Personally I am looking for the pound to drop - I have no target though. My basic reading of the chart suggests a continued drop....Gut feel is for a turnaround mid week - but of course we don't work on emotions :cheesy:
i don't know about this week, but in the next few months i figure that the dollar will be sold at every opportunity and before next years election, don't be surprised to see a dollar backed by gold in order to prevent it's ultimate destruction. The debt in the US is out of control and they are in a box that they cannot escape. This is hte real troof behind the American economy
US dollar is in big trouble. Greenspan didn't really have the option of dropping rates by more than .25% If he had, all hell would've broken loose on the dollar...
Pound is benefiting from interest rate differentials...following Norway's rate cut, the pound offers the highest rate available from as far as developed nations are concerned, making it an excellent yield play. Debt wise it's also considered to be at least the second best debtor globally. So there is much demand for the currency; it is benefiting from positive flows.
Neckline of head & shoulder comes in at 1.6640 today so bears can argue that it's just a retracement whilst under there. Bulls will point to the fact that the long term trend is still intact. Euro will be key to cable's movements.
We have just seen the break of the down trend and the possible start of a new up trend.
There is also an resistance level at 6560 which it has just penetrated and found support from there was also some minor resistance which was marked at 6590.
Very loosely based on these levels it appears to be an ascending triangle which has just confirmed a break out. I would give this a target of 1.6710 there abouts. if it can get past some previous minor resistance at 1.6660 and 1.6690 and reach my target then it would not be imposable for it to get back to 1.6800
At the time we discussed this in the chat room and the direction of the break out. I am currently long 1.6525, 1.6536, 1.6575. At the time of writing 1.6625 has just been filled
I was also told in the chat room that the funnymentals could warrant such a move but i dont look at them so cant comment
As we see events unfold, there are several features which stand out. Continuing with just the patterns that are plain to see there are two ascending triangles forming, the smaller of the two looks better formed thus far and is showing a target of 0.0135 points. The uptrend is finding previous resistance which, i thought would only be minor, and could show a larger ascending triangle with a target of 0.0195 point.
The more interesting factor is that this is only basic TA and we are seeing patterns within patterns which, in my mind, demonstrates the simplicity with which you can successfully trade with only a small amount of knowledge.
At present, unable to regain neck line (today comes in at about 1.6650). The present fluctuation could last for a few days but the pair will need to stay above 1.6550 otherwise it risks the resumption of the recent downtrend. Bulls look for a close above the neck line while bears will obviously gun for the lower level. As is often the case, cable's fate is tied to that of the euro and any break out there will lead the way for the pound; 1.1510/1.16 lvls to watch for the euro.
I suppose it was too much to hope for a combination of events all working together, and going in my favour!
Anyway a new uptrend has been confirmed with a consolidation at the 50% retracement area. The channel has a 50 point range which would give a breakout range of 1.6710 for the up move and 1.6560 for a downward resistance target, that is if a new channel is formed.
I still fancy this move to go higher, especially now there is a solid trend in force. A move below1.6600 would trigger me to take profits on three of the positions mentioned and a small loss on the fourth and to start assessing whether a short position is warranted
any update to the above now NB? After the jobless data out of the USA - substantial change to currencies. mind u, also a substantial change to currencies when some European data out this morning.... Any thoughts?
what I meant was the 2 pieces of news in europe and usa today, has had quite an effect on currencies. the eu news strengthened dollar substantially, but usa news made it substantially weaker, intraday. So I was wondering how that has now effected the chart (TA) in your opinion.
Am sorry to be a little pedantic but i dont take in to account any fundamentals, i do not look at them. I am aware of certain big figures and i am therefor very cautious around these times.
To answer your question it went up when the figures came out and i made a load of points. I will put up a more serious post after ive come down from my high.
Channel idea didnt pan out but did give me a target which it smashed reaching 6745 before pulling back to 6710 as i write this. I think i deserve a break for now but will put up something serious later