Vegas
It is very common for the market to keep running for a few minutes after giving an overbought/oversold signal and I was often taking signals too early which later turned out to be good but I had been stopped out.
My entry rule now is that I have to see the stock and the market both trade above the high of the prior bar on the 1 min chart (vice versa for short of course) before entering. This helps keep me out of early signals. It is not foolproof of course but it has helped I think. In the case of the gild trade I think it traded up a couple of minutes before and moved down a cent or two. But for several minutes the market had been dropping and gild had not moved down so I was fairly confident it would move up so as soon as the market traded up I jumped in.
Shame I wasn't a bit smarter on the exit.
Regards
Gareth
It is very common for the market to keep running for a few minutes after giving an overbought/oversold signal and I was often taking signals too early which later turned out to be good but I had been stopped out.
My entry rule now is that I have to see the stock and the market both trade above the high of the prior bar on the 1 min chart (vice versa for short of course) before entering. This helps keep me out of early signals. It is not foolproof of course but it has helped I think. In the case of the gild trade I think it traded up a couple of minutes before and moved down a cent or two. But for several minutes the market had been dropping and gild had not moved down so I was fairly confident it would move up so as soon as the market traded up I jumped in.
Shame I wasn't a bit smarter on the exit.
Regards
Gareth
Hi Gareth,
Nice trade (yet again)
I didn't have the patience/discipline you have and jumped into gild at 16:35 pm (uk).
it worked out alright though.
I havn't tried your 1 minute rule yet, but a question, in most cases won't the macci's be out of "bounds" by the time the rule kicks in?
Nice trade (yet again)
I didn't have the patience/discipline
you have and jumped into gild at 16:35 pm (uk).it worked out alright though
. I havn't tried your 1 minute rule yet, but a question, in most cases won't the macci's be out of "bounds" by the time the rule kicks in?
Samtron
I tend to find $INDU breaks the previous bar and the MACCIs are still overbought/sold (perhaps the 1 minute just comes off at this point). Then if the stock takes a long time to break the previous bar then $INDU may have moved a bit and the MACCIs are out of bounds. This is happening less the last few days than before - perhaps my stock picks are better, perhaps its just coincidence. If the market moves and the stock doesn't move fairly soon perhaps it's not a good stock.
More annoying is when the stock starts to move but it takes a while for the market to break the prior bar - do you chase the stock price? I tend to try to watch a couple of candidate stocks when there is a signal and try to take the best one at the last moment. Sometimes one will have gone and I've missed it, sometimes one just doesn't show signs of life but the other starts to move at the right moment.
Regards
Gareth
I tend to find $INDU breaks the previous bar and the MACCIs are still overbought/sold (perhaps the 1 minute just comes off at this point). Then if the stock takes a long time to break the previous bar then $INDU may have moved a bit and the MACCIs are out of bounds. This is happening less the last few days than before - perhaps my stock picks are better, perhaps its just coincidence. If the market moves and the stock doesn't move fairly soon perhaps it's not a good stock.
More annoying is when the stock starts to move but it takes a while for the market to break the prior bar - do you chase the stock price? I tend to try to watch a couple of candidate stocks when there is a signal and try to take the best one at the last moment. Sometimes one will have gone and I've missed it, sometimes one just doesn't show signs of life but the other starts to move at the right moment.
Regards
Gareth
garethb said:
Thats what I said about Fridays long trade in GILD. In direct contrast yesterday as the market gave oversold signals and continued to move down BRCM moved down with it as did the couple of other stocks I was watching. I took the long trade in BRCM because it was the "strongest" stock but perhaps least weak would have been a better description. I had two bites at it losing $90 each time which is about the average value of a winnng trade for me at the moment. A lesson to take in and apply. I am even aware of the little voice in my head noticing that it was moving down at the time.
That my average winning trade is only $90 is another thing to ponder. I have certainly missed out on some bigger profits a number of times in the last few days by not taking what's on offer from the market. Printing out charts of several of my recent trades to analyse.
Gareth
11:59 OB signal
12:09 S 1000 gild @ 67.89
stopped 500 @ 67.95
stopped 300 68.00
cover 200 67.99 - INDU breaking upwards
P/L - $103
Due to finger trouble I only closed 100 in the last tranche and didn't notice imediately - so closed remainder now for 67.89 P/L only -$93. Not often errors work in your favour
12:09 S 1000 gild @ 67.89
stopped 500 @ 67.95
stopped 300 68.00
cover 200 67.99 - INDU breaking upwards
P/L - $103
Due to finger trouble I only closed 100 in the last tranche and didn't notice imediately - so closed remainder now for 67.89 P/L only -$93. Not often errors work in your favour
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12:32 S 900 Sndk @ 48.12
13:16 cover 400 @48.04 stock weak but mkt seemed to break upwards - compromise close 1 min position
13:53 cover 300 @48.00 again mkt strong looking but stock weak so scale out some more
14:35 cover 200 @47.80 - going out shortly so that will have to do
P/L +114
13:16 cover 400 @48.04 stock weak but mkt seemed to break upwards - compromise close 1 min position
13:53 cover 300 @48.00 again mkt strong looking but stock weak so scale out some more
14:35 cover 200 @47.80 - going out shortly so that will have to do
P/L +114
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garethb said:
Hi Garethb,
Just a recommendation: trading volume during NY’s lunch period usually drops which provide a higher risk due to lack of volatility, also w/USA’s Thanksgiving weekend, volume will be lower.
In any case, concentrating on NY Lunch period volume, I use a rule for entry to require a stock to have Volume ATR(20)/1Minute > 9,000. For example, SNDK’s Last volume hitting > 9K ATR(20) was at 12:28 (ET), thus doldrums, even though SNDK’s Total Volume as of 12:49 = 4.8 Min shs traded.
Nas
Hi Nas
Thanks for your input. Overall so far my strategy 3 trades have been profitable when opened over lunchtime but I do monitor the performance relative to morning/afternoon.
Vol today has so far been running around 10% over average for last 7 days. Although now dropping still running about average.
edit - should clarify I am using volume on SPY etf as proxy for the market as a whole
Regards,
Gareth
Thanks for your input. Overall so far my strategy 3 trades have been profitable when opened over lunchtime but I do monitor the performance relative to morning/afternoon.
Vol today has so far been running around 10% over average for last 7 days. Although now dropping still running about average.
edit - should clarify I am using volume on SPY etf as proxy for the market as a whole
Regards,
Gareth
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Trader333
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The problem with lunch time is that the market can easily be manipulated by those with the means to do so which is something that you dont find in either the morning or after lunch sessions for stocks with strong volume. In my view it is more risky to trade during lunch and TA is less likely to be profitable.
Paul
Paul
I am in complete agreement with peoples views on trading over lunch time in general. Particularly applicable to trend following and/or breakout based strategies. The reason I started my tests of Strategy 3 including lunch time was largely because of Grey1's stated opinion that strategy 3 is an oscillation/consolidation strategy and was appropriate for the midday period.
My results so far (admittedly over only 15 trading days) seem to confirm this.
Trades before 12:00 15 with 60% win rate proft $621 and profit factor 2.58
Trades between 12:00 and 14:00 16 with 50% win rate- profit $405 and profit factor of 2.37
Trades after 14:00 8 with a win rate of 50% - loss of $18 and profit factor of 0.92
Whilst this level of performance on this size sample does not prove that the strategy is profitable over lunchtime I think it indicates that it is sensible to continue to trade it over lunchtime at the moment. I continue to record trade times and will monitor the situation.
My observation so far is actually that Strategy 3 may perform at its worst as volume builds up after lunch and the start of afternoon action gets underway. I am currently doing an analysis of my trade exits on winners to see if there is a way to improve the average winning trade but after that I intend to have a careful look at late midday/early afternoon trades to see if there is something identifiable I should be avoiding.
Thanks to everyone for the input I am grateful for all comments which require me to re-examine my methods and results.
Regards,
Gareth
My results so far (admittedly over only 15 trading days) seem to confirm this.
Trades before 12:00 15 with 60% win rate proft $621 and profit factor 2.58
Trades between 12:00 and 14:00 16 with 50% win rate- profit $405 and profit factor of 2.37
Trades after 14:00 8 with a win rate of 50% - loss of $18 and profit factor of 0.92
Whilst this level of performance on this size sample does not prove that the strategy is profitable over lunchtime I think it indicates that it is sensible to continue to trade it over lunchtime at the moment. I continue to record trade times and will monitor the situation.
My observation so far is actually that Strategy 3 may perform at its worst as volume builds up after lunch and the start of afternoon action gets underway. I am currently doing an analysis of my trade exits on winners to see if there is a way to improve the average winning trade but after that I intend to have a careful look at late midday/early afternoon trades to see if there is something identifiable I should be avoiding.
Thanks to everyone for the input I am grateful for all comments which require me to re-examine my methods and results.
Regards,
Gareth
Progress review
First 5 days of live trading completed so time to review. Attached is log of the 15 days worth of trades. Those from 15th to 21st inclusive were for real prior to that was on paper.
Profit of $499 in the 5 days up from $364 over the previous 5 paper trading. I am pleased that my profit hasn't dissappeared under the pressure of live trading. My results have changed a bit in that my Win% is up to 64% compared to only 46% the previous week but my reward :risk is down to only 1.3 compared to 3.7 the previous week. Need to watch that I emulate this weeks win% with nearer to last weeks reward: risk rather than the other way round!
My profit per share traded is 4.5c down from 5c the previous 5 days though obviously it now has actual slippage included in the result.
I am incorporating into my rules an additional condition for stock selection. Avoid stocks which fall in the last few minutes with the market prior to an oversold signal (v.v. for shorts). Some stocks which have been showing strength can fall in the last selloff which generates the OS condition these are best avoided for subsequent longs
I have the following issues I am analysing/monitoring
Exits of profitable trades - is there a way to profit more from some of the winning trades. (I know - let the winners run whilst simultaneously not giving profits back to the market. clearly I must hold the ones with further to run and close the ones which will reverse). I do feel that I am sometimes slow to take profits when there is a sudden move in my favour. I tend to sit frozen wanting more rather than taking whats offered.
Late midday/ Early afternoon as discussed in previous post - how to identify and avoid low probability trades in the early afternoon.
If tomorrow was not a holiday I might be considering raising my risk amount for position sizing but I will leave this for now.
Gareth
First 5 days of live trading completed so time to review. Attached is log of the 15 days worth of trades. Those from 15th to 21st inclusive were for real prior to that was on paper.
Profit of $499 in the 5 days up from $364 over the previous 5 paper trading. I am pleased that my profit hasn't dissappeared under the pressure of live trading. My results have changed a bit in that my Win% is up to 64% compared to only 46% the previous week but my reward :risk is down to only 1.3 compared to 3.7 the previous week. Need to watch that I emulate this weeks win% with nearer to last weeks reward: risk rather than the other way round!
My profit per share traded is 4.5c down from 5c the previous 5 days though obviously it now has actual slippage included in the result.
I am incorporating into my rules an additional condition for stock selection. Avoid stocks which fall in the last few minutes with the market prior to an oversold signal (v.v. for shorts). Some stocks which have been showing strength can fall in the last selloff which generates the OS condition these are best avoided for subsequent longs
I have the following issues I am analysing/monitoring
Exits of profitable trades - is there a way to profit more from some of the winning trades. (I know - let the winners run whilst simultaneously not giving profits back to the market. clearly I must hold the ones with further to run and close the ones which will reverse). I do feel that I am sometimes slow to take profits when there is a sudden move in my favour. I tend to sit frozen wanting more rather than taking whats offered.
Late midday/ Early afternoon as discussed in previous post - how to identify and avoid low probability trades in the early afternoon.
If tomorrow was not a holiday I might be considering raising my risk amount for position sizing but I will leave this for now.
Gareth
9:42 S 500 gild @67.11
cover 200 @ 66.89 lower MPD
cover 300 66.53 EE -108/-109/-122
p/l +$208
Lively start to the holidays
I think that's me done 'till next week. Avoid any pre holiday euphoria losing me money. Happy thanksgiving everyone particularly NasTrader and any other Americans - go easy on the Turkey guys.
Gareth
cover 200 @ 66.89 lower MPD
cover 300 66.53 EE -108/-109/-122
p/l +$208
Lively start to the holidays
I think that's me done 'till next week. Avoid any pre holiday euphoria losing me money. Happy thanksgiving everyone particularly NasTrader and any other Americans - go easy on the Turkey guys.
Gareth
