ForexMorningTrade System

[wiseambitions]

Nice point of view, I suppouse I'm among the adventurous
Really I'm consider myself too conservative, never risk more than 3% per trade. With FMT I risk 2,25% per trade, with a expected return of 6% montly.
Also I never adjust the trades manually, I guess it is because I just do automatic trading, it is good for statistics

Let see what happens next week.

Ok, you're conservative with your risk per trade but adventurous with your settings (if you accept the 65 pip occasional loss). I am currently going back through my trades and potential trades prior to December at which time my settings were giving 80pc success rate, to see which of my losing trades your wider SL settings would have actually saved me

 

[Deatil]

Ok, you're conservative with your risk per trade but adventurous with your settings (if you accept the 65 pip occasional loss). I am currently going back through my trades and potential trades prior to December at which time my settings were giving 80pc success rate, to see which of my losing trades your wider SL settings would have actually saved me

FMT has made a total of 202 pips since August last year to this very present day 30 Jan 2011. That is only equal to 33 pips per month. The very dynamics of this EA (manual system) has changed considerably in the past few months.

All the back testing in the world is not going to make anything better in “real time” a 40 pip stop or a 65 pip is not going to change the fact that we have to understand in “real time” the markets mood.

In December people said “oh it’s the holiday’s” we are now at the end of January and nothing has changed. Some will say “it this or that”, but the simple fact is not many know the reason for the wins that took place or the losses.

Where the wins results of news either from the Asian session or the prior day’s news release that lingered on into the next day or weeks? and was the FMT trade in the same direction of the news out come ? Which resulted in wins, or were the losses counter trend trades like the one we had last week after the UK GDP number 25 January. That drove the GBP/USD down and the next day’s Long trade on the 26 January( counter trend trade lost)

Which after hitting the FMT stop turned right around and went Long in the same direction as the original signal, do you really think it saved some because of the wider stop? Do you really?

Or does your mind tell you it was because additional members of the MPC saw the need for a rate hike, beside Andrew Sentence? And the GBP/USD just rallied up. Will you look back and say it was because of a bigger stop loss that was used when you do the back test?

I say NO, the move happen and took place after the news release and it favored the UK which caused the move, any one who thinks it was because of the bigger stop used is foolish.

What is to say what we saw in December and again in January will not continue forward? Sure again “after the fact” back testing will show you (us) “oh a stop loss of this would have worked”. But in real time what really happen to cause that move or make it continue is all that counts?

My comments are not in ANY form an insult to ANYONE AT ALL!!

 

[JDJD88]

FMT has made a total of 202 pips since August last year to this very present day 30 Jan 2011. That is only equal to 33 pips per month. The very dynamics of this EA (manual system) has changed considerably in the past few months.

Nice job Deatil - logical and clear!
So the question may be...is an "EA", especially a breakout EA, ever the right approach?

When I trade - I watch the vast array of candle behaviors that define "price action" first and use several indicators to help me decide on my entries & exits (that is, in addition to my experimentation, albeit lesser, with EAs as this one). My brain is processing a variety of key factors in a more more complex manner than can ever be accomplished by an EA. Yes, my problem has been my emotions at times, which cause me to exit too soon or enter when I should not have entered - an EA supposedly helps us beat this problem. That is why an EA with both great backtests over extended periods of time - as well as valid "forward tests / actual use - that make a case, seem appealing. FMT originally had appeal for what I thought were these reasons.

But I vacillate - my family members who are professional traders (I have 2), do not use EAs - they watch the charts and decide. And they have better control of their emotions than I - hence their great income - one earns approx. $50K US per week from his home office.

So what do you think? Is any EA worth our time? If so, and if this one may have some value, are there any tweaks you believe may help? If not, what do you recommend?

Your thoughts are most welcome.

 

[wiseambitions]

It is usually a quieter day in here when there is no trade!

However one of the charts I run actually did show the FMT indicators as a long call since 05.15GMT, although Alpari in MT4 did not line up at 06.30. I would not be surprised if a small number of members did get a trade, but it would have kicked them out on standard SL settings.

For my FMT trades at 06.30GMT it puts me
-12 for the whole month at 28TP/40SL inc slippage.

If I had followed 35/40/BE@20 I would have been -20.

40/40 would have given me 0

43/65+BE@20 would have given +128

I am sorry Deatil only achieved 202 since August, my settings yielded that since October, in spite of the bad time around Christmas.

My inclination favours conservative exit settings in these difficult times

 

[felixmsr]

Nice point of view, I suppouse I'm among the adventurous
Really I'm consider myself too conservative, never risk more than 3% per trade. With FMT I risk 2,25% per trade, with a expected return of 6% montly.
Also I never adjust the trades manually, I guess it is because I just do automatic trading, it is good for statistics

Let see what happens next week.

I guess I'm even more adventurous risking 3% with FMT
And I agree, what's the point with an EA if you need to adjust trades manually?

 

[PipZombie]

IBFX - No trade
Forex.com Long for -40 pips.

 

[Deatil]

It is usually a quieter day in here when there is no trade!

However one of the charts I run actually did show the FMT indicators as a long call since 05.15GMT, although Alpari in MT4 did not line up at 06.30. I would not be surprised if a small number of members did get a trade, but it would have kicked them out on standard SL settings.

For my FMT trades at 06.30GMT it puts me
-12 for the whole month at 28TP/40SL inc slippage.

If I had followed 35/40/BE@20 I would have been -20.

40/40 would have given me 0

43/65+BE@20 would have given +128

I am sorry Deatil only achieved 202 since August, my settings yielded that since October, in spite of the bad time around Christmas.

My inclination favours conservative exit settings in these difficult times

wiseambitions

Maybe you are confused? The stats I gave on this forum are the OFFICIAL results on the FMT website.

So do not mix your results with those posted on FMT website, which is what drives sales and results that many user would have achieved. As for my own results lets just say FMT total trade pip gains are at least a min for me on a monthly basis with a max yearly draw down of 17%, and just leave it at that.

 

[wiseambitions]

wiseambitions

Maybe you are confused? The stats I gave on this forum are the OFFICIAL results on the FMT website.

So do not mix your results with those posted on FMT website, which is what drives sales and results that many user would have achieved. As for my own results lets just say FMT total trade pip gains are at least a min for me on a monthly basis with a max yearly draw down of 17%, and just leave it at that.

Thats good then, I did notice sadly FMT official results, by trading in December did give up a couple prior months' gains (and there might have also been a profitable day missed 31/12/2010).

We all either leave the EAs to do their own thing, in which case personal results vary due to broker differences, and the occasional breakdown or missed hit. Otherwise we trade when we are at the platform, not all sessions, and may have our own reasons to close out trades early. And of course we may have our own exit settings.

I notice the settings I go with would have achieved +680 since August, even including trading Christmas, and possibly just over 850 pips for having stayed away 2 and a half weeks. It would be wonderful if this performance gets restored.

 

[hammy66]

FMT for me today:

6:00 start, No Trade
6:15 start, No Trade
6:30 start, buy trade hit TP +33 pips (50/30/20/5)

for today total +33 pips profit...

 

[PipZombie]

FMT for me today:

6:00 start, No Trade
6:15 start, No Trade
6:30 start, buy trade hit TP +33 pips (50/30/20/5)

for today total +33 pips profit...

Your stop of 60+ is proving out right now....the direction has been ok but the 40 pip stoploss has been breached...

 

[Adamus]

wiseambitions

Maybe you are confused? The stats I gave on this forum are the OFFICIAL results on the FMT website.

So do not mix your results with those posted on FMT website, which is what drives sales and results that many user would have achieved. As for my own results lets just say FMT total trade pip gains are at least a min for me on a monthly basis with a max yearly draw down of 17%, and just leave it at that.

Thats good then, I did notice sadly FMT official results, by trading in December did give up a couple prior months' gains (and there might have also been a profitable day missed 31/12/2010).

We all either leave the EAs to do their own thing, in which case personal results vary due to broker differences, and the occasional breakdown or missed hit. Otherwise we trade when we are at the platform, not all sessions, and may have our own reasons to close out trades early. And of course we may have our own exit settings.

I notice the settings I go with would have achieved +680 since August, even including trading Christmas, and possibly just over 850 pips for having stayed away 2 and a half weeks. It would be wonderful if this performance gets restored.

Would you guys kill this to-and-fro argument? It's obvious to me that you are not arguing about the same thing, so you will never agree.

The FMT system can be used in a totally mechanical fashion and that means that the trader did backtests and decided that it's got an edge, regardless of market conditions. Normally the trader would have a cut-off point in terms of trading capital, e.g. 50% of starting equity, at which point trading that system is stopped. Market conditions may change, but trading carries on regardless unless losses bring it down to that point. It has to be done like this for the trader to maintain the mental strength to withstand drawdowns on the account.

If further analysis including more information, more data or more rigorous statistical analysis shows that the original evalution of the system's edge was wrong, then the trader can also pull the plug, but only if the second analysis was better than the first, and only if the statistical thresholds for the various measures are kept the same or improved logically.

And FMT can be used as input by a discretionary trader who could be using any other indicator or fundamental analysis to base decisions on, determining on a signal by signal basis whether the FMT system had got it right or not with reference to parallel occuring price action, news events etc.

 

[hammy66]

Your stop of 60+ is proving out right now....the direction has been ok but the 40 pip stoploss has been breached...

well I'm only using SL=50 for 6:30 and 6:15 start times, I wouldn't go higher than that.

but helped me today get a TP instead of SL...:cheesy:

cheers !

 

[Tenapenny]

Just got home. Nice to see +43 pips profit. (65/43/20)

 

[ihelfman]

Just got home. Nice to see +43 pips profit. (65/43/20)

Has anyone backtested these settings long term?

My good data only runs from 1-1-08-10-19-10. During those dates. these settings yield about $7,000 in profits on Turbo, compared to about $16,000 for 40/35/20, on my backtests. So far, I've never been able to beat Mark Fric's settings on my limited data.

 

[deserteagle]

Just got home. Nice to see +43 pips profit. (65/43/20)

Lucky you I got No Trade signal today (Alpari UK).

 

[ws1234]

Does anyone know if Mark is still on holiday? His last update or post on this thread that I could find was back from December 11, 2010. And I notice his update for his official results page is a few days behind also. I hope all is well with him.

Edit: will be interested to hear his viewpoint on the status of FMT either here or from his monthly email update, which I hope we will receive soon for the month just ended.

 

[Icepop]

Buy today with Alpari uk. A strange market with a spike of -20 pips on the 6.15 candle. I hope for a win today.

 

[GumRai]

Buy today with Alpari uk. A strange market with a spike of -20 pips on the 6.15 candle. I hope for a win today.

There was an 8 pip range with SLM on the 6-15 candle and 9 pips with FXPro.
Alpari are playing games again, I would never open an account with them!

 

[wiseambitions]

this one doesnt feel a good trade. £ was perhaps a little overbought overnight? still rules are rules and all ea's would have picked a long trade in FMT

 

[Cobber]

this one doesnt feel a good trade. £ was perhaps a little overbought overnight? still rules are rules and all ea's would have picked a long trade in FMT

Out of this trade at breakeven.

News in 25 minutes this trade is now a bet on the news. The news might be but I have decided to keep out of major news events, been burnt too many times.