FX Trade Setups, Entries, Management and Exit

Have both usd and cad data releases coming up at 13:30 BST. OANDA spread plays are likely to wipe out my usd/cad position if I do nothing. I'm certainly not going to move my stop out of the way. I can kill the trade now for -8 pips or let OANDA do it for -11 in 20 minutes (if it doesn't die before of course).

I don't have technical basis for doing anything, so that's precisely what I'll do - nothing.
 
Plan B. OANDA could widen their spreads on this pair to as much as 15 pips. If by 13:27 (when they are likely to start spread games) I'm within 15 pips on my stop, I'll close the trade as I'll likely get hammered anyway. If I'm more than 15 pips from my stop, I'll sit tight.
 
Weekly S1 and Daily S3 apparently providing support. Distinctly disinclined to short, but will if S3 broken.
 
1st short usd/cad of the day was a 50% of original risk loss - which I was almost pleased about as had I not heeded at least some advice - it would have been one of my normal full risk losses. It wasn't a pristine perfect setup, but good enough - price apparently turning within 5 pips of the 49 average. I could debate it was from a higher high - the prior one possibly being at 08:15, but I'm not that fussed about a potentially fudged entry as the exit was better than my normal losing trade exits.

I didn't feel the 2nd short usd/cad was a revenge trade, but why I missed, yet again, it was 'turning down' from a higher high and loaded up full size before setting my limit stop and heading out for the afternoon suggests it probably was. I get so bogged down in the detail I miss the big picture - the price was higher than the previous high AND it had put in a higher low - and I still sold, full size, into it.

Muppet.
 
Need to look at each bar and what it's telling me as I'm probably not extracting enough information as I could be from what the price development is telling me.

Also need to review my bias on each and every bar. When in a trade I am remarkably resistant to any indication that my original analysis was incorrect.

I also need to stay alert. A lot of what I already know I should be doing - such as only buying from a higher low; selling from a lower high - I'm not doing. I almost need a checklist for getting into a trade. And staying in one - for each and every bar.
 
Looking at aud/usd for a potential short. It's tested daily S1 and come back off it, it's made a lower high (at 04:15 BST). BUT it's also made a higher low (05:15). For it to offer a setup off the 49 average it'll have to come up to a level higher than the prior high, unless it does nothing for a couple of hours and the 49 to come down to the price.
 
aud/usd - a strong finish on the last bar - a fraction higher than the prior higher high. It may be reversing long or it may be ranging. Whatever it's doing - it's not an imminent short for me.
 
I was just about to post a similar analysis on eur/aud as I have above on aud/usd (mirror image of) when I realised something perhaps more important - I tend to look for trades with a view to being forgiving if they're not pristine setups or entry configurations on the basis if I'm not in a trade, I can't make any money.

What I think I probably should be doing is absolutely insisting my setups and entries are perfect on the basis that it's better to be out of the market for an entire day, week or whatever if standing aside means you end that period with more money than you would have had, had you traded.

Basically, I thought I couldn't afford to cherry pick - I now think I can't afford to anything but cherry pick.

I'm sure it's a horses for courses thing and some traders hit everything going and make a decent profit out of the dust up that ensues. I've got less mental stamina than they do and probably will do better to concentrate on selecting and running only the highest quality (for me) trades I can find - however infrequent thy may be.
 
usd/jpy as a potential long, but it's broken below yesterday's high. Unsure. On watch-list, see how it develops.
 
I wonder if everyone has lapses of faith with their system and methods now and again. I know it's summer chop and the financial markets generally are giving conflicting signs, but even so, it's tough. For me at any rate.
 
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