Forex Trading - November 2003

[darktone]

Struggled to catch the move on E/$ today still long @1.1869 at market. Was watching for a break south all day that never came then watched as it started to wards resistance @1.1540/60 with a view to sell, didn't set limits to sell because it was going at some pace!

LOL i can remember thinking "Hmmm looks like were testing re......Fxxx mee!" then scrambling to get a position. it felt like simpson trading! :O

I was totally unprepared for a break north like that, not good as it was the same inflexibility that made me miss the trip up from the 1.1560 break :O ahh well.

So where now, we've seen some big numbers go today and clear sky above, remorse or rally? A range man could argue the case for 1.2140 for starting target area perhaps.

 

[jamus]

Yeah today was one of those very good days if you catch the trend...I tried to take advantage of the breakout towards the all time high, bought at 1.1911 but got stopped at 1.1921 for only 10 pips, when it subsequently turned around from 1.1956. Should have just let it ride. Anyway thats it for me today

 

[options]

Just follow the price and see where it takes us. Looks like it may roll over here at .1950 or just be pausing for breath again. My view, if pushed, is for a roll back down. But I let the price/chart tell me what to do, and try not to predict. Fatal more times then not as you found out today.

One way to trade the narrow range/breakout is to place limit orders. one buy above and one sell below. Far enough outside the range to avoid being triggered by market flow. When it breaks, manage that one. Either cancel other one or leave it in place in case of about turns, but be quick to cancel the original entry.

 

[Newtron Bomb]

options
Adding to your wisdom, i would normally have waited for a pullback to enter after the BO on eur$ 60min charts but i wanted to go off and do a few things so i placed a stop order.

Luck favoured me today and it is also a good example to show that you dont always get a pullback after a BO.... checking multiple time frames may help overcome this and you get a few entries highlighted on the smaller time frames, and you get to see a fuller picture too

Regards
NB

 

[options]

Agree. NB. I too favour the 2nd charge.

Taking further, Dt's view of a break south. Looking at today's chart there is a 2nd push down before the about turn. Giving the impression of a down day.

I went long at the bottom of that move but came out when it began to flatline as I thought it was going to become a sideways day and not push through the open.

If only charts did what we think they will do eh!

It was just by luck that I caught the move just after it began, but sadly got out too early and reversed because of dodgy charts. That spoilt an otherwise perfect day, but managed to give the old heart some unnecessary exercise.

 

[darktone]

cheers options/NB

Im trying to keep my outlook on E/$ based around the main S/R numbers. I know its tempting to trade the noise within but it takes someone better than me to do it .

My bearish outlook was shaken when 1.1560 was broken north. I was prepared with stops to take profit at 1.1560 from 1.1839 but a flexible trader would have had it set up to be long at the same price. I can only think it was fear of pulling the trigger or undue that bearishness stopped me taking a position.

Im happy to let E/$ run for the while stopping flat. this time however ill be prepared to sell on break of support or to add long if new support is tested. :cheesy:

Any ideas for trading something like $/swis gratefully received,im crap at interpreting indicators such as RSI/MACD/Stochs etc so maybe MA based perhaps? ideas on how to run stops very welcome feel like im nearly there but just dont feel totally comfortable with i yet.

cheers
DT

 

[options]

Darktone.

NB's original opening thread gave a trading example that was basic, but works. Adapt that to suit your style.

Your earlier post.
"Struggled to catch the move on E/$ today still long @1.1869 at market. Was watching for a break south all day that never came then watched as it started to wards resistance @1.1540/60 with a view to sell, didn't set limits to sell because it was going at some pace!

LOL i can remember thinking "Hmmm looks like were testing re......Fxxx mee!" then scrambling to get a position. it felt like simpson trading! :O

I was totally unprepared for a break north like that, not good as it was the same inflexibility that made me miss the trip up from the 1.1560 break :O ahh well."

That is all down to your preconceptions of where you think the market should go and you brain is telling you to only trade that direction. So before you realise it you've missed the express.
Don't concern yourself too much at this point, it just highlights where you are trading wise. The amount of times I did that while trading futures would be embarrassing for me to tell you. You sit and know it will turn your way, then before you realise it you are off the mark by £1000 or so. Then you pray to your lucky stars that you didn't put the trade on because you were hesitating and waiting for it to come to your entry point.

How do you get over that stage?
The simple answer is don't have an opinion by trying to second guess the market. Let it lead you by the hand. Trust your charts, TA and S&R points and follow the path of least resistance. Runs last longer than on other instruments, so your next problem will be jumping ship too early.

Glad your crap at interpreting indicators. You don't need them.
I had a great one for about 6 months it was infallible as to where the market was going to go. Prob was it was sometimes early by half an hour or so. Then one day it was early by an hour and a half.
Cost me a lot of money that. Why? because I put a lot of faith in the indicator and not where the real infallible indicator is: The price bars themselves. That takes a bit of understanding as well though.

$/swiss. Don't trade it; all I need is one market to make enough money. Have found that different markets require slightly different
approaches.

Stops: Rarely use them while watching the screen. If I am happy with a profit I will put a stop in to protect it. If I leave the screen A stop 20/30/40 away will do. Generally, the more in profit, the wider the stop if running the trade. Or just exit the trade when you want out.
If it goes a few points against you at the start. Dump it. Your timing is off. That is very hard to do. So set a wider stop and practise getting out yourself. Then cancel the wide stop.

This is how I trade/have traded for the most part. It might not suit you or anyone else, but may give you a few ideas.

 

[darktone]

cheers O

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Morning folks
Staying with trend, stops moved to low of the day.

Options couldnt agree with you more... indicators aren't necessary. I do use 2 but have never taken my lead off them and this trade was taken without the use of them.

I usually use a standard 30 pip stop unless the charts tell me different 35 is the most ive ever had to use.

fwiw i usually plan to make three trades long, short or wait for new info and sometimes several scenario's as to what could happen on every entry so that if something unexpected happens i would at least have a plan to trade it.

Happy trading today

NB

 

[Zenda]

08:47 EUR/USD: Kashmir and Taiwan Tensions Weigh on Beleaguered USD] London,
November 19: Decent-size buying interest is expected around 1.1925, and the
European morning pullback to current levels of 1.1950 is expected to be just
temporary.
There are so many USD negatives at play, at present. Geopolitical tensions
continue to weigh on the USD. According to the BBC, China has issued a "risk of
war" warning" to Taiwan if he launches a formal independence bid. Meanwhile,
Indian army officials said that Islamic militants attacked an army headquarters
in Indian controlled Kashmir.
Geopolitical worries, i.e. the second anniversary of 9/11, the breakdown in the
Mid East peace "roadmap", escalating violence in Iraq and North Korean nuclear
rhetoric have all been major factors behind the USD"s broad fall and 10% loss in
value against the euro since early September 3 (1.0765).
Technically, daily studies are biased higher, albeit overbought. A break above
initial resistance at 1.1975/80 (November 18 & 19 session highs) could result in
a pick up in momentum and further gains towards 1.1995 (October 20 1998 high)
and 1.2150 (October 16 1998 high). Initial (hourly) support comes in at 1.1940.
-- [email protected].

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Forex scandle

FBI agents have arrested about 48 Wall Street foreign exchange professionals in a sting targeting several top firms thought to have defrauded small retail investors of millions of dollars....

Full details here

Interesting to see a scandal in forex and no big crash happening, the stock market usually drops a clanger at the mention of one.

Regards
NB

 

[darktone]

I've been looking at running wide stops (say 40-50points) when doing intraday. it might be the way to go but having them more as 'disaster avoidance' rather than a normal stop. and exit manually if you consider yourself wrong. The thing i found when i was trying to trade fibs (breaks + S/R it didn't work out lol ) with normal stops say 15-30 pips Your loss is guaranteed if your wrong and it hurts if you rack up to 2 or 3 of these. At least if you exit manually you have the chance to minimise your loss or get out flat (maybe even a tiny profit :cheesy: ).

Theres a guy called stevet who says he doesn't use stops at all which i can understand but couldn't agree with completely, just for the fact that the market can steamroller you at any second and for whatever reason you may not be able to close (internet connection/being locked out/gone to the toilet . At least with a wide stop you would have a safety net that would save from getting killed were the unexpected to happen, i guess the only only thing to guard against would be the rose tinted 'it'll come back'attitude if one develops .

Remember some time ago reading about this guys trading experiences and he was saying how his performance increased when a 'maximum loss' strategy was put in place. ie if i lose X amount of points today the screen goes off and i play golf .
I know its tempting chase a losing day. but ive been on the wrong end of that also when your racking up losses the mind isn't in a fit state to make a calm decision most of the time.

 

[Newtron Bomb]

DT
Those are precisely the reasons i use protective stop orders. If i want to go and read a book for a while, like am going to do now then i can leave my trading screen and have a text message to notify me of anything that needs doing.

A maximum loss for the day and stop is a good idea or x number of loosing trades. I'll take a break after three loser's on the trot and decide if i should continue trading that particular market.
The way i trade now is that i can trade and play golf if i wanted at the same time

Taking regular breaks is necessary to keep the mind clear

closed eur +120 gbp +70
Speak to you all later

Regards
NB

 

[Zenda]

Setting Entry Orders GB/$ Cable

Having got it wrong for a couple of days - decided to revert to an old strategy I havn't tried for a while - Setting Entry levels. I decided to place an order to enter at 1.700 at approx 9.00 am UK time wth a stop loss preset at 1.7040 - As you can see this has kicked in for a nice trade. showing profit (at the moment) of 23 pips - just moved the stop to 1.6999 to lock in a hefty 1 pip profit the charts show there could be some way to go so I am taking the budgie out for some training (she's on Barrel Rolls at the moment.)

I call this strategy (Patience) -

P.S. must not try to get to clever - It makes sense to go back to basics occasionally - Its nice to know that the FBI have arrested 40 forex traders today - Thats my excuse for my recent poor performance

 

[neil]

Just seen the chart for Yen between 9.30am and 10am on 5 min chart.

Whipped short to long in two bars...glad I wasn't trading it and glad I always use a stop loss

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Yawn.....

patiently waiting to re-enter eur$ @ 1.1930 and gbp$ @ 1.7010 or better

Orders pending, off to see the Matrix

happy trading
NB

 

[turtle trader]

Hi NB

your entry targets have been hit - are you in or waiting for a pullback (which looks like it might be happening right now - must dash!)

Turtle

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Hi TT

Yes I left stops in while i was at the flix (twas a good movie ) they got pulled overnight.
We've already seen a move up and a pullback so order is pending in eur and gbp has filled @1.17030

Slightly higher than if i'd had left orders in overnight but then gbp would have been
50 pips against me when i awoke and eur up to 30 pips against me.

As it stands I slept like a baby, slept in and ive not had to close two loosing trades first thing in the trading day.

Regards
NB

 

[turtle trader]

I wondered whether you left entry orders in o/night - thought probably not as it just exposes you to unmanageable risk.

I was using a similar entry trigger to either go long Euro/$ or short $/CHF (both behave similarly, although in opposite directions, as mentioned elsewhere). Ended up going with Euro/$ as it made a higher high just after 8am, whereas $/CHF failed to make a lower low at that time. As it turns out $/CHF managed to breakout to the downside before the current consolidation, whereas Euro/$ has barely moved

Am now looking at a possible move down thru 10900 on $/Y to indicate lower high & maybe further downside

Turtle

 

[Newtron Bomb]

The 60min chf$ could give a further short oportunity and teh daily chart highlights this pretty welle