Hello Trade2Win from Ramoutar

RAMOUTAR

Junior member
My name is Jai Ramoutar, Jr. of New York City. Someone from Elite gave me a link to this site, and I'm glad I looked.

A "trees for the forest" view would be refreshing and a great learning experience for me. It would be interesting to see how many of you see the US markets. In spite of the time difference and my insomnia :), I look forward to chatting with you all. If I can be of assistance, let me know. Have a great day everyone.

Feel free to look at some of the reports I have posted on elite.


http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=22821&highlight=ramoutar+report

May the trend be with you!
 

davelong

Member
Hi Jai,

Welcome to T2W, nice of you to take to trouble to post.
I have read a lot of yours and other's posts on Elite and found them to be very helpful, interesting and at times amusing.
T2W is a similar board to Elite where there are many experienced traders and a lot of novices ( like me) and the amount of help available is quite amazing. No matter what the question is there is always someone who knows the answer.

Kind regards

David
 

Lambchops

Active member
Welcome Jai - I havn`t read them all yet but I can see that you have put a lot of time and thought into your posts. I have just found and joined elitetrader myself. Whose posts do you recommend reading?
 

RAMOUTAR

Junior member
davelong said:
Hi Jai,

Welcome to T2W, nice of you to take to trouble to post.
I have read a lot of yours and other's posts on Elite and found them to be very helpful, interesting and at times amusing.
T2W is a similar board to Elite where there are many experienced traders and a lot of novices ( like me) and the amount of help available is quite amazing. No matter what the question is there is always someone who knows the answer.

Kind regards

David

Hi David,

Thank you for the welcome. After market hours, I prefer to interact with and help other traders instead of watching all of reality shows. :)

Every week I learn something new: a new trading demon, way to improve a discipline, trading strategy etc. I don't mind sharing, many have helped and shared with me over the years.

I see my self as a "novice" everyday. I have alot of experience, and the market has humbled me. It taught me...."it is what you learn after everything, that counts." That is a JW Marriott quote.

Thanks for the chat. Be well.
 

RAMOUTAR

Junior member
Lambchops said:
Welcome Jai - I havn`t read them all yet but I can see that you have put a lot of time and thought into your posts. I have just found and joined elitetrader myself. Whose posts do you recommend reading?


Hi Lambchops,

Regardless of where the post is or who it's author is, I find that its more meaningful when it comes from someone who not only trades, but has a simlar philoshophy as you.

I have never checked into the background of the the members, and don't know if they trade. My advice is to read through the posts that have topics which interest you. WHen reading the posts you can get a feel as to whether or not the author is a trader.

Unfortunately, there are many people out there who post and teach but do not trade. Lots of good stuff out there, you'll just need to filter through it.

All the best...
 

RAMOUTAR

Junior member
bonsai said:
Jai

why the turnaround today ?

too far too fast ?

I understand that one of the US FOMC governors said the US economy was far from being out of the woods, and my opinion is after last weeks violent drop in gold, the heavies took profits on equities and averaged down on gold. Most of the VWAPS and OBV in my trading stable point to big volume selling pressure at the weeks resistance.

These are all theories, and who really knows. I try and take the news and gossip less seriously, and trade the support and resistance levels more seriously. The technicals say selling pressure from the heavies.

I did three trades today.

bot drooy and bgo after they pulled back into solid support. Holding these for swings.

Caught a long on CEPH (my nemesis) late day and sold them at the close.


Best regards,
 

bonsai

Veteren member
ok, I'm not a news fan myself.

But are these heavies 'new' sellers, do you think or just opportunist bull closers types.

any clues ?
where did they put their money ?
 

RAMOUTAR

Junior member
bonsai said:
ok, I'm not a news fan myself.

But are these heavies 'new' sellers, do you think or just opportunist bull closers types.

any clues ?
where did they put their money ?


The heavies or insititutional money seems to have take short term profits not related to longer term holdings. The VWAP and OBV suggest that a large amount of buying pressure went into gold. Vertical supply and support on the $HUI (amex gold bugs) and volume bias and monetum suggest a large late day accumulation.
 

davelong

Member
Jai, bonsai,

Just when I think I have pushed back the frontiers of my trading knowledge to an incredible extent I read 4 posts and am brought very swiftly back to earth with the realization that I obviously have not hardly begun the journey.
Never mind, it looks like it will be a fascinating trip.
I will keep these 4 posts and when I can understand them I will know that I am really getting somewhere.
Seriously though ( I was being serious) the knowledge possessed
by people on these boards is absolutely awesome.

Kind regards


David
 

RAMOUTAR

Junior member
David,

Truth is I didn't really give much thought to what caused the major late day reversal, I just reacted to it. Bonsai's question forced me to recall all of the events that led up to the reversal.

Aside from having a plan for every trade, I usually take action based on reflex (some folks call it instinct). When you do the same thing over and over again, it becomes instinctive.

This thread has been very valuable to me as well. It forced me to review and change some components of my personal trading plan, which I just completed this morning.

When these types of boards are used properly, that's the desired effect: knowing you can log in and learn something. Unfortunately, there are boards in the US where people just bash each other and spew negativity, rather than seek or provide help to become better traders. My cyber trip across the Atlantic to T2W, has been a great one so far. The folks here see to have more class. Thanks.

We are all student's of the market :)
 

indexking

Active member
Hello All

Just thought I'd add my take on the current trading situation.
Personally I think that what is pushing these markets to marginally higher highs is the dumb money. These new highs are achieved on thin volumes like the other day when they Dow surged and dropped 100 in the afternoon.
If you're borrowing money to buy shares like the US people seem to be doing, and looking to wait 30 odd years for a return on your investment (S&P at nearly 40x earnings), you have to expect volatility like that. Thats the reason the Europeans haven't kept pace with the US markets.
Personally I think fair value on the Dow and S&P is 8500 and 900 respectively. I find it daunting though that there is a lot of tech share selling from Directors (on the inside). Clearly everyone's waiting for the big tumble ! And why is Gold rallying as well ??
I think that with these next earnings reports the markets could tumble as people see that the shares they hold are very expensive compared to earnings. Buy on the rumour and sell on the news seems to be a sage investement strategy.

Regards
Hugo
 

RAMOUTAR

Junior member
Hugo,


You and I share a very similar outlook on the US market. The rally seemed to be an orderly one, until it started flirting with highs in the S&P. My skepticism has kept me out of several long setups, since the volume was too light to justify the move.

Gap ups accompanied by little to no increase in volume are one of the classic signs of an unsustainable rally. Although the rally appears to be momentous, it lacks the increased volume to tackle overhead resistance (1040-1050 SPX, 34.50 GE, 95.50 IBM, 37.50-38.00 DELL, 36.00 INTC). Too many traders look at the daily & the 52 week timeframe. They don't see all of the overhead supply back further.
 

RogerM

Established member
Welcome to T2W Jai. I've already read some of your offerings on elitetrader, and they will be equally welcome here.

I am also growing very wary of this rally, apart from on an intraday basis. But I have been burned before by standing in front of it. I guess it depends on your timeframe. I see very little mention of the fact that inside sellers (directors) out number inside buyers by 34:1 - hardly an inspiration of confidence. In the longer term debt will catch up with the market, particularly when interest rates start to rise. But that will probably not be until after Xmas - and that is a lifetime away in the markets!
 

RAMOUTAR

Junior member
Roger,

Thanks for the welcome. I have gone long several times into the rally, but have cut my profits shorter. In the longer timeframes one can catch the gaps, and on an intra-day basis the follow through has been very choppy.

As I reply I have taken profits on intra-day longs. I'll remain extra cautious as we head into massive resistance overhead.
 

RAMOUTAR

Junior member
It was interesting how we had this discussion abou the SPX and gold. Friday, I lightened up my swing longs, and increased my position on gold stocks. I like to stick with the junior gold stocks. In earlier posts I said that I was very cautious about this rally that we have in the SPX. I haven't stood in front of the rally, just exercised increased caution in my longs. The drastic selloff in gold produced great opportunities to increase longs while keeping tight stops. Since my posts here, I received a couple of private messages asking me to expand on my outlook of the market. I will reply to all PMs, but I thought you would find these charts interesting..
 

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RAMOUTAR

Junior member
The first chart is a weekly of the SPX, the smaller timeframe is shown in the thumbnail. MOst traders that I have spoken with look at the daily and don't care much for the weekly. I sure do hope it stays that way :) Many people will say to forget about resistance if its more than 18 months old. I don't subscrive to that theory. The SPX is headed for some major selling pressure.


The next chart is the $HUI the AMEX Gold BUGS. The longer term pattern points to a continuation, and I believe that continuation will pack a bigger punch if the SPX stalls below 1050.
 

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bgold

Established member
Jay, thanks for your "attributes to trading success on eSignal" forum. While I am already working on golf with same objectives, this is (once again) a helpful reminder to get myself a "PLAN" and make the big transition.

As for your observations for outlook of gold and gold stocks, I would agree with analysis. The uptrend is clearly still in place. fe XAU found recent support at 55EMA while HUI stayed well above. OBV is positive while MACD may be turning upwards.

There are, however, a few indicators which bother me.
Virtually without exception, XAU, HUI and all stocks (even the small caps which are making new highs - LIHRY, BVN, ASL) show Neg Divergence in daily and weekly momentum indicators like RSI, CCI, MOM, ROC. Money Flow is also still trending down.

Gold (i looked at the GC Z3 contract) seems to display similar momentum weakness in daily and weekly timeframes. Meanwhile, i understand in Friday’s release of the Commitment of Traders data that the commercial hedgers and large speculators have only backed of little from their respective record net-short position and net long positions. Not exactly a starting point for the next bull run.

While I am convinced about the long term case for gold, I am not yet convinced that current risk reward warrants to be long the goldmining sector. Especially, the small/midcaps have crash potential once investors run for the exits.
I would much appreciate to hear your views?
thanks
JP

PS. James Turk's Fear Index (see below) points to a great gold bull market, that is unless you believe people like Robert Prechter who forecast deflationary environment with consequently shrinking M3. But hey, let's not deviate from the next trade idea.
 

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RAMOUTAR

Junior member
bgold said:
Jay, thanks for your "attributes to trading success on eSignal" forum. While I am already working on golf with same objectives, this is (once again) a helpful reminder to get myself a "PLAN" and make the big transition.

As for your observations for outlook of gold and gold stocks, I would agree with analysis. The uptrend is clearly still in place. fe XAU found recent support at 55EMA while HUI stayed well above. OBV is positive while MACD may be turning upwards.

There are, however, a few indicators which bother me.
Virtually without exception, XAU, HUI and all stocks (even the small caps which are making new highs - LIHRY, BVN, ASL) show Neg Divergence in daily and weekly momentum indicators like RSI, CCI, MOM, ROC. Money Flow is also still trending down.

Gold (i looked at the GC Z3 contract) seems to display similar momentum weakness in daily and weekly timeframes. Meanwhile, i understand in Friday’s release of the Commitment of Traders data that the commercial hedgers and large speculators have only backed of little from their respective record net-short position and net long positions. Not exactly a starting point for the next bull run.

While I am convinced about the long term case for gold, I am not yet convinced that current risk reward warrants to be long the goldmining sector. Especially, the small/midcaps have crash potential once investors run for the exits.
I would much appreciate to hear your views?
thanks
JP

PS. James Turk's Fear Index (see below) points to a great gold bull market, that is unless you believe people like Robert Prechter who forecast deflationary environment with consequently shrinking M3. But hey, let's not deviate from the next trade idea.

JP,

Great post! I have never seen Mr. Turk's Index, thanks for sharing. I appreciate your analysis on gold. I trade many of the junior gold stocks, rarely interest in the larger ones. I have been able to realize some nice swing, but my "clock was cleaned" in that downward spike. Shortly after the afternoon of the selloff I accumulated quite a bit slightly above major suport. This entry allowed me to have a tighter stop, but would run into much of the older resistance once the wide range selloff bar was negotiated.

The weekly of the $SPX tells me that in spite of an enormous adn controlled rally, we are headed for some mature, yet angry resistance. While the weekly and daily on BGO (AMEX) for example has been quite robust, I do remain more cautious on the continuing trend in gold.

I have taken some profits and reduced my exposure on the gold equities, and will probably continue that stance while watching the $SPX fight resistance.

Thanks again for sharing this index (can you please post a link for more info?).

Glad your enjoying the posts. Please check the eSignal Central Bulletin Board, I have been asked to moderate a forum there, and will be writing monthly articles for their learning center. There's a lot of helpful information coming down the pike!
 
 
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