barjon
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And the White Knight Bracke came riding over the hill to rescue the Thread in Distress.
Clean forgot, sorry. Us elderley gentlemen have enough trouble knowing which year we're in, let alone being expected to get the month right. Nice to see you back.
Regards and good trading.
jon
Clean forgot, sorry. Us elderley gentlemen have enough trouble knowing which year we're in, let alone being expected to get the month right. Nice to see you back.
Regards and good trading.
jon
yourf16
Been reading your views on FTSE100 with interest. November you seemed to be negative on FTSE100, now you appear to be +. Why the change in views? I like your + stance on FTSE as I am long on it, but nearly got blown out in the last 2 days of November.
gullible
Been reading your views on FTSE100 with interest. November you seemed to be negative on FTSE100, now you appear to be +. Why the change in views? I like your + stance on FTSE as I am long on it, but nearly got blown out in the last 2 days of November.
gullible
going short hasnt been profitable both with ftse and dow 🙁 dow i was short at 10550, ftse at 4720. dow hit its 20 day moving average. ftse broken the 4730 support. with dow i lost 30 points, ftse i gained 3 points as i got out on wednesday morning when i realised the market is holding this uptrend. that proved to be a really good decision.
so beginning to think maybe ftse is targeting 5000 and if i am long, could see better days ahead. like dow, ftse has been rising fast and falling slow which seems bullish and a good reason to have long positions. dont like long positions for the financing cost. one has to know exactly when to get in. could be totally wrong and might lose again. never know. maybe i should become a day trader but i have other things to do so its not yet possible.
thanks to trade2win ! i'm learning a lot of technical analysis. still have a long way to go. 😉
The markets are going up short term because that is the trend; there is still a lot of momentum and the buyers do not wish to miss the train. However, when the train hits the buffers we will find that most holders will dump those shares very quickly.
Stocks are overvalued, people are losing jobs and interest rates are rising but we are NOT in a recession.
Stocks are overvalued, people are losing jobs and interest rates are rising but we are NOT in a recession.
yourf16 said:
yourf16
Probably most traders in their early days will have had similar thoughts to your own. ie its got to go up or its got to go down. Then we learn that the market does what it does and it often appears illogical ....thats the market.
You may be correct in your conviction but be very careful about trading on it.
There are lots of trading one liners but I think the most important of all is:
Trade what you see not what you think.
Regards
bracke
barjon
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Last weekend I said that ftse looked on the cusp for a significant break. It looked on Monday that it was going to be north but the candle finished up as a shooting star shape which should have warned of Tuesday's fall (all easy in hindsight 🙂 ). That didn't follow through and here we are back at around last weeks level and still undecided?
On the swing chart I'm still favouring longs and the next buy signal will come with a close @4760+, although the false signals (circled) maybe highlight the current indecision. A break below 4696 will maybe open the door of the bear's cage a bit.
good trading all
jon
On the swing chart I'm still favouring longs and the next buy signal will come with a close @4760+, although the false signals (circled) maybe highlight the current indecision. A break below 4696 will maybe open the door of the bear's cage a bit.
good trading all
jon
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peterpr
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It's 'stay out for a day or two'until the ambiguity resolves itself for me.
We've now had 5 full weeks hovering above and below that 4730 ish resist/sup line. The intial break looked convincing but turned out not to be, which argues for a sharp move down if it doesn't hold. Nonetheless we've since had 8 of 10 daily closes above it. It also meets the rising support line from August on Monday and it's not difficult to view the past few weeks as something of a bull flag. Kagi isn't much help either with 4 contrary signals since 19th November - the latest is a 'buy'. None so far would have produced a worthwhile trade.
Lots of other mixed/ambiguous signals too.
My gut says we'll see the customary seasonal rally over the next couple of weeks, possibly after further serious testing of that support - but I won't be trading it until it happens because it could just as easily break south fast .
We've now had 5 full weeks hovering above and below that 4730 ish resist/sup line. The intial break looked convincing but turned out not to be, which argues for a sharp move down if it doesn't hold. Nonetheless we've since had 8 of 10 daily closes above it. It also meets the rising support line from August on Monday and it's not difficult to view the past few weeks as something of a bull flag. Kagi isn't much help either with 4 contrary signals since 19th November - the latest is a 'buy'. None so far would have produced a worthwhile trade.
Lots of other mixed/ambiguous signals too.
My gut says we'll see the customary seasonal rally over the next couple of weeks, possibly after further serious testing of that support - but I won't be trading it until it happens because it could just as easily break south fast .
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Windlesham1
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Cable is now the big worry-if the US doesn't mind a lower dollar at say 2.10 then our puny exports to the states will be too expensive. However the job numbers on Friday kicked the ftse in the 'nads for a while as the SPX rocketed towards 1200-seems the US is on a roll,but are we still clinging on to the coat tails?
peterpr
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Yet another day flirting with that 4730ish resistance/support line. Third close below (of 9) with futures closing above. The rising support line from August tested for the first time and threatening to test the 40 dma which is flattening; RSI in neutral territory but turning down; discernible down-channel forming - weakening signals perhaps?
A break above 4800ish would need a determined effort by the bulls. A drop to 4650 (new down channel support) wouldn't require much effort from either camp with 4600 being the most obvious serious near term support and after that???
This is getting interesting. Maybe we won't have a serious Santa Clause rally this year after all.
I can feel another speculative short creeping up on me - which probably means its about time to go long for Xmas!
A break above 4800ish would need a determined effort by the bulls. A drop to 4650 (new down channel support) wouldn't require much effort from either camp with 4600 being the most obvious serious near term support and after that???
This is getting interesting. Maybe we won't have a serious Santa Clause rally this year after all.
I can feel another speculative short creeping up on me - which probably means its about time to go long for Xmas!
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FetteredChinos
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bracke said:
ive got a pair of those.
good to see life back in the old FTSE.
think i may make a return to it in the new year.. 🙂 had enough of the late-ish nights fighting with the US markets...
