Has anyone traded at the forex market and made money?

[DionysusToast]

The lady doth protest too much, methinks

There are 2 different approaches suggested in this thread.

1 - Use pure math, sit in a darkened room for 8 years figuring out a mechanical system that resolves the markets. After this 8 years, turn $9K into $14 million in 6.75 months.

2 - Find out what causes intra-day moves, spend the time to learn how to read buying/selling pressure. Use this skill for you bread & butter trading.

We all know that most people attempting to follow path 1 would both fail AND spend a large chunk of their lives reaching that failure point. Consider it similar to wanting to be the next Robbie Williams, the desire will not be enough. Raw talent and a large element of luck would be required if the approach were actually possible.

People wanting to follow path 2 would get there in perhaps 6-9 months and then have a skill they could apply on a daily basis with a reasonably small amount of effort on a daily basis. They would also have time to research other opportunities. More importantly, they would have a lot of hands-on experience at this point.

If you asked most people where they will be in 6 days time at 4:33pm, they will struggle to answer. If you asked people where they will be in 10 minutes time, they will easily answer. So it is with the markets. Trading the extremely short term is a very different skill from trading the longer term.

 

[TraderNumber7]

There are 2 different approaches suggested in this thread.

1 - Use pure math, sit in a darkened room for 8 years figuring out a mechanical system that resolves the markets. After this 8 years, turn $9K into $14 million in 6.75 months.

Which produced this result for Number 1:

Midweek Update:

EURUSD: Long 3664 - Net Pips: 116. Gross Pips 175. Target: Struck.
GBPUSD: Long 5628 - Net Pips: -15. Gross Pips 136. Target: Struck.
AUDUSD: Long 8670 - Net Pips: 200. Gross Pips 220. Target: Struck.
NZDUSD: Long 6870 - Net Pips: 106. Gross Pips 119. Target: Struck.
USDCHF: Short 0727 - Net Pips: 85. Gross Pips 120. Target: Struck.
USDJPY: Long 8937 - Net Pips: 49. Gross Pips 76. Target: Struck.
EURCHF: Long 4659 - Net Pips: 4. Gross Pips 32. Target: Pending.
EURGBP: Short 8740 - Net Pips: -72. Gross Pips 9. Target: Pending.
EURJPY: Long 12212 - Net Pips: 170. Gross Pips 213. Target: Struck.
GBPJPY: Long 13968 - Net Pips: 82. Gross Pips 170. Target: Struck.
CHFJPY: Long 8328 - Net Pips: 115. Gross Pips 135. Target: Struck.
GBPCHF: Long 6766 - Net Pips: -133. Gross Pips 40. Target: Pending.
EURAUD: Short 5752 - Net Pips: 225. Gross Pips 255. Target: Struck.
AUDCAD: Long 9277 - Net Pips: 117. Gross Pips 137. Target: Struck.
AUDJPY: Long 7750 - Net Pips: 221. Gross Pips 248. Target: Struck.
NZDJPY: Long 6139 - Net Pips: 130. Gross Pips 149. Target: Struck.
GBPCAD: Long 6748 - Net Pips: -192. Gross Pips 50. Target: Pending.

(as of Close at 1925hrs GMT 2/10/10)


Total Net Pips: +1,208 (included losses)
Targets Struck: 14 of 17 82%
Aggregate Net Pips the Profile: +71
Target Net Pips: +63
Target Pip Performance: 112%
Reserve Pips: 136

Total Equity In Trade: $470,200.00
Per Pip Value: $4,700.00 per pip.
Gross Net P/L: +$333,700.00
Percent Net Gain/Loss: 70.96%
Total Time In Trade: 72 hours

2 - Find out what causes intra-day moves, spend the time to learn how to read buying/selling pressure. Use this skill for you bread & butter trading.

Which produced this results for Number 2:

We all know that most people attempting to follow path 1 would both fail AND spend a large chunk of their lives reaching that failure point. People wanting to follow path 2 would get there in perhaps 6-9 months and then have a skill they could apply on a daily basis with a reasonably small amount of effort on a daily basis....

Fact Check:

Results number 1 above produced 70%+ in net gains.
Results number 2 above produced Squanto net gains.

According the rule of not being able to trade stock for free, "following" number 2 above would go broke on the commission cost curve alone with that kind of trading. So, not only would you end up not having any "Bread" but you would end up not having any "Butter" as well.

On the other hand, following number 1 above, would add significantly more than a quarter million to the bottom line. Enough to buy both "Bread AND Butter."

So, according to the facts in this thread and not the delusional condition of the one who made this hopeless post, mathematics wins and guessing loses.

Here's the scoreboard in case you prefer a graphic:

Team Mathematics: 70 points
Team Guessing: 0 points (minus commissions)

If you asked most people where they will be in 6 days time at 4:33pm, they will struggle to answer.

Well, according to the Fact Check above, if they were on Team Guessing, they would be flat broke after their trade goes nowhere and they paid their Broker's commission. They would also be Bread-less and Butter-less for the winter.


TradeSMART by Managing your Position. :smart:

 

[DionysusToast]

"According the rule of not being able to trade stock for free, "following" number 2 above would go broke on the commission cost curve alone with that kind of trading. So, not only would you end up not having any "Bread" but you would end up not having any "Butter" as well."

You have a good knowledge of math but seemingly very little knowledge of half a cent commission per side or the activity of day trading.

Keep going though. Your shorter posts provide much mirth.

 

[LittleKnown]

See the above post.

If you are going to P**** then I would suggest not doing it into the wind. That's the same thing as trading a single pair. It leaves you naked and exposed to ruin when things go wrong.

There is safety in numbers - a basic axiom so easy to understand, that even a Cave Man could apply it. As a newbie, your first task is to discover as many Deltas in the price action that you can get your mind around.

A price action Delta is simple: Open to High, that's a Delta. High to Low, that's a Delta. Low to Close, that's a Delta. Open to Low, that's a Delta. High to Close, that's a Delta too. These are the most Cave Man like Deltas in the business, but there are literally a myriad more to discover. And, that is where research comes in handy. There are more PAD (Price Action Deltas) then you will live long enough to discover and fully explore. And, you don't need to find them all. Just find some that work for you on a consistent basis and then develop trading rules around them (called a Logical Wrapper - aka: Algorithm).

Having done so, your "TA" system will be based on something that 99+% of all other TA systems out there are NOT based on and THAT will be your strategic Edge. Your tactical Edge, will be in how you implement your signals, execute your trades and manage your money.

The rest is history, literally....history, simply repeating itself. Time, after time, after time, after time.

The problem with these Neo-wanna-be traders, is that thy don't understand that this is ALL: "just a little bit of History repeating."

[youtube_browser]Z020ax4_mXg[/youtube_browser]

Thanks for reply TN7, I don't p**s into the wind and I don't intend on doing so either, have follwed your 17 pairs and well done, like I say I am new, and I know I have a lot to learn, thanks for explaining the price action Delta, and dionysus explained the safety in numbers thing I think, or not, according to you, have just read everything

 

[TraderNumber7]

Keep going though. Your shorter posts provide much mirth.

Yeah, I'm sure that's the case when you net zilch and then proclaim another can't possibly do what was put right in front of your face.

Trade 2 Win. Is that not the name of the site. It certainly is not Trade 2 Pay Commissions.

 

[TraderNumber7]

Thanks for reply TN7...

You are welcome. There is a better explanation of the concept here:




TradeSMART by Managing your Position. :smart:

 

[DionysusToast]

Yeah, I'm sure that's the case when you net zilch and then proclaim another can't possibly do what was put right in front of your face.

Trade 2 Win. Is that not the name of the site. It certainly is not Trade 2 Pay Commissions.

 

[fayalac]

OUCH...., what a question!, let me ask you these, which markets can you name at which everyone lose?, of course there are winners and losers, according to you ( experience, methodology, patience, and so forth. ) you will decide at which side you will be standing on.

 

[elitejets]

Yes

 

[Prawnsandwich]

Yes

This thread is like a carbon copy of a recent "discussion" I had with some of the "TA doesnt work" brigade

What I find amazing is the continued refusal to accept what is right in front of their faces....and the pure volume of posts......denial can be a very strong thing...

Fair play to Trader7 for some excellent and entertaining responses !

 

[TraderNumber7]

This thread is like a carbon copy of a recent "discussion" I had with some of the "TA doesnt work" brigade

What I find amazing is the continued refusal to accept what is right in front of their faces....and the pure volume of posts......denial can be a very strong thing...

Fair play to Trader7 for some excellent and entertaining responses !

I actually like the guy, really - I do. Heck, he's an engineer! How can I not like a family member.

I've never met an engineer that I did not like, but I have met a couple/few that I strongly disagreed with about many things "technical." This is part (not all) of what drives some engineers anyway - somebody uttering the words: "It can't be done."

 

[lbranjord]

I actually like the guy, really - I do. Heck, he's an engineer! How can I not like a family member.

I've never met an engineer that I did not like, but I have met a couple/few that I strongly disagreed with about many things "technical." This is part (not all) of what drives some engineers anyway - somebody uttering the words: "It can't be done."

Yes, many can and do make primary or secondary income from Forex. It seems like it makes a better secondary, in my opinion. Best to have other investments so you are not emotionally dependant on it. :smart:

 

[Masquerade]

Yes

Is that you Neo?!? :-0

 

[clorets]

Agree with lbranjord,
Forex can be a very good secondary income, specially for swing and longer term traders. You just have to make sure that you have the time to analyse the makets well and not miss any major event because of work.

In reply to the the topic starter: yes, a lot of people make money trading forex, but I guess a larger portion looses money in the long term.

 

[TraderNumber7]

Yes, many can and do make primary or secondary income from Forex. It seems like it makes a better secondary, in my opinion. Best to have other investments so you are not emotionally dependant on it. :smart:

Understood. However, that's what systems help to reduce - the emotion. Build a better system and greatly reduce the stress levels, is my axiom. Also, the more you learn about the data, the more fear you remove from the process.

Recall, we fear that which we understand the least. Thus, if we understood the data more, we should fear less.

Second income stream? I don't see any problem with that. But, I have yet to find a deeper reservoir of cash-flow with the same underlying harmonic structure (read: predictability over short periods of time). Tap into the harmonics of the market and the reservoir is revealed.

 

[lbranjord]

Understood. However, that's what systems help to reduce - the emotion. Build a better system and greatly reduce the stress levels, is my axiom. Also, the more you learn about the data, the more fear you remove from the process.

Recall, we fear that which we understand the least. Thus, if we understood the data more, we should fear less.

Second income stream? I don't see any problem with that. But, I have yet to find a deeper reservoir of cash-flow with the same underlying harmonic structure (read: predictability over short periods of time). Tap into the harmonics of the market and the reservoir is revealed.

Great wisdom here! I have noticed this happening. My first demo acct, I lost and learned, lost and learned. Then, I went a whole week positive, using the 3 ducks simple strategy. Despite my burst of success I lost all my profits, probably overtrading or bending rules to the strategy. (can't remember)

Next big acheivement, I went a whole month positive and raked in pips (by my noob standards) using the same strategy, again, I went back down, don't remember how but it was psychological for sure. Overtrading and lack of understanding for Risk/Reward ideals.

Now, I am on another VERY simple technical plan. I use EMA crosses, Stoch, RSI and it is well balanced. I actually use the plan as a guideline, I don't enter every setup like I used to. Finally, I'm starting to have an intuition, I see supports and resistances, averages, patterns, things I was missing.

The result of this growth is that I have less fear like TraderNumber7 said. I don't feel like I'm missing opportunities when I don't trade and the emotional stress is much less. My advice to absolute beginners is to Take equal excitement in knowing that you DIDN'T trade sometimes, think how much money you saved! (Notice how compulsive spenders are always broke? Same in Forex.) Find perfect setups, trades that make your toes tingle and milk the pip out of them.

 

[montmorencyt2w]

Learning when not to trade will certainly help you not to overtrade, if nothing else.

On the other hand, there is also such a thing as undertrading.

Hard to explain as it's a very individual thing. Probably you only know you were undertrading in hindsight. With overtrading, you probably realise you are doing it, but still you carry on.

 

[BlueChilli]

nobody on this forum does or has btw!!fact..

 

[lbranjord]

nobody on this forum does or has btw!!fact..

So is that your confession? Cause you can only speak for yourself you know.