Getting the Vapours

TBS

Well-known member
385 0
Getting The Vapours

Anyone remember The Vapors?



Here are a couple of charts, I was quite struck by the similarity:



A pretty nice head and shoulders formation, a destructive one with a target of 5.



Again a reasonably distinctive H&S reversal, although to be fair not quite as well pronounced as the first, however it is potentially just as destructive as the first.

The comparisons between the two are fairly close, the head to neck measurements are 36% and 43% respectively , the shoulders were made from price action bounces of 16 and 13% respectively.

Also, to give you a real clue, the formations took around 6 years to complete.

Another observation is that they both have broken initial trends and failed to make their targets, both double bottomed, had another sniff at the lows and then rose through the trend, attacking the neckline, indeed breaking slightly above it.

All in all, the similarities are quite stark, bearing in mind that price action is the net product of the hopes and fears of those involved in the market.

Now, the real killer:

The second chart is the SP500 as we are trading it now:



The first chart is an extract from the breakdown of the Nikkei from 1987-1993, 10 years later it has come within 2500 points of its target and is still in an overall bear trend, which although broken a couple of times to neutral, has never made it back to a bull market, despite some very impressive 30% rallies.



Could this be the future of the US stock markets?

.. and as for The Vapors?

An extract from their most famous song………….

No ***, no drugs, no wine, no women
No fun, no sin, no you, no wonder it's dark
Everyone around me is a total stranger
Everyone avoids me like a psyched lone-ranger Everyone

That's why I'm turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so
Turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so
I'm turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so
Turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so
 

JonnyT

Senior member
2,560 22
Hi Sandy,

I have an original vinyl copy of 'Turning Japanese'

I really hope this isn't going to happen. Imagine the effects on the economy.

JonnyT
 

TBS

Well-known member
385 0
Ha, I knew someone would ;)

I think it is safe to say that none of us want to be in a Japanese style breakdown, but the economic news out there is far from rosey (despite the spin), so who knows!
 
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