ForexMorningTrade System

[tkbieber]

Nice system andybissel, you should charge fror that

tkbieber, after reading your blog I have been trialing a Hotforex demo, same as the other MT4 brokers, spreadbet companies but Hotforex spreads are higher 2.2 on G/U 2.5 on U/C 3 E/C 5 A/C all of which I trade many times each day so it adds up.
Thinkforex have better spreads and they are ECN too, it should not be an excuse to widen spreads IMO.

It appears, Think Forex has stipulations which would limit my trading.

Below is what they have to say about me.

--------------------
"Dear Person or Entity,

Please note that ThinkForex does not solicit or service accounts from residents of your country. Please review our contact information below should you have any questions on this matter.

Citizens and legal entities from the United States, need to qualify as "Eligible Contract Participant" to be able to trade with Think Forex . One or more of the suitability requirements as set forth in section 1(a)(12) of the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act need to be met.

If you feel you qualify as a ECP or Eligible Contract Participant please email our compliance staff for the required documentation. "

 

[Adamus]

Personally I think if you have the ability, take FMT apart, put it back together and test as many different parameter settings with as much data as you can.

I did that in November last year and came up with something very similar to the FMT EA author's settings: take the first entry signal given at 6, 6:15, 6:30, 6:45 or 7:00, 40 pip target, 40 pip stop. No b/e. No trailing stop.

This is the equity curve for 2001 - this week. Look at those 2 dips just now.

I am going to trade this until it has proven itself to look much more like 2001 than 2010. It could be more 2007 at the moment. Or a new type. No-one knows except God, and according to Stephen Hawking he's a gambler anyway.

 

[coral]

Strange I thinking along the same lines as Adamus but with performance on FMT from 2007 to now.
Below you see both 6:15 and 6:30 since Jan 2007. Metaquotes data @ 90% (trading 45 35 25 5 on FMT 4.3)

 

[Too Sexy]

I didn't find Feb and March 2010 so bad in my careful research, but August between 5th and 12th I think in the case of 40tp/40sl there were 5 consecutive losses getting to the stage where only 2 in the previous 10 were winners. Then as we may remember well between 15th and 28th December there were 7 consecutive losses, meaning only 2 in 10 rolling trades were right

At this moment, for 40/40 in the last 10 trades ignoring LCF and BE we are at a winning rate of 3 in 10

Yet 2240 net positive pips in the last 250 trades !

I can only think the conditions which cause even 10tp not to be achieved (and 10 is almost noise) are temporary and in a couple more months we'll forget what the worry was about.[/QUOTE



You can post all the pretty graphs you want showing this information to make FMT look good.

But the simple fact is that those graph or nothing more then BACKTESTING after the fact and not one is even 99% modeling.


Real Live FORWARD TESTING from Aug 2010 to date with the official results post on the website over the last 10 months and taking into account 2 losses at 45 pips each, maybe 3 brings May losses to either 190 or 240 pips down for the month.


Which is only an average of 33 pips per anyway you see it. But by all means keep playing these mind games.

Gee so much work for a system that according to the real forward testing to date May 18 is only averaging 33 pips or less per month, what a joke.

 

[wiseambitions]

I didn't find Feb and March 2010 so bad in my careful research, but August between 5th and 12th I think in the case of 40tp/40sl there were 5 consecutive losses getting to the stage where only 2 in the previous 10 were winners. Then as we may remember well between 15th and 28th December there were 7 consecutive losses, meaning only 2 in 10 rolling trades were right

At this moment, for 40/40 in the last 10 trades ignoring LCF and BE we are at a winning rate of 3 in 10

Yet 2240 net positive pips in the last 250 trades !

I can only think the conditions which cause even 10tp not to be achieved (and 10 is almost noise) are temporary and in a couple more months we'll forget what the worry was about.[/QUOTE



You can post all the pretty graphs you want showing this information to make FMT look good.

But the simple fact is that those graph or nothing more then BACKTESTING after the fact and not one is even 99% modeling.


Real Live FORWARD TESTING from Aug 2010 to date with the official results post on the website over the last 10 months and taking into account 2 losses at 45 pips each, maybe 3 brings May losses to either 190 or 240 pips down for the month.


Which is only an average of 33 pips per anyway you see it. But by all means keep playing these mind games.

Gee so much work for a system that according to the real forward testing to date May 18 is only averaging 33 pips or less per month, what a joke.

Too Sexy Indeed! Re your post number 4:

Just you be a little bit careful, newly joining the forum, and despising a lot of meticulous hard work some of us veterans have conducted over the last 6 months.



Not only is the data forward tested from last August, but some of us have pored through thousands of numbers from the most reliable available sources going back many months before then so we are happy with our stats. Yes we do know full well there have been better runs for FMT than the last few months, particularly June through to November of last year, and we do agree that recent experience has been disappointing.

But please do us a favour and if you have something to say please apply common courtesy

 

[RobM.]

QUOTE: Too Sexy

You can post all the pretty graphs you want showing this information to make FMT look good.

But the simple fact is that those graph or nothing more then BACKTESTING after the fact and not one is even 99% modeling.


Real Live FORWARD TESTING from Aug 2010 to date with the official results post on the website over the last 10 months and taking into account 2 losses at 45 pips each, maybe 3 brings May losses to either 190 or 240 pips down for the month.


Which is only an average of 33 pips per anyway you see it. But by all means keep playing these mind games.

Gee so much work for a system that according to the real forward testing to date May 18 is only averaging 33 pips or less per month, what a joke.[/QUOTE]



The psychology of this intrigues me.

If you do not believe FMT can, has or will work, then simply do not trade it.

Despite your protestations, which our friend, wiseambitions, has admirably addressed, you must be over-invested in this or other systems, financially or emotionally. Why else would you complain so loudly?

Why would you care? It's patently not to benefit others, from a standpoint of experience and stability.

Whatever your, misguided, motivation please try and make your points in a polite, discursive and questioning manner. If you disagree with someone else's perspective, just say so and state your reasons in an intelligent, courteous manner.

 

[Beerslayer]

I stated a few days ago that I intended to leave FMT on all this week, but I've decided now to shut it off for a while. I make a modest weekly profit trading manually, but when the profits are only going toward recouping my FMT losses I find that my motivation, and perhaps even my trading decisions, are suffering. I'll continue to monitor posts from those of you who are soldiering on, and I hope that I'll be able to turn it back on before too long.

 

[podberry]

I sent Mark a PM this morning, haven't heard from him yet. He has updated his journal but with no comments as to this terrible trading pattern of late. I guess he treats it a business as usual, I will personally be trading 2% risk from my normal 5% until things pick up

 

[tkbieber]

I sent Mark a PM this morning, haven't heard from him yet. He has updated his journal but with no comments as to this terrible trading pattern of late. I guess he treats it a business as usual, I will personally be trading 2% risk from my normal 5% until things pick up

According to Mark's trading journal the worst month was -10%. So far he is -7% for this month, so until I see it exceeds -10% at the end of the month, nothing unusual and "business as usual".

 

[podberry]

Coral, have you done a comparison backtest of the current 45/35/25/5 against the 38/38/27/5 system ? Sorry I can't remember. I personally like the 1:1 RR of the 38/38/27/5 system. The extra 10 pip loss daily on the new system really hurts when times are tough.

 

[podberry]

If the 38/38/27/5 system give better returns than the current system then I will start trading it Tomorrow (Thurs)

 

[1KP]

I'm using this as a learning experience and I turned the EA off last night and manually grabbed a +10 pips. It's not a lot but until things settle down I'm content with small profits. I would not dismiss the FMT system so quickly but rather adjust as to what is currently going on. Things happen in any business and rolling with the ups and downs is just part of the experience. Giving up is never an option with me. If you look hard enough there are solutions to profit from any situation.

 

[thruster9121]

helpful post mate. Its soo much all about the psychology. FMT aside, I look forward to developing my own manual trading strategy with a similar risk to reward ratio.

I'm not here to bash FMT, as I have been using the system for a few months now - it has been profitable. But once you get to your OWN drawdown limit (whatever % of your account that may be) you have to stop trading that system and evaluate it. You cannot have too much loyalty in this game. The market conditions are now not right for FMT to profit from its indicators. This may change, or it may not.

What will save your bacon? A good risk vs reward strategy - low losses and big wins. You want a method that you can leave to trade while you sleep? Bring up your daily charts and place a miniscule lot on the direction YOU believe the market is going. Keep your stop loss big (100-150 pips) and your TP even bigger! Risk no more than 2% per trade and take profits at more than 4%. Seriously, look at the daily trend, find an entry price and let the trade run for a few days, you will be surprised by how much you can profit and how much you wont even care about losses anymore. Do the maths, even if you only won 33% of your trades, you'd still be in profit if you had a 1:3 or 1:4 risk/reward. Have a quick google search for risk reward in forex! All the best info is out there for free.

I find that I'm no longer getting stressed or feel like I'm gambling using this method. It can easily net you 5% per week.

Hope this helps some people. If you like trading, keep at it and with simple methods you can be very profitable.

 

[podberry]

According to Mark's trading journal the worst month was -10%. So far he is -7% for this month, so until I see it exceeds -10% at the end of the month, nothing unusual and "business as usual".

Yeah, the -10% was achieved over December which is understandable, I think any major DD outside the known quiet months is what is surprising everyone, I remember at the beginning of May we all had great expectations only to have a carpet ripped from underneath us.

 

[helixpt]

According to Mark's trading journal the worst month was -10%. So far he is -7% for this month, so until I see it exceeds -10% at the end of the month, nothing unusual and "business as usual".

Totally agree with you. I really can't agree with the turning off the live account when times like this come and go back to demo, since those periods are also taken in consideration during backtesting.

This is clearly an psychological issue that we must deal with for the benefit of our accounts.

I've been trading for more than 3 years now and during the first two I was consecutively loosing because of "adjusting strategies" as soon as things didn't go my way for a few trades. Then a winning strike came to play as soon as I've turned off my live account and was ready to see compounding profits at the demo platforms.

I'll keep FMT live with the same lots, only considering finding an profitable strategy with a better R:R without damaging the long therm stability of the system in BT.

Take care my friends,

André

 

[coral]

Pretty charts? If you can contemplate the word "perspective", which is what I was looking for in the longer-term charts that I prepared last evening, that is all I was looking for - perspective. By the way, if I went to the considerable trouble of preparing the data for a 99%-data chart from 2007 onward, the trend would be exactly the same, so I won't bother - especially not in response to juvenile comments like the ones from "Too Sexy".

Any chart or factual information I post here is usually done after a bit of thought and sometimes many hours of work that I have already done for myself anyway, and I happily share my work in the same spirit of cooperation that has been shown here. In fact, a good, positive thread, where people base their findings on facts without useless emotional baggage often motivates me to do more. In short, a business-like approach not coming from a gambling mentality and/or unrealistic expectations.

If your (or my) expectations, based on rational prerequisites, have not been met, then we say so, and why, and move on. Some have already done this, or have taken down their risk. They are mature individuals who have encountered their own set limits with this system. Personally, I am not ready just yet to make any changes and am watching my own limits daily.

I am certainly not trying to put any spin on this system. I am not promoting it, and am certainly not bashing it. If it stops working for me, I will say so and why, and move on. I am also not pushing any setting over another. Any given setting is a personal choice based on one's logic and psychology. From very hard lessons in the past, I believe in the old saying "know thyself"; it brings more peace in trading, and life in general.

 

[chrisandrews12]

Hi all,

this a response I got from Mark reference the current run of losses we are experiencing:

Hello Chris,

yes, it seems that the recent performance is not quity shiny. But I personally believe it's just a losing period, that will pass away soon or later.

I don't want to change the settings everytime there are few losses, so if you feel uncomfortable you can take a break for a while and wait untill the performance will come back to "normal" or you can lower your risk.
Best Regards,

Mark Fric
http://www.forexmorningtrade.com

Hope this helps those that are unsure on what to do. I for one have halved my risk, as I believe that Mark is correct, we have to expect drawdowns from time to time.

Regards,

Chris

 

[podberry]

Pretty charts? If you can contemplate the word "perspective", which is what I was looking for in the longer-term charts that I prepared last evening, that is all I was looking for - perspective. By the way, if I went to the considerable trouble of preparing the data for a 99%-data chart from 2007 onward, the trend would be exactly the same, so I won't bother - especially not in response to juvenile comments like the ones from "Too Sexy".

Any chart or factual information I post here is usually done after a bit of thought and sometimes many hours of work that I have already done for myself anyway, and I happily share my work in the same spirit of cooperation that has been shown here. In fact, a good, positive thread, where people base their findings on facts without useless emotional baggage often motivates me to do more. In short, a business-like approach not coming from a gambling mentality and/or unrealistic expectations.

If your (or my) expectations, based on rational prerequisites, have not been met, then we say so, and why, and move on. Some have already done this, or have taken down their risk. They are mature individuals who have encountered their own set limits with this system. Personally, I am not ready just yet to make any changes and am watching my own limits daily.

I am certainly not trying to put any spin on this system. I am not promoting it, and am certainly not bashing it. If it stops working for me, I will say so and why, and move on. I am also not pushing any setting over another. Any given setting is a personal choice based on one's logic and psychology. From very hard lessons in the past, I believe in the old saying "know thyself"; it brings more peace in trading, and life in general.

Well said Coral

Coral, have you done a comparison backtest of the current 45/35/25/5 against the 38/38/27/5 system ? Sorry I can't remember. I personally like the 1:1 RR of the 38/38/27/5 system. The extra 10 pip loss daily on the new system really hurts when times are tough. If the 38/38/27/5 system gives better returns than the current system then I will start trading it Tomorrow (Thurs)

 

[coral]

Hi Pod. I have them but they will be confusing the way they're laid out. However, it will be a valid lesson on compounding if I repeat them in both pips and compounding, say at 5% as an example.

It will take a couple of hours due to the work and interruption here.

Back later.

 

[podberry]

Hi Pod. I have them but they will be confusing the way they're laid out. However, it will be a valid lesson on compounding if I repeat them in both pips and compounding, say at 5% as an example.

It will take a couple of hours due to the work and interruption here.

Back later.

You are a good man - Cheers for your hard work, appreciated !