ForexMorningTrade System

[wiseambitions]

Pursuant to the manual; "...our trading time is 5:30am GMT time."

And, "For indicator values, you should check the chart at a close of 5:15am candle at 5:30am."

I know there are various tweaks, but it appears to me that the entry we're talking about was a few bars late if being strictly based on the manual.

Have a look at the author's trading journal

http://www.forexmorningtrade.com/trading-journal/november-2010/


I have found his starting prices this month have always equated to what I have seen from my broker at 6.30. Else I'd beg your pardon

 

[JRJ]

OK, my statistics in the last 100 trades at my broker price (excluding days where no signal was usable). Obviously I have not been a member all this time. Using 35TP and 40SL, and not resetting SL to break even)

of 100 days (going back to early May) 72 winning trades

of the last 50, 36 winners

of the last 25, 17 winners

of the last 10, 6 winners

of the last 5 2 winners and 3 loses

Can you say how many of the 'not winners' were able to be stopped out at break even (by moving the stop once 20 pips had been reached) and which ran straight(ish) for a loss?

 

[Deatil]

Pursuant to the manual; "...our trading time is 5:30am GMT time."

And, "For indicator values, you should check the chart at a close of 5:15am candle at 5:30am."

I know there are various tweaks, but it appears to me that the entry we're talking about was a few bars late if being strictly based on the manual.

No the trade time is 6:30 am London time ALL year long , even when GMT is off by 1 hr from the London time. That is why the NEW PDF says 6:30 am London.

This has been already address in this tread weeks ago with the new time changes

 

[aspex]

Nice one +34
Worth the wait.

 

[jacktpickle]

How annoying is that ? tagged the stop then hit TP within 2 candles !!

 

[Flourish]

GU , -40 pips
EU, +35 pips

 

[Tenapenny]

Are you sure you should have been in that trade? The entry is at 0530 GMT (non-extended version). Signal being based on the 0515 bar.

As an example, with the recent daylight savings time change, FXDD went from being +3 GMT to +2. So for some brokers you would have recently changed the start time to keep taking trades according to the manual's recommended time at 0530 GMT.

Might want to verify this but I believe the above is true. In this case you were in a few bars too late, price went to 1.5946 (14 pips or so from your entry) and reversed.

And as you can see, an entry on the close of the 0515 bar at 1.5906 would have netted 40 pips to the high of 1.5946, had there been a signal at the close of the 0515 bar.

We're not going through all this again are we? FMT opens at 0630 London time whether or not London is at the time on GMT or BST. At present we are on GMT and right now it's about 0900 so the trade should have been took 2 1/2 hours ago at 0630 GMT!

 

[wiseambitions]

And now the price is soaring! Up 35 and more from where we started 6.30
It was the SL which killed it for us

 

[Jon4FX]

GU tp +35 - EU + 40

 

[Tenapenny]

And now the price is soaring! Up 35 and more from where we started 6.30
It was the SL which killed it for us

Yes, I've traded the re-trace and got back the 40 pips I lost and just letting it give me a bit more.

 

[Deatil]

Tonight is a good example of when FMT doesn't make a trade because the rules are not exact, you can see here how my EA kicked in and made a sell getting me a smooth 31 pips. :clap:

tkbieber

Did you modified your Stop loss? I see today's Nov 18 trade, you enter at the same price as others at 1.59318 at 6:30 am London time .But your EA that you modified exceed the "hard" 40 pip stop loss by 3 to 4 pips ( 43 to 44 pips instead of the 40)

 

[mark_wilson]

No the trade time is 6:30 am London time ALL year long , even when GMT is off by 1 hr from the London time. That is why the NEW PDF says 6:30 am London.

This has been already address in this tread weeks ago with the new time changes

Okay, thanks Deatil.

 

[wiseambitions]

Can you say how many of the 'not winners' were able to be stopped out at break even (by moving the stop once 20 pips had been reached) and which ran straight(ish) for a loss?

Sorry I haven't done the detailed analysis which would be required. It would take me a long time, although I do have prices by the one minute tick going back many months from which the work could be done. It is obviously painstakingly tedious to do so!

My most recent observations just over the last 4 weeks are that resetting the SL saves a loss every time, but it prevents TP being achieved on about half of those occasions, so the end result in pips gained over a month is not vastly dissimilar to just setting stop and limit after entry and letting the trade run its course.

 

[bluedancer]

Sorry I haven't done the detailed analysis which would be required. It would take me a long time, although I do have prices by the one minute tick going back many months from which the work could be done. It is obviously painstakingly tedious to do so!

My most recent observations just over the last 4 weeks are that resetting the SL saves a loss every time, but it prevents TP being achieved on about half of those occasions, so the end result in pips gained over a month is not vastly dissimilar to just setting stop and limit after entry and letting the trade run its course.

How does it prevent TP from being reached? do you mean you it goes to BE or you reduced the TP?

 

[wiseambitions]

How does it prevent TP from being reached? do you mean you it goes to BE or you reduced the TP?

It prevents TP being reached in the following example.

1) You enter a long trade at 1.6000, with TP 1.6035, SL, 1.5960

2) Price touches 1.6020, you reset SL now to 1.6000

3) Price retraces. Touches 1.5990 which is below 1.6000, so you get stopped out

4) Price now recovers to 1.6036. If you had not adjusted the SL to BE you would have taken profit. But you're out of the trade so you missed the opportunity.

This situation seems to happen in about half of the cases recently where SL would have been reset to BE due to 20 pips profit being attainable

 

[jacquespienaar]

42Pips Kabam! Don't understand though as my TP was set to 35 - not that I'm complaining!!!

 

[Flourish]

Should we stick to the original 40TP and 40SL?

 

[bluedancer]

Should we stick to the original 40TP and 40SL?

That's a good question. today a 42 pip SL would have given me a 40 pip win! I was a little slow on my analysis today and did not catch on quick enough so I let the EA do it, otherwise I would have opened that stop by an extra 10 pips. It is not an easy call since who wants a bigger loss? It looks like a few people are using 44 pip stops since slippage is happening and also some brokers have wider spreads.

Also we have to realize that the ideal trade time actually varies and we use a set trade time. Today the ideal trade would have been an hour earlier, which would have given us a lower stop and a win. Some days the ideal entry is later, but this can only be seen in hindsight! which is too bad!

My next step is to possibly adjust the sl and tp for what shows as an ideal entry time.

 

[felixmsr]

42Pips Kabam! Don't understand though as my TP was set to 35 - not that I'm complaining!!!

Woa, cool! Congratulations.

Strange that it didn't take profit at 35 though?

 

[Flourish]

I've backtested recently with the latest version on 40tp and 40SL from year 2008 to 2010 and it seems to be more profitable without BE. Alpari can only generate backtesting results with 90% modelling quality. I have yet to backtest with oanda tick data as it is very time consuming.