FX Trade Setups, Entries, Management and Exit

Hi, PB. I saw your thread on 3 Ducks. I mentioned,earlier, that I was shorting that one and that I had had some false starts. Did you check out Cornflower? Those averages, also, work well in conjunction with 3 Ducks as an extra confirmation on the 1 hour chart.

Not that I have any favourite systems---none of them work all the time! From 23rd, the Dax went sideways, giving good buy/sell signals several times. However, that is hindsight and anyone using 3 ducks would have lost money, I suspect.

We''ll just have to keep trying!
 
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If the Yen starts to strengthen again within the next hour or so, there are a number of useful short setups likely to present against most of the other majors. I appreciate that is stating the superficially obvious, but of the three currencies making most of the action at the moment (sterling and the aussie being the other two) Yen seems to be the bellwether.
 
Bellwether not what I meant as it doesn't lead the others. I meant it has provided the most solid underlying strength of recent days, but provided the cleanest and quickest counter moves from which one could have entered with a better than evens chance of taking money to the downside. Which makes me wonder why I haven't and if I'm always going to a real retrospective guru.
 
gbp/jpy short rationale: Gap down on open, regressed as probably could be expected to pre-close level at around 05:00 BST – and closed the gap. Has since retraced almost the entire up move. We’ve seen a lower high, lower low and a new lower high on the retrace. It was just above the century when I entered which could offer significant support all by itself, but there were no other technical s/r points at that level – as far as I can see and the daily S1 at 158.15 appears to be providing resistance. Although the last few candles are closing down their body is toward the top of the action which could be construed as bullish, but each are testing new lows. The momentum shows sterling falling more significantly than the Yen is rising but it’s the delta that counts in my current view on things. Not a perfect setup but sufficient to warrant a quarter size short.
 
usd/jpy limit short at 97.60 stop 97.90. There's absolutely no reason to suspect a sudden down move, but if there is, I want to be in at that level.
 
gbp/jpy short - uninspiring action. More a case of sterling strengthening than Yen weakening. Given the spindly nature of the candles - small body finishing midway on long wicks - it's more a case of indecision than outright bullish. So I'll stand my ground for now.
 
nzd/jpy looking good for a potential short, but I'm already short one (quarter) position and another one lined up so will let it pass. Pity, as I think they're all about to blow.
 
Was concerned that by chasing the price down too closely with the stop I wasn't giving it sufficient space to move. Just got a technical exit on the current (13:00 BST) bar's open at 157.57, so I gave up 8 pips in my haste - which pales into insignificance against the 25 I didn't make on the MFE. Still, it was a win. And while one win does not a trader make, it's progress. Or luck. Or a bit of both.
 
Only thing on the table from a momentum perspective is a short cable, but the underlying is up. Lesson learned.
 
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