Gold 2013 ......a lack lustre year?

Bearish on Gold here longterm :

Stocks making new highs.

Yen crosses eventually started moving aggressively .

FED unwinding .

VIX very low .

Treasuries backing off .

That being said i wouldn't be surprised to see a last nice leg up 1600-2200 , which will give opportunities to scale in shorts . Targets 1400 , 1200 and maybe 900 by 2015 .

IMO
 
Bearish on Gold here longterm :

Stocks making new highs.

Yen crosses eventually started moving aggressively .

FED unwinding .

VIX very low .

Treasuries backing off .

That being said i wouldn't be surprised to see a last nice leg up 1600-2200 , which will give opportunities to scale in shorts . Targets 1400 , 1200 and maybe 900 by 2015 .

IMO

It's impossible for them to unwind. QE is an absolute must in order to keep rates down on their completely unserviceable debt. As soon as rates rise, so does their debt exponentially, which is why it is impossible for them ever to stop QE. It truly is their only option. Also, do not for a second believe that the "unwinding" comment in the minutes was genuine; it was solely placed there to knock down gold.
 
It's impossible for them to unwind. QE is an absolute must in order to keep rates down on their completely unserviceable debt. As soon as rates rise, so does their debt exponentially, which is why it is impossible for them ever to stop QE. It truly is their only option. Also, do not for a second believe that the "unwinding" comment in the minutes was genuine; it was solely placed there to knock down gold.

No other reason at all ? :-0
 
That's my opinion. They know full well the implications of a rising gold price, and they are running scared.

US not worried about gold at all imo. Only the dollar.

European debt is almost double US per GDP. Yet we are seeing the Euro make new highs. Watch out for adjustment in the next month as the dollar strengthens and subsequent effect on gold. :idea:
 
US not worried about gold at all imo. Only the dollar.

European debt is almost double US per GDP. Yet we are seeing the Euro make new highs. Watch out for adjustment in the next month as the dollar strengthens and subsequent effect on gold. :idea:

The passing of time will settle this particular debate.

GTTY.
 
Took the opportunity to top up my Gold position (first time in a year or so) on Friday, to keep me at 15%.

I hate doing it, but now seems like a good time. GBP has the potential to finally get the spanking it deserves and we're near the bottom end of a trading range in Gold.

It would seem there's been plenty of liquidation by large speculators. I'm sure Bloomberg reported long positions at a multi-year low. This should please the Bulls, that's alot of selling which has been removed.
 
bulls looking as deserted as this thread.....

weekly buying bulge by Commercials on finviz.com typical of buying cheap supply
money managers in selling mode, retailers in freak-out mode.....seems the right mixture for a ping off the, talking heads favourite, zone of 1530ish

lacklustre year so far alright
$$
 
Took the opportunity to top up my Gold position (first time in a year or so) on Friday, to keep me at 15%.

I'm doing the same, but I prefer 25% allocation. Postman should be stopping by any minute with a package of one Ounce Britannias (I don't like the coin, it's too big/thin, much prefer the Krugerrands but the Britannias are GCT except).

Been nibbling at some of the mining stocks all week, will continue to slowly add on further weakness. Plenty of value in those stocks right now looking at a 1-5 year horizon.

Personally I hope they take Gold even lower, we'll see....
 
I'm doing the same, but I prefer 25% allocation. Postman should be stopping by any minute with a package of one Ounce Britannias (I don't like the coin, it's too big/thin, much prefer the Krugerrands but the Britannias are GCT except).

Been nibbling at some of the mining stocks all week, will continue to slowly add on further weakness. Plenty of value in those stocks right now looking at a 1-5 year horizon.

Personally I hope they take Gold even lower, we'll see....


For the first time in a long while I'm feeling bullish about gold (y)

Reason being the sound of beating drums in the distance usually is enough to get that old uncertainty buying urge going...

Not to mention Tokyo's war with deflation and talk of plan-B for Europe.
 
those nuggets keep getting cheaper......low 1400's looks good

beware ardent bears, sentiment is maxed out to the downside.......
 
I was just about to post here... what's caused the massive drop today?

Big technical levels being breached + never discount the herd effect in Gold, it's far greater than other markets so selling creates more selling and vice-versa. Also, the Cyprus Gold situation has had an effect. Typical politicians, if it's not nailed down they want it. But if Cyprus or any other country were clever, they'd keep hold of their Gold and use it to back some Bonds. But they're not, so the bankers will some how use the politicians to get their greedy clammy hands on it. And if they were even more clever they'd re-value Gold at $10,000 - $20,000, then the massive debt problem would turn into a tiny debt problem....

I've been adding today, buying every $25 lower so $1550, $1525, £1500 etc. No margin and with a long term horizon (2-5 years). Personally I hope they smash the metal to $1200 or below. Unlikely but you never know in this game...

I'm also buying and have many further orders in for some of the Mining stocks because any well run company with assets, dividends, profits, history, good management is a hell of a buy when they smack the shares 75%. GDXJ for example is a steal at $11 should it get there (I hope it does even though I'm already long a touch :) )
 
By the way for anyone interested never discount the use of spread bets for long term investing. I've been buying my Gold using them, looking to hold the position for potentially many years. Yes, you don't own the physical but profits are tax-free (losses though cannot be offset against CGT), tight spreads versus physical, quick to trade, in and out, money guaranteed up to £48k etc.
 
What about overnight financing costs?

There aren't any if you buy June, then Aug then Dec etc. Just keep rolling the position. Sure, there will be some financing costs involved due to how the futures are priced but these will be negigble and about the same if one were to trade the actual future, but the futures are too big for me at $100 a $1. So spread bets offer another advantage, a lot of flexibility.

You only get financing costs if you buy the daily bet which should be used for all trades lasting under a week, otherwise use the more traditional months (the further out the better for long term positions).
 
The Korean crisis might bump the price up a bit, especially if Ill let's one off. Otherwise a drift lower. Must surely hit bottom around 1450 ?
 

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The Korean crisis might bump the price up a bit, especially if Ill let's one off. Otherwise a drift lower. Must surely hit bottom around 1450 ?

trade the price based on the pricing itself rather than some nefarious reasoning regardless of how logical it might be at the time....topical news driven reasoning has already seen many traders lose a bundle especially those adding "because it's cheap(er)"

if the news was a driver up-stream you could argue that gold would be much lower than it is now because the news is making it more bouyant than it would without the news....this morning i read some whacky reasoning on the decline from mine closures to stronger equities.....well, mine closures are always happening (only 1 in 3000 goes into production in the US) and equities were on the rise since mar 09 so how that could be measured is purely guess work just like all the anecdotal reasoning......all this merely means is, trade the price not the opines......ignore all the emotive logic and theories, simply trade the price and keep sizing appropriate....it's not now, nor has it ever been, an investment, just a tradeable commodity

keeping a wider time-frame pov, as a starting point, might make a difference each time you consider your opinion.....getting out with a small loss now means having cash later and being in cash gives you time to think, at least, give yourself a balanced approached......imho

here's the kicker for anecdotal reasoning: all the forward looking news stuff is already written into the price by the commercial and money managers, so, maybe some diligence about them might make a difference.....afterall, how well-informed can a retail "investor" be? Keep in mind that the money managers have to be trend following, which means they go from being-long-to-exiting-to-being-short, theyre enforcing the trend by dollar weight, so, retailers reasoning that some fat kid born into rocket dynasty isnt really quite in the same ball park, that doesnt mean a rogue event wont cause a tradeable bounce, but really, when you look at the recent news driven reason for the bounce last week that was used to sell into, then, right there, breaking those crucial levels was the key so if that's true, the next bounce will carry the same implications regardless of the excuse for bigger players use against....i've seen a lot of fundamentalist bulls recently use long-term charts to justify that now is the time to buy more in this "consolidation" period......consolidations can dig very deep and have to to make price be cheap to attract long term liqudity, the question you might want to ask is at what point does the capital, that's already in place for several years, think that a decade bull market is long enough?

at the current decline in volume size and momo i'll have to stop trying to trade like i did this morning......we're at the 'point of recognition' is my best guess with a lot more of the same to come and we're likely to see those money managers join the selling party from longs to flat to short......

lack-buster year more like.....and not many lulz for the bulls
 

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trade the price based on the pricing itself ..


Commitments of Traders - CFTC
chart courtesy finviz.com

there are plenty of providers that can give you insight into interpreting the COT report... find one that doesnt just look at numbers that you could do yourself by using the free weekly COT report, find someone that can interpret the buy/sell ratios....there's a few around...at least you can track real activity.....
 

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lol, here's a quotable opine:

twitrationale:
Walter Murphy ‏@waltergmurphy 5h

Took a while to do it, but today's breakdown in #gold confirms the reversal of a five-wave uptrend from the 1999 low. #secular

i think Walter has been trading longer than i've been alive
 
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