argh! Really frustrated! (trading related)

[Pazienza]

oh lol! Sorry my bad, i honestly don't remember selecting that? And here` you thinking you've unveiled a secret accomplice to a spread betting firm! Get a grip Pazienza, if you havnt got anything constructive to say on these forums then go sniff out your phantom spy's else where... Jesus lol.

You asked a question, I gave an informative and civil reply. What is wrong with that?

 

[Pazienza]

eh?
Paz, despite being openly gay, was just trying to help you I think. You said you were confused and he explained that the reason people were asking questions of you was because you had a vendor badge that said ''spreadbetting company''

Besides, he hasn't got anything better to do.

Paz, you wanna meet up with me instead of blackswan?? Im thinking roller-blading in the park.

I object to being called "openly" gay. I prefer "flamboyantly" or "horrendously".

Roller-blading in the park sounds fab-u-lous!

 

[D.Gilberto]

Yea sorry Pazienza its only because i thought it was going to severely get off topic because ive read threads before where somebody gets burnt at the stake because he/she sounded like they worked at a SB company and there concealing there identity under an alias account... which obviously isnt the case with me! And to be frank i thought was going to destroy the thread!

 

[Pazienza]

Yea sorry Pazienza its only because i thought it was going to severely get off topic because ive read threads before where somebody gets burnt at the stake because he/she sounded like they worked at a SB company and there concealing there identity under an alias account... which obviously isnt the case with me! And to be frank i thought was going to destroy the thread!

No probs.

With regard to your problem, good and bad news. Bad is that there is not really a mechanical solution. Good is that pretty much everyone goes through the same thing. It's really just a step on the journey, and is nothing to fear or be surprised about.

First, treat it as a major learning step. Everything changes when you go live. I had the same thing, and all it really came down to was getting the live experience. I kept (and keep) very careful notes and reviewed all my trades. It soon became apparent what really worked and what didn't. At the same time, I continued trading and at some point I just got sick of being walloped when I knew I shouldn't be getting walloped. At that point the discipline kicked in and combined with knowledge of what type of set up I "should" be trading, enabled me to focus and eliminate the weaker trades.

You're just going through the steps, that's all. The most important thing now you're live is to trade small until your results justify trading bigger. You need that live experience, just get it as cheaply as you can.

 

[Joey25]

Hi guys as you can see havnt posted here much before

(Anyone who wants to know bit about me:
Little bit of information about me, im 22 years old, have previous background in finance (offshore investment, life insurance, financial advisor for Lloyds; not that, that`s relevant in trading) starting learning about trading approx year and a half ago and have ever since been profitable with a £5k acc from around 2 months ago.

Platforms I use are IG Index, Capital Spreads and ETX capital.)

If you`ve read that, then your probably thinking wheres this thread going...

Thing is, I believe ive done alot of hard grafting and studying, practising on demo account, back-testing setups, proving that i have a systematic approach to being long term profitable (and thankfully i have) HOWEVER... the problem is i got lucky... I have recently sat back with my acc in + and re-evaluated the longevity of my trading and the probabilities of my current setup working... And it wasnt looking good.

So this brings us up to about a month ago i then decided to develop a sound systematic theory based upon EW, fib maths, fib retracements, daily pivots, trend lines, MA`s, confluence on higher TF`s and AVOIDING news (as 100% TA)

I then backtested on AUDUSD-EURUSD-EURGBP-GBPUSD - FTSE-DAX-DJIA and from the past months i have spent ALOT of time collating all the information to find the system to be very very promising with a very in depth statistical overview piecing everything i`d like to know about the methodology behind it and any weakness`s.

I then demo` it for 2 weeks and was in alot more profit and very confident.

So again your probably still asking where is this going....

I then went live and first couple of day i was down -50 and have therefore lost all confidence despite having back-tested 290 trades (and forward tested 120 (forgot to mention)

I have taken a bit of a roller coaster in emotions and after doing all the studying on learning technical analysis and finding what suits me best i have established for me personally the biggest part of trading is the psychological effects of the losses ruining my trading set-up!

Just wanted to share this with everyone and more importantly getting to the punch line what i`d like is for people to recommend or suggest a program i could use (if there were any ) on helping me correctly and accurately verify each trade through back-testing rather than me looking back and sub-consciously manipulating any trades for the statistic` benefit... and also the practicality of it... either way im not trying to create a trading system... i`ll still manually trade what i see on the set-ups...

Very grateful for those who have read this and open to any suggestions, feedback, constructive criticism.

(anyone who has greater experience than I and would like to know more details about my trading setup i`d be more than happy to share charts with clearly and very simply written information explaining all the theories and areas of confluence confirming targets and stops)

If you can get MATLAB, or the open-source version Octave, then that's a good place to start, since they are vector languages. Otherwise Excel or R.

To statistically test your strategy you want to create a vector of its daily profits, where daily profits are in percentages. Then follow these steps:

1) Calculate the average or median return, and use this as your 'test statistic'.

2) Use the software to randomly sample with replacement from the real profits to create artificial profits series. Calculate the average profit for all of these. Then calculate the standard deviation of these numbers.

3) Your 'null hypothesis' is that the mean return of your system is 0. Work out how many standard deviations away from 0 your actual 'test statistic' is.

Depending on how many standard deviations away from 0 the actual result is, you can work out the chance that the result is a fluke. For example, if it was 2 standard deviations away, you would be 97.5% sure that you had a good method.

 

[morgan_edge]

I object to being called "openly" gay. I prefer "flamboyantly" or "horrendously".

Roller-blading in the park sounds fab-u-lous!

yipeeee!

You trade EURUSD, don't you?
How many pips you made today? I've started trading it this week.

 

[Pazienza]

yipeeee!

You trade EURUSD, don't you?
How many pips you made today? I've started trading it this week.

Forex is fr straight people. I trade big, gay futures.

 

[morgan_edge]

Forex is fr straight people. I trade big, gay futures.

I know all about the instruments you people trade, but they all move together, really.
In fact, whilst im trying to learn im stealing an idea from another poster here (cant remember who) and am taking my trades from the 6E and placing the same trade live on the EURUSD in my straight mans spreadbet account.

Thus, 2 lucky days in a row so far :

 

[Pazienza]

I know all about the instruments you people trade, but they all move together, really.
In fact, whilst im trying to learn im stealing an idea from another poster here (cant remember who) and am taking my trades from the 6E and placing the same trade live on the EURUSD in my straight mans spreadbet account.

Thus, 2 lucky days in a row so far :

You say you're learning - if so I would seriously, seriously consider looking at index futures.

 

[morgan_edge]

You say you're learning - if so I would seriously, seriously consider looking at index futures.

What, like the YM and ES and stuff?
Too high of a tick value though for someone who doesn't necessarily know what they're doing, no? Same with currecny futures.
And why INDEX futures?

Have you made any 6e trades today?

Why dont we get a 6E trading chatroom going with 5 or 6 of us? DinosaurToast trades the 6E. I could copy both of your trades and buy things with the money i make..?

 

[Pazienza]

What, like the YM and ES and stuff?
Too high of a tick value though for someone who doesn't necessarily know what they're doing, no? Same with currecny futures.
And why INDEX futures?

Have you made any 6e trades today?

Why dont we get a 6E trading chatroom going with 5 or 6 of us? DinosaurToast trades the 6E. I could copy both of your trades and buy things with the money i make..?

YM, ES, NQ, TF.

Why? Check out the action intraday. Very trendy.

True about the tick value but if you're SBing you can have a go on their versions at a lower amount.

No currency futures for me, sorry.

 

[D.Gilberto]

thanks for all your feedback guys! Appreciate it!