firewalker99
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How would you decide on buying or selling? Coin flip? What if I always wanted to buy? How does the number of times you chose to buy or sell affect your system?
Why waste time paper trading this masterpiece when it could be easily backtested. If you want to be taken seriously, backtesting is a starting point.
In the extraordinarily unlikely event that this makes money over several years of backtest, I'm sure some serious discussion will follow.
Another hint - systems with magic numbers such as "14" are very unlikely to have any edge.
Joules MM1
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damn.........I new there was something fishy about that acme trading coin that's got 7 heads on one side and 7 tails on the other..........:cheesy:
I don't know why you have bothered to start this thread, although you have every right to do so. This is a gamble, pure and simple, with no attempt to formulate any plan, except that you must start at the open with a stop of 14 points. They say that Simple is best and they don't come much simpler than this. However, one has to start somewhere and this as a good a place as any. Can't you complicate it a little?
Split
Split
Joules MM1
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ok, fair enough that my attempt at being whimsical went straight through to the wicket keeper........so here goes.........
there is an obvious dichotomy, maybe even an oxymoron between "you either buy or sell" and "no one can predict"
see it now?
You see, you have to have an expansive opinion that is, or can be, unlimited in scope upon which to decide to enter long or short (assuming you are flat at the open) and then the object is to restrict any upside and downside.........nothing wrong with defense........however, frankly, there are approximately 250(ish) trading days in the year........that is a lot of time spent on a hit or miss approach that is limited in the upside too......... an opinion is something that cannot be contained by the word strict, unless, you have strict guidelines for the opinion........so, we then need to be shown the opinion guidelines..........
again, a linear approach and the strategy/plan still requires an opinion to enter long or short.........one, basically, negates the other...........it's like painting a lanscape in black ad white colours
.......and there is no right or wrong and this is merely an opinion too, so, good hunting to you
Julian
I'm an experienced trader, all right! Plenty of bad ones as well as good
I don't think that it will be long before you twiggle with your plan, a little. Then, little by little, you'll be as sophisticated as the best of us.
Good trading
Split
I don't think that it will be long before you twiggle with your plan, a little. Then, little by little, you'll be as sophisticated as the best of us.
Good trading
Split
Joules MM1
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julian
yes - i suppose the "unable to predict" would require you to go long on one account and short on another, then rely on stops and money management to do the business. So long as you didn't get chopped to pieces of course
cheers
jon
Hi Jon,
yep, thought on that one too.........like two sep accounts to run arbitrary strats...........the spread left by that strat would likely require a captial amount to sit idle for the strat to extract the diff and it would have to be sizeable to provide a genuine income and I think that "size" would be better employed elsewhere ......we are afterall talking 14 points ..........although, this reply tends to give a creedence to the original proposition which is not my intention.........
Joules
Jonny,
In all those trades, have you been able to keep a record of the average number of points gained in the winning ones? Strip out the very lucky ones, which can be construed as rare. You must calculate your stop losses-- and that includes the spread, commission, etc.---- to be less than those average gains, or you cannot make money or, at least, not worthwhile money. If you are averaging gains of 20-30 points, with only one trade a day then, I suggest that, stop losses of 14 points are too much. I have made 40 points at times, by trading the Footsie, but have rarely been good enough to do that in the first trade of the day, or even, one trade---although it does happen. Those who do trade all day, and I can't, may stand the chance of a better points gain, but part timers must keep their stops smaller, in my opinion.
Split
In all those trades, have you been able to keep a record of the average number of points gained in the winning ones? Strip out the very lucky ones, which can be construed as rare. You must calculate your stop losses-- and that includes the spread, commission, etc.---- to be less than those average gains, or you cannot make money or, at least, not worthwhile money. If you are averaging gains of 20-30 points, with only one trade a day then, I suggest that, stop losses of 14 points are too much. I have made 40 points at times, by trading the Footsie, but have rarely been good enough to do that in the first trade of the day, or even, one trade---although it does happen. Those who do trade all day, and I can't, may stand the chance of a better points gain, but part timers must keep their stops smaller, in my opinion.
Split
bottomleyp
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Hi
I am an inexperienced novice, lost lots of money on indices, stocks and commodities.
Lately my new strategy on indices is, guess whether long or short, based on whether you think a correction or a rise is imminent and back it. Ensure you have plenty of dosh to keep rolling over the position on a daily bet. Eventually I hope, you will get your result.
I have done this lately on Gold and Nymex, it did succeed. I am presently short on the DOW and FTSE at end of April, got in on the FTSE and 6417 and the DOW at 12985 and still hope to make money by end of June
I am an inexperienced novice, lost lots of money on indices, stocks and commodities.
Lately my new strategy on indices is, guess whether long or short, based on whether you think a correction or a rise is imminent and back it. Ensure you have plenty of dosh to keep rolling over the position on a daily bet. Eventually I hope, you will get your result.
I have done this lately on Gold and Nymex, it did succeed. I am presently short on the DOW and FTSE at end of April, got in on the FTSE and 6417 and the DOW at 12985 and still hope to make money by end of June
I think a lot is lost in buy AND shorting. If your view is long, then that should be the direction of your trades. Forget the cute shorting opportunies under those circumstances. If you think that a pullback is due close, by all means , and try to get back in lower down. If unsuccessful buy back in with a few points loss, but that is not so hurtful as a short that failed.
bottomleyp
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Thanks for your reply SplitLink
The problem I have, is I still expect all markets to get hammered within the next two months, based on the US markets completely overstretched, chinese market overstretched and this Bull run charging without a major correction. I cannot monitor the markets all the time due to work committments, so to close a position down that is running against me, is foolish in my opinion, but can be costly keeping it running. Today is a typical example, this morning I expected the FTSE, DAX and the American markets to rise steeply based on the Assian markets and M&A activity, but it didn't. So I could have closed my DOW and FTSE position before going to work and lost out by the evening. See my predictament !
Anyway, I do need to change my strategy in the near future, so I will keep reading traders comments on this bulletin board and get a few ideas.
The problem I have, is I still expect all markets to get hammered within the next two months, based on the US markets completely overstretched, chinese market overstretched and this Bull run charging without a major correction. I cannot monitor the markets all the time due to work committments, so to close a position down that is running against me, is foolish in my opinion, but can be costly keeping it running. Today is a typical example, this morning I expected the FTSE, DAX and the American markets to rise steeply based on the Assian markets and M&A activity, but it didn't. So I could have closed my DOW and FTSE position before going to work and lost out by the evening. See my predictament !
Anyway, I do need to change my strategy in the near future, so I will keep reading traders comments on this bulletin board and get a few ideas.