Hooya:
My humble take on the FOMC wording is that Sir is just preparing the markets for a future interest rate hike (as he has always done in the past). However, futures markets still suggest September 2004 for the first rate increase.
Of course, the actual decision will depend on future economic data releases. But, whereas strong data in the past, was taken as good news, in future it risks sparking concerns over potential rate increases.
The concern for interest rate watchers is that the US economy is growing well in excess of the current 1% interest rate. Either, rates have to go up or growth has to slow. Odds suggest a combination of both. This is not the end of the current cyclical bull market, but the first indication of the potential beginning of its end.
PS: markets couldn't care less about my views and will do what ever they have to do.
Just an attempt to stimulate a discussion.
My humble take on the FOMC wording is that Sir is just preparing the markets for a future interest rate hike (as he has always done in the past). However, futures markets still suggest September 2004 for the first rate increase.
Of course, the actual decision will depend on future economic data releases. But, whereas strong data in the past, was taken as good news, in future it risks sparking concerns over potential rate increases.
The concern for interest rate watchers is that the US economy is growing well in excess of the current 1% interest rate. Either, rates have to go up or growth has to slow. Odds suggest a combination of both. This is not the end of the current cyclical bull market, but the first indication of the potential beginning of its end.
PS: markets couldn't care less about my views and will do what ever they have to do.
Just an attempt to stimulate a discussion.
well, to summarise what I see ?
corrective action (implying more downside)
a/d is negative but rising although not the -90 it was early on.
1 day is falling (obviously)
macd is now rising from what I call "impossibly oversold" i.e has become almost useless.
RSI has not yet bottomed.
so, yes, the big wait is here.
early lunch I think
corrective action (implying more downside)
a/d is negative but rising although not the -90 it was early on.
1 day is falling (obviously)
macd is now rising from what I call "impossibly oversold" i.e has become almost useless.
RSI has not yet bottomed.
so, yes, the big wait is here.
early lunch I think
hungrybear
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wish I'd shown the same mastery of inactivity. 2 entries and 2 losing exits. one of those days.
BTW, the Dow & SnP both did precise 23% retracements to the late Nov lows yesterday. IMO, this increase the probablility that's it's a wave 4.
BTW, the Dow & SnP both did precise 23% retracements to the late Nov lows yesterday. IMO, this increase the probablility that's it's a wave 4.
if I was doing the count, i would be tempted to have to count
the move which I have marked in red.
The has the consequence of meaning that all subsequent waves belong to that start and should also be in red.
so even if we complete your fifth, it might only be black 3 ?
alternatively, you should move your 2 to where I have put mine.
but I do think your 2 looks OK.
in any event see my trend line from 2 to 4.
if we break above that then the down wave will have finished.
that's the theory anyway.
waves are bounded by 2/4 trend.
which is why I prefer my count as that trend line looks wrong.
the support found to create ii looks too strong.
the move which I have marked in red.
The has the consequence of meaning that all subsequent waves belong to that start and should also be in red.
so even if we complete your fifth, it might only be black 3 ?
alternatively, you should move your 2 to where I have put mine.
but I do think your 2 looks OK.
in any event see my trend line from 2 to 4.
if we break above that then the down wave will have finished.
that's the theory anyway.
waves are bounded by 2/4 trend.
which is why I prefer my count as that trend line looks wrong.
the support found to create ii looks too strong.
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Thats not as bearish is it ??? :-(
Here's my summary chart for today chart...got messy after lunch
so no positions for me but actually looks like a bounce is on the cards on my other charts so a drop and pop would we good at the open tomorrow. BTW Bonsai I went with the trend, albeit a bit late this morning but it made it all the better felt like another breathrough in the Hooya devlopment
Here's my summary chart for today chart...got messy after lunch
so no positions for me but actually looks like a bounce is on the cards on my other charts so a drop and pop would we good at the open tomorrow. BTW Bonsai I went with the trend, albeit a bit late this morning but it made it all the better felt like another breathrough in the Hooya devlopment
