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[HFM.]

Date: 6th January 2026.

Nikkei 225 Leads Amid US-Japan Cooperation and BOJ Policy.

The Nikkei 225, along with Asian stocks more broadly, has been among the best-performing markets in the first week of 2026. These instruments have risen over 3.5% in recent days, more than double the gains of US and EU assets. Japanese Stocks have been increasing in value for 3 consecutive years, and with the index starting the year on a high, traders are paying close attention to developments.

Economists note that stocks are performing well globally and the bullish price movement is not solely seen in Japan. However, certain developments are favoring Japan in the absence of economic releases due to the holidays. For example, the growing relationship between the US and Japan.

HFM - NIKKEI225 1-Hour Chart

Japan Does Not Condemn US Military Action In​

US President Donald Trump has invited Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi for an official visit to the United States later in 2026, likely in the spring, aimed at strengthening economic and security ties amid rising tensions in East Asia. In addition to this, Japan has chosen not to condemn the US actions in Venezuela, unlike China and Russia.

Again this can prompt more favorable relations in the future, such as lower tariffs and more trade. A vital factor for the Japanese economy.

Bank of Japan &​

In addition to the above, factors from 2025 also continue to support the Nikkei 225. This primarily includes the higher wages which has been agreed with trade unions, and the Bank Of Japan's dovishness. Market participants in the first few months of 2025 advised they expect the BOJ's rate to rise to 1.00%. However, rates have only risen to 0.75% and the committee refuses to give concrete guidance for further rate hikes.

As a result, the dovishness of the Central Bank continues to support Japanese stocks. However, this is something which could potentially change in the upcoming months. If the BOJ does take a more hawkish tone, then the stock market may come under some pressure unless wages also increase.

Are Oil Prices About to Fall and What Would That Mean for Stocks​

Oil is expected to be one of the most closely watched assets in 2026. Traders should be mindful that movements in oil have a significant impact on inflation, interest rates, and consumer demand. As a result, fluctuations in oil prices can strongly influence both currency and equity markets.

Last Saturday, President Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, were arrested and transferred to a pretrial detention facility in Brooklyn. They could face charges related to narcoterrorism and weapons possession as early as today. While this escalation in political tensions briefly affected investor sentiment at the start of the trading session, it has not triggered a wave of new trades yet.

This muted market reaction is likely due to the fact that the US blockade on oil exports remains in place, preventing tankers from leaving the country's ports. Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to keep output unchanged for February and March despite disagreements between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while reaffirming its flexibility to reinstate previously lifted production cuts of 1.65 million and 2.2 million barrels per day.

If these developments eventually prompt higher supply, the price of crude oil can decline further. If prices and inflation falls, the global stock market potentially can rise, particularly if interest rates also fall.

HFM - Crude Oil 1-Hour Chart

Key Takeaways​

• The Nikkei 225 and Asian stocks have started 2026 strongly, rising over 3.5%.
• Closer US-Japan ties and Japan's neutral stance on Venezuela support positive investor sentiment.
• The Bank of Japan's cautious, dovish policy continues to underpin stock market strength.
• Oil price movements remain critical, influencing inflation, interest rates, and global equity performance.
• Maduro's arrest and OPEC+ output decisions have had limited immediate impact on markets.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyze the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 7th January 2026.

US Stock Futures Steady as Investors Await Key Jobs Data After Record Wall Street Rally.

US stock futures were little changed early Wednesday, as investors paused after Wall Street pushed deeper into record territory and shifted focus towards a crucial week of US labour market data that could influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures traded flat. Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.1%, reflecting cautious positioning following Tuesday’s strong rally. US stocks advanced during regular trading despite lingering geopolitical tensions after US military action in Venezuela over the weekend.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed the 49,000 mark for the first time, securing its second consecutive record close. The S&P 500 also finished at an all-time high, continuing its move towards the 7,000 level.

Attention is now firmly on a packed US economic calendar, as data releases begin to normalise following recent disruptions. On Tuesday, figures showed signs of slowing momentum in the services sector, with S&P Global’s final Services PMI for December marking the weakest expansion in eight months.

Today, investors are focused on the release of ADP’s monthly report on private-sector employment. The report has shown job losses in three of the past four months, though forecasts point to a modest rebound in hiring. Markets will also assess November’s JOLTS data, which tracks job openings, voluntary quits, and layoffs, key indicators of labour market tightness.

These releases set the stage for Friday’s December nonfarm payrolls report, which investors see as a critical gauge of whether the US economy is cooling enough to support potential changes in Federal Reserve policy.

The CES 2026 technology conference continues to shape market sentiment, as ambitious forecasts from industry leaders contrast with more cautious assessments from Wall Street.

Nvidia remains a focal point, with analysts divided over whether the stock is approaching bubble-like valuations or entering another phase of rapid growth fuelled by demand for artificial intelligence.

In Asia, Japanese equities recorded their strongest start to a year in several decades, supported by heavy buying from overseas investors and domestic individuals.

The Topix and Nikkei 225 extended gains on Tuesday, lifting their two-day advances to 3.8% and 4.3%, respectively. Bloomberg-compiled data showed this was the strongest performance for the first two trading days of a year since at least 1990.

Despite the rally, concerns persist about the sustainability of the AI-driven surge and ongoing geopolitical risks. Analysts said attention surrounding Venezuela is likely to shift towards the responses of China, Russia, and India. Masayuki Doshida, senior market analyst at Rakuten Securities, said that ‘depending on how developments unfold, this could become a geopolitical risk that draws attention’.

Buying has been concentrated in large-cap Japanese stocks. Compared with US equities, Japanese stocks continue to trade at lower price-to-earnings ratios, supporting foreign investor demand, according to Hideyuki Ishiguro, chief strategist at Nomura Asset Management.

Some analysts also pointed to increased retail participation, as individual investors add funds to tax-free NISA accounts at the start of the new year.

Market optimism has also been supported by expectations of improving corporate earnings, stronger corporate governance, and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s pro-stimulus policies, alongside resilience in US markets and hopes for US interest-rate cuts.

Much of the earnings recovery has already been priced in, Doshida said, adding that if profits exceed expectations, the Nikkei 225 could rise to 55,000 or higher. The index closed at a record 52,518.08 on Tuesday.

Gold prices edged lower as investors looked beyond heightened geopolitical tensions and refocused on upcoming US economic data.

Bullion traded near $4,470 an ounce after rising more than 4% over the previous three sessions. President Donald Trump said Venezuela would deliver up to 50 million barrels of oil to the US, while the White House declined to rule out military force to acquire Greenland. China, meanwhile, imposed export controls on goods shipped to Japan with potential military uses.

Gold recently recorded its strongest annual performance since 1979, supported by central-bank buying and inflows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds.

Silver posted an even sharper rally last year, rising nearly 150% amid supply constraints and concerns over potential US import tariffs. Silver fell as much as 2.2% on Wednesday but remains up 12% so far this year, supported by strong retail demand, particularly in China.

Analysts warned that near-term pressure could emerge from commodity index rebalancing, as passive funds adjust holdings to reflect new weightings.

Citigroup estimated that rebalancing across the two largest commodity indices could lead to outflows of about $6.8 billion from gold futures and a similar amount from silver.

By early afternoon in Singapore, gold was down 0.6% at $4,466.04 an ounce. Silver fell 1.9% to $79.69, platinum dropped 4.2%, and palladium declined 2.9%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 8th January 2026.

US Stocks Pause as Oil Politics, Gold Volatility, and Macro Risks Intensify.

Wall Street opened Thursday with a softer tone as US stock futures pulled back following a choppy session that ended several days of gains for major indices. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones briefly hit fresh intraday peaks before reversing lower, while the Nasdaq held up better thanks to tech leadership.

This pause in equities reflects growing macro risk, geopolitical headlines, and commodity volatility, with markets increasingly pricing in uncertainty across multiple fronts.

Rotation and Risk Appetite​

US stock futures dipped on Thursday morning as traders reset after a volatile session. Technology and growth stocks were mixed, while broader benchmarks like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones showed signs of fatigue after reaching intraday highs earlier in the week.

The Nasdaq Composite outperformed peers, supported by strength in megacap tech, including a rally in Alphabet shares that briefly lifted its market value above Apple’s, highlighting how leadership remains narrow and selective.

Oil Markets & Geopolitical Risk: Venezuela in Focus​

Markets are digesting fresh developments out of Venezuela, where the US government’s involvement in energy exports has intensified geopolitical risk for markets and commodities.

US Policy Shift on Venezuelan Oil​

The Trump administration has signalled an intent to control Venezuelan crude exports and manage revenues through US channels moving forward. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that the US plans to control future sales of Venezuelan oil indefinitely, a major shift in energy policy that could reshape regional supply dynamics and global risk premia.

Reuters also reported that oil sales from Venezuela to the US are expected to continue indefinitely, with sanctions being eased to allow initial shipments of more than 50 million barrels to flow to US markets.

Market Reaction & Sector Implications​

These developments have moved oil-related equities. US oil stocks rose as investors priced in a potential revival of Venezuelan production and renewed access for major energy firms. Chevron, already the only US company with operational access, saw its position strengthen amid investor speculation. However, analysts caution that execution risks remain high due to Venezuela’s dilapidated infrastructure and political backlash, underscoring how geopolitical headlines can quickly shift from tailwinds to volatility drivers.

Key Macro Catalysts This Week​

1. Friday Jobs Report​

The upcoming US labour market report for December will be a major market focal point. With fewer major economic prints on the calendar, traders are assigning outsized importance to payrolls, unemployment figures, and wage growth data, all of which could meaningfully shift expectations around growth and monetary policy heading into Q1.

2. Supreme Court & Tariff Decisions​

Headline risk remains elevated as markets await potential legal clarity on tariffs imposed under the Trump administration. The Supreme Court’s opinion, expected imminently, could add another layer of market impact, particularly for sectors sensitive to trade policy and input costs.

Gold & Silver: Technical Alert in Precious Metals​

Commodities experienced a marked shift this week, particularly gold and silver, which had been among the most crowded trades heading into 2026.

After strong gains in late 2025, both metals are now pulling back:

• Gold has retraced close to its key support zone near the 100- and 200-hour moving average, a critical technical juncture for buyers.
• Silver is similarly testing its own 200-hour average, with recent price action indicating increased volatility and short-term bearish risk.

These moves illustrate how even favoured consensus trades can unwind rapidly when macro headlines and price risk align against them, a valuable reminder that risk management remains paramount for commodities positioning.

This Week’s Market Summary​

Bullish Forces

• Tech leadership at CES, with AI and silicon innovation driving investor interest.
• Continued risk appetite supporting broader equity markets.
• Potential long-term energy supply implications from US–Venezuela policy developments.

Bearish/Volatility Drivers

• Macro uncertainty around labour market data and fiscal policy.
• Geopolitical risk in oil markets and trade policy headline risk.
• Corrections in crowded consensus positions like gold and silver.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 9th January 2026.

NFP Alert! Markets Search for Direction as Oil & Gold Rise and Defence Stocks Surge.

Asian stock markets edged modestly lower on Friday, while the US dollar remained supported, as investors turned cautious ahead of key US non-farm payrolls data and a highly anticipated US Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Donald Trump’s global tariff policy, a decision that could reintroduce volatility across financial markets.

Market sentiment remained fragile amid elevated geopolitical tensions, which continued to underpin oil prices and support defence stocks. Developments in Venezuela, including a high-profile US military operation in Caracas, remained in focus. However, the dominant drivers for markets were political risk, macro uncertainty, and legal event risk, keeping investors sidelined ahead of major catalysts.

Asian Stock Markets Trade Mixed as Event Risk Limits Positioning​

Across Asia, trading conditions remained subdued. MSCI’s broad Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan slipped 0.07%, hovering just below record highs reached earlier in the week.

Japan’s Nikkei outperformed regional peers, rallying 1.53% after Fast Retailing, the operator of the Uniqlo brand, reported strong earnings and issued upbeat guidance, providing a boost to Japanese equities.

European equity futures pointed to a mixed open, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures up 0.37%, while FTSE futures edged 0.20% lower.

Wall Street Steadies as Defence Stocks Surge on Budget Expectations​

US stock markets ended the previous session largely unchanged, although defence and aerospace stocks extended gains, pushing the sector to fresh record highs. European defence stocks also continued to attract inflows, reflecting rising geopolitical risks and renewed focus on military spending.

Defence stocks surged after President Donald Trump called for a significant increase in US military spending, proposing a defence budget of $1.5 trillion by 2027, up sharply from the current level of around $901 billion. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the higher budget would help build a ‘Dream Military’ and argued that strong tariff-generated revenues would make the increase affordable.

Today, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures traded lower as investors positioned cautiously ahead of US labour market data.

US Non-Farm Payrolls in Focus as Fed Rate Cut Expectations Persist​

Recent US data has pointed to cooling labour demand, with companies increasingly relying on productivity gains rather than expanding payrolls. Economists expect December’s non-farm payrolls report to show moderate job growth of around 60,000, alongside a slight decline in the unemployment rate to 4.5% from 4.6%.

The US economy shed 105,000 jobs in October, the steepest monthly decline in nearly five years, largely due to deferred buyouts among federal employees. Despite signs of softening, markets continue to price in at least two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, even as policymakers’ December projections suggested a more cautious outlook. The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting.

Gold Prices Rise Despite Stronger Dollar and Commodity Index Rebalancing​

Gold prices edged higher today, extending weekly gains, even as a firmer US dollar and commodity index rebalancing pressures weighed on sentiment. Investors continued to position defensively ahead of US jobs data and broader policy uncertainty.

Gold rose 0.41% to $4,470.57 an ounce by 05:36 GMT, putting bullion on track for a weekly gain of more than 3%. Gold previously touched a record high of $4,549.71 on December 26. Meanwhile, US gold futures for February delivery gained 0.22% to $4,470.60.

The move higher came despite the US dollar trading near a one-month high, a factor that typically weighs on gold prices by increasing costs for non-dollar buyers. Markets were also watching for the Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s use of emergency tariff powers, adding another layer of uncertainty.

⏯️ Watch Our Live NFP Coverage Today

Traders and investors looking for real-time insights on today’s US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report can join our live streaming session. My colleague Michalis, HFM analyst, will break down the jobs data as it comes out, discuss impacts on gold, defence stocks, FX, and equities, and provide actionable market commentary.

Gold prices could face near-term pressure as the annual rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index gets underway. The process adjusts commodity weightings based on recent price performance and market conditions, potentially triggering futures selling.

This could result in futures contracts being sold in the market to comply with rebalancing requirements. An estimated $6.8 billion in silver futures and a similar amount in gold futures are projected to be sold, following the strong precious metals rally that increased their index weightings.

Nevertheless, Valecha noted that the longer-term fundamentals supporting gold and silver remain intact, suggesting any pullback may be technical rather than driven by a shift in underlying demand.

Dollar Steady, Yen weakens Oil Prices Extend Weekly Gains​

In currency markets, the US dollar index edged 0.03% higher to 98.97. The euro slipped 0.04% to $1.1653, while the Japanese yen weakened 0.31% against the dollar.

The USD held its ground, particularly against the yen, with USDJPY climbing at 157.25. This strength came despite robust Japanese data showing household spending jumped 2.9% year-on-year in Novemberwell above expectations, and surged 6.2% month-on-month. While these numbers signal short-term resilience in consumer activity, the broader outlook remains fragile as real wages continue to decline, falling 2.8% y/y and weighing on purchasing power.

The yen, however, appeared more affected by renewed tensions over China’s restrictions on rare-earth and magnet exports to Japan, a move tied to Taiwan-related remarks. Japanese officials expressed serious concern, indicating the matter would be raised with G7 partners and US counterparts, injecting a geopolitical risk premium into JPY trading.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.