Tried and Trusted ?
End of January brings out all sorts of forecasts for the Dow stockmarket year. Amonst them are three I have selected for you.
Ist week in January
If the market is up at the end of the first full week, then it will
be higher at the end of the year.
Dec 31 -10454
Jan 09 - 10459
Boy, was that close ?
Reasonable predictor I believe. i.e better than 50%
January effect
Dec 31 - 10454
Jan 31 - 10488
Still close !
Can't find any stats on this, but it seems to hang on, so is presumably better than 50%
There is another which climaxes on Sunday - The Superbowl.
If the NFC team win - Market is up for the year
If the AFC team win - Market is down for the year.
This year
Carolina Panthers - NFC
New England Patriots - AFC
(In October last year, you could have got 8500 - 1 against the Panthers)
Very good statistically - better than 80%
So cheer Carolina if you want a rising market or just cheer Dana !
Best Renko balcony on show !
End of January brings out all sorts of forecasts for the Dow stockmarket year. Amonst them are three I have selected for you.
Ist week in January
If the market is up at the end of the first full week, then it will
be higher at the end of the year.
Dec 31 -10454
Jan 09 - 10459
Boy, was that close ?
Reasonable predictor I believe. i.e better than 50%
January effect
Dec 31 - 10454
Jan 31 - 10488
Still close !
Can't find any stats on this, but it seems to hang on, so is presumably better than 50%
There is another which climaxes on Sunday - The Superbowl.
If the NFC team win - Market is up for the year
If the AFC team win - Market is down for the year.
This year
Carolina Panthers - NFC
New England Patriots - AFC
(In October last year, you could have got 8500 - 1 against the Panthers)
Very good statistically - better than 80%
So cheer Carolina if you want a rising market or just cheer Dana !
Best Renko balcony on show !
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barjon
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.......and ftse goes 4477, 4473, 4390. Close and not so close
but in a southerly direction
January's monthly candle was only the second down month in
twelve months.
Lasts week's candle completed only the third sequence of two
consecutive weeks down since March.
As for the daily, well we clambered back above 431 briefly but
couldn't hold (support becomes resistance?) so that's the second
confirming tick to my change of intermediate trend signal. Nothing
from the candlesticks to relieve a bearish view. Tuesday's
inverted hammer doji signalled the temporary relief on
Wednesday.
If you read the picture as a double top formation and you're
a fan of measured moves I guess you expect some support to
appear around 360ish. It all looks so gloomy I expect we'll get
a surprise - let February unfold
good trading
but in a southerly direction
January's monthly candle was only the second down month in
twelve months.
Lasts week's candle completed only the third sequence of two
consecutive weeks down since March.
As for the daily, well we clambered back above 431 briefly but
couldn't hold (support becomes resistance?) so that's the second
confirming tick to my change of intermediate trend signal. Nothing
from the candlesticks to relieve a bearish view. Tuesday's
inverted hammer doji signalled the temporary relief on
Wednesday.
If you read the picture as a double top formation and you're
a fan of measured moves I guess you expect some support to
appear around 360ish. It all looks so gloomy I expect we'll get
a surprise - let February unfold
good trading
