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[HFM.]

Date: 6th January 2026.

Nikkei 225 Leads Amid US-Japan Cooperation and BOJ Policy.

The Nikkei 225, along with Asian stocks more broadly, has been among the best-performing markets in the first week of 2026. These instruments have risen over 3.5% in recent days, more than double the gains of US and EU assets. Japanese Stocks have been increasing in value for 3 consecutive years, and with the index starting the year on a high, traders are paying close attention to developments.

Economists note that stocks are performing well globally and the bullish price movement is not solely seen in Japan. However, certain developments are favoring Japan in the absence of economic releases due to the holidays. For example, the growing relationship between the US and Japan.

HFM - NIKKEI225 1-Hour Chart

Japan Does Not Condemn US Military Action In​

US President Donald Trump has invited Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi for an official visit to the United States later in 2026, likely in the spring, aimed at strengthening economic and security ties amid rising tensions in East Asia. In addition to this, Japan has chosen not to condemn the US actions in Venezuela, unlike China and Russia.

Again this can prompt more favorable relations in the future, such as lower tariffs and more trade. A vital factor for the Japanese economy.

Bank of Japan &​

In addition to the above, factors from 2025 also continue to support the Nikkei 225. This primarily includes the higher wages which has been agreed with trade unions, and the Bank Of Japan's dovishness. Market participants in the first few months of 2025 advised they expect the BOJ's rate to rise to 1.00%. However, rates have only risen to 0.75% and the committee refuses to give concrete guidance for further rate hikes.

As a result, the dovishness of the Central Bank continues to support Japanese stocks. However, this is something which could potentially change in the upcoming months. If the BOJ does take a more hawkish tone, then the stock market may come under some pressure unless wages also increase.

Are Oil Prices About to Fall and What Would That Mean for Stocks​

Oil is expected to be one of the most closely watched assets in 2026. Traders should be mindful that movements in oil have a significant impact on inflation, interest rates, and consumer demand. As a result, fluctuations in oil prices can strongly influence both currency and equity markets.

Last Saturday, President Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, were arrested and transferred to a pretrial detention facility in Brooklyn. They could face charges related to narcoterrorism and weapons possession as early as today. While this escalation in political tensions briefly affected investor sentiment at the start of the trading session, it has not triggered a wave of new trades yet.

This muted market reaction is likely due to the fact that the US blockade on oil exports remains in place, preventing tankers from leaving the country's ports. Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to keep output unchanged for February and March despite disagreements between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while reaffirming its flexibility to reinstate previously lifted production cuts of 1.65 million and 2.2 million barrels per day.

If these developments eventually prompt higher supply, the price of crude oil can decline further. If prices and inflation falls, the global stock market potentially can rise, particularly if interest rates also fall.

HFM - Crude Oil 1-Hour Chart

Key Takeaways​

• The Nikkei 225 and Asian stocks have started 2026 strongly, rising over 3.5%.
• Closer US-Japan ties and Japan's neutral stance on Venezuela support positive investor sentiment.
• The Bank of Japan's cautious, dovish policy continues to underpin stock market strength.
• Oil price movements remain critical, influencing inflation, interest rates, and global equity performance.
• Maduro's arrest and OPEC+ output decisions have had limited immediate impact on markets.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

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Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 7th January 2026.

US Stock Futures Steady as Investors Await Key Jobs Data After Record Wall Street Rally.

US stock futures were little changed early Wednesday, as investors paused after Wall Street pushed deeper into record territory and shifted focus towards a crucial week of US labour market data that could influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures traded flat. Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.1%, reflecting cautious positioning following Tuesday’s strong rally. US stocks advanced during regular trading despite lingering geopolitical tensions after US military action in Venezuela over the weekend.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed the 49,000 mark for the first time, securing its second consecutive record close. The S&P 500 also finished at an all-time high, continuing its move towards the 7,000 level.

Attention is now firmly on a packed US economic calendar, as data releases begin to normalise following recent disruptions. On Tuesday, figures showed signs of slowing momentum in the services sector, with S&P Global’s final Services PMI for December marking the weakest expansion in eight months.

Today, investors are focused on the release of ADP’s monthly report on private-sector employment. The report has shown job losses in three of the past four months, though forecasts point to a modest rebound in hiring. Markets will also assess November’s JOLTS data, which tracks job openings, voluntary quits, and layoffs, key indicators of labour market tightness.

These releases set the stage for Friday’s December nonfarm payrolls report, which investors see as a critical gauge of whether the US economy is cooling enough to support potential changes in Federal Reserve policy.

The CES 2026 technology conference continues to shape market sentiment, as ambitious forecasts from industry leaders contrast with more cautious assessments from Wall Street.

Nvidia remains a focal point, with analysts divided over whether the stock is approaching bubble-like valuations or entering another phase of rapid growth fuelled by demand for artificial intelligence.

In Asia, Japanese equities recorded their strongest start to a year in several decades, supported by heavy buying from overseas investors and domestic individuals.

The Topix and Nikkei 225 extended gains on Tuesday, lifting their two-day advances to 3.8% and 4.3%, respectively. Bloomberg-compiled data showed this was the strongest performance for the first two trading days of a year since at least 1990.

Despite the rally, concerns persist about the sustainability of the AI-driven surge and ongoing geopolitical risks. Analysts said attention surrounding Venezuela is likely to shift towards the responses of China, Russia, and India. Masayuki Doshida, senior market analyst at Rakuten Securities, said that ‘depending on how developments unfold, this could become a geopolitical risk that draws attention’.

Buying has been concentrated in large-cap Japanese stocks. Compared with US equities, Japanese stocks continue to trade at lower price-to-earnings ratios, supporting foreign investor demand, according to Hideyuki Ishiguro, chief strategist at Nomura Asset Management.

Some analysts also pointed to increased retail participation, as individual investors add funds to tax-free NISA accounts at the start of the new year.

Market optimism has also been supported by expectations of improving corporate earnings, stronger corporate governance, and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s pro-stimulus policies, alongside resilience in US markets and hopes for US interest-rate cuts.

Much of the earnings recovery has already been priced in, Doshida said, adding that if profits exceed expectations, the Nikkei 225 could rise to 55,000 or higher. The index closed at a record 52,518.08 on Tuesday.

Gold prices edged lower as investors looked beyond heightened geopolitical tensions and refocused on upcoming US economic data.

Bullion traded near $4,470 an ounce after rising more than 4% over the previous three sessions. President Donald Trump said Venezuela would deliver up to 50 million barrels of oil to the US, while the White House declined to rule out military force to acquire Greenland. China, meanwhile, imposed export controls on goods shipped to Japan with potential military uses.

Gold recently recorded its strongest annual performance since 1979, supported by central-bank buying and inflows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds.

Silver posted an even sharper rally last year, rising nearly 150% amid supply constraints and concerns over potential US import tariffs. Silver fell as much as 2.2% on Wednesday but remains up 12% so far this year, supported by strong retail demand, particularly in China.

Analysts warned that near-term pressure could emerge from commodity index rebalancing, as passive funds adjust holdings to reflect new weightings.

Citigroup estimated that rebalancing across the two largest commodity indices could lead to outflows of about $6.8 billion from gold futures and a similar amount from silver.

By early afternoon in Singapore, gold was down 0.6% at $4,466.04 an ounce. Silver fell 1.9% to $79.69, platinum dropped 4.2%, and palladium declined 2.9%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.