Frustrated trader, need advice

marketpupil

Junior member
27 0
What a load of cobblers. There are an infinite number of patterns and you've found one. You may also find that over the last twenty years, GBP/USD rallies on the third Wednesday of May 87% of the time. This does NOT mean it has a 87% chance of rallying on that day this year.

Or if you do believe this, you need to take a lesson in basic statistics.

This is the basic difference between Fundamentalist and those who make trades based on TA and historical data. All I can tell you is that this strategy has been a consistent winner in the past and is currently a consistent winner.

With regard to statistics, when over the course of 19 months, there are 200+ trades made and over 150 of those are profitable, I would certainly say that there is a natural bias in the market.

Thanks for the reply.
 

marketpupil

Junior member
27 0
Those of you who wish to laugh can do so, I am simply sharing with you a strategy that has been proven to be consistent over time for my account. Time based trading works.

Now, an update for you who are interested:

The 3:30pm bar closed up. I am back in the AU open trade short selling until the open of the 7:30pm bar, until I hit my stop of 40 pips, or my limit of 10 pips.

I will update you once this trade is completed. Cheers!
 

meanreversion

Senior member
3,398 537
This is the basic difference between Fundamentalist and those who make trades based on TA and historical data. All I can tell you is that this strategy has been a consistent winner in the past and is currently a consistent winner.

With regard to statistics, when over the course of 19 months, there are 200+ trades made and over 150 of those are profitable, I would certainly say that there is a natural bias in the market.

Thanks for the reply.

Er, did you make 150 successful trades in the market in 19 months, or is that your backtest?

Can I ask why you think that all patterns which have occurred in the past should repeat themselves?
 

DashRiprock

Experienced member
1,650 482
what is the modus operandi for your trade?
 

DashRiprock

Experienced member
1,650 482
Event A occurred at time B on more than 80% of the time, therefore the next time B comes around, it is 80% likely that A occurs again.

this is just like adams blog!

sorry this is not a good strategy. you cant drive a car from looking in the mirrors and hoping the roads will always be the same.
 

meanreversion

Senior member
3,398 537
I've actually seen a presentation from a chap who trades this way. He data mines to find non-causal relationships, e.g. EUR/USD rallies first day of September 18 times out of the last 20 years.. then buys digitals the next time it comes round at (e.g.) 53%, believing that "true value" is 18/20 = 90%.
 

DashRiprock

Experienced member
1,650 482
sorry i dont want to knock the blog off line

I have NEVER been to a seminar or NEVEr paid someone for mentoring or courses or anything. there is too much BS out there i save my money for market data nd good software and best information i can afford :cool:

the thing about those types of strategy is that, imo, some of them are OK. specially when you look at things like inter commodity spreads like the agris, there is a famous website I will try and make a link when i think of it. or even small caps or january effect, it doesnt mean it wont work from now on but it has to be better than just being coincidence!

there is as well a good book on behavioural finance which has like 20 best papers with like closed end fund puzzle and things which is nice trading reading. link if i can remember :)
 

marketpupil

Junior member
27 0
I've actually seen a presentation from a chap who trades this way. He data mines to find non-causal relationships, e.g. EUR/USD rallies first day of September 18 times out of the last 20 years.. then buys digitals the next time it comes round at (e.g.) 53%, believing that "true value" is 18/20 = 90%.

What you have outlined in this post is a weak system, primarily because 18 occurrences over 20 years is simply not enough to indicate any type of natural bias.

I have traded this system for about 7 months now, with a success rate that lines up with the back tested results. In addition, this system back tests over the last 19 months and 10 years with nearly the same staggering results. Can you explain why this trade has been successful for the last 10 years?

I simply cannot chalk this up to coincidence. There is a clear causal relationship between the US session ending bullishly and the AU session opening bearishly. As I said before, time-based trading works. The key to any successful, back tested strategy is the amount of occurrences over time. Both the time and the amount of occurrences bear this out. Here are the numbers since 06/05/09:

Total Trades: 233
Winners: 171
Losers: 62
Winning % = 73.39%

Gross Profit: $23,290.00
Gross Loss: $14,356.00

Net Profit: $8,934.00
Avg Monthly P/L: $446.70
 

marketpupil

Junior member
27 0
Just a quick update. The AU open trade was a success today. I entered the trade at 1.36023 and hit my target at 1.35923 at around 5:09 CST.

Profit = 10 pips ($100)
Length of trade = 3 bars

I'll keep updating this board as this trade progresses. Have a great day!
 

DashRiprock

Experienced member
1,650 482
What you have outlined in this post is a weak system, primarily because 18 occurrences over 20 years is simply not enough to indicate any type of natural bias.

I have traded this system for about 7 months now, with a success rate that lines up with the back tested results. In addition, this system back tests over the last 19 months and 10 years with nearly the same staggering results. Can you explain why this trade has been successful for the last 10 years?

I simply cannot chalk this up to coincidence. There is a clear causal relationship between the US session ending bullishly and the AU session opening bearishly. As I said before, time-based trading works. The key to any successful, back tested strategy is the amount of occurrences over time. Both the time and the amount of occurrences bear this out. Here are the numbers since 06/05/09:

Total Trades: 233
Winners: 171
Losers: 62
Winning % = 73.39%

Gross Profit: $23,290.00
Gross Loss: $14,356.00

Net Profit: $8,934.00
Avg Monthly P/L: $446.70

hi :)

sorry but I am disagreeing with you.

NOT about the US / AUD thing... for example it could be that the easiest way to trade a good US session in australia is to short aussiedollar because of narrowing ir differentials. nobody i dont think is saying that is COULDNT make sense, but you are getting to a plausible conclusion from a coincidental route.

you say you wont put it down to coindidence. Have yu tested for this?

I reckon that if you got 10 different daily prices spread from asset classes over 20 years you can find SOME patterns that are stastically above/below average. that some will be above and below is written in the rules!

sorry but your strategy is not robust, it is retrospective. not to mention that its very hard to trade.
 

marketpupil

Junior member
27 0
hi :)

sorry but I am disagreeing with you.

NOT about the US / AUD thing... for example it could be that the easiest way to trade a good US session in australia is to short aussiedollar because of narrowing ir differentials. nobody i dont think is saying that is COULDNT make sense, but you are getting to a plausible conclusion from a coincidental route.

you say you wont put it down to coindidence. Have yu tested for this?

I reckon that if you got 10 different daily prices spread from asset classes over 20 years you can find SOME patterns that are stastically above/below average. that some will be above and below is written in the rules!

sorry but your strategy is not robust, it is retrospective. not to mention that its very hard to trade.

As I said, the disagreement is the basic argument against TA by fundamentalist. At the core of my analysis and trading, I have found that history does, in fact, repeat itself on a consistent basis.

All I can tell you is that I have several strategies similar to this one that have proven to be successful over time both in both back tested and trading scenarios.

This system is very consistent and very easy to trade. I have had no difficulty hand-trading this. If a trader does not have time to hand-trade this, they can simply commission someone to program an EA in MT4 or 5 to place the trade automatically.

There are natural biases in the market, and this happens to be one of them. I appreciate your response, but I must agree to disagree and let the profit speak for itself. :D
 

liontrades

Junior member
23 0
Aspiring trader,

Having taught many trainee traders myself, I can tell you that one of the reasons you are failing is because you do not have your set rules draw out. Have all your rules drawn out and just stick to them. Obviously the hard part is drawing up a set of rules which are continually profitable. The only way to achieve this is to keep backtesting.

Regards
 
 
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