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Date: 18th May 2026.
US-Iran Tensions, Bond Yields and Gold Pressure Markets.
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Negotiations between the US and Iran are not witnessing progress, and the US is again taking into consideration further attacks. As a result, investors are pricing in further supply chain disruptions due to the Strait of Hormuz remaining shut.
A big concern for the market is the selloff within the global bond market, particularly in the US and UK. The US 10-Year Bond Yield has risen to 4.615%, the highest since January 2025. In addition to the above, investors are also predicting that the possibility of further interest rate hikes will increase as oil prices rise again.
The US and Iran remain deeply divided over an agreement to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Judging by the comments from both representatives over the weekend, the reopening of the Strait any time soon remains unlikely. Meanwhile, a drone attack triggered a fire at a nuclear plant in the United Arab Emirates, while the global bond sell-off intensified amid the ongoing deadlock between Washington and Tehran.
In addition to the above, reports suggest that the US administration is taking into consideration further action against Iran. These include policy measures, Non-military developments as well as further direct attacks on Iran. If the conflict escalates further the market is likely to take on a ‘risk-off’ appetite. As a result, the US Dollar and crude oil may potentially rise further.
During periods of low-risk sentiment, the NASDAQ usually underperforms other major indices. However, today it is outperforming the broader market. Although all indices are declining, the NASDAQ is holding up best. This is likely due to the upcoming NVIDIA earnings report and continued AI-trend optimism.
HFM - NASDAQ 1-Hour
The NASDAQ is trading slightly below the VWAP, which gives a bearish bias, but the price has risen above the key moving average. Indications will depend on whether the price rebounds away from the moving average or if the price continues to rise. If the price falls below $28,992.75, sell signals will arise and will potentially strengthen if it falls further below $28,927.60.
Gold remains under short-term pressure today, with the bias staying bearish while the price trades below the $4,576–$4,580 resistance area. A break below $4,510 could reopen downside towards $4,480 and lower, while a move back above $4,580 would suggest buyers are regaining control, with the next recovery targets around $4,645–$4,700.
Though the price will continue to depend on the US Dollar, bond yields, and developments within the Middle East. According to economists, if bond yields rise to 5.00%, investors are likely to panic and become risk-averse.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
US-Iran Tensions, Bond Yields and Gold Pressure Markets.
Negotiations between the US and Iran are not witnessing progress, and the US is again taking into consideration further attacks. As a result, investors are pricing in further supply chain disruptions due to the Strait of Hormuz remaining shut.
A big concern for the market is the selloff within the global bond market, particularly in the US and UK. The US 10-Year Bond Yield has risen to 4.615%, the highest since January 2025. In addition to the above, investors are also predicting that the possibility of further interest rate hikes will increase as oil prices rise again.
US and Iran Negotiations
Over the weekend, President Trump spoke to members of the media, expressing his frustration with Iran and the lack of progress. The President’s language was particularly aggressive, advising that ‘time is of the essence’.The US and Iran remain deeply divided over an agreement to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Judging by the comments from both representatives over the weekend, the reopening of the Strait any time soon remains unlikely. Meanwhile, a drone attack triggered a fire at a nuclear plant in the United Arab Emirates, while the global bond sell-off intensified amid the ongoing deadlock between Washington and Tehran.
In addition to the above, reports suggest that the US administration is taking into consideration further action against Iran. These include policy measures, Non-military developments as well as further direct attacks on Iran. If the conflict escalates further the market is likely to take on a ‘risk-off’ appetite. As a result, the US Dollar and crude oil may potentially rise further.
NASDAQ Fights The Market’s Risk-Off Sentiment
All global indices fell on Monday due to the low sentiment among investors as bond yields and crude oil prices rise. The rise in bond yields is likely to trigger higher interest rates, even without the Federal Reserve adjusting monetary policy. However, inflation and oil prices also increase the possibility of rate adjustments.During periods of low-risk sentiment, the NASDAQ usually underperforms other major indices. However, today it is outperforming the broader market. Although all indices are declining, the NASDAQ is holding up best. This is likely due to the upcoming NVIDIA earnings report and continued AI-trend optimism.
HFM - NASDAQ 1-Hour
The NASDAQ is trading slightly below the VWAP, which gives a bearish bias, but the price has risen above the key moving average. Indications will depend on whether the price rebounds away from the moving average or if the price continues to rise. If the price falls below $28,992.75, sell signals will arise and will potentially strengthen if it falls further below $28,927.60.
XAUUSD Falls To Its Lowest Since March 2026
During the Asian session, the price of Gold fell quickly close to a two-month low but thereafter was quick to rebound. The decline was triggered by the rise in the Dollar and bond yields. However, the Dollar is now retracing lower but still remains high, pressuring Gold.Gold remains under short-term pressure today, with the bias staying bearish while the price trades below the $4,576–$4,580 resistance area. A break below $4,510 could reopen downside towards $4,480 and lower, while a move back above $4,580 would suggest buyers are regaining control, with the next recovery targets around $4,645–$4,700.
Though the price will continue to depend on the US Dollar, bond yields, and developments within the Middle East. According to economists, if bond yields rise to 5.00%, investors are likely to panic and become risk-averse.
Key Takeaways:
- US-Iran talks remain stalled, keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed and raising fears of further supply-chain disruption.
- Global bond yields continue to rise, increasing pressure on equities and gold while supporting the US Dollar.
- The NASDAQ is outperforming other indices, supported by NVIDIA earnings expectations and continued AI-sector optimism.
- Gold remains under pressure, with higher bond yields and a stronger Dollar pushing XAUUSD near a two-month low.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
