it depends on the fundamentals (fyi i dont control or influence the fundamentals hence why i cannot answer your q).....being:
1.continuation of QE (see most fiat CBs) - maybe - but inflationary pressures still low
2.more tax hikes (see most fiat countries) - about time we paid back debt
3.implementation of capital controls (see cyprus as 1st example; india just banned import of gold coins & again increased commission on buying gold) - short term measures (look at Argentina's experience as an example case. India's banns to protect its foolish citizens from buying gold when its about to drop. Consider it as a leakage in the economy spending rupees on daft gold which has no economic function or benefit
4.social unrest - when where? so what's happened in Greece and Cyprus. you expecting worst case scenarios?
not saying all will happen in every fiat country, but all of the above are occurring now in some parts of the fiat world inc the major fiat economies (US, EU, Japan, UK et al).
actually the t/f is not necessarily directly related to those implementing the policies, it may be dependent on when the world finally loses faith in those govts/CBs implementing said policies. This cld be from the public losing faith eg social unrest (unlikely in US/UK - too hooked on pizza deliveries & pop idol), but may be more subtle but equally devastating ie mass gilt dumping / rising interest rates in the west despite the best efforts to surpress them (which is happening now - see US/UK/EU). Japan defaulting cld be a trigger also as contagion is a clear & well documented threat, the EU JPY carry trade will no longer work & EU banks will then go bust.
basically whilst 1 & 2 continues i will continue to 'investment' in non fiat vehicles (gold, gold funds, non fiat linked funds etc). if 3 happens on large scale then gold will go parabolic. lets hope 4 doesnt happen.
nb: this has nothing to do with day trading.
