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Date: 18th June 2026.
US Dollar Surges as Fed Chair Warsh Signals Higher Rates and Tough Inflation Stance.
A relatively hawkish Federal Reserve chairman saw the US Dollar Index witness new bullish momentum. The US Dollar Index rose more than 1% and is now pressuring the key resistance level at 100.40. If this level is broken, the currency will trade at its highest in more than 12 months.
The new Federal Reserve chairman’s press conference is the reason for yesterday’s volatility. During Kevin Warsh’s press conference, the stock market was quick to decline, as were Gold and oil. The main winner from the press conference is the US Dollar, which continues to be the best-performing currency of the day.
Chairman Warsh strongly emphasised the Fed’s commitment to returning inflation to the 2% target. Analysts were clear to pick up on that the chairman’s statements were definite and did not leave room for a slow progress towards the target or any leeway. In addition to this, during the press conference, the chairman made no reference to supporting the economy. Nor did Mr Warsh reassure economists that he will ensure employment remains stable while bringing inflation down.
Many are now questioning whether the Fed now has one target, inflation, and not employment. This is unlikely, however, many agree that the Fed will be willing for employment to take a slight hit while bringing inflation down to the 2% target. For this reason, the market views the comments as particularly hawkish.
After this meeting, markets shifted toward pricing a much higher probability of rates staying elevated or even rising further. There is now a high probability of rate hikes in 2026, with the Chicago exchange predicting a 32% chance of a rate hike in July. This is significantly higher than the 8% possibility from before the press conference. In addition to this, there is a 33% chance of two interest rate hikes in 2026, up from 14%.
The Chairman was very clear in stating that the FOMC all agreed that the Fed will not provide forward guidance or submit dots. For this reason, investors can expect more volatility during the Fed’s rate decisions compared to the past 10 years.
Lastly, Kevin Warsh reiterated his concerns about the Federal Reserve’s large bond holdings. He also confirmed that the central bank's balance sheet will be reviewed as part of its broader reform efforts. While no immediate policy changes were announced, the review could influence how the Fed manages its assets in the future. Analysts expect this to support the Dollar by limiting supply.
The pair continues to trade above its key moving averages and is holding comfortably above the psychological 1.4000 level. Momentum indicators remain positive, although recent gains suggest the pair may be approaching overbought territory in the short term. As long as price remains above 1.4000, buyers are likely to retain control of the trend.
From a technical perspective, a break above the recent high near 1.4080 could open the door for a move towards 1.4125, with a further bullish target at 1.4160. However, if the pair struggles to sustain gains, a correction towards 1.4000 and 1.3900 cannot be ruled out.
HFM - USDCAD 30-Minutes
As long as Gold remains below $4,340, the near-term bias is likely to remain bearish. Some technical analysts also advise that Gold has the potential to decline to the psychological price of $4,000, which would take us to an eight-month low.
HFM - USDCAD 30-Minutes
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
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Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
US Dollar Surges as Fed Chair Warsh Signals Higher Rates and Tough Inflation Stance.
A relatively hawkish Federal Reserve chairman saw the US Dollar Index witness new bullish momentum. The US Dollar Index rose more than 1% and is now pressuring the key resistance level at 100.40. If this level is broken, the currency will trade at its highest in more than 12 months.
The new Federal Reserve chairman’s press conference is the reason for yesterday’s volatility. During Kevin Warsh’s press conference, the stock market was quick to decline, as were Gold and oil. The main winner from the press conference is the US Dollar, which continues to be the best-performing currency of the day.
Kevin Warsh Press Conference
Analysts were unsure what to expect from Kevin Warsh, as it is well-known that he does not support guidance nor give too much information to journalists. However, the new Chairman did not shy away from affirming how he believes the Federal Reserve should work. It is clear from the market’s reaction and comments from analysts that this was significantly more hawkish than previous expectations.Chairman Warsh strongly emphasised the Fed’s commitment to returning inflation to the 2% target. Analysts were clear to pick up on that the chairman’s statements were definite and did not leave room for a slow progress towards the target or any leeway. In addition to this, during the press conference, the chairman made no reference to supporting the economy. Nor did Mr Warsh reassure economists that he will ensure employment remains stable while bringing inflation down.
Many are now questioning whether the Fed now has one target, inflation, and not employment. This is unlikely, however, many agree that the Fed will be willing for employment to take a slight hit while bringing inflation down to the 2% target. For this reason, the market views the comments as particularly hawkish.
After this meeting, markets shifted toward pricing a much higher probability of rates staying elevated or even rising further. There is now a high probability of rate hikes in 2026, with the Chicago exchange predicting a 32% chance of a rate hike in July. This is significantly higher than the 8% possibility from before the press conference. In addition to this, there is a 33% chance of two interest rate hikes in 2026, up from 14%.
The Chairman was very clear in stating that the FOMC all agreed that the Fed will not provide forward guidance or submit dots. For this reason, investors can expect more volatility during the Fed’s rate decisions compared to the past 10 years.
Lastly, Kevin Warsh reiterated his concerns about the Federal Reserve’s large bond holdings. He also confirmed that the central bank's balance sheet will be reviewed as part of its broader reform efforts. While no immediate policy changes were announced, the review could influence how the Fed manages its assets in the future. Analysts expect this to support the Dollar by limiting supply.
USDCAD - Oil Pressures the CAD as the US Dollar Gains Momentum
USD/CAD remains within a strong bullish trend, supported by a stronger US Dollar. The US Dollar is the best-performing currency of the day. The Canadian Dollar is the worst-performing and is particularly coming under pressure from the lower oil prices.The pair continues to trade above its key moving averages and is holding comfortably above the psychological 1.4000 level. Momentum indicators remain positive, although recent gains suggest the pair may be approaching overbought territory in the short term. As long as price remains above 1.4000, buyers are likely to retain control of the trend.
From a technical perspective, a break above the recent high near 1.4080 could open the door for a move towards 1.4125, with a further bullish target at 1.4160. However, if the pair struggles to sustain gains, a correction towards 1.4000 and 1.3900 cannot be ruled out.
HFM - USDCAD 30-Minutes
Gold - Technical Analysts See New 2026 Low In Sight
Gold remains under pressure as higher US Treasury yields and expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve reduce demand for non-yielding assets. All metals are declining, which further supports Gold weakness. The metal continues to trade below key resistance levels, with momentum indicators favouring sellers in the short term.As long as Gold remains below $4,340, the near-term bias is likely to remain bearish. Some technical analysts also advise that Gold has the potential to decline to the psychological price of $4,000, which would take us to an eight-month low.
HFM - USDCAD 30-Minutes
Key Takeaway Points:
- Warsh reinforced the Fed’s commitment to 2% inflation, delivering a more hawkish message than markets expected.
- Rate hike expectations jumped sharply, with July hike odds rising from 8% to 32%.
- The US Dollar surged, while stocks, Gold, and oil declined following the press conference.
- The Fed will end forward guidance, likely increasing volatility around future policy decisions.
- USD/CAD remains bullish above 1.4000, while Gold risks falling towards the $4,000 level.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
