FX Trade Setups, Entries, Management and Exit

I'm really not complaining about making a profit, but I am only realising between 30-50% of the MFE. Having a target seems like a smart idea. Preempting a reversal against me by coming out at key s/r levels is worth looking at.

I have an idea before I get in of where I'm likely to get in so I assume it makes sense to have an idea of an exit point too.
 
Purple Brain said:
............ so I assume it makes sense to have an idea of an exit point too..............
Click to expand...

essential task - you can't know whether the risk you're going to take is acceptable unless you know the reward you have in mind and whether that is likely or not.
 
Purple Brain said:
I'm really not complaining about making a profit, but I am only realising between 30-50% of the MFE. Having a target seems like a smart idea. Preempting a reversal against me by coming out at key s/r levels is worth looking at.

I have an idea before I get in of where I'm likely to get in so I assume it makes sense to have an idea of an exit point too.
Click to expand...

Trading on a purely discretionary basis can make it harder to determine optimumish profit target levels though when using MFE. Trailing stops can help perhaps you can look into that, depending on the trend efficiency of each pair.
:)
 
barjon said:
essential task - you can't know whether the risk you're going to take is acceptable unless you know the reward you have in mind and whether that is likely or not.
Click to expand...
This so completely ties in with the query I raised yesterday regarding the amount of risk per trade versus expectations of net reward for the day - in percentage terms.

It's only because my R:R is so badly skewed that I was minded to ask the question. I should be focusing on risk per trade versus reward per trade - not reward for the day.

If only take those trades which have at least a reasonable chance of a decent R:R that will by itself potentially increase my R:R. And possibly also my W:L too.
 
Purple Brain said:
This so completely ties in with the query I raised yesterday regarding the amount of risk per trade versus expectations of net reward for the day - in percentage terms.

It's only because my R:R is so badly skewed that I was minded to ask the question. I should be focusing on risk per trade versus reward per trade - not reward for the day.

If only take those trades which have at least a reasonable chance of a decent R:R that will by itself potentially increase my R:R. And possibly also my W:L too.
Click to expand...

Well, anyone can give themselves a potentially decent R:R by sticking in a target to suit, but is that target likely or just pie in the sky.

"Likely" is about a reasonable assumption of where price might get to. It might get there or it might not, nothing is certain and you can't control it. All you can do is assume that it will get there unless you see damn good reasons why not as it's on the journey.

At the other end, of course, you are in control of your risk.
 
usd/cad stop at yesterday's high, 10 pips above today's open and above weekly pivot point and century. Target is yesterday's low. Giving me a possible R:R of 19:24.
 
usd/cad stop down to 308. Today's Open and spread plus a couple of pips above the weekly pivot point which is still, just about, holding. I haven't had any lower lows since entering this trade, but I've not had any higher highs either. The latter would change things - hence moving the stop in close.
 
If I was biased long on usd/cad, I'd be 'seeing' it finding support on the century right now - but I don't have any trading plan basis for exiting though.
 
aud/chf - if it gets to daily R3 at 8530 where it stalled earlier today, I'll move stop in close and grab what I can.
 
Four trades today. No major deviations from plan as far as I can tell. Rather nonplussed on the short usd/cad when I saw it was finding support on the century. Knowing this – even posted to the effect I knew I was biased wrong – I chose to interpret it as resistance from the weekly pivot even though it was clear which level the real price action was against. Should have dumped it much earlier. Number of pips wouldn’t have been significantly better, but the principle would have been better served.

Key points from today’s trading:-

Develop discretionary exits around price action based on experiential evidence. On-going task I suspect.

As for the P&L. I’m still only trading a quarter normal size, risking 0.5% capital per trade. My net gain for the day was +0.7% of a risk unit which equates to an absolute gain of 0.35% of capital.

Have ordered Yacht Owners Monthly from my newsagent.
 
nzd/chf short 7448 stop 7465 (5 pips above daily S1 and most recent lower high). Target 7428 daily S2 and current daily low.
 
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