Was just reading an article which stated that the Japanese stock market accounted for over half of the world's market capitalisation at its peak. How is this possible when the US has a population almost 3 times as large and its current gdp is more than double the japanese gdp? Was japanese gdp at one point very close to that of the US? And after the long period of stagnation while the US was still growing cause the two gdps to be what they are today?
Was the Japanese stock market larger than the US during the 1980s?
This was true as I remember the Nikkei index reached great heights about 35,000 as far as I remember as part of th big bubble. Japanese property prices were also part of that bubble.
I was working for a US company at that time and in common with other US companies we were frantically trying to adopt the Japanese methods of doing business in manufacturing and general business, as these methods were seen as the future in the world. We even adopted "Hoshin planning" , which was a Japanese system of business planning. At that time Japenese was all the rage and the best.
I was working for a US company at that time and in common with other US companies we were frantically trying to adopt the Japanese methods of doing business in manufacturing and general business, as these methods were seen as the future in the world. We even adopted "Hoshin planning" , which was a Japanese system of business planning. At that time Japenese was all the rage and the best.
So moral of the story is we can expect the same to happen to China being all the rage and the best. People won't be harping on about the benefits of a strong authoritarian government.
You make a good point there, the problem is although it will definitely happen at some time nobody knows when!!! But when it does happen it will be a serious event. My guess is it will happen in a couple of years but that is pure guesswork.
The Chinese situation does not appear to have achieved the same pitch yet as the Japanese situation did, but it cannot be that far off.
After the Japanese bubble burst, there were so many "experts" explaining why it happened, but these same "experts" could not forsee it.
I think the definition of a economics expert is someone who "will tell you tomorrow, why what he failed to predict yesterday, happened today.
You might call it a "Black swan" event...
The big difference between China and Japan is simple..... population.
China is over 10 times the size of Japan in terms of populous and looking at it from another angle... Japan has a similar population to blighty.
China will have a middle class, that drive local demand, that is 3 or 4 times the population of the entire numbers in Japan.
Size matters.
China is over 10 times the size of Japan in terms of populous and looking at it from another angle... Japan has a similar population to blighty.
China will have a middle class, that drive local demand, that is 3 or 4 times the population of the entire numbers in Japan.
Size matters.
scose-no-doubt
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,630
- Likes
- 954
and the Chinese population saves rather than accumulating debt or cashing in unrealised equity
No point arguing. Put your money where your mouth is and buy puts. Then instead of telling everyone I told you so you can just gaze longingly at your bank account.
Would be rather silly to buy Puts at the moment as I don't really see China crashing for a couple of years yet.
At least I don't go around telling everybody "This time it is different"
