FX Trade Setups, Entries, Management and Exit

usd/chf closed at 9261 for +3 on original risk of 40. Dragonfly candle (?) certainly looked like lack of interest to go lower having not gone as low as prior bar and very small body apparently using the daily pivot point as support rather than resistance. MAE 4. MFE 11.
 
eur/usd ideally looking for it to secure above the daily R1 at 3369 which it just touched on the 10:00 euro data spike bar. If this bar closes down it will possibly give me a technical exit on the CCI/TDI levels.
 
A word on my lack of focus. The entire time I have had these trades on I haven't even looked at any other pairs for potential setup development.
 
eur/usd technical exit at 3361. +8 on original risk of 40. MAE 5. MFE 16. A lot of effort for a little reward, but better than any loss.
 
Shakone said:
Do you want comment?
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Purple Brain said:
Yes of course. That's the primary purpose of exposing the soft underbelly of my stupidity on this thread so that those who do know how to trade can perhaps share the occasional nugget with me in return for the mirth I provide by trading like a Yeti retard.

Not that you personally haven't already done more than your fair share to assist my efforts Shakone.
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Did shakone ever get back to you?
 
scholfield said:
Did shakone ever get back to you?
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Shakone drew my atention, by his post, to the fact thaT Purple Brain might not welcome comments on what is his thread. I have confined myself to "read only" mode since then but I am, very much, following the comments on EuroJapan., a pair that interests me.
 
Splitlink said:
Shakone drew my atention, by his post, to the fact thaT Purple Brain might not welcome comments on what is his thread. I have confined myself to "read only" mode since then but I am, very much, following the comments on EuroJapan., a pair that interests me.
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Please, splitlink - everyone and anyone should feel free to comment freely on this thread. I'd imagine the majority of posts would be roughly on topic, but given the nature of such things the occasional off-topic ramble can be unexpectedly useful as well as fun.

No, note to all members - chunter away at will. I have much to learn and you lot are my teachers.
 
Splitlink said:
I am, very much, following the comments on EuroJapan., a pair that interests me.
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I hope you found more resolve than did I to take a long position this morning. I convinced myself quite completely that it was a folly to do so based on what I saw as lower highs and lower lows.

As a point of interest splitlink, I was 'seeing' a high at 04:00 and a low at 05:45. So the entry setup point for me at 07:30 from a most recent low of 07:00 which was lower than the 05:45 one put a long trade out of the question.

However, one could take a view that the 04:00 high was a genuine high and my assessment of the 05:45 bar as being a low was incorrect; the only real low being the 07:00 which was higher than the prior 'proper' low at 02:00.

I guess it all depends on how you define high and low. Whenever I veer toward micro-analysis of such things, I stand back later, as in this case, and think I should have gone for the bigger picture. And whenever I go for the big picture, I find myself tripped up by not noticing mini-highs and mini-lows in between the bigger ones.

Is there any definitive guide to what constitutes a high or a low in any given timeframe or is it really all as subjective as I am beginning to believe?
 
Purple Brain said:
..............Is there any definitive guide to what constitutes a high or a low in any given timeframe or is it really all as subjective as I am beginning to believe?.........
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Keep in mind that the bars are just representing arbitrary slices of time in a continuous market so they are nothing definitive. You probably get a better feel for momentum and strength in watching how they form rather than the final result - even better, have a look at tick charts (x number of transactions per bar)
 
Purple Brain said:
I hope you found more resolve than did I to take a long position this morning. I convinced myself quite completely that it was a folly to do so based on what I saw as lower highs and lower lows.

As a point of interest splitlink, I was 'seeing' a high at 04:00 and a low at 05:45. So the entry setup point for me at 07:30 from a most recent low of 07:00 which was lower than the 05:45 one put a long trade out of the question.

However, one could take a view that the 04:00 high was a genuine high and my assessment of the 05:45 bar as being a low was incorrect; the only real low being the 07:00 which was higher than the prior 'proper' low at 02:00.

I guess it all depends on how you define high and low. Whenever I veer toward micro-analysis of such things, I stand back later, as in this case, and think I should have gone for the bigger picture. And whenever I go for the big picture, I find myself tripped up by not noticing mini-highs and mini-lows in between the bigger ones.

Is there any definitive guide to what constitutes a high or a low in any given timeframe or is it really all as subjective as I am beginning to believe?
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I haven't read all your post, but I thought I'd give you quick answer so that you rest easy in the knowledge that you are not the only one!

I shorted and lost full risk of 10 points. The"hard" or safety type that you put on in case of computer trouble but will not be executed because you will have got out manually, well beforehand.

Didn't it go up fast ! ? :(
 
eur/jpy - seems to have found support on the monthly high and the daily R1 and yesterday's high all within 5 pips of each other. However, the half-century at 132.50 appears to sandwiching the price by providing resistance.

A move down to around 132.34 followed by an up bar would provide a potential long setup for me. However, it will also indicate the relatively obvious support has broken which would not be such a great place to consider taking a long position.
 
barjon said:
Keep in mind that the bars are just representing arbitrary slices of time in a continuous market so they are nothing definitive. You probably get a better feel for momentum and strength in watching how they form rather than the final result - even better, have a look at tick charts (x number of transactions per bar)
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You have made an excellent point about the choice of timeframe - also made by another member - with regard to technical analysis. A double-top in a lower timeframe is going to be just a single bar in a longer one. X touches to a s/r level in one timeframe will be just one in another.

I am now concerned in my reliance and trust in the technical basis for analysing FX movement as it is patently subjective and based on the arbitrary selection of a trading timeframe. Short of giving in to random chance in selecting which pair and which direction to enter and when to exit, I am confused as to what I should then be doing.

If I understand tick charts correctly you get a tick for every transaction. So a lot of ticks per period of time and you take a view there is more interest than if there were fewer ticks, but compared with what? And unless it has an element of volume as well, I don't understand how this can help. 1,000,000 transactions in a 15 minute period is more telling than just 10,000. But unless the size of each transaction is, or can be, factored into the equation I don't know how I could use that data.

Confusion generally precedes clarity so please press on with your comments as something's got to stick eventually.

Thanks for your comments and suggestions, much appreciated.
 
Purple Brain said:
eur/jpy - seems to have found support on the monthly high and the daily R1 and yesterday's high all within 5 pips of each other. However, the half-century at 132.50 appears to sandwiching the price by providing resistance.

A move down to around 132.34 followed by an up bar would provide a potential long setup for me. However, it will also indicate the relatively obvious support has broken which would not be such a great place to consider taking a long position.
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Which is exactly what happened. It came down to 132.34 and then moved up offering me a long entry setup from a higher low. Perfect. Except the prior support had broken down which suggested a long position wasn't going to be too smart. Time will tell of course whether I'm saint or sinner on this one, but yesterday I wouldn't have given any thought to the prior price action around that support level and I would have just piled in long after getting my setup and signals.

Looking at each bar in detail pays dividends - regardless of how this one pair pans out from here on.
 
eur/gbp - right now on 49 average which coincides with the weekly pivot and yesterday's high. But I just don't like the look of it. It's been moribund for a couple of days and got blipped up by the GBP data earlier. It's come back to within almost 5 pips of where it took off. No confidence it will rebound, or if it does, strongly enough to warrant offering any risk to it.
 
eur/usd coming down to 49 average which coincides with half-century and daily pivot. But nowhere sensible to place a stop other than the daily pivot which, even with a 10 pip fuzz factor makes it way too close for comfort.

If a long setup does exist at the close of this current bar and I get entry signals I'll go in quarter size with stop 10 pips below pivot at 3338.
 
eur/usd got the setup and the signals but the last bar had all the action in the lower half. Off watch-list.
 
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