shortorlong
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I am following your thread with interest.
Two weeks of losses means you must modify your strategy. Analyse each trade ( I am sure your have) and consider what you can do differently next week.
I have been limiting my ftse trades to just after 8am, when the spread goes to one point on capital spreads, just after1:30 when news from the US might move the market, and to just after 2:30 when the US markets open.
I was sure the market would rise this morning, so I placed a buy order at 6672, then the market moved through it to 6688 .. but I thought it would go up further ( daft in retrospect) so I set a stop at break even and of course it got hit.
(note: yesterday I was long from 1:30 but only took 10 points .. so I was kicking myself for not holding on - hence my futile trade above - maybe the rule should be only hold when the US is driving)
Needless to say the market hit my stop and started up again . so I placed an order at 6680 with a stop at 6676 (4 points
) .. and yes it got hit meaning I am now minus four points and look at the ftse now edit: at time of writing I could have had 5 points wow!
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Hoggums
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I disagree with this point on a strategy which trades daily. I assume you did some backtesting before you went with the strategy?
Assuming you did - backtest the last 2 weeks on paper - did you make a profit? If not then your execution of the strategy is just fine - and you should win long term provided your backtesting was valid
However if your backtest showed you should have made a profit in the last 2 weeks then there is either a problem with your backtest - or your execution. I'll leave you to sort out which.
shortorlong
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I have not tried IG index so can't offer comparison .. but I think capital spread's platform is pretty good .. I have experience of cityindex and cmc for comparison.
I like the way you can set stop loss price, target price and limit order price in the one ticket.
Although I think I need to make more use of the target price order function especially on trades before US news, and options expiry (a new entry in my trader's calendar)
I watched the indices shoot up yesterday (10:11 and 1:30).. and cursed myself for not being brave enough to set an order just above the price in order to catch any fast moves .. this is the basis of my trading strategy .. (I don't know which way the market will go, but when it moves fast I want to have an order in place to catch it .. this means I set an order and amend it half a dozen times before the market moves faster than I can amend my order)
edit: this strategy cost me another four points yesterday as my order was too close to the market and got hit before my amended order was confirmed ..but I got off lightly I think (thanks to a tight stop) as I was trying to trade the pullback on one of the quick moves up .. I was all emotional about missing the fast move up
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migrations
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Overcoming fear of trading
Hi again. Well, I waffled on on May 25th and didn't get so much response, but that's okay. I have soldiered on with the ftse and the dow.
Every day
when I do something on the dow
and lose I vow
never again
to touch the dow
(I'm a poet in my spare time...not that I have any as so much of my time is spent losing money)
One of the problems is the spread. On nearly all SB companies it's 4 for the dow. It's just too much to pay. Just think about it. It means you have to go SIX points before you're 1 measly point in profit. And often when all your indicators are yelling at you 'SELL' 'BUY' it's torture watching Capital Spreads squeeze you a profit of a quid. Then do you take the blighter? It sits there (of course, it knows you're waiting for it to go up to 2) and when you finally pluck up to press that button. Damn, it's back to zero..... Oh, god, minus one. No! I refuse point blank to accept a loss, even of 1. Because I hate Capital Spreads I know they're fleecing me. Oh hell, now it's minus THREE......
The same old story. And I know it's mostly the human being in me that caused Capital Spreads to be another £500 richer from me in the past month. Of course it would have helped not to have let a losing trade run to a 28 point loss...at £13 a point.... I keep telling myself it's money well spent, I'll get it back soon and I'll be more experienced. Well, how experienced does one have to get at losing money?
Today I felt triumphant in that I waited for a classic W formation and went long at the bottom of the 2nd fall. And it worked! But then later - 2 losers when I really thought I had it nailed.
Just look at the dow today, a 100 point rise in less than an hour. And it would have been so easy, just to have traced the market down - it would have been worth a few false starts to take 80 or so points...but what happened, why wasn't I there?! Human nature, people make so much money out of that commodity.
I think a big problem is having the guts to press that buy or sell button. The individual small hesitations which result in slow death as the market rises or falls away from you... Damn! Look what I could have earned! It was staring me in the face, why didn't I just pull the trigger? That is the question. What stops people pulling the trigger? Fear. And what's at the bottom of fear?
How to overcome it. Comments on this point would be great.
There are days when I feel it's the wrong thing to be doing. But others when I spend hours back testing strategies and.... well, they all work, some more, some less, but they work.
Sticking to one of them and getting to be patient over the longer term is the hard one.
Having the guts to allow the market enough room to manoevre without stopping you out, that's tough. A few negative hits, or near misses and the temptation is too great to change everything.
It's got to work. Hasn't it? How to stop believing they're out to get you or your meek little stop-loss which has so carefully tiptoed up just behind the market price, hoping not to be seen.
What has life sunk to?
Good luck everyone.
Hi again. Well, I waffled on on May 25th and didn't get so much response, but that's okay. I have soldiered on with the ftse and the dow.
Every day
when I do something on the dow
and lose I vow
never again
to touch the dow
(I'm a poet in my spare time...not that I have any as so much of my time is spent losing money)
One of the problems is the spread. On nearly all SB companies it's 4 for the dow. It's just too much to pay. Just think about it. It means you have to go SIX points before you're 1 measly point in profit. And often when all your indicators are yelling at you 'SELL' 'BUY' it's torture watching Capital Spreads squeeze you a profit of a quid. Then do you take the blighter? It sits there (of course, it knows you're waiting for it to go up to 2) and when you finally pluck up to press that button. Damn, it's back to zero..... Oh, god, minus one. No! I refuse point blank to accept a loss, even of 1. Because I hate Capital Spreads I know they're fleecing me. Oh hell, now it's minus THREE......
The same old story. And I know it's mostly the human being in me that caused Capital Spreads to be another £500 richer from me in the past month. Of course it would have helped not to have let a losing trade run to a 28 point loss...at £13 a point.... I keep telling myself it's money well spent, I'll get it back soon and I'll be more experienced. Well, how experienced does one have to get at losing money?
Today I felt triumphant in that I waited for a classic W formation and went long at the bottom of the 2nd fall. And it worked! But then later - 2 losers when I really thought I had it nailed.
Just look at the dow today, a 100 point rise in less than an hour. And it would have been so easy, just to have traced the market down - it would have been worth a few false starts to take 80 or so points...but what happened, why wasn't I there?! Human nature, people make so much money out of that commodity.
I think a big problem is having the guts to press that buy or sell button. The individual small hesitations which result in slow death as the market rises or falls away from you... Damn! Look what I could have earned! It was staring me in the face, why didn't I just pull the trigger? That is the question. What stops people pulling the trigger? Fear. And what's at the bottom of fear?
How to overcome it. Comments on this point would be great.
There are days when I feel it's the wrong thing to be doing. But others when I spend hours back testing strategies and.... well, they all work, some more, some less, but they work.
Sticking to one of them and getting to be patient over the longer term is the hard one.
Having the guts to allow the market enough room to manoevre without stopping you out, that's tough. A few negative hits, or near misses and the temptation is too great to change everything.
It's got to work. Hasn't it? How to stop believing they're out to get you or your meek little stop-loss which has so carefully tiptoed up just behind the market price, hoping not to be seen.
What has life sunk to?
Good luck everyone.
shortorlong
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Migrations
You describe a very familiar story of profits not taken and holding on to losing trades. Having lost thousands in the last four weeks I am just about to pack it in for the second time.
I don't trade the Dow because of the spread but the FTSE (or the DAX) is just as bad if you choose the wrong direction even with a smaller spread.
Stops are a nightmare .. I spent a while placing trades with stops getting stopped out time after time then chasing the loss.. When I didn't place stops, sometimes the market came my way after a little while but then "when to take profits" came into play. So ... after a couple of trades like that the temptation is to hang on to a losing trade in the hope it will come round..those were the big losers for me .. and of course just when I bailed out the market would dance on my grave by at last changing direction.
I guess I should look into this technical analysis business .. I have difficulty believing that the past can inform the future so have resisted so far .. I think it might work for a true futures instrument as many technical analysts a playing the same game but for the FTSE cash?
good luck all
any hints to what I should be reading to help with this black art will be appreciated ....
wonder how djsole fared this week ..
You describe a very familiar story of profits not taken and holding on to losing trades. Having lost thousands in the last four weeks I am just about to pack it in for the second time.
I don't trade the Dow because of the spread but the FTSE (or the DAX) is just as bad if you choose the wrong direction even with a smaller spread.
Stops are a nightmare .. I spent a while placing trades with stops getting stopped out time after time then chasing the loss.. When I didn't place stops, sometimes the market came my way after a little while but then "when to take profits" came into play. So ... after a couple of trades like that the temptation is to hang on to a losing trade in the hope it will come round..those were the big losers for me .. and of course just when I bailed out the market would dance on my grave by at last changing direction.
I guess I should look into this technical analysis business .. I have difficulty believing that the past can inform the future so have resisted so far .. I think it might work for a true futures instrument as many technical analysts a playing the same game but for the FTSE cash?
good luck all
any hints to what I should be reading to help with this black art will be appreciated ....
wonder how djsole fared this week ..
Hoggums
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shortorlong - sorry to hear about your losses.Hopefully you'll come away more the wiser.
For a quick intro to TA have a look at http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school
There's enough info here for you to get the basics and to construct indicators in excel spreadsheets.
I will warn you though - they are only tools and won't predict the market for you, but they can give you an indication of what might happen.
Good luck.
brutusdog
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just saw this thread and though i would add my opinion,
1. don't buy into some secret system or holy grail indicator spend the time and money learning. great recourses here.
2.find or develop a system or technique that you understand and are confident in.
3.build confidence and ability through paper or demo trading.
4.learn money management, never take trades where risk to reward in not better than 2:1.
5.read lurkerlurkers journal, excellent starting point for traders shows the path of development and the emotions of trading.
6. learn about yourself, why you are doing this and the aspects of your personality that are beneficial or detrimental towards trading.
good luck, look forward to checking this thread and seeing whats happening.
cheers bd.
shortorlong
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Thanks for taking the time.
I guess they don't work either? .. what about Oscar the OMNI guy? he gives the impression that his system works .. I have not tried trading his calls as I don't have direct access
Where are these systems? there must be a million of them but I have not found any that are in the public domain . well none that I understand at any rate.
cheers,
shortorlong
brutusdog
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check out www.forexfactory.com there are more systems and stuff than you can ever need...just make sure you understand them and test them first. also regardless of this you will need an understanding of t.a so check out the stuff on t2w theres loads. also the ibex system thread here started by nkruger is pretty good and whats explained there will work on all markets and in different time frames.
the best ideas are always the simple ones
you should have charting via the spread bet provider your using
all the best bd.
nkruger
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Thanks for that BD - it has worked out well, hasn't it. It seems to be ok on Cable (but only a cursory glance, you understand)
shortorlong
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sorry to hear about that Jonny.
Despite saying I was going to take a break I am still in, like the moth to the flame. I still like your idea, but I guess impatience got to you.
Today I went short on the first spike up, took 11 points on the way down .. but then I went long and watched like an idiot as it carried on down .. Then I committed the cardinal sin of averaging my position at something like 20-30 points lower .. well today it worked and I was able to get out with only one point lost at 1:30 .. of course the market rallied after that .. I could've made decent money . but no I was just glad to have turned around a 40 point loss ..
Is it my imagination or can one get away with this kind of thing on the FTSE but not on the DAX or the DOW.
I know that it is that kind of thinking that can accrue big losses .. it's like playing Russian roulette with my account ..
:idea: I wonder how often there is a reversal in around 0830 - see charts (if you can be bothered this evening)
best wishes,
shortorlong
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Hoggums
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Djsole,
Welcome to the club that all of us have been in, in one form another. The biggest and best lesson I ever learned was not to try to get rich quick, just think about how much interest you'd get in a bank account or a FTSE tracker and aim to get at least that. No more - then you haven't lost out if you'd have put your money in the building society.
Once you learn patience (and yes it is frustrating at first seeing the pennies come in - rather than the pounds) a day like today is of no consequence - because they do crop up suprisingly often - You'll find it eaiser to stick to your rules and fight another day.
I strongly suggest you try again - but stick to min bet sizes. Turning £1000 into say £1250 over a year may not sound impressive - £250 profit for a lot of work
- but that's far more tha 85% of SBetters will make this year regardless of the size of their accounts.Those who have seen me around these boards will know that I went into my second attempt at trading the Footsie last summer. I started well and mixed with others in the chatroom. Round about October I decided, after a disastrous string of losees, to go back to my normal trading methods, swearing not to waste time on Footsie again.
The trouble with long term trading is that it leaves time for worlking out new methods on Footsie, a kind of dog chasing its own tail , so this thread triggered my curiosity about my failures.
June started me off on my third tour.
Short stops are the answer to my problems. I will not tolerate a loss of more than 10 points per trade. "Will not tolerate"? Because I try to get out with a loss of no more than 6-7 points, including the 2 point spread, ten points would be a real slip up.
How I enter and close trades is another subject but I have gained 198 points this month.
There were 53 trades (or 55, I lost one day's data). I think that I can, and should, do better but I am gratified to see such a consistant increase over a whole month. My record shows me 33 winning trades against 22 losers.
I'd like to help by saying that I do not discard opportunies to trade simply because the "logical" place to put a stop is too far away for the risk/reward aspect to make it attractive. I use an arbitrary 5-6 points and close policy. To hell with the text books---this month, at least!
I can only trade until 1330 UK time
Split
The trouble with long term trading is that it leaves time for worlking out new methods on Footsie, a kind of dog chasing its own tail , so this thread triggered my curiosity about my failures.
June started me off on my third tour.
Short stops are the answer to my problems. I will not tolerate a loss of more than 10 points per trade. "Will not tolerate"? Because I try to get out with a loss of no more than 6-7 points, including the 2 point spread, ten points would be a real slip up.
How I enter and close trades is another subject but I have gained 198 points this month.
There were 53 trades (or 55, I lost one day's data). I think that I can, and should, do better but I am gratified to see such a consistant increase over a whole month. My record shows me 33 winning trades against 22 losers.
I'd like to help by saying that I do not discard opportunies to trade simply because the "logical" place to put a stop is too far away for the risk/reward aspect to make it attractive. I use an arbitrary 5-6 points and close policy. To hell with the text books---this month, at least!
I can only trade until 1330 UK time
Split
shortorlong
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congrats on your gains! good to hear someone is making money.
"I use an arbitrary 5-6 points and close policy."
I have come to a similar idea .. if I see a profit .. I take it .. of course this stops me from running my winners .. which is a problem. but I just don't think I can predict the direction of the next few pips .. many times I have tried to run a winner and ended up hitting my stop. The other thing I have considered is that the probability of hitting a stop that is far away must be much less than hitting a very small profit target.
"Short stops are the answer to my problems."
Stops are a necessary evil I realise but . twice this week I have watched a bad trade turn benign by not setting a stop and adding to my losing position when it is 30/40 points out .. now I know this can end in disaster .. and probably will .. but I am only trading £2 per point ..
I know I need to think about this .. and stop doing it! after all: I can't predict the next tick and yet I am effectively trying to predict a reversal.
"How I enter and close trades is another subject but I have gained 198 points this month."
A subject you must elucidate on! please. If the ratio of wins to losses is good then scalping a few pips here and a few pips there is fine.
best wishes,
shortorlong