ForexMorningTrade System

[jimmc]

Hello everybody, my first day here so not a good start. Figured after a loss yesterday there'd be a better chance of a win today

(wish I was on a micro account !)

 

[wiseambitions]

Just a quick thought - has anyone made a rule to trade FMT only when the FMT indicated trade is in the same direction of the longer term trend (lets say taken from the H4 scale.) I'd be interested to hear from anyone who has done analysis on this. I guess you would have a lot fewer trades, but more successes? Any thoughts?

Philip.

I think a useful bit of research would be to determine a relationship between the direction of breakout at opening time and the 63hr exponential moving average. Prior to finding FMT I was trading long if the price was above the 63hr EMA and short if it was below. Success rate was reasonably good but I didn't know what exit points to go for. Therefore FMT was better for me, however today is another day when FMT said go short whereas the 63Hour EMA system would have said go long and would have been right. I don't know where I got 63 as a setting, but it seemed fairly reliable.

 

[Mrs Market]

I don't know where I got 63 as a setting, but it seemed fairly reliable.

So Wise - would you use the 63 on a 1hr chart and 252 on a 15 minute?

 

[trader578]

I have learned my lesson about trading during the first week of January. I am taking the rest of the week off, and in the future I won't be trading between approx Dec15 - Jan10.
Good luck to all who keep trading this week - you may need it.

 

[rjus]

very bad result for these few weeks.

 

[wiseambitions]

So Wise - would you use the 63 on a 1hr chart and 252 on a 15 minute?

Yes that's about right, 63 would need multiplying by 4.

Google for "63 ema" and you'll find several references. And more than one person claiming to be the inventor of the strategy! I struggle with the logic over a 2 1/2 day timeframe for the data, (60 hours is 2.5 days) but if it works hey ho! I am not giving up on FMT yet though! If it delivers me 1500 pips this year I shall be very happy, if it gives me 2000 then I'll be ecstatic.

 

[wiseambitions]

very bad result for these few weeks.

The following results are an amalgamation of Mark's published figures then mine once I started with FMT

Of the last 25 trades, 40% wins
of all the last 50 trades 56% wins
of all the last 75 trades 63% wins
of all the last 100 trades 63% wins
of all the last 125 trades (starting early May) 66% wins#
(using 40 then 35TP, and 40SL ignoring BE resets)

The very recent performance for anyone who had continued trading during the holiday period (I stopped but counted the outcome in those results) has noticeably dragged down the long term track record. Presumably the same observation would have been made this time last year.

Nevertheless, if you started early May 2010, and invested 10000 and compounded your gains, with 2% risk per trade, you'd have done 125 trades and now have grown your account 75% in spite of recent drawdowns.
At 5% risk per trade, you would have added 300%
At 10% risk per trade, you would have multiplied your account by 11.8
At 20% risk per trade, you'd still not have blown it up, and would have multiplied your account by 58, but you would have lost four million (85 percent of your highest balance) in the last month! (Nevertheless that order for a private jet might need to be stopped)

 

[phn73]

Without resorting to EMA's a look at the H4 chart suggests an uptrend since approx 28th Dec. This gave me an idea - what if you just traded on the 15 min chart as per FMT rules but taking the signal from the direction of the H4 trend instead of the FMT signal, and using same SL and TP and entry time as FMT? What would happen then?!?!? Has anyone tried or backtested this idea?

 

[PipZombie]

Without resorting to EMA's a look at the H4 chart suggests an uptrend since approx 28th Dec. This gave me an idea - what if you just traded on the 15 min chart as per FMT rules but taking the signal from the direction of the H4 trend instead of the FMT signal, and using same SL and TP and entry time as FMT? What would happen then?!?!? Has anyone tried or backtested this idea?

We have did a lot of backtesting in this forum. I have not looked at this idea but I will take a look at it from the period of Oct 1 through Dec 31. What I would like to say is that so far all of our ideas filter out both the good and the bad trades with no real improvement on the system. This system is based on the london open which statistically when Mark's Indicators give us a bias to buy or sell have proven to be profitable. We are not really trend trading with this strategy but rather momentum trading. We are going with the most recent flow as of 6:30 AM london time. All ideas are needed as they have merit and do lead to good ideas. Thanks for the idea.

 

[PipZombie]

Without resorting to EMA's a look at the H4 chart suggests an uptrend since approx 28th Dec. This gave me an idea - what if you just traded on the 15 min chart as per FMT rules but taking the signal from the direction of the H4 trend instead of the FMT signal, and using same SL and TP and entry time as FMT? What would happen then?!?!? Has anyone tried or backtested this idea?

before i look at a backtest of this idea, could you explain your mechanical way of identifying a trend on the 4hr as this can be ambiguous sometimes...i.e. above or below a certain moving average etc..for buy or sell..if we are just visually looking at the 4hr chart with no mechanical way we are being subjective and not mechanical.

 

[ihelfman]

I have learned my lesson about trading during the first week of January. I am taking the rest of the week off, and in the future I won't be trading between approx Dec15 - Jan10.
Good luck to all who keep trading this week - you may need it.

I am not trading the EA until January 17th. But will trade manually with TMT on the 10th.
I made a note on my digital calendar to trade in the opposite direction of the signal next year, from the second week of December to the second week of January.

 

[phn73]

before i look at a backtest of this idea, could you explain your mechanical way of identifying a trend on the 4hr as this can be ambiguous sometimes...i.e. above or below a certain moving average etc..for buy or sell..if we are just visually looking at the 4hr chart with no mechanical way we are being subjective and not mechanical.

Hello there Pipzombie,

This was just a "5 minute theory" based on a visual interpretation of the H4 chart.

I think for a trending market it may have some merit, but for changeable or flat markets it would be very difficult and perhaps wouldn't make much sense. As you said, everyone has their own way of drawing trendlines...


Best wishes,


Philip.

 

[hammy66]

I was going to start my 2011 trading with FMT this morning, but I usually wait for 2 winning trades in the year before starting just to confirm that market is ready for FMT strategy, so I'm waiting for at least 2 trades to hit TP=30, looks like next week now for me ?

cheers !

 

[mudder1310]

For me, -40 GU, BE for +5 on EU.

 

[megamuel]

Was doing ok until Dec 13th, 7 losses in a row since then. I stopped trading for a bit but started again yesterday. Hope I can get back to my starting balance at least!

 

[Lady Forex]

Was it this bad last December. I have seen total stats but not detailed trades.

I just looked at the stats again. Actually, last year was worse. It was -200 pips, this year -177.

 

[RedGuerrilla]

'Live' Accounts:

01-05-2011, FMT 4.2, Short/Loss, FXSolutions, 1.5547, 1.5589, -42.0
My stats since 11-08-2010: 8 No Trades, 9 Break Evens, 15 Losses, 11 Profits, Total: -231 pips
Pips include slippage, using standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP

01-05-2011, FMT 4.2, Short/Loss, IBFX, 1.55472, 1.55884, -41.2
My stats since 01-04-2010: 0 No Trades, 0 Break Evens, 2 Loss, 0 Profits, Total: -81.5 pips
Pips include slippage, using standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP



Demo Accounts:

01-05-2011, FMT 4.2, Short/Loss at non-dealing desk brokers:
PFG Best, 1.55467, 1.55880, -41.3
FXCM, 1.55467, 1.55878, -41.1
Alpari(US), 1.55471, 1.55877, -40.6
FOREX.com, 1.55472, 1.55877, -40.5
FXDD, 1.55455, 1.55865, -41.0
MB Trading, 1.55473, 1.55877, -40.4

 

[tkbieber]

Hi,

Would you mind sharing what other EAs do you use on the same account and would you recommend them ?

Thanks in advance

Sure, I use FMT and Turbo. I also use GPS. I just got it last week and so far getting 5-10 pips a day. Too soon to recommend it though as when it goes neg 88 pips, it will leverage 5 times more then your original to "try" to get it back. It's worked in the past but one never knows I suppose, when it won't make up the first loss and have two very bad losses. Makes for a very bad day.

 

[wiseambitions]

I wonder how GPS arrived at a SL 88 and whether it always succeeds when leveraging 5 times more on the reversal?

-----
On a different tack completely, not an EA, but I saw mention the other day here of the QQE indicator which can be added to metatrader (it's not standard). It looks quite interesting on a 1hr chart and seems to avoid a lot of the whipsaw which befalls other systems. For example, whereas today FMT got us all wrong by tipping us out at 40SL, QQE said stay in the trade. QQE had signalled short since 19.00 Tuesday like FMT did to us at 06.30 Weds, and in spite of the rise around 08.00, it didn't indicate to quit yet, and by staying in the trade it might have given us 80 pips at its lowest point mid pm 6 or 7 hours later. At the time of writing now, (almost 22.00GMT) it's still saying stay short, but the market may just be on the turn.

 

[Mrs Market]

I wonder how GPS arrived at a SL 88 and whether it always succeeds when leveraging 5 times more on the reversal?

Wise - I saw this relevant comment on another blog. The owners as you know have shown their results on a live account, but see last sentence of this post

QUOTE
I strongly advise taking a close look at the trades. When I backtested GPS:
>
> (1) on Oct. 12 on EURUSD it came within 1 pip of blowing up: it hit the -88 pips, went short and only touched the short target price (+19 at 1.3776 at 09:50) before reversing and going long again. This is on GPS's own tracking statement.
>
> (2) on Nov. 12 it DID blow up the account - after hitting the -88 pips and then going short, PA didn't go south long enough to 19 pips before heading north again and never looked back.

What makes this of special concern is that GPS doesn't show taking a trade on Nov. 12 on its tracking statement, but when I backtested the robot, it did trade on this day!

end of quote


Of course we don't know that the statement made above that the account was blown up is true - it would have cost 440 + 88 pips so they may well have survived, but if anyone has the ability to check the missing trade it could be helpful.