HFMarkets: New market analysis services.

[HFM.]

Date: 10th March 2026.

Gold Climbs: Will Gold Stay Within Its Current Trading Range?

President Trump’s comments regarding a possible end to the Middle East conflict have calmed investors. Crude oil prices fell back to similar prices seen on Friday ($85) and the stock market rose close to last week’s highs.

Investors are positively reacting to G7 nations advising that they will release part of their oil reserves to boost supply. Market sentiment also found support from Trump's comments about the Strait of Hormuz becoming operational again. However, investors are concentrating on Trump’s comments regarding the conflict ending ‘very soon’. Analysts advise that the US administration is attempting to find a way out of the conflict.

Gold Prices Re-Establish Clear Correlation with the US Dollar​

The price of Gold rose 1.70% over the past 24 hours due to the value of the US Dollar declining. The need for safe-haven assets remains as investor confidence has not returned to healthy levels. At the same time markets do not trust any guidance given by the US President though it has been enough to create a change in trend amongst most asset categories.

The price of the US Dollar is supporting higher Gold prices as are Silver and other metals. The US Dollar Index has fallen 1.23% and Silver was one of the first leading indicators signalling Gold could rebound at the $5,000 psychological price. On Monday, while Gold was declining Silver was maintaining its value and rose thereafter, indicating Gold may rebound. The decline in the US Dollar Index further validated this indicating upward price movement which has indeed materialised.

Silver remains key for the analysis of Gold due to its strong correlation. According to the Silver Institute, the global silver market has entered its sixth consecutive year of structural deficit. Analysts project a 67M-ounce shortfall for 2026, while the cumulative deficit from 2021–2025 has already exceeded 800M ounces, roughly one year of global mine production.

Investment demand remains the key growth driver. Physical coin and bar demand may rise 20% to 227M ounces, a three-year high. Returning Western investors and steady demand from India are supporting this growth. Meanwhile, industrial demand may fall about 2% to 650M ounces, a four-year low. Higher silver prices, often $25–$30 per ounce, are weighing on demand. Manufacturers are optimising usage and reducing silver content without affecting product performance.

The correlation between Gold and the Dollar is indicating a slight risk. Gold is maintaining range-bound trading conditions staying within the $5,000 to $5,199 range. However, the US Dollar has formed a bearish breakout falling below its previous range. Therefore, there is a slight sense of divergence and limitation to Gold’s bullish possibilities in the short term. This may also indicate that the US Dollar is oversold.

Like Silver, higher prices are making investors more cautious, but tomorrow’s US Consumer Price Index will be a key price driver nonetheless. For this reason, investors need to stay vigilant as the price rises to $5,200. Though according to the 200-Bar SMA, buy signals will remain as long as the price remains above $5,145.

HFM - XAUUSD 1-Hour Chart

The US Dollar Index​

The US Dollar Index is witnessing a strong decline as investors are reacting to Trump’s comments regarding an end to the conflict, but also to the improvement in the market’s risk appetite. The Dollar is the worst performing currency of the day, while the best performing is the Australian Dollar and Euro.

The price of the US Dollar is partially tied to the developments in the Middle East, however, this week’s calendar also has multiple price drivers. Tomorrow’s US Consumer Price Index (inflation) can create volatility as can Thursday’s Core PCE Price Index and quarterly GDP. These figures will not include aspects of the current conflict as they reflect February’s data, but they can still create volatility and trends. If these three releases read higher than expectations, the price of the Dollar can find further support.

HFM - USDX 1-Hour Chart

Key Takeaways:​

• Markets rise after President Trump signals the Middle East conflict could end soon, improving global investor sentiment.
• Oil prices fall toward $85 as G7 nations plan to release reserves and supply concerns ease.
• Gold gains 1.7% as the US dollar weakens and investors maintain demand for safe-haven assets.
• The Silver market remains in structural deficit, with a projected 67M-ounce shortfall in 2026.
• Upcoming US CPI data may drive volatility in the dollar, gold, and broader financial markets.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 11th March 2026.

AUD Leads All Currencies as the Dollar Loses Momentum.

As the US-Israel-Iran conflict continues for an 11th day, many assets are stabilising, but currencies continue to witness high volatility. The US Dollar saw significant gains in the first few days of the conflict, but has been unable to maintain momentum.

The Australian Dollar remains the best-performing currency as investors are attracted by the country’s hawkish monetary policy, strong economic data, and limited exposure to the Middle East conflict. With gold prices rising, the Australian Dollar is increasingly viewed as a safer option.

Australian Dollar​

The Australian Dollar has risen 7.40% in 2026 so far, significantly ahead of other currencies. The second-best performing is the New Zealand Dollar, which is up 2.85% in 2026.

HFM - AUDUSD 1-Hour Chart

Consumer sentiment data from the country’s largest bank, Westpac Banking Corp., showed a modest improvement today. The index rose by 1.2% to 91.6 points, following a 2.6% decline in the previous month. Within the report, the household financial conditions sub-index increased by 1.8%, while the timing of major purchases sub-index rose by 4.9%.

Meanwhile, the National Australia Bank (NAB) business confidence index, based on a survey of 350 companies and reflecting current business sentiment, came in at 7.0 points.

Market attention has also focused on recent comments from RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, who indicated that the board is expected to discuss the possibility of a further interest rate hike at the upcoming meeting, as uncertainty surrounding the escalation of the Middle East conflict remains elevated.

The Australian Dollar was extremely shorted between 2010 and 2020, and investors are now aiming to unwind some of these previous trades. As a result, these moves support the Australian Dollar. Many investors see Australia as being less at risk of trade conflicts, tariffs and geopolitical tensions. Lastly, the Australian Dollar is also finding support from higher Gold prices, which are trading almost 19% up in 2026.

Traders who are looking to trade the Australian Dollar against a weaker currency than the US Dollar. The USDJPY is also witnessing similar price movements and less conflict. The Japanese Yen is the worst-performing currency of 2026.

The US Dollar​

The US dollar is trading around 98.7 on the USDX amid rising tensions in the Middle East. The tensions involve the United States and Iran. Investors fear disruptions to oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. The route remains blocked by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. There are also concerns about attacks on oil facilities in Persian Gulf countries. Such attacks could push inflation higher in the near term.

At the same time, traders seem less responsive to statements from US President Donald Trump, who says navigation through the strait is safe. However, satellite data shows that no commercial ships have passed through the route since the start of the week.

The halt in oil shipments is already affecting fuel prices in the US, which have risen to $3.34–$3.50 per gallon. This increases household costs and puts pressure on the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

Economic data may also affect the US dollar’s price in the coming days. Investors will watch the US Consumer Price Index, Quarterly GDP, and Core PCE Price Index. Analysts expect today’s inflation reading to remain unchanged from last month, as it will not reflect this month’s rise in oil prices. If inflation is higher than expected, the US dollar may strengthen, while the stock market could decline.

The US Dollar index has fallen back to the previous resistance level. Traders are considering whether the resistance level will flip to support. This can potentially become more likely if today’s inflation rate reads higher than previous expectations.

Key Takeaways:​

• Currency volatility remains high due to the ongoing US–Israel–Iran conflict, even as some financial assets begin stabilising.
• The Australian Dollar is the best-performing currency of 2026 (+7.4%), supported by strong economic data, hawkish monetary policy, and rising gold prices.
• Investors see Australia as less exposed to geopolitical tensions, and are unwinding long-standing short positions supporting the currency.
  The US Dollar initially surged during the conflict, but it is not maintaining momentum as rising fuel costs weigh on sentiment.
• Upcoming US inflation and GDP data may determine if the Dollar strengthens, while the Japanese Yen remains the worst-performing currency.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 12th March 2026.

Oil Tankers Hit: Iran Increases Its Retaliation Attacks Pushing Oil Higher!

Thursday is set for a risk-off sentiment as two oil tankers were hit close to the Strait of Hormuz. In response to the attack, surrounding nations also took protective measures, further reducing risk appetite.

Iraq, which is a member of OPEC and the sixth-largest exporter of oil, shut down most of the country’s oil terminals. Members of the Iraqi government announced that they have suspended most operations temporarily. Oman, also ordered all ships to leave its port as a precautionary measure.

The market is currently playing tug-of-war as to whether the conflict will end soon or if Iran increases its retaliatory attacks and prolongs the war. If Iran intensifies its retaliatory attacks, the US may find it difficult to de-escalate the conflict without suffering reputational damage.

Currently, investors remain pessimistic, causing oil to trade higher, the stock market to dip and safe-haven assets to rise.

Crude Oil - Two Tankers Attacked By Iran Sending Oil Close to $100 Per Barrel!​

HFM - Crude Oil 15-Minute Chart

The US and other major oil producers are attempting to ensure supply shocks remain at a minimum. The IEA has taken the decision to release 400 million barrels of oil in order to support supply to the market. The move does put pressure on prices, but only to a small extent, particularly if the conflict continues in the long term.

According to oil analysts, 400 million barrels is a significant figure, but the flow rate to the market is a maximum of 2 million barrels per day. Therefore, it would take a minimum of 200 days for the IEA to ensure the reserves reach the market. For this reason, the move puts pressure on prices but to a smaller extent due to rising tensions.

Oil prices opened with a bullish price gap measuring 2.85% and continued to rise to above $96. However, the price is now correcting and falling back to the day’s open price. However, even the open price of $90 per barrel remains elevated. On a two-hour timeframe the price remains above most moving averages indicating the bullish bias remains. However, up and down spikes remain frequent.

On smaller timeframes such as the five-minute chart, the price of oil is showing strong bearish momentum, but the price is now at the 200-bar SMA. The 200-bar SMA can act as a support level which technical analysts will be following closely. If the price remains above $89, the short term bullish bias may remain, particularly if Iran continues to attack oil supply chains.

Gold - Gold Rises Despite Dollar Pressures​

The price of Gold fell in the early hours of the Asian session as traders reacted to an expensive Dollar. However, as the need for safe-haven assets became apparent, the price of Gold rose.

The US inflation release on Tuesday afternoon was modestly positive, as inflation remained relatively stable and low. However, this data predates the recent surge in oil prices, which have since risen to a four-year high. The US inflation rate remained at 2.4%.

Silver and Palladium are also increasing in value indicating the price of Gold may remain high. The main concern for Gold buyers is the US Dollar which also rose this morning. For buy signals to remain valid for Gold, technical analysts will be looking for the US Dollar Index to remain below 99.00.

NASDAQ - Stocks Temporarily Rise But Cannot Maintain Momentum​

Earlier this week, US President Donald Trump told viewers that the main phase of US operations in Iran may be coming to an end. He also said that most objectives have already been achieved. This initially improved market sentiment and increased traders’ appetite for risk assets such as stocks and higher-yield currencies.

The NASDAQ rose for two consecutive days, particularly as investors wanted to take advantage of the lower entry levels. However, escalations again rise, the stock market has come under pressure.

HFM - NASDAQ 30-Minute Chart

Generally, the situation remains uncertain. Iranian authorities have reportedly rejected diplomatic talks and continue to maintain the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route. Due to this, analysts believe a quick resolution is unlikely. Some now warn that the conflict could last for several months. If disruptions to global energy supply continue, oil prices could remain elevated. This could increase inflation risks and potentially force central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer.

If global central banks opt to increase interest rates and the conflict continues longer than previously projected, the stock market could fall by 13%, according to analysts. However, this is something traders will continue to monitor.

Key Takeaways:​

• Attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and precautionary measures by Iraq and Oman increased uncertainty and boosted safe-haven demand.
• Oil opened with a bullish gap and rose above $96 as markets feared disruptions to global energy supply.
• The IEA plans to release 400 million barrels, but limited daily supply means the process could take about 200 days.
• Gold initially fell due to a stronger US dollar but later rebounded as investors sought safe-haven assets.
• The NASDAQ briefly rose on de-escalation hopes, but renewed tensions and higher oil prices may pressure stocks.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.