Excellent thread! Ten brains are much better than 1. I think we should all post alot more regularly on here (personally I try but need others to join in discussions). Interesting that pretty much everyone is bearish on EUR/USD, even at current levels. For what it's worth, I am staying out the market for now. I am only a part timer, have a salaried full time job, but follow things closely. I think the mark of a good trader is to know when not to trade as well as when to trade, and for now I can't see how anyone can predict direction.
Technical analysis is great, but let's think of the fundamentals here for a minute. USD economy seems to be in good shape (i.e. rapidly improving) right now, but arguably it's all priced into the mkt already. The eurozone offers higher interest rates and is itself an improving story, although arguably is in slightly more trouble (see Germany). The US govt (and Euro central bank) have both said they are happy with current valuations, and will not be interfering with the floating currencies. The real players in this mkt are the Asians, who hold tens if not hundreds of billions of $ in assets such as US treasuries. With the US economy an improving story and yields rising, they may begin to sell their USD assets to avoid mounting losses, which will depreciate the USD against other currencies. Many forecasters are saying the EUR/USD will be back to 1.19/1.20 by the end of the year. Indeed it has dropped from 1.186 to 1.145 in pretty much a week. What goes down so fast can surely repeat the trick the other way. Where it goes no one knows. Good luck to everyone "playing" right now though!
In the short term, I think tomorrow's rate decision offers an interesting opportunity on GBP/USD. Noticed GBP appreciate against the USD earlier today. Can only imagine that it's an expectation of a raise. But will they raise 25bp or 50? The former may lead to some additional strength in GBP, but I think that 50bp may frighten the market. Nonetheless, for the moment I think 50bp would be a good money making opportunity if one saw the number and was quick on the trigger re being bullish on GBP.
Personally, I don't listen too much to the 'professionals'.
Although when they are in strong agreement as to where the $ is going they have always made me money. 'cause I've gone the other way. I think they are working a lot longer time frame than I am, and so it takes a long time to come into play.
Still holding a line of shorts on eur/usd from earlier posts.
Interest rate today?
My view is that it will not have a great effect apart from the half hour or so 'rubber band move'.
Thanks for your last post. Your observations are quite correct. However, I don't often have the opportunity to follow 1 min charts, hence my entry was 1 pip below the low of the previous day's low. The purpose of my post was to show that sometimes currencies can also whip you, even if you give your stops some space. My short was triggered at 1.1426 and my SAR was triggered at 1.1487, which put me net long. Almost immediately, the market reversed and went short. I got well and truly whipped! But hey, my system is profitable most trades and so I view yesterday's losses as a business expense.
From looking at the 15min chart the short was below the low of the day at the time. your SAR was above the last pullback swing high whatever you want ot call it.
FWIW to overcome this, generally speaking, i use the second to last swing high/low as a reverse and the last swing high/low as a stoploss area. It does depend on what the chart looks also as to specific points etc.
If you look at the daily chart you can see a consolidation area at this price level in late sept, late july. And although eur$ has taken a dive and looked like a 1 day pullback so a sell below 1.1430 is reasonable we know that there could be problems in this area with a follow through of the trend. eur$ is in a 100pip range and looking at the historical prices you can expect it to last for 4/5 days if history repeats itself, anything can happen and i will be waiting to see what happens.
Excellent point about first swing high/low for the stop and second last swing high/low for the reversal.
Had I set my trade up accordingly, I would have been stopped out for a loss of 57 pips, without my long being triggered at 1.1497 (1 pip above the second last swing high on the hourly chart). It is worth noting, however, that the market got to 1.1494 (3 pips from reversal) before heading south!
hi nb.....i think mytrack have lost the plot on currencies....i'm getting all sorts of crap coming thru.....any more of this and i may have to bite the esignal bullet!!....
btw.....when i went to see kill bill i saw a trailer for matrix revolutions.....does this series of films have a plot?.....i cant make head nor tail of it and reeves is the worst actor on the planet imho....
This should tell you that you got your timing wrong but not worthy to go long yet. So at that point you would be looking for clues to see if you can short again with considerably reduced risk if the chart sets up as you like it.
Yeh the last one is a bit weak but it is the final part of a three part film the sfx are amazing though and its more for the hard core fan i think.
Kill Bill was good comedy violence from Tarentino (spelling oops) and clearly a money magnet for the second helping from him.
Mytrack is now pants for forex and i jumped ship last month i cant rely on there data at all and as such dont use them. Esignal has been very reliable and i have no complaints thus far.