fotheringham
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Anyone think today is the day for a Dow key reversal ?
Interesting thread guys, as always.
When I'm confused, which is most of the time, I like to have a look at the Market Timing charts in AIQ. These are based on an unweighted composite of the FTSE Allshare constituents, and enable market breadth data to be calculated from your own database.
The charts below show both the weekly (left) and the daily (top right) market timing charts, plus the daily FTSE100 index for comparative purposes (bottom right). There is significant divergence between the main breadth indicators and price in each case. Look how strong the divergence was on the weekly chart before the March bottom. this signal was just as powerful on the daily chart as well. This stuff tends to work better at bottoms than tops. New highs for the FTSE100 index have not been confirmed by Market Timing Price and the indicators have been in decline for the last 3 months. This doesn't necessarily predict a fall, just that the outlook is not bullish.
Just my two penn'orth!
When I'm confused, which is most of the time, I like to have a look at the Market Timing charts in AIQ. These are based on an unweighted composite of the FTSE Allshare constituents, and enable market breadth data to be calculated from your own database.
The charts below show both the weekly (left) and the daily (top right) market timing charts, plus the daily FTSE100 index for comparative purposes (bottom right). There is significant divergence between the main breadth indicators and price in each case. Look how strong the divergence was on the weekly chart before the March bottom. this signal was just as powerful on the daily chart as well. This stuff tends to work better at bottoms than tops. New highs for the FTSE100 index have not been confirmed by Market Timing Price and the indicators have been in decline for the last 3 months. This doesn't necessarily predict a fall, just that the outlook is not bullish.
Just my two penn'orth!
Attachments
thanks for that Roger.
there is an awful lot of info to absorb in those charts.
but yes, Ftse does seem to be running out of steam
(not that it ever had very much since April)
however when you put another shovel full of coal on the fire
it can get cool for a while ?
so it could still go either way , imo
there is an awful lot of info to absorb in those charts.
but yes, Ftse does seem to be running out of steam
(not that it ever had very much since April)
however when you put another shovel full of coal on the fire
it can get cool for a while ?
so it could still go either way , imo
barjon
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interesting charts Roger
so far I've had a shooting star @ 365 and an inverted hammer
@345. When I clicked on them I was surprised to see a little
bird appear with a message in its beak.
The first said "No, not this far he only said 360"
The second said "ok, that's enough you'd better start getting
back to the master's magic number"
Who said the market doesn't know what some people are
thinking?
so far I've had a shooting star @ 365 and an inverted hammer
@345. When I clicked on them I was surprised to see a little
bird appear with a message in its beak.
The first said "No, not this far he only said 360"
The second said "ok, that's enough you'd better start getting
back to the master's magic number"
Who said the market doesn't know what some people are
thinking?
fotheringham
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Anyone use Harmonic Price Patterns (i.e. Gartley, Three Drives) ?
hungrybear
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Fotheringham,
No I dont think we'll see a key reversal on the Dow today. I have Monday as a turn day, though even then I'm not convinced it'll be the top. There is likely to be a top around the turn of the year and we need to see how low, then high, it goes, but for the short-term I believe there's more to come from the Dow. Note how yesterday it broke the 10K, at the second time of trying, and closed above it. That's pretty bullish.
The Ftse is a different story and is keeping me guessing. Last year we also saw the Ftse make an earlier high than the Dow as the two markets diverged at this time. The Ftse did manage another rally, but if the pattern is to repeat, it says a fall is on the way, probably early next year.
No I dont think we'll see a key reversal on the Dow today. I have Monday as a turn day, though even then I'm not convinced it'll be the top. There is likely to be a top around the turn of the year and we need to see how low, then high, it goes, but for the short-term I believe there's more to come from the Dow. Note how yesterday it broke the 10K, at the second time of trying, and closed above it. That's pretty bullish.
The Ftse is a different story and is keeping me guessing. Last year we also saw the Ftse make an earlier high than the Dow as the two markets diverged at this time. The Ftse did manage another rally, but if the pattern is to repeat, it says a fall is on the way, probably early next year.
fotheringham
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I think you're right re the Dow today, hungrybear. Yesterday's range is just too big to reverse in all probability. I'll be patient if I can - it'll happen soon enough.
fotheringham
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bonsai,
A very simple introduction here:
http://www.harmonictrader.com/whatht.htm
Have a dig around the website for a little more info and some specific examples.
Also:
http://www.kanetrading.com/index.html
At first I thought "hmm.. Elliott Wave meets Fibonacci...so what?" but my interest is gaining.
A very simple introduction here:
http://www.harmonictrader.com/whatht.htm
Have a dig around the website for a little more info and some specific examples.
Also:
http://www.kanetrading.com/index.html
At first I thought "hmm.. Elliott Wave meets Fibonacci...so what?" but my interest is gaining.
fotheringham
doh !
My old friend J.M Hurst !
Yes, after all, I do know about harmonic trading but it was all so long ago.
I really did give that a good try in the late 70's but didnt have the sort of success that others seemed to enjoy.
So I guess it didnt suit me.
Still got the books though.
Never throw a good idea away.
I do occasionally post about cycles being in and out of phase
and that's where it comes from.
doh !
My old friend J.M Hurst !
Yes, after all, I do know about harmonic trading but it was all so long ago.
I really did give that a good try in the late 70's but didnt have the sort of success that others seemed to enjoy.
So I guess it didnt suit me.
Still got the books though.
Never throw a good idea away.
I do occasionally post about cycles being in and out of phase
and that's where it comes from.
fotheringham
Junior member
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late 70s? - bloody hell matey, I was at nursery school. Can you let me know which books you have that delve into the subject and whether they're worth acquiring?
RogerM
Those market timing charts are great, and remind me how much I miss AIQ. I was using this until about a year ago, but I stopped mainly because of data issues with MyTrack. Now I'm using Sierra/MyTrack, and of course I still get the same data issues
Anyway my question is this - did you set up these timing charts for the UK yourself, or is it now part of the standard package? I had to use the US charts as there was nothing there for this, and couldn't really figure out how to set it up and maintain it for the UK. In fact only the FTSE 100 shares were included in the database, if you wanted more you had to set it all up manually, which I found to be a real PITA.
Also, does the AIQ UK support guy still provide the data cleaning service, if so how much and how does it work now (e.g. can he now e-mail it instead of shipping CDs)?
If AIQ now has better UK support I am tempted to return to it, as I also really liked many other features, including the really easy EDS backtesting stuff - compared to the skills you need to do this in Sierra anyway.
TIA
KenN
Those market timing charts are great, and remind me how much I miss AIQ. I was using this until about a year ago, but I stopped mainly because of data issues with MyTrack. Now I'm using Sierra/MyTrack, and of course I still get the same data issues
Anyway my question is this - did you set up these timing charts for the UK yourself, or is it now part of the standard package? I had to use the US charts as there was nothing there for this, and couldn't really figure out how to set it up and maintain it for the UK. In fact only the FTSE 100 shares were included in the database, if you wanted more you had to set it all up manually, which I found to be a real PITA.
Also, does the AIQ UK support guy still provide the data cleaning service, if so how much and how does it work now (e.g. can he now e-mail it instead of shipping CDs)?
If AIQ now has better UK support I am tempted to return to it, as I also really liked many other features, including the really easy EDS backtesting stuff - compared to the skills you need to do this in Sierra anyway.
TIA
KenN
