FX Trade Setups, Entries, Management and Exit

usd/jpy on the 49 average. Looks though it may power on up and through it, but it's on the watch-list. Again. The 13:30 spike high doesn't count so if it turns around below the prior high of 99.626 on the 09:00 BST bar, it'll be set for a short. Stop will be placed 99.79 which is yesterday's low, above the spike high at 13:30, and above the daily S1.
 
No major news scheduled before 19:00 BST so OANDA shouldn't need to mess with the 1.3 pip spread.
 
The rebound level - if it is to be one - coincides with the half-century but nothing else. Not that promising, but looking at the relative currency strengths it's still supportive of a short.
 
I just had a look at the source of Adaptive Moving Average I mentioned earlier (AMA) and it's a MetaQuotes indicator from 2004. I modified it by adding two buffers to handle the significant moves - my definition of significant of course - and to print the blue and red blobs for what I consider genuine momentum.

Have attached the source if anyone is interested or if you want to stick it on your chart and understand how I manage to delude myself so comprehensively. It has a modification date of today's date as I cleared out some commented out code that I no longer use, but left in the source. There's a pattern here, isn't there.
 

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usd/jpy having it's 3rd attempt of the day at the daily S2 at 99.28. The current bar looks like it might do it. But if I end up with a long lower wick, I'm out.
 
Even if usd/jpy holds in there and breaks the daily S2 this time, it's got a stack of other s/r levels all the way down to 99.10. Then, apart from the century level itself, it's clear air down to daily S3 at 98.77.
 
usd/jpy - any candle with a long lower wick at its close through these s/r levels and I'm out.
 
This is what I'm seeing.
 

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Reason for close is jpy weakening on my rankings, it's up against the weekly pivot point and I've got those two normally very strong s/r levels between it and the century level. These are probably just excuses for not staying in when I know I really should have.

usd/jpy out for +22 for risk of 34. MAE 3. MFE 28.
 
I've taken two trades today, both on usd/jpy. I've netted 24 pips in total (2 on a 36 risk and 22 on a 34 risk) so my R:R for today has been 1:0.7 – I’ve made 70% profit on the amount risked. While I am grateful for winning rather than losing, there has been a daily range on this pair of 98 and even if I limited myself to trading after the London open, there were still 71 pips to play for – if you hit the top and bottom – which of course, we don’t, that often – if ever.

So while thanking the gods for smiling on me for a small win – I can’t help wondering if a deal with the devil would get me a bigger slice of what’s on offer each day. There has to be – by definition – a high and a low each day. A sell at the high and a buy at the low – set your trades at the beginning of the day and head off down the beach. You wouldn’t need to know nor care which triggered first.

But somewhere between that happy state and where I am today there has to be a way to slice a little more off of what’s on offer. What I’m currently doing is working, but only just barely.

I am increasingly becoming aware the vast gulf between what I as a retail trader just taking directional plays does – and what the pros do. I just wonder if the they have similar thoughts to mine that they could be taking a whole lot more off the table than they currently do. It would be a comfort to think so.



edit:
My R:R above is clearly incorrect. 2 trades = 2 lots of risk. My R:R was 1:0.35.
 
Last edited:
gbp/usd setting up for a short. Entry level expected to be just shy of the century at 5800. Stop will be placed at 5820 which is above today's open and daily pivot point .
 
usd/chf setting up for a long. Entry level expected above 9318 and stop will be placed at 9290, 10 pips below century and below weekly low, weekly S1, today's open and daily pivot point.
 
usd/jpy setting up for a long. Entry expected around 99.64. Stop will be placed at 99.40. 10 pips below half century and below today's open and daily pivot point.
 
gbp/usd has closed above the 49 average on the previous bar, but for a few pips and what looks like resistance at the 5800 level, I'll take it if offered.
 
Swiss producer and import data on the next bar. Not normally major news, but the usd/chf doesn't look like it's ready to turn yet anyway - if at all.
 
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