I couldn't agree more....
I return to the thought that the best thing to do is decide on a decent setting and stick with it. I think if I were to analyse each month's best set and use it for the next month the end result would be worse than any other!
Here are a few facts to support the 'leave it alone' theory:
191 trades for the last exactly 12 months:
FMT1 40/40 +1880
by putting in BE @ 20 you'd have 1800
FMT2 35/40 with BE @ 20 +1685
if you ignored break even resets, +1665 (Hey where's the big difference?)
10/40 +1260, with 93% winning trades
28/40 +1812
20/40 +1180 (quite a useless setting really!)
so at the end of 12 months is there really a meaningful difference between a set that gets you 1665 and one that gets you 1880? I say not. It's only the difference between 2 or 3 trades going to TP instead of SL
I tested this theory and added one more setting: Based upon Hammy's settings of 45 SL, and 25 BE and the optimal trading time of 6:15 and 6:30, I backtested 45SL, 25 TP with no BE. Used TMT to trade between 6:15 - 6:30 so only 1 SL would be risked. Changed the ADR filter to False so that basically it trades the same as FMT, except you have a variable trading time of 6:15 or 6:30, and only 1 SL risk.
The 45 SL/25 TP beat all of the above trading times by over $1000 with less drawdown. I tested between Jan. 16 - March 26, and then March 26 - today, changing the time for DST on March 26th.
I tested with 6% risk:
40/40 w/20BE +5 $2594
35/40 w/20 BE +5 $2448
10/40 $1221
28/40 $2424
25/45 $3623
20/40 $2050
Trading has changed significantly between January and today.
40/40 (the lowest earnings from March 26 to today) only earned $375 (if you traded everyday).
Compared 25/45 (the highest earnings from March 26 to today) with $1207.
If you had started out with 40/40 in January and switched to 25/45 March 26th, you would have earned close ($3426) but not more than 45/25.
The way I see it is to change your strategy when the market changes rather than sticking with the same old strategy. That's why EA's are updated periodically and they are the ones that work, compared to EA's that aren't updated and end up as losers. Mark's settings were updated because the market has changed.
Anyway, my 2 cents worth.
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