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[HFM.]

Date : 29th July 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 29th July 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD, Since the recent advance through the upper daily chart channel line was penetrated, and the fact that price remains within a 12 month decline, a further corrective bounce for medium term traders towards the 1.1220’s should not be ruled out. We will likely witness a potential breakdown back towards the 1.0870’s, ahead of my longer term price projection near the 1.0750’s. Swing traders with a short term view may look for price to return towards the 1.0970’s before flipping to the long side for a retest of the 1.1120’s.

The EUR has been trading off of the back of positive data this week, as German business and consumer confidence data came in firmer than expected; earlier today the German July Gfk held unchanged from June at 10.1. The consensus had been for a slight dip, to 10.0. High employment and expectations for higher pay underpinned the report. The EURUSD price advanced from Monday’s solid German Ifo results may consolidate ahead of today’s U.S. FOMC Statement.

Traders are waiting on the FOMC in the U.S., which concludes its two-day meeting today. No surprises are likely, and while the overall tone is expected to be more upbeat than the previous FOMC in June, the Fed is not likely to commit to a September rate lift-off. This is due to key data releases, concerns about China’s financial markets and Greece, and given recent oil price declines.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

The GBP is trading firmer against the AUD, CAD and the NZD after better than forecast GBP Net Lending to Individuals’ data were released today.

The AUD and the CAD trade lower against most pairs, as commodity prices continue to seek a bottom.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR Gfk German Consumer Climate : The July Gfk consumer confidence came in firmer than expected, holding unchanged from June at 10.1,though concerns about Greece’s potential impact on the German economy remained a negative, according to Gfk.

• USD FOMC Statement: No surprises are likely, and while the overall tone is likely to be more upbeat than the previous FOMC in June, it’s widely anticipated that the FOMC will be moderately net bullish for the dollar.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 3rd August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 3rd August 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD, continues to seek support from buyers as price remains above the downward channel line. The EUR found support around the 1.0920’s, as the USD dropped on Friday following weaker than expected U.S. Q2 ECI data. In my July 29th analysis, I reported that EURUSD price “may return towards the 1.0970’s, before flipping to the long side for a re-test of the 1.1120’s.” The fact that recent price action has exceeded the 1.0970’s to test and establish a higher low at 1.0920 from the July 20th low of 1.0808, opens up a renewed recovery towards the July 27th 1.1120’s resistance area. Price may now attempt to extend the recovery to the 1.1220’s before resumption of the multi-week decline.

Friday saw better EU inflation data as inflation remained stable at 0.2%, although, it was weaker than U.S. employment data, which sent the EURUSD sharply lower. The move was seen by the market as overdone and the EURUSD quickly made it back to test the 1.10’s.

The U.S. Fed funds median still shows a 25 bp rate hike in September, Key reports are on tap this week, including payrolls, PMIs, income, and spending.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous five day close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

The GBP is trading firmer against the majors on the back of accelerating UK GDP data.

The CAD trades lower against most pairs, as Canada missed GDP expectations.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• UK Manufacturing PMI: There is downside risk after last week’s July CBI industrial trends survey unexpectedly declined to a -10 in the realized sales reading, which was the weakest since July 2013, reflecting the UK manufacturing sector’s sensitivity to the prevailing trade-weighted strength of the pound.

• USD Manufacturing PMI: July ISM will be released today and it’s expected that the headline to remain steady at 53.5 (median 53.8) for a second month.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 4th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 4th August 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD, continues to trade within a multi-week downtrend; this is confirmed by the fact of lower tops and bottoms on price. The failed attack on the 31st of July to break above the 1.1120’s also supports the view that the bears are in control of the medium term EURUSD market. However, for the moment, price seems to be consolidating between a tight range within the 1.0920’s and 1.0970’s with traders seeking direction from the U.S. NFP release, due out on Friday. Technically, I would like to see price hold above the 1.0810’s – 1.0920’s after the upcoming NFP release for a potential short term price recovery to re-visit the 1.1220’s, before resuming the multi-week downtrend to reach my target price near the 1.0750’s.

The EU Outlook was revised down to negative from stable by S&P. The ratings agency is worried about the EU’s continual use of the balance sheet to provide higher risk financing to members without the members paying in capital.

The U.S. Market ISM manufacturing index inched up to 53.8 in July, from a 20-month low of 53.8 in June. This is the first pick up in manufacturing activity since March, but is the slowest pace of purchasing activity in 18 months. U.S. personal income rose 0.4% in June with spending up 0.2%, a little better than forecast; however, May’s 0.5% income gain was revised down to 0.4%.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

The AUD is trading firmer against the majors on the back of a RBA statement that droped the call for more depreciation.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• GBP PMI Construction: Unexpectedly declined to 57.1 in July from June’s 58.1. The median forecast had been for an improvement to 58.5. At 57.1, the survey still points to continuing robust expansion in the sector, while incoming mortgage and house price data suggest that underlying conditions remain solid.

• USD Factory Orders: The forecast calls for a 0.8% increase from the previous -1.0%.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 5th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 5th August 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD, closed sharply lower on Tuesday in the wake of fresh comments from the U.S. Fed’s Lockhart who suggested that “upcoming U.S. economic data would have to disappoint significantly to get the FOMC to delay a tightening in September.” The market reacted to the hawkish comments with the fresh buying of U.S. dollars, accelerating the downward pressure on the EURUSD pair. Now that the EURUSD has broken through the support turned resistance area of the 1.0920’s, and the fact that price has failed to hold a new higher low above the 1.1120.s, as well as, bearish momentum oscillator analysis, this leads me to hold firm my view that EURUSD prices will continue to trade firmly lower within the multi-week downward price channel towards my target area near the 1.0750’s over the coming days.

As the interest rate spread between the USD and the GBP against the EUR widens, and the expectation that the U.S. and the U.K will begin to raise rates, further supports the buying interest in the U.S. dollar and the British pound in the near term. Traders should also take note of the recent hawkish comments from the BoE and the Fed board members who have been dropping clues of pending rate hikes.

The AUD made a large move on Tuesday following better than expected trade and retail sales data, and then a change in language in the RBA statement following the anticipated decision to leave the cast rate at 2.0%. The Board said in its statement that “the Australian dollar is adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices.” The AUDUSD rallied nearly 165 pips on the statement.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

The GBP is trading higher against the majors as the latest PMI data continued to show solid growth. The AUD is retracing lower after yesterday’s strong advance.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR Services PMI: The services reading was revised to 53.9 from 53.8 and the composite to 53.9 from 53.7. Overall, the Eurozone economy is so far showing resilience and data is consistent with the ECB’s assessment that economic activity continues to broaden.

• USD ISM Non-Manufacturing: July service sector producer sentiment is out on later today and should reveal a 56.0 (median 56.2) headline for the month, steady from June. Other measures of producer sentiment for the month have been mixed but should allow the ISM-adjusted average for July to maintain the increase to 53 that we saw in June.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 6th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 5th August 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD has a short term support level near the 1.0850’s and resistance levels around 1.0990’s – 1.1020’s. The short term trend is now negative, and trading in line with the ECB’s dovish position to increase the supply of EURs on the market. Short term EURUSD traders may look to re-sell into strength if prices extend past the 1.0990’s – 1.1020’s resistance levels, ideally between the 1.10’s – 1.1050’s for a 1.0750’s price target.

Further negativity on the EUR comes from the much weaker than expected Eurozone retail sales, which fell 0.6% m/m, keeping the euro under pressure, offsetting an upward revision in final Eurozone services and composite PMI survey data for July. The fact that both the U.S. and the U.K. are seeking to raise their rates is giving traders enough reasons to support both the US dollar and the British pound, adding to EUR selling pressures.

On Wednesday, the U.S. ADP employment report missed expectations; however, the July services ISM posted a 10-year high. The EURUSD rallied to session highs around 1.0930 after the employment data, and then fell to session lows near 1.0850 following the ISM outcome.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)
The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

The AUD is trading lower against the majors as commodity prices have been weakening. CFTC data also reports that net speculative short positions have increased for the AUD. The USD, EUR, GBP and JPY are all trading mixed as traders await GBP data.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision: The central bank is widely expected to leave the repo rate at 25 bp. Today is the inaugural BoE “Super Thursdays”‘, which will include the instant-release of the MPC minutes and the latest Quarterly Inflation Report. Governor Carney will also lead a one-hour press conference. The minutes will likely reveal a hawkish shift at the BoE, with MPC members Weale and McCafferty seen resuming their vote in favour of a 25 bp rate hike (having voted for this between August and December last year), though still be outvoted by 7 to 2. Carney will likely maintain that the next move will be a hike, but still present a relatively balanced view in line with market expectations for tightening to start in February next year. The BoE is also likely to trim near-term inflation forecasts given sterling’s trade-weighted strength, the recent decline in oil prices, and signs that productivity is improving, though at the same time is likely to flag upside risk further down the track.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 7th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 7th August 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD price continues to contract and trade within a narrow three day range ahead of today’s U.S. Nonfarm payrolls economic data release. The Bollinger band EURUSD trend analysis on the daily chart indicates that volatility is narrowing, which is typical before the release of a major economic report. Price over the last three trading sessions has stayed below the 20 period simple moving average, however, a bullish cross is observed within the Stochastic Momentum Oscillator indicator. The fact that price remains well contained within the multi-week downward moving channel and the bullish cross observation that has accrued below the Stochastic 20 level indicates oversold market conditions in the short term.

The Bank of England’s first “Super Thursday” sent Sterling down sharply; the BoE left monetary policy unchanged. The BoE is slowly preparing for the first rate hike, however, they are in no rush to move. The GBPUSD closed sharply lower for the day down around 170 pips from the day’s high in the wake of the day’s heavy GBP economic calendar.

The USD backed off during N.Y. trade on Thursday after decent weekly jobless claims gave the USD some early support. Real U.S. GDP grew 2.3 percent in the second quarter, according to the advance estimate from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Asian stock markets were mixed in overnight trade, with China and Japan up. The Bank of Japan left policy unchanged, as widely expected.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

The GBP is trading lower against the majors after the BoE highlighted that it’s in no rush to raise rates. The AUD is trading higher as the BoA remains upbeat about the domestic economy, and demand for Australian commodities seems to be improving.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• USD Nonfarm Payrolls: July nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 215k, with a 205k private payroll gain. The market risk if payrolls are downward, could impact the timing of rate hikes. If upward, should provide some tail wind.

• USD Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.3% from June.
The workweek is expected to hold at 34.5 for a fifth month.

• CAD Net Change in Employment: Employment is expected to rise 10.0k in July after the 6.4k drop in June.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.
John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 10th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 10th August 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD price continues to recover from oversold market conditions as the USD traded lower on Friday, even though the jobs report largely met expectations. The odds for a U.S. Fed September rate hike seem more likely with the non-farm payroll report pointing to strong U.S. job growth. The EUR barely changed in early Monday trade against the dollar but is up against most other currencies. The European calendar is pretty quiet today, with French business confidence from the Bank of France and Sentix Investor Confidence for the Eurozone. Technically, the EURUSD is holding a multi-week succession of lower tops and bottoms. We could see a third attempt for an upward attack on the 1.1120’s as a price bounce off the 1.0850’s, ahead of the resumption of the multi-week price decline from the June 18 high of 1.1436; this is before we see prices grind lower towards my medium term price target area near the 1.0750’s.

German data weakens, with industrial production unexpectedly dipping 1.4% m/m in June data (the median forecast had been for a 0.9% rise). The unexpected sharp contraction in German June production will cast a shadow over Q2 GDP estimates. However, the EUR seems to be ignoring this as EUR buyers are emerging on short term oversold conditions. Early-week markets in Asia are consolidating after Friday’s U.S. jobs report market volatility. Speculation that Beijing will speed up mergers of state owned companies helped support shares, while Japan’s Nikkei was driven by earnings reports, and the Australian market was supported by a strong rebound in bank shares.

Friday’s headline U.S. report printed a 215k July payroll rise with a 0.2% hourly earnings gain that exactly matched estimates, but tiny gains of 101k for civilian jobs and 69k for the labor force after June declines were a disappointment. There was a drop in the jobless rate to a 5.26% cycle-low from 5.28%, though the labor force participation rate remained at a 38-year low of 62.6%. The FOMC is on the verge of its first rate hike since June 2006. However, a tightening is still not guaranteed and there remain some risks that could keep the Fed sidelined.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from current 5-day percentage change of currencies against the other major currencies.

The AUD is trading higher as the RBA talks about a stronger economy and short sellers get squeezed. Demand for Australian commodities also seems to be improving.

The GBP is trading lower after “Super Thursday” turned out to be a disappointment and the BoE may postpone a rate hike.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR Sentix Investor Confidence: The forecast is for a 20.2 reading up from the previous 18.5, a higher reading will highlight investors confidence in Europe’s economic recovery.

• USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks: Due to speak at the Atlanta Press Club and will be taking questions from the audience.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 11th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 11th August 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD has been rising for the last four trading days after it created a higher low at 1.0848 weekly support. This has brought the pair conclusively out of the bear channel after a breakout at the end of July failed. This first failed attempt but was a hint of things to come and market was able to create a higher low on August 5th. Yesterday was the first time EURUSD stayed outside the channel for a full trading day thus confirming that the downside dynamics that were in place in July are not dictating the market moves any longer. Therefore, I expect that this week’s price action will be bound between major weekly support and resistance levels at 1.0848 and 1.1189. I am seeing a support area in the daily resolution between 1.0848 and 1.0934 while the nearest resistance area is between 1.1114 and 1.1189 and 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels coincide with these levels. However, before EURUSD can move up there, it has to deal with a resistance created by upper 2 stdv Bollinger band and 50 day moving average (currently at 1.1090). I expect the area between 1.1061 and 1.1130 to limit today’s trading on the upside and then look for a move to 1.0870.

German ZEW unexpectedly dropped in August, with the expectations reading falling to 25.0 from 29.7. The current conditions reading still improved to 65.7 from 63.9 and the expectations number still remains firmly in positive territory, indicating that optimists far outnumber pessimists. Still, the fact that investor confidence dropped again, despite signs that Greece is heading for a third bailout highlights that concerns about the impact of the Fed’s lift off and the outlook for the Chinese economy overshadow a more stable situation in the Eurozone. The strong current conditions reading, which ties in with a marked rise in German orders in Q2, suggest the recovery remains on track in Q3, but concerns about the longer term outlook seem to be on the rise. Bund futures extended gains on the weak number and the September 10-year contract is now up 44 ticks at 154.39.

China devalued yuan after July exports we down by 8.3%. Currencies were impacted by the PBoC’s devaluation of the yuan, with the AUD and NZD both losing over 1% to the USD in the wake of the move, while the won and the yen were hit by a lesser extent. An indirect bid for dollars saw EURUSD tumble back to the mid-1.09s after foraying above 1.1000 after the London close yesterday. The PBoC lowered the yuan’s daily fix to the U.S. dollar by 1.9% to 6.228, the largest devaluation since the central bank dropped its peg against the greenback. The move follows dismal trade data out of China over the weekend, and is apparently a one-off initiative intended to converge onshore and offshore pricing as a new pricing regime is put together ahead of the key IMF SDR inclusion vote later this year, according to the FT. AUDUSD dove over a big figure in making a one week low at 0.7305. USDJPY lifted to a two-day peak of 124.89.

European stock futures are heading south, in tandem with U.S. stock futures following China’s move to devalue its currency, which will add to concerns about the health of the Chinese economy, while prompting concerns that the devaluation will hamper exporters elsewhere as it will artificially boost the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturers. This could put fresh pressure on other central banks to take their own currencies more into account. The DAX was looking forward to an expected improvement in the ZEW after yesterday’s robust gains.

Fed’s Lockhart is still disposed to September lift-off though waiting a month or two won’t be decisive for the economy and a gradual tightening pace means something less frequent than a hike at each meeting. He sees some evidence of inflation heating up, though low global commodity prices could be a concern if they signal weak global demand. Lockhart considers progress on inflation important in setting the pace of rate hikes after lift-off. He views immediate risk of Greek spillover as passed, but any agreement still needs to be implemented. Seems he’s left himself some wiggle room on lift-off on the inflation threshold, despite still favoring a September move.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

AUD was hit today as China decided devalue its currency. The move was seen as a sign of weakness in Chinese economy and as AUD really trades on Chinese fundamentals it was sold off. After being down most against the safe haven currency CHF AUD is now down most against the EUR. However, there are losses against most of the other major currencies as well. The news brought AUDUSD to lower Bollinger Bands in 4h resolution while EURAUD broke out of a tight range it had been over the last four trading days. GBPAUD reacted by rallying to a resistance at weekly pivotal candle low. AUDCAD dropped significantly from a resistance on the devaluation news as Crude Oil has seen some strength from a major support.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• German August ZEW investor sentiment was expected to be rising to 31.0 (median 32.0) from 29.7 in July. However, the figure was down from the previous and came in at 25.

• US Wholesale Trade: June wholesale trade data is out today and is expected to show a 0.8% (median 0.5%) increase for June with inventories up 0.7%. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio steady at 1.29 from April. The May release had shipments up 0.3% in May and inventories up 0.8%.

• US Productivity: The first release on Q2 productivity is due to be released today and should reveal a 2.0% (median 1.5%) headline which follows a -3.1% headline in Q1. Unit labor costs are seen at -0.5% (median 0.3%) after a 6.7% in Q1. Productivity was negative in both Q1 and Q4 of last year but is now poised to post gains.

• Canada Housing Starts are expected to improve to a 205.0k unit rate in July from the 203.0k pace in June. Forecast Risk: The economies of Canada’s energy producing regions have taken well publicized hits from the fall in energy prices. We expect slower activity in those markets to continue. However, mortgage rates are lean, which has boosted activity in other regions and helped maintain momentum in construction activity. Market Risk: The Bank decided that the threat from falling oil prices was the challenge facing Canada’s economy, and the downside risks to growth were enough for an insurance ease. Such a move would seem to increase the risk of a housing bubble. Not to worry, as the Bank says that easier policy will help assure incomes do not dive which will in turn allow households to service debt.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 12th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 12th August 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD rallied to the 1.1090 resistance identified in my report yesterday. The pair reacted lower but then attracted buyers at an intraday support at 1.1012. This has led to a fifth consecutive up day with price once again trying to challenge the resistance area above 1.1090. EURUSD is trading inside the upper Bollinger Bands (1.5 and 2 stdv) and the Stochastic is getting overbought. Trend in 4h resolution has been strong and suggest that this will be another day without a significant correction in EURUSD but the upside is indeed getting limited as the resistance area is near. EURUSD is trading near levels that have been able to turn price lower before, therefore I expect that in today’s trading upside will be limited to 1.1090 – 1.1130 range.

The PBoC devalued again, shifting the yuan’s reference rate to 6.3306 versus the dollar, which is a 1.6% weakening of the Chinese currency relative to yesterday’s 6.228 (which itself marked a 1.9% depreciation). There seems a degree of acceptance in markets, with Credit Suisse economists, for instance, calculating that the yuan was 5 to 10% overvalued going into the devaluations, adding that anything more than a 10% shift in the currency would spark political backlash. Incoming Chinese data today, including production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment, showed weakness.

German lawmakers not ready to wave through Greek bailout. There are reports that German Chancellor Merkel is facing opposition to the plan to let lawmakers vote on the third Greek bailout package early next week. A deputy to Finance Minister Schaeuble told ARD television that “one needs to look closely” and “ask the Bundestag for approval when the common understanding is that this will hold for three years”. If there is a delay it could derail Greece’s close time table and the race to get political approval before Greece faces another big ECB repayment on August 20.

German insolvencies are falling sharply, with the overall number down 6.6% y/y in the year to date and down 10.6% y/y in May alone. This is another sign of a relatively robust domestic economy, but also a reflection of the fact that especially small companies in Germany are facing fewer financing constraints than companies elsewhere in the Eurozone. The low interest rate environment and robust domestic demand are also helping t hem to perform.

Yesterday US wholesale sales edged up 0.1% in June and inventories rose up 0.9%. The 0.3% May sales gain was nudged down to 0.2%. May’s 0.8% jump in inventories was revised lower to 0.6% (0.4% April). The inventory-sales ratio increased to 1.30 from 1.29 (revised from 1.29). Gains in most of the nondurable sales components slightly offset broad-based declines in the durable goods sales. Inventories were boosted by autos and drugs. The data will help fine tune GDP estimates.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

This is yet another day that the market participants are selling Australian dollar due to another currency devaluation in China. AUD is down against the competitors across the board while money has been flowing into CHF. This is a sign that markets are concerned about these surprise moves by the PBOC and feel the need of finding a safe haven. AUDUSD tested the 0.7237 support earlier today and has rallied slightly at the time of writing. The nearest resistance is now at 0.7315. EURAUD moved to the 1.5277 resistance and is now near to another resistance at 1.5332. GBPAUD is trading inside the upper daily Bollinger bands and has reacted slightly lower from the resistance.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• Main Macro Events Today UK Claimant Account Change for July is expected to come in at 1.5k compared to previous figure of 7.0k.

• Eurozone industrial production: there should be a decline in June production numbers of -0.1% m/m (median same0), after the disappointing German number. Data may be too backward looking to be a major market mover or change the overall outlook, but a weak number will add to prevailing risk aversion, especially after the surprise drop in the ZEW yesterday.

• US Treasury Budget: July treasury data is out today and is expected to reveal a $149 bln (median -$129.8 bln) deficit for the month. This compares to a $51.8 bln surplus in June and a $94.6 bln deficit in July of last year. Receipts are expected at $224 bln, up 4.6% y/y with outlays at $374 bln, up 20.9% y/y.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 13th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 13th August 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

Yesterday’s rally exceeded my expectations for the day as EURUSD blasted through the resistance at 1.1130. However, it still is inside the range I said I would expect to contain this week’s price action. I suggested in my report on Tuesday that EURUSD would not trade beyond 1.1189 resistance. There was a quick move some 25 pips higher but it was quickly rejected by the sellers and the pair is currently trading at 1.1119. EURUSD is now moving lower towards an intraday support area between 1.1030 and 1.1070. The next support level after this intraday support is the weekly high at 1.10996. This weekly high is fairly near to the support area above it and therefore adds to its significance. Nearest daily support and resistance levels are at 1.0934 and 1.1214.

The PBoC devalued the CNY for a third day, but at a decreasingly aggressive pace of 1.1%, comparing to 1.6% yesterday and the initial 1.9% devaluation of Monday. The central bank held a press conference to explain the devaluation — in contrast to the two previous occasions — arguing that there was no economic basis for the currency to continue depreciating, and that it would keep it stable. The PBoC had also intervened during its overnight session, when it trimmed losses in the CNY of nearly 2% to just 1%.

The central bank also said that the way the reference rate for the new session was modified would now incorporate the currency’s close from the previous session, as well as demand and supply conditions. All this mollified broader market concerns. Most other Asian currencies managed to rebound, and stock and commodity markets picked up.

Final German HICP inflation was confirmed at 0.1% y/y, CPI at 0.2% y/y, as expected. The breakdown showed seasonal price drops for clothes and shoes over the month, which were compensated by a rise in holiday related prices. The annual rate continues to reflect the impact of lower energy prices, with household energy down 5.7% y/y, a further acceleration in the pace of decline, driven by a 22.4% y/y drop in prices for heating oil. Headline numbers remain very low, not just in Germany, but deflation risks are now longer a major concern for the central bank, as core inflation starts to rise.

US Treasury posted a $149.2 bln budget deficit in July, a 57.7% erosion versus the $94.6 bln shortfall a year ago. Spending surged 21.2% y/y, while receipts rose only 5.1% y/y. The fiscal year deficit now stands at $465.5 bln, worsening 1.1% y/y compared to the $460.5 bln red ink for the same 10-month period of fiscal 2014. Also for the fiscal year to date, receipts are up 8.0% y/y, with outlays up 6.9% y/y. We’re still forecasting a $430 bln deficit for the current fiscal year, which compares to the -$483.3 bln for FY2014.

September liftoff is far from a done deal thanks to China’s devaluations and the broad impacts and implications rippling around the globe. For the time being we’ll maintain our call for a 25 bp hike in September. But the Fed funds futures market is now showing only about a 40% chance for action. Odds were closer to 70% after the July jobs report. Factors that have the potential to cause the FOMC to delay are the risks of global economic weakness, the renewed threat of disinflation with the plunge in commodities, potential devaluations of other Asian currencies, and the stronger dollar which could be a net headwind to US growth. It’s too soon for Fed officials to start making pronouncements on China, as indicated by Dudley earlier. While data will continue to be the Fed’s guiding light, policymakers have already shown their sensitivities to global dynamics, and overseas events could take precedence in the September rate decision if the markets become unglued.

Currency Movers Charts

In today’s trading we’ve seen EUR correcting lower while USD, CAD and GBP have attracted money and moved higher. NZD is a clear loser today even though there has been no major news on the currency. NZD performance against GBP and USD stand out from the others. GBPNZD is moving higher in an ascending triangle that has been formed below a major historical weekly resistance at 2.4146 while NZDUSD moves sideways at a weekly support at 0.6470. AUDNZD reacted higher from a support yesterday and created a pin bar but there has been much momentum today. This price action is also taking place at a weekly pivotal high at 1.1113.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: The minutes of the July policy meeting, are unlikely to bring any surprises, with comments likely to confirm a cautiously optimistic view on the growth outlook with some reservations due to the impact of the Greek crisis and uncertainty about world growth. Deflation risks are no longer a real issue and some council members will have highlighted risks of asset price bubbles, although the prevailing view at the ECB is that this is not a real concern for now and should be addressed at a national level via macro-prudential policies. The main concern at the ECB is the focus on the full implementation of the QE program and a clear message to markets that the prospect of rising rates in the U.S. doesn’t mean the ECB is in a hurry to follow.

• US Retail Sales: July retail sales are out today and should reveal a 0.4% (median 0.6%) headline with a 0.4% (median 0.4%) ex-autos increase. There are balanced risks to the report which we discussed in Monday’s commentary as chain store sales slowed steadily over the course of the month after a strong start but a firm employment report and the 2.1% bounce in auto sales will help lift the report.

• US Import and Export Prices: July trade price data is due today and we expect import prices to decline by 1.3% (median -1.0%) with export prices down 0.4% on the month. The import price index managed to increase in May as the winter and spring plunge in oil prices leveled off but further declines in oil prices during July look poised to once again weigh on the release. Our July forecasts compare to June figures of -0.1% for import prices and -0.2% for export prices.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 14th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 14th August 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

With money continuing to flow into the USD and the GBP, traders continue to bet if the Fed will move to raise rates before the Bank of England. The EURUSD is set to consolidate after a six straight trading day advance from the 1.0850’s with the recent price advance stopping just short of the 1.1220’s resistance levels. Technically, I am expecting the EURUSD to dip towards the 1.1080’s – 1.0980’s as buyers may emerge at those levels before any attempt to test towards the 1.1260’s. The EUR market continues to re-price, at least in the short term, to reflect the diminished GREXIT concerns.

German Q2 GDP expanded 0.4% q/q, a slight acceleration from the 0.3% q/q in Q1, which brought the working day adjusted annual rate to 1.6%, up from 1.1% y/y in the previous quarter. French non-farm payrolls raised 0.2% q/q in Q2, while wage growth slowed to 0.3% from 0.5%. Overall, French unemployment remains high, especially among the under 25s, but this is also due to France’s ongoing structural issues and low growth potential. Greek parliament approves 3rd bailout after an all night debate that showed the strains in Tsipras’ coalition. The vote paves the way for an agreement by Eurozone finance ministers at the Eurogroup meeting this afternoon.

Markets are trading cautiously after a choppy week in the wake of China’s unexpected devaluation of the yuan, but the move has been generally accepted by the markets. Wall Street also shrugged off the ongoing slide in crude oil below $42 for the time being. Firmer U.S. retail sales data was offset somewhat by negative trade price data and an uptick in jobless claims.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

The new Currency Movers Charts show the percentage change from previous day’s close to the current moment against the other major currencies.

The USD is trading lower in cautious trade following a volatile week. The AUD is higher and commodity prices will continue to dictate the level of the AUD, as demand for Australian commodities seems to be improving.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR Eurozone Jul HICP: inflation confirmed at 0.2% y/y, unchanged from the preliminary reading and the previous month. Prices dropped 0.6% m/m, driven mainly by a renewed decline in energy prices, which were down 0.7% m/m and fell 5.6% y/y. Excluding energy, the annual rate stood at 0.9% y/y in July and core inflation was confirmed at 1.0% y/y, up from 0.8% y/y in June. Even the core rate is considerably below the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability, but the pick up confirms that the risk of a real deflationary spiral is very slim.

• CAD Manufacturing Sales: A swing in aerospace production featured in the May move higher, as activity in the sector rose 22.2% following the 18.0% drop in April. The depreciation in the value of the CAD during June should boost the value of sales and inventories held in U.S. dollars.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 17th August 2015.

GOLD RALLY HALTED NEAR RESISTANCE.

Gold, Weekly

I pointed out in my previous report that the long term picture stays weak and suggests lower prices for gold. However, I noted that in short term we should see 1080 support holding and market testing the 1130 – 1146 resistance area. If price moves to this resistance area we should monitor price action for potential signs of momentum reversal at levels identified in this report.

Market has since moved roughly as expected with the price of gold moving briefly below the 1080 support. This intraday move was quickly rejected and price closed above the support. This was followed by a sideways move and then a rally that almost reached the lower end of my resistance range last week. The long term weekly picture remains bearish with gold trading near previous support areas. The 23.6% Fibonacci level coincides with the 1130.40 low and therefore suggests increased significance of that level. Other resistance levels are approx. at 1142 and 1160.

Gold, Daily

Gold extended a move to the downside and moved outside the bearish regression channel. Then it took its time after forming a pin bar at support and moved sideways. Now gold has rallied into the the upper Bollinger bands near the first significant resistance level at 1130.40. This level also coincides with a price projection based on the triangle width created by the sideways consolidation.

Stochastics is somewhat overbought and rolling over indicating momentum to the downside should be followed by the recent failure to penetrate the Bollinger Bands. However, the support is fairly close at 1100 to 1103. This support area is roughly the higher end of the sideways move. Therefore the downside move from the current levels might not be that strong or long lived.


Gold, 240 min

Price is moving sideways after breaking below an ascending regression channel. A pivotal high candle low at 1120 limits the upside moves while the nearest 4h support is at 1111.50 coinciding with the lower 4h Bollinger Bands. The upper end of the 1100 to 1103 support area is where 50 period simple moving average is at the time of writing. At the same time Stochastics Oscillator quite correctly suggests that price is trading approx. in the midrange of the recent sideways move. The latest complete 4h bar is a pinbar that indicates lower prices but there has been now follow through.

Conclusion

Even though gold is near the lower end of the long term downward trend channel the proximity of previous support levels (now resistance) suggests that it is hard for the buyers to create a strong rally from here. Price of gold has been a lacklustre performer in the past when the US Fed has been raising rates. This time should be no different unless some external event turns on a need for safe haven buying. Daily time frame rally from a triangle formation failed at the Bollinger Bands where it also reached a price projection target. This suggests the initial thrust to the upside is over as the target has been reached. If the support at 1111.50 breaks we should see gold correcting slightly lower to 1100 – 1103 support area. All in all, the price of gold is in the short term more likely to correct lower than move beyond the 1120 – 1126.30 resistance. Therefore if price moves into this range of resistance I will be looking for sell signals in the lower time frames. Should this take place my targets for the shorts are at 1110 and 1103.

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Janne Muta
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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 18th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 18th August 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

The dollar continued on a steady-to-firm path during pre-European trade session in Asia, despite weakness in US Treasury yields amid growth worries and talk the FOMC will delay lift-off beyond September. EURUSD ebbed to a six-day low of 1.1051, and USDJPY lifted to the 124.50 area, though the pair remained well within its Monday range.

For the last three weeks the Stochastics Oscillator has been giving high quality signals at both ends of its range. This happens when market moves sideways in a well-defined range. I said in my Aug 11th report that I expect this week’s price action to be bound between major weekly support and resistance levels at 1.0848 and 1.1189. The upper end of the range was tested over the next three days but price failed to penetrate the level on a closing basis. Since then the pair has been drifting lower. The key word here is drifting. Price move hasn’t been strong and volatile but rather quite gradual. The pair has now reached the support range I mentioned in my Aug 13th report (1.1030 – 1.1070) and trades at 1.1060 at the time of writing. Therefore, I expect price will find support very close to the current price. The proximity of the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1044 supports the idea. Reaction higher however, could be short lived to as there is resistance in 1.1114 – 1.1125 range. If this I’m right and this resistance holds the support area between 1.08048 and 1.0934 becomes a likely target area for shorts.

German Financial Minister Schaeuble calls on lawmakers to back Greek aid package. He sends a strong signal off support for Greece’s 3rd bailout package ahead of Wednesday’s vote in Germany’s lower house of parliament, where Schaueble and Merkel are facing growing dissent from their own party. Schaeuble told public broadcaster ZDF that he sees a dramatic change in the government’s readiness to reform and that: “I can argue with full conviction, partly because I haven’t taken this decision lightly myself… that the right thing to do is to vote for this”. Schaeuble, like Merkel before him, seemed to be trying to play down difference with the IMF over Greece’s debt sustainability and stressed that he is sure that the IMF will be involved in the program.

US NAHB homebuilder sentiment index rose to 61 in August from 60 in June and is the highest since November 2005. The single family sales index edged up to 66 versus 65 last month (revised from 66). The future sales index was steady at 70 (July revised down from 71). The index of prospective buyer traffic improved 2 points to 45 versus 43 previously, and is the best reading of the year, underpinned by the gains in employment and still low mortgage rates.

Currency Movers Charts

The AUD is down after the RBA meeting minutes indicated that the bank believes the Fed rate hike will cause further depreciation in the AUD against the USD. NZD gained ground earlier today on the back of news on milk prices going up. According to Reuters there is a growing expectation that milk prices will rise in tonight’s auction. This commodity being important for the New Zealand economy potential for higher prices has supported the currency today.

EURAUD is trading near the lower end of a daily shooting star candle and looks like it might push into the above resistance. AUDCAD is rolling over from a resistance at 0.9670 towards a support at 0.9431. NZD has risen most against the AUD and the AUDNZD pair has been trending lower for past few hours. This has brought the pair to a 50 day SMA and a daily pin bar. This however is taking place in the middle of the daily chart price range. NZDCAD is trending higher after it was able to hold above the 50 day SMA. However, there is a weekly resistance level at 0.87 area and the pair is approaching the level again.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• RBA Policy Meeting’s Minutes: RBA policy makers were less worried about the currency appreciation in the beginning of August and said that weaker currency was helping exports. The bank deemed it likely that when the US Fed raises the rates the Australian dollar will depreciate in value against the US dollar.

• UK CPI: The y/y UK Consumer Price Index numbers are released today. The previous figure was 0.0% and with energy prices at multi-year lows there are no expectations that inflation would pickup now. Forecast: 0.0%.

• US Housing Starts: July housing starts data should show a 3% decline in the pace of starts to a 1,140k (median 1,180k) pace for the month. Permits are seen at 1,200k from 1,337 in June and completions should be 990k from 972k in June. The NAHB remained firm in July at 60 and today’s release showed a further increase to 61 in August.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 19h August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 19th August 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD, Daily Yesterday’s intraday rally was short lived and EURUSD resumed its downward trend. In the Asian session the pair moved higher and attempted to test resistance at 1.1080. Rally moved the EURUSD spot rate outside a descending 4h price channel. However, the aforementioned resistance is a daily low from 13th while 50 day SMA is coinciding with the level. This combination triggered selling and the last complete 4h candle turned into a shooting star. As mentioned in the previous reports, there are no significant daily support levels before the 1.0934. And because the spot is now close to resistance levels, it makes more sense to look for further downside over the coming days. IMF participation in Greek bailout is indispensable for Germany, according to German Finance Minister Schaeuble. He stressed that the IMF agreed in principle to join the Greek bailout and said he is confident about the IMF’s assessment of Greek debt sustainability. Schaeuble, who is trying to sell the package to increasingly reluctant lawmakers from his own party, repeated that a haircut is out of the question and that there is only “limited” room for further Greek debt relief. So it’s hard to share his confidence that the IMF will come on board in October. Eurozone officials have been considering soft debt relief in the form of maturity extensions and extended payment holidays, but the IMF previously argued that this is unlikely to be sufficient to reach debt sustainability. Assuring lawmakers that the IMF will get on board, risks that Schaeuble and Merkel will have to declare defeat if there is no agreement with the fund on Greek debt. China’s economy and a EM debt crisis are now the principal concerns of investors, according to the latest sentiment survey from BoA-Merrill, eclipsing risks of a Eurozone breakdown This comes with emerging market stocks trading at four-year lows and Asian currencies taking a pummeling. Both the Malaysian ringgit and Indonesian rupiah clocked fresh 17-year lows today, since the dark days of the 1998 Asian crisis. China is very much at the center of all this. Stock markets there had another volatile day with the Shanghai Composite showing a 5.1% loss at its intraday low, but managing to close with just a 1.2% decline (it’s not clear whether official support was behind this, but that seems to be the widespread suspicion). This follows the 6.1% dive of yesterday. Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow was boosted to 1.3% for Q3 from the previous 0.7% estimate, as the measure catches up to the internals of Friday’s industrial production report, though still some distance from the Blue Chip median estimate of 2.7%. “The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015 is 1.3 percent on August 18, up from 0.7 percent on August 13. The forecast for real GDP growth increased from 0.7 percent to 1.2 percent after Friday’s industrial production release from the Federal Reserve. Most of this increase was due to a 15.3 percent increase in seasonally adjusted motor vehicle assemblies in July that boosted the forecast of the contribution of real inventory investment to third-quarter GDP growth from -2.2 percentage points to -1.8 percentage points.” US housing starts edged up 0.2% in July to a 1,206k pace, the best since October 2007, after rebounding 12.3% to 1,204k in June (revised from 1,174k). But, building permits fell 16.3% to 1,119k, from a revised 7.0% June gain to 1,337k (revised from 1,343k). Single family starts rose 12.8% on the month, with multifamily down 17.0%. Housing completions increased 2.4% to 987k from the 964k June rate (revised from 972k). Headline starts are better than forecast, but permits disappointed a bit, to leave a mixed view on the report in general, but in a vacuum would keep a September rate hike on the table.

Currency Movers Charts

The moves in the FX markets have been rather subdued ahead of FOMC minutes. EUR has been gaining while the USD has been losing ground. We touched upon NZD and milk prices yesterday as there was an expectation that prices of dairy products would rise. Today however, NZD didn’t move higher even on the back of the news that dairy prices moved higher. According to agrimoney.com prices for milk powder rose 19% from two weeks ago, while prices for the anhydrous milk fat soared 27%. This is the first time prices have risen on the GDT since early March, and mark a recover from the previous auction’s 13-year price low and is likely resulting from a supply squeeze. This suggests that the free falling milk prices might have found a bottom and should support the New Zealand economy. However, the currency markets don’t seem believe this story as NZD is down today. Perhaps, the worries about Chinese economy and the Fed rate hike expectations are behind the lack of buying interest. Just recently there has also been some concerted move into the safe haven currency CHF but the changes are still relatively small.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

FX Pair Support Resistance
GBPUSD 1.5563 1.5806
AUDUSD 0.7216 0.7437
USDCAD 1.2950 1.3152
USDJPY 1.2379 1.2528
NZDUSD 0.6470 0.6650

Main Macro Events Today

• Japan All Industry Activity Index came in at 0.3% disappointing slightly as expectation was 0.4%. However, the improvement from previous figure of -0.5% was welcome.

• US CPI: July CPI should reveal a 0.1% (median 0.2%) increase for the headline with the core index up 0.2% (median 0.2%) on the month. After leveling off briefly, oil prices resumed their decline in July which is likely to add downward pressure to the CPI release. This effect showed up in the already released July PPI where we saw a headline increase of 0.2% but which included a 0.6% decline for the energy component in July.

• FOMC Minutes: Key domestic data have generally been good enough to support liftoff on September 17. Indeed, GDP growth should hit at least 3.0% in Q2 and Q3. However, the FOMC isn’t operating in a vacuum and ongoing weakness in commodity prices, the dollar’s strength, and remaining uncertainties over the outlook for China could tip the scales in favor of a delay, especially given the generally dovish leanings of the voting members, led by Yellen and Dudley. We’ll look for clues in the FOMC minutes for the degree to which the various parameters might affect the decision. Tomorrow’s data on July CPI will be of some importance too though it have lost some of its potency given the plunge in commodities.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 20th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 20th August 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

The FOMC minutes lacked clear signs of September rate hike and triggered a sharp move higher in EURUSD yesterday. The pair moved to upper 1.5 sd Bollinger band and is now trading inside 4h pivotal resistance and relatively close to a weekly resistance level at 1.1189. When price is trading near a higher time frame resistance, such as a weekly level at 1.1189, it is more challenging for the bulls to move prices higher and downward reactions from proximity of the level become more probable. The daily picture is now medium term bullish with the latest low being a (second) higher low and the high before that being a higher high. This suggests that there is now a daily uptrend in place and we should see EURUSD moving higher into the weekly resistance area over the coming weeks but longs should be timed at corrections. In the short term, the nearby resistance area could be a challenge for the bulls and we should keep an eye on how price reacts to the resistance levels. The nearest significant support and resistance levels are at 1.1015 and 1.1189.

ESM rubberstamped the Greek bailout late yesterday, following the ratification in national parliaments this week and last Friday’s approval by the Eurogroup. The ESM said EUR 13 bn will be paid out immediately and a EUR 10 bn bank buffer transferred to a segregated account at the ESM. EUR 3 bn are to be disbursed by the end of November, after further prior action from Greece. The ESM said the privatisation fund is to be established this year with a total targeted value of EUR 50 bn of assets to be sold. “Debt relief for Greece in the form of longer grace and payments periods, will be considered after the first review” in October/November and the IMF is expected to contribute “after European creditors adopt debt relief measures”. Whether this form of “soft debt relief” will be sufficient to satisfy the fund remains the key question for IMF participation.

German producer prices continue to fall, with annual PPI inflation coming in at -1.3% y/y in July, up from -1.4% y/y in June, but still firmly in negative territory. The renewed decline in energy prices is keeping a lid on import prices and overall PPI, while this year’s drop in the EUR is taking its time to feed through the product chain. Still headline rates are inching up from the lows seen at the start of the year and excluding energy the rate stood at -0.2% y/y in July. There never really was a great risk of a real deflationary spiral in Germany and with a tight labour market adding to wage gains and a rise in unit labour costs, while fueling consumption, inflation is seen trending higher over the next year.

FOMC minutes showed a leaning toward a hike, with most officials seeing conditions for liftoff approaching (minutes were leaked early). However, as of July, those conditions still hadn’t been met. And the recent events from China make September a difficult call. While participants cheered the improvement in the economy since the weak Q1, validating their forecasts, a few were disappointed that growth was still lower than had been projected earlier in the year. On inflation, it’s still expected to pick up, although some saw downside risks due to economic and financial developments abroad. The remarks on China were a little more expansive than usual. It said “several participants noted that a material slowdown in Chinese economic activity could pose risks to the U.S. economic outlook. Some participants also discussed the risk that a possible divergence in interest rates in the United States and abroad might lead to further appreciation of the dollar, extending the downward pressure on commodity prices and the weakness in net exports.” Also of note, the Fed staff revised its inflation outlook down and price pressures are expected to remain below the 2% target through 2017.

Currency Movers Charts

EUR has been strong today across the board while AUD has been losing ground especially against EUR. EURAUD has been trending higher over the past few weeks and the latest move EURUSD encouraged buyers in to take EURAUD to the recent highs at 1.53. EURCAD is another strongly trending pair moving towards a resistance at 1.4733. Since March this year, EUR has been moving higher against the CAD on the back of oil prices staying weak.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• US Philadelphia Fed Index: The August Philly Fed is out Thursday and is expected to decline to 4.0 (median 6.5) from 5.7 in July. The already released Empire State index plunged in August, dropping to -14.9 from 3.9 in July with the ISM-adjusted measure falling to 44.9 from 50.0. This drop set a low back to 2009 and will be a source of downside risk for the remaining August producer sentiment reports.

• US Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of August 15 is out Thursday and the headline is expected to fall to 266k (median 270k) from 274k last week and 269k in the week prior to that. Claims are poised to average 274k in August after a lean 272k in July.

• US Existing Home Sales: July existing home sales data is out Thursday and should show a 1.6% slowdown in the headline pace to 5.400 million (median 5.440 million) from 5.490 million in June. The June headline set a new high back to ’09. Already released measures of housing strength for July have remained firm with the NAHB rising to 60 from 59 and housing starts up to 1.206 million from 1.204 million in June.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 21st August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 21st August 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

Euro has been a funding currency for carry trades. Market participants have been borrowing in euros at near zero rates and investing in better yielding Asian economies where the rates are higher. Lately however carry traders (in short Euro positions) have been forced to unwind these investments as euro has been trending higher. The latest rally moved EURUSD far outside the upper Bollinger bands. This rally ran into a resistance at 1.1292, a daily low from June 19th. A move outside daily Bollinger bands and close to a resistance is likely to be reversed and price needs to move lower to find support levels from which to attempt to move higher again. The nearest support area is at 1.1189 -1.1216 but this area is rather high up in the range of the recent uptrend. If the recent momentum continues the this area can provide a level for a new reaction low but should that be violated a more reliable support area for EURUSD is closer to a weekly high of 1.0966 at 1.1018 – 1.1094.

In terms of weekly picture and sideways movement we’ve seen since May this year the pair is getting a bit pricey. This limits the upside potential and should trigger a more careful approach to trading the long side. On the fundamental side Fed’s lack of commitment to raising rates (evident in the latest FOMC minutes) and Chinese slowdown together with increased volatility in emerging markets raises the possibility that EURUSD will keep on appreciating. The CBOE Emerging Markets ETF Volatility Index has risen from July 17th low of 17.59 to 28.56 at the time of writing, a rise of 62.36%.

All this increases the likelihood that the Fed will start paying attention to the risk of adding more instability to these markets by increasing the rates. However, from a technical point of view, a resistance is a resistance until it has been penetrated. Therefore signs of reversal near weekly highs should be taken seriously and traded appropriately. Major weekly support area will be found between 1.0809 and 1.0996.

Greek elections to bring stability or more chaos? Tsipras decision to resign to pave the way for snap elections was not a total surprise, given the unraveling of Syriza amid the controversy over Greece’s 3rd bailout. It is not clear yet when elections will be held, but a September 20 date, as an official yesterday suggested, would be ahead of the 1st bailout review and debt relief talks which raise some risks. Tsipras may be hoping that the vote will bolster his eroding power base and Eurogroup head Dijsselbloem said he hoped the elections will bring more stability and will come early. However, the reforms will hardly bring any real improvement in the short term and could still see anti-austerity forces gaining strength, which has the potential to throw Greece back to where it was earlier in the year, if a new left government doesn’t want to see through the agreed reforms.

German consumers start to worry about growth outlook. The overall projection for consumer confidence in September came in weaker than expected at 9.9, down from 10.1 in August. The August breakdown showed a fresh drop in the reading for the economic outlook to just 16.6 less than half the 38.3 at the peak back in May. Income expectations are also coming off the boil and the willingness to buy is easing, which suggests the strong boost from consumption that has been helping the German economy to recover this year may taper off. This will add to concerns about the impact of the slowdown in China on the German economy.

The July US existing home sales rose 2.0% to a 5.59 mln new cycle-high clip extended the June surge to a 5.48 (was 5.49) mln prior cycle-high to leave an encouraging report overall. We now have cyclical gains of 62% for existing home sales and 44% for pending home sales, versus larger cyclical gains of 79% for new home sales, 152% for housing starts, and 118% for permits. More generally, the housing recovery lost steam after the Fed’s taper talk and mortgage rate gains of mid-2013, and sales are just 5.3% above the 5.31 mln prior recent-peak in July of 2013 as we approach the presumed start of Fed tightening. Existing home sales fell 3.0% for 2014 overall to a 4.92 mln rate despite the underlying recovery, and we expect an 8% 2015 climb that brings us back to the mid-2013 sales pace. The percentage of all-cash transactions rose to 23% from 22% in June but a higher 24% over the prior three months, versus a much higher 29% last July. The downtrend is a good sign for ongoing repair in the mortgage market.

Currency Movers Charts

AUD is down again against all the major competitors while a safe haven currency JPY is benefiting from uncertainty that is clearly visible in the global stock markets. S&P 500 ended down over 2% yesterday while German DAX hadn’t a single issue that rose yesterday. Today Shanghai Composite closed down by 4.7% while euro has been benefiting from carry trade unwinds. All this points to more unstable times ahead and is in line with my predictions on global stock markets May this year (tweet: Bull market for stocks is over). This should also translate into added volatility in the currency markets and provide traders with new opportunities.

Today’s moves have driven AUDCHF and AUDJPY at support areas created by the lower daily Bollinger bands while EURAUD is trading near a pivotal weekly high from October last year.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• China’s manufacturing PMI fell to a preliminary 47.1 in August from a final 47.8 in July. The decline was contrary to expectations for some modest improvement and left the lowest reading since March of 2009. The report suggests the weakness evident in China’s economy during July continued in August, ultimately exacerbating the China slowdown fears the have roiled global markets last week and this week.

• Eurozone PMIs stabilise in August, with the manufacturing reading holding steady at 52.4 and the services number rising to 54.3. Better than Bloomberg consensus, with strong German orders data helping to boost the German manufacturing PMI, which compensated for another drop in the French reading.

• Canada Retail Sales: We expect retail sales to rise 0.1% in June (median +0.3%) after the 1.0% bounce in May. The ex-autos sales aggregate is expected to rise 0.5% in June (median +0.5%) following the 0.9% gain in May. Gasoline prices rose 6.0% in June according to the CPI, which should boost total and ex-auto sales. We could see a sizable boost, suggesting upside risk to the total and ex-autos sales estimates.

• Canada CPI should expand at a 1.4% y/y pace in July (median same at +1.4%) following the 1.0% y/y rate in June. CPI is seen rising 0.1% on a month comparable basis in June (median +0.2%) after the 0.2% gain in June. Gas prices were essentially flat in July compared to June.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 24th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 21th August 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

The risk-off theme continues in global financial markets as traders re-price the USD in view of the reduced chance that the Fed will begin tightening rates in September. The EURUSD is now trading near multi month highs around 1.15 after accelerating through my 1.1260’s target area; see my August 14 report, current price is starting to look overbought ahead of the 1.1530 resistance level. EURUSD traders should watch if price can hold above the 1.1436 support level before initiating new longs, otherwise a break below the 1.1430’s could open up the possibility for a set-back towards the 1.1216 – 1.1189 levels ahead of an advance on the 1.16’s.

German property prices continue to rise, with prices for apartments rising by around 1.4% m/m. The overall index rose 0.73% m/m and up 5.3% y/y. Low interest rates and a robust labour market are driving up property prices, but while the Bundesbank is keeping a close eye on developments it is not seeing signs of a serious property bubble at the moment, even if prices in key cities are already overvalued.

Asian and emerging market currencies are under pressure, along with commodity related currencies such as the AUD and the CAD as the FOMC minutes showed a Committee divided, the minutes gave no clear signals on the timing of a rate liftoff, however the mention of risks from China, the growth/inflation impacts of a stronger dollar, and a downgraded inflation outlook from the Fed Staff resulted in a downbeat market interpretation. China will remain a focal point as Chinese officials struggle with a slowing economy and falling equity market.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current 5 day percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time, 5 days ago.

The AUD is trading lower as the spill-over from the turmoil in China’s stock markets remain a risk factor for the AUD. The JPY is trading higher as talk of further easing to stimulate growth continues to gain momentum.

The EUR over the last five trading days is stronger as the current sell off in the Chinese stock markets and weak commodity prices may have the market rethinking a US rate move in September.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart is due to speak today.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 25th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 25th August 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

The EUR is trading lower this Tuesday after a nearly +340 pip move with the main cause pointing to Chinese retail investors’ realization that their government is no longer willing to support the Chinese stock markets. Monday’s aggressive global stock market sell-off was amplified by a number of brewing factors, the devaluation of the Yuan, the collapse of commodity prices, and the uncertainty of when Central banks will start to tighten rates.

At the moment, the EURUSD is at risk of a retracement of the 1.1020-1.17 sharp multi up-day move. However, the EURUSD saw serval breaks of resistance that could lead to further positive upward momentum on price. Traders should now be on alert if the former 1.1530 resistance now turned support can hold before initiating new longs, otherwise a possibility dip towards the mid 1.13’s could see buyers remerge to support price for a potential next leg higher move above the 1.1750’s.

The German DAX remains clearly below the 10000 mark and Asian markets were volatile in overnight trade, with the ASX closing higher, but the Nikkei losing nearly 4% again.

Crude Oil touched $37.70 after making it to $39’s following its entry into to the $37‘s. The slide lower comes as traders fear that global stock markets may pick up downward momentum again; the price fall indicates that traders view that global demand for the commodity will weaken as the Chinese economic slowdown takes hold.

The White House said the Treasury is “closely monitoring” global markets and China should continue to pursue reforms, while touting the strength of the U.S. economy. However, it did warn that Congress needs to pass the budget and avoid shutdowns to avoid “self-inflicted wounds”. Merkel of Germany said that a crisis in China won’t last and it will do everything it can to stabilize the situation, while Hollande of France said China will find the right answers to secure its economy.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time.

The JPY is lower against the majors after the JPY showed strong gains as a safe haven currency during yesterday’s volatile trading session. The USDJPY bounced nearly 300 points from the lows, as Wall Street pares its losses; USDJPY touched 119.02 highs after collapsing from over 120.00 to nearly 2015 lows of 116.15. The AUD is trading higher as commodity prices will continue to dictate the level of the AUD. The EUR is trading mixed after the German Ifo index rose to 108.3 in August from 108.0 in July.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR German IFO Index: Rose to 108.3 in August from 108.0 in July. This was even stronger than consensus forecast, with markets looking for a correction, although the rebound in German PMIs and strong orders already suggested that the Ifo would hold up. The breakdown confirmed that the improvement was entirely due to a jump in the current conditions indicator, while the more forward looking expectations index fell back slightly to 102.2 from 102.3 in July. The deteriorating growth outlook in China and other emerging markets may not have had an immediate impact on this month’s reading, but will be felt in coming month. Bund futures extended losses on the stronger than expected number, with the September contract now down 90 ticks on the day.

• USD Consumer Confidence: August Consumer Confidence is expected to increase to 92.0 from 90.9. This compares to a recent low of 25.3 in February of 2009. Forecast risk: downward, given the decline in the first Michigan release. Market risk: downward, as weaker data could impact rate hike timelines.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 26th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 26th August 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

The hope for a rebound in European stock markets didn’t last long, and equities are selling off again, with the DAX down at the market opening and below the 10000 mark. China’s rate cut yesterday by the People’s Bank of China initiated a rebound in Asian equity markets. It seems the realization in Europe is that the underlying problem is due to the fact that emerging markets are slowing down. The Euro Stoxx 600 has dropped 12% in August so far, and is heading for the worst monthly drop since 2008.

The medium term view on the EURUSD, since price has traded through the May tops at the 1.1430’s and then back under to touch below the 1.14 support on Tuesday, indicates that price still remains at risk of a continued retracement. The risk for longs is a re-visit towards the former major resistance 1.12 area where traders should watch for a potential higher low to develop before any attempt to retest the 1.17 recent high.

The USD gets some support as the U.S. consumer confidence rose sharply to 101.5 in August after climbing to 91.0 in June (revised from 90.9). It was 90.3 a year ago. This is the best level since March. The USD is trading mostly higher against the JPY, GBP, AUD and CHF, ahead of today’s Core Durable Goods Orders data.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time.

The JPY is weakening across the board as regional stocks rose. The CAD is stronger against all majors as Crude prices firm up.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• USD Durable Goods Orders: July durable goods data is out today and should show orders up 1.0% (median -0.5%) following a 3.4% bounce in June. Markets expect shipments to be up 1.5% from 0.5% in June and inventories to be up 0.6%, the same pace as June. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio down to 1.66 after two months at 1.68. There is some downside risk as Boeing orders fell to 101 in July from 181 in June.

• USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks: Dudley is the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 27th August 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 27th August 2015.

EURUSD, Daily

The EUR is trading generally weaker after posting broad based declines yesterday, as lower energy prices has led to a 1.7% decline in German import price inflation. The current lower inflation trajectory will give the ECB an excuse to talk down the euro; speculators should not rule out any further ECB QE expansion in the wake of the recent global market turmoil. I continue to see EURUSD risk to the downside in the immediate short term as price may attempt to re-test the mid to low 1.12’s where buyers could potentially emerge to support the pair.

European stock markets are broadly higher, following gains on Wall Street and in Asia, with the Shanghai Comp managing to extend gains in late trade closing with a 5.34% gain. The Nikkei closed 1.08% higher and the Hang Seng is up nearly 3%. In Europe, most markets are up around 2%, with the DAX leading the way with a 2.34% gain – the FTSE 100 is up 2.07% and the Euro Stoxx 2.20%.

Downbeat central bank comments are adding to market support with rate hike expectations in the U.S. and the U.K. being pushed back and the increased possibility that the ECB will move further into QE. Volatility is likely to remain high in this climate of uncertainty about the world growth outlook.

Dovish Fed speaking from Dudley, who said a September rate hike “seems less compelling to me” than a few weeks ago, had an impact on the markets with the Dow Jones closing up nearly +3.95% in Wednesday trade.

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)

Current intraday percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time.

The JPY continues to trade weaker across the board as the USDJPY bounces off the recent 1.1616 monthly low to break through to the upside of the 120’s.

The commodity driven currencies; AUD, CAD and NZD, are all trading stronger as Copper, Gold and Crude Oil firm up. The GBP remains mixed as cable traders digest the previous session’s sharp sell off of the GBPUSD.

Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:

Main Macro Events Today

• USD Gross Domestic Price Index (Q2): The second release on Q2 GDP is out today and we expect the headline to be revised up to 3.5% (median 3.3%) from 2.3% in the first release. Construction spending and inventories are expected to lead the revisions. We expect construction spending to be revised up by $17 bln, inventories by $16 bln, consumption by $11 bln and net exports and equipment spending should both be revised up by $2 bln.

• USD Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of August 22nd are out later today and should reveal a decline in the headline to 274k (median 275k) after an increase to 277k in the August 15th week. Claims are continuing at restrained levels in August and we expect the average for the month to be 274k which compares to 272k in July and 277k in June.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
Hot-Forex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.