Help required...

[dboddy]

Great website, loads of useful advice any lots of information to absorb. I'm hoping that maybe some of the advice Ive seen can be pointed my way (please ).

A potted history of me.. I'm an accountant by trade so have a reasonable level of knowledge of markets, etc. Ive also got a portfolio of around £5k of UK shares. These were purchased around 2001, just before around the bear began (stop laughing at the back!).

I would like to begin activiely trading this portfolio, and hopefully make some money along the way. I'm cant trade intraday (as much as Id love to, Ive got a 'day-job') so most of the analysis I can perform will be EOD. Ive been reading up on various TA sites; decisionpoint.com has been a good source although it seems to be US focused. And, Ive been considering getting Shrescope EOD software.

I guess Im looking for any ideas that will get me started. I'm more than happy to post details of my holdings.. just wasnt sure if it was allowed (or if anyone cared!).

I'm gonna keep trawling the boards for relevant information, so apols if this has been covered elsewhere. In the meantime, any pointers would be gratefully received.

 

[tomorton]

As a huge generality, swing trading (taking a position parallel with the underlying trend and holding overnight and as long as necessary is easier and less riskythan daytrading.

With modest capital you could spreadbet. That would allow positions as bull or bear. And no tax.

 

[Trader333]

dboddy,

...I'm an accountant by trade so have a reasonable level of knowledge of markets, etc

Sorry I dont see the correlation between being an accountant and having "any" let alone "reasonable" level of knowledge of markets. Please can you explain ?


Paul

 

[dboddy]

tomorton..

Have not touched spreads so far.. have read posts elsewhere suggesting its expensive in comparison to purchase.. with sums involved no cap gains implications until 7.2k gain (which would be a nice prob to have on 5k cap).. my prob at the moment is that Im long in around 5 positions that Im looking to trade (if beneficial).

Trader333..

Fair enough.. most of my investments so far have been made purely on fundamentals. I got a book a while back on p&f charting and have been generally reading around TA. Thinking of refining my strategy as a result.

For the record, the positions I'm currently in are...

GWG, ITE, MDY, TSCO.

Any help would still be appreciated..

 

[ChartMan]

The first two look to be doing nicely, MDY is a no hoper, TSCO looks to be at the crossroads.... with 285 within reach. Only your own timescales will tell you what to do. Just my opinion, NOT advice.

 

[qaza]

dboddy,



Sorry I dont see the correlation between being an accountant and having "any" let alone "reasonable" level of knowledge of markets. Please can you explain ?


Paul

Was this post really necessary ?

 

[dboddy]

OK: Ive started setting myself Immediate Targets for my current holdings...

GWG.. looking at 3 mth, I think I would set ST target @ 280, Stop @ 235 (Sup @ 240, Res 282)

ITE.. found it alittle difficult to set Stop / Tar for this (its had a good run over the past three months, seems to have found some res around 65/66; but volumes are low so how do I set a Tar / Stop?) So have settled on a Tar 75, Stop 61 (although I plan to sell 1/2 @ 70)

MDY... Chartman... "MDY is a no hoper"... couldnt have put it any better myself. A complete dog that I have lost 80% of my capital on (..so thats why you have stop losses.. ) But Ive got to do something with it, so heres my take. Stop @ 7, Tar 10.5

TSCO.. I like this one cos of the decent fundamentals; but seeing as Im trying to move away from that ive decided to treat it exactly the same as the others... Stop @ 250, Tar 270... so Im interested to know where 285 was derived from Chartman (is that taking a LT view?)

Bearing in mind I'm relatively new to TA, wouldnt mind some feedback (esp if Im way off the mark )...

 

[TheBramble]

Darren, what are you using to make your trading decisions at present? You say you are thinking about getting an EOD feed and Sharescope. What TA methods/approaches are you following?

 

[dboddy]

Still thinking about getting an EOD feed; Sharescope seems reasonably priced (relative to my level of cap investment). Only prob with SS is that you dont seem to be able to run it on multiple installations (which means I can only do the analysis at home)... going see if theres a technical solution (maybe exporting the data to a different tool.. thinking also about pfscan).

At present I've used comdirect candles for the charts posted.. not good / felxible enough; but they'll do until Ive researched the software a little more.

As for what methods I'm using at the moment... its nice that you think there is a method . My existing longs have been derived over time purely from fundamentals. On the whole, this has not been sucessful.

So my current thinking is to try to balance a fundamental approach with TA (ie use SS to select a broad range of target shares to monitor; and potentially use TA to determine entry / exit points). This prob goes against a 'TA' view of the world; but a holistic approach sits more comfortably at present with me until my TA knowledge improves. Ive been watching the moving averages of the FTSE / Dow indicees as a whole (which seem to be producing strong sell signals at present); so my conclusion at present is that this is not a good time to be going long in new positions.

Ive been reading the FTSE Beater thread (The Basics Of Trading) which is excellent. And a couple of people have offered private advice out of thread.. links to websites, books etc.

But, if Ive learned one thing so far, its that Ive got a lot more to learn.

 

[TheBramble]

MetaStock is good (except for buggy system testing in the latest version) and you might be able to pick up a2nd-hand copy until while you're learning the ropes.

Preset also offer an EOD feed for £105/year (from memory) which I used to use with the MetaLoad interface.

Might be an idea for you to look in the Software and DataFeeds forums, if you haven't already done so.

 

[FTSE Beater]

Still thinking about getting an EOD feed; Sharescope seems reasonably priced (relative to my level of cap investment). Only prob with SS is that you dont seem to be able to run it on multiple installations (which means I can only do the analysis at home)... going see if theres a technical solution (maybe exporting the data to a different tool.. thinking also about pfscan).

Hi Dboddy

Sharescope would be the best option IMHO. If your worried about running it at work as well as home. You can (in theory), backup the data from home and restore it at work. Sharescope provide a back-up and restore function. Might be worth checking it out with the Sharescope EOD demo

Ive been reading the FTSE Beater thread (The Basics Of Trading) which is excellent.

I'm glad you enjoyed it

 

[dboddy]

Have just ordered Sharescope EOD. Have been "playing" with it for a couple of weeks so gonna give it a pop.

FTSE Beater..

I'm glad you enjoyed it

Enjoy may be too strong a word .. reading that thread should be made compulsary for any newbs (like me).. maybe you should get it condensed / edited into a sticky?? Definitely has taught me plenty; loads I didnt know.

Any views on the TA above.. havent had too much fdback so far.

 

[FTSE Beater]

Enjoy may be too strong a word

LOL

maybe you should get it condensed / edited into a sticky??

It is on the to-do-list...somewhere on page 24 I think
It's a great idea, and one that I've thought hard about, until something else distracts me.

Any views on the TA above.. havent had too much fdback so far.

These 4 aren't stocks I would normally trade.

GWG: Looks jumpy. A wide daily range (high -> low), without the price moving to far. Average volume is also low, which can be a problem for smaller stocks. This explains why it's jumping around a lot.
The problem with low volume is that TA doesn't work as well, (TA needs crowd behaviour to function properly) and you can also have problems getting into and out of trades. There is also the problem of wider spreads. The thinner traded companies tend to have wider spreads.

ITE: Same as GWG.

MDY: Under £10. I don't like trading stocks under £10, as a £1 move is 10% won / lost, and these stocks can move £1 in a day very easily. Too much stress for me.

TSCO: Nothing wrong with Tesco to trade, but I don't like it. No logical / rational reason for it, but I just don't like it.


I'm not saying these trades won't work out, but they are not something that I would particularly look to trade.

I would be more interested in AVZ, CW. and maybe HSBA

HTH

 

[ChartMan]

I'm no expert on UK stocks, but this chart ( longer view) shows how I arrived at 285. The triangle give a target of +25 from the horizontal line ( basic target theory). This is supported by the breakout that has not YET dropped back down below support (257) and the rising resistance line. There are two stop choices- 255 and 250. If 255 fails, there is still the opportunity for support at 250. If that fails, I think it has to be bail out.
Just remember , I have no idea of the characteristics of UK stocks and I am a firm believer in learning the characteristics of each instrumewnt, be it stock, idex,Fx or whatever. I know there are those that think FA is a waste of time, but if this is where your depth of experience/expertise lies, then apply it with TA.
And in case you haven't figured it out by now, plan your exit before you place your next trade, not after.

 

[dboddy]

Well, Ive been working on TA for the past couple of hours and I feel like Im back at school again.. Definitely sticking to UK stocks at present.. Ive got enough on my plate without trying to learn new markets (and FA may be flawed, but isnt all A in some way?)

Want to keep close to the fundamentals to potentially spot MT / LT longs / shorts.. but, Im learning that on its own it can be a fairly useless strategy. Far better to make multiple entry / exit points on stks I have researched and know fairly well.

Great feedback from FTSE Beater & ChartMan.. much appreciated.

ChartMan:

And in case you haven't figured it out by now, plan your exit before you place your next trade, not after

Will do.. Think it may well be a while before jumping straight back in.. back to the books

 

[dboddy]

FTSE Beater:

I would be more interested in AVZ, CW. and maybe HSBA

Decided to put some of the info I have learnt so far to the test on these 3 stocks.

Let me know what u think if you have a min.

Overall
All these stocks seem to be positioned at the moment as longs (ie no real resistance levels for a short position). This is against overall market conditions; so Id be reluctant to have a punt on any at the mo (although, as you say, all worth watching)

AVZ
9 Month downward trend
Support being gained @328-330
Previous support broken @395 (becomes resistance)
Longer term target @460

Go Long (look for bounce from support)
Entry 334
Target 395
Stop 324

RR 61:10 6:1
Rel Cap G/L +61/334 : -10/334 +18%:-3%

Noticed that this is touching the support again today. If the support is broken (no bounce), Id look to short it wait for mid air resistance.

CW

14 month upward trend followed by fallback
Support found around 114
Resistance met around 134

Go Long (look for bounce from support)
Entry 116
Target 134
Stop 111

RR 18:5 3.6:1
Rel Cap G/L +18/116 : -5/116 +16%:-4%

Again, wouldnt take this one on.

HSBA

9 month upward trend, 8 month retreat
Support found 787
Resistance met 832

Go long
Entry 796
Target 832
Stop 784

RR 36:12 3:1
Rel Cap G/L +36/796 : -12/796 +5%:-1%

Margins r too skinny for me.