00 ET. While a hike today is off the table, the policy statement and Fed forecasts will be scrutinized for clues on the rate path going forward. Outside of the weak May employment report, most pieces of data have been consistent with GDP growth of 2.6% this quarter. Price pressures have also been on the rise. And these factors support expectations that the FOMC will look to normalize further, and perhaps as soon as July, as is out view, as well as the Median estimate from last week’s Survey. The Fed’s dot plot is likely to again show 2 tightenings this year, though the median rate might be revised slightly lower. We also expect Fed Chair Yellen will be cautiously optimistic on the economy in her press conference, while still acknowledging the downside risks, as she did in her June 6 speech.

Canada Household Leverage Remains Near Record High: Canada’s household leverage remained elevated in Q1, as the ratio of household credit market debt to disposable income slipped ever so slightly to 165.3% from a record high 165.4% in Q4. The historically elevated debt to income ratio continues to highlight a prominent risk associated with the current policy setting. However, the Bank of Canada’s focus is growth and inflation, so rising leverage amid the current ultra accommodative rate environment will continue to be taken in stride by policymakers.

Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow was lifted to 2.8% in Q2 from 2.5% previously in the wake of the gain in May retail sales: “The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.8 percent on June 14, up from 2.5 percent on June 9. After this morning’s retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecast for second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 3.5 percent to 3.9 percent. The next GDPNow update is Friday, June 17.”

Yesterday’s US reports revealed the expected May strength in retail sales and surprisingly large trade prices increases, though we also saw restrained business inventory gains that lowered our Q1 GDP growth estimate to 1.1% from 1.2%, versus the 0.8% prior reported pace. For retail sales, we saw only small prior revisions that had no net impact on our GDP forecasts, with expected May gains for gasoline station and auto dealer sales. For trade prices, we saw big increases in oil import and food export prices, but also big core price gains, and with boosts in prior import price gains that trimmed the skewing of recent trade price strength toward exports.

Main Macro Events Today

Canada Manufacturing: We expect manufacturing shipments, due Wednesday, to grow 1.0% in April (median same at +1.0%) after the 0.9% m/m drop in March and 4.0% plunge in February. A 1.5% gain in export values after the 4.1% drop in March and 6.8% plunge in February provides a compelling reason to forecast a gain in manufacturing shipment values during April.

US NY Fed “Empire State” Index: June producer sentiment kicks off with the release of the Empire State Index on Wednesday. We expect the headline to climb to -1.0 (median -4.0) after a tumble to -9.0 in May from 9.6 in April. Producer sentiment as settled back near recent lows with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures hitting 49 again in May after a spike to 53 in March and subsequent dip to 51 in April.

US Industrial Production: May industrial production is out Wednesday and should reveal a 0.2% (median unchanged) headline decline following a 0.7% increase in April and a 0.9% decrease in March. Capacity utilization should fall to 75.2% (median 75.3%) from 75.4% in April. Factory and mining employment both declined in the May employment report which could indicate downside risk for the release.

US FOMC: We expect no rate hike today but the policy statement and Fed forecasts will be scrutinized for clues on the rate path going forward.

Bank of Canada: Governor Poloz speech.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Date : 16th June 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th June 2016.


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FX News Today

European Outlook: The recovery in stock markets didn’t last long and markets headed south again in Asia overnight, with U.S. and U.K. stock futures also under pressure. Fed and BoJ kept policy on hold and while this was largely expected, there were some lingering hopes that at least the BoJ would add further stimulus but with the statement maybe a tad less dovish than expected, the Yen strengthened and Japanese equities sold off, with the Nikkei down -2.98%. The Hang Seng is down -2.20%. The focus now shifts to BoE and SNB meetings today. Again no changes are expected, but with Brexit risks looming the tone of the statements will be watched carefully. Event risks continue to overshadow data releases, which today include U.K. retail sales and the final reading of Eurozone May HICP numbers.

The FOMC left the funds rate unchanged: The Fed again did not define a “balance of risks” and didn’t give any clear indication of the timing of the next hike, though it still expects two more this year. “Growth in economic activity appears to have picked up,” said the statement, but the “pace of improvement in the labor market has slowed.” This contradiction was the opposite in the previous statement, though it also noted that household spending has improved and the drag from net exports has lessened, while business investment has been soft. The Fed again indicated that inflation is running below target. There was no dissent this time from Esther George, (long time hawk), compounding the more dovish interpretation. Likewise, the dot-plot was significantly lowered, growth outlook trimmed and inflation outlook tweaked just slightly higher despite the rebound in energy prices. FOMC forecast revisions released with the policy statement show surprisingly large downward revisions in the official GDP forecasts for 2016, followed by downward bumps across the forecast horizon, leaving a distribution of 2016 Fed estimates that lie almost entirely below our own 2.2% forecast.

BOJ: The Bank of Japan refrained from expanding monetary stimulus as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and his board continues to gauge the economic impact of their unpopular negative-rate policy ahead of an election next month. With the uncertain outlook for global markets also giving reason for pause, the BOJ held its key interest rate at minus 0.1 percent and kept the annual target for expanding the monetary base at 80 trillion yen ($764 billion). Dollar and GBP weakness and yen strength continued following the announcement USDJPY traded as low at 104.04 and GBPJPY as low as the 147.30.

US data reports: Revealed a welcome June Empire State bounce to 6.0 that reversed the May plunge to -9.0, though industrial production underperformed in May with a 0.4% drop led by a 7.0% drop in the vehicle assembly rate to an 11.4 mln clip. The vehicle sector pullback explains May weakness in other payroll and sentiment data, and a likely vehicle sector rebound into the shifting summer retooling period should support a June factory sector bounce as seen with Empire State. We also saw a 0.4% May PPI rise with a firm 0.3% core price increase, as US inflation measures continue to document both a rebound in commodity prices and a firm 2016 core price path.

Main Macro Events Today

Swiss National Bank The official view from SNB remains that prolonged period of low interest rates carries risk for global financial stability. Rates are currently -0.75% and no change is expected. Prolonged period of low interest rates carries risk for global financial stability. The SNB’s baseline scenario assumes that economic conditions for the Swiss banking sector improve. Economic growth picks up moderately in the euro area, but unemployment remains high in many member states. In the US, growth remains robust. Growth in China slows further and some major emerging markets remain in recession. In Switzerland, the recovery continues and unemployment begins to decline slowly after peaking in the second half of 2016.

UK Interest Rate decision No change expected UK rates with a week to the UK Referendum on membership of the EU. CPI has been under pressure and there is a very low probability of interest rate hikes before 1Q 2017. The press conference is always of interest.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
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