tripleogstar
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May jus see euro and sterling rally tomorrow. I think the market has priced in a bad unemployment number tomorrow already.
Pippy5000
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From my broker
"The data we have in hand points to a weaker than expected NFP result of -685K. Initial jobless claims jumped to 642K in February from 584K prior while continuing claims edged up to 5.1 million from 4.8 previously. This week we also got the February ADP employment report and it was dreadful, showing a -697K drop in private payrolls. Using that metric alone would suggest an NFP decline closer to about -725K. The one component that kept our model above -700K was the ISM employment composite index. While the manufacturing portion slipped to 26.1 from 29.9, the services employment component jumped to 37.3 from 34.4 - the highest since October, when payrolls really started to precipitously decline. The news for the unemployment rate has not been good either. Along with higher jobless claims, the Conference Board’s labor differential (jobs plentiful minus jobs hard to get) plunged to a new cycle low of just -43.4 from -34.0 in January. This metric tracks unemployment quite well and, along with the sharp increase in claims, suggests the rate will jump to 7.9% from 7.6% prior. "
"The data we have in hand points to a weaker than expected NFP result of -685K. Initial jobless claims jumped to 642K in February from 584K prior while continuing claims edged up to 5.1 million from 4.8 previously. This week we also got the February ADP employment report and it was dreadful, showing a -697K drop in private payrolls. Using that metric alone would suggest an NFP decline closer to about -725K. The one component that kept our model above -700K was the ISM employment composite index. While the manufacturing portion slipped to 26.1 from 29.9, the services employment component jumped to 37.3 from 34.4 - the highest since October, when payrolls really started to precipitously decline. The news for the unemployment rate has not been good either. Along with higher jobless claims, the Conference Board’s labor differential (jobs plentiful minus jobs hard to get) plunged to a new cycle low of just -43.4 from -34.0 in January. This metric tracks unemployment quite well and, along with the sharp increase in claims, suggests the rate will jump to 7.9% from 7.6% prior. "
francisfinley
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hi guys, do you think usdchf will continue to bounce off the trendline from the nov peak?
the euro has broken its shorter term trendline...
the euro has broken its shorter term trendline...
Pippy5000
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I'd keep playing the 1.148 - 1.18 range in Swissie.. I was burned badly by a false breakout on the northern end two weeks ago. All the majors seem incapable of breaking their ranges. GDP, unemployment, ECB/BoE decisions couldn't do it.. Stock devastation couldn't do it..
There are just too many false breakouts, false reversals and misleading candlesticks.. Let's face it, we've never seen economic conditions like this before and the normal indicators just aren't worth much right now.. Keep playing the ranges.. You will eventually get stopped out but think of the money you would have made playing the ranges for the last 6 weeks without getting stopped out once.
There are just too many false breakouts, false reversals and misleading candlesticks.. Let's face it, we've never seen economic conditions like this before and the normal indicators just aren't worth much right now.. Keep playing the ranges.. You will eventually get stopped out but think of the money you would have made playing the ranges for the last 6 weeks without getting stopped out once.
francisfinley
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well with risk aversion it looks as though the euro will keep falling medium term meaning the usd will continue its upward poke....
RidderTrade
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yes..very choppy.. till today not any euro run up has sustained..
but REMEMBER 2 THINGS.. EURO/USD WILL TOUCH 1.12 THIS YEAR..
open your eyes if euro/usd strenghens to 1.3x
SECOND, there will be a time EURO/USD WILL BE AT 0.50
AS A THIRD.. its not guaranteed that currencies will move in line with stock markets.. I think there will be another.. trend change..with regards to that.
but REMEMBER 2 THINGS.. EURO/USD WILL TOUCH 1.12 THIS YEAR..
open your eyes if euro/usd strenghens to 1.3x
SECOND, there will be a time EURO/USD WILL BE AT 0.50
AS A THIRD.. its not guaranteed that currencies will move in line with stock markets.. I think there will be another.. trend change..with regards to that.
This is quite a statement. Are you expecting the euro to fail as a currency?
Pippy5000
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50 cents?? Perhaps if the Euro flies apart as some predict.. trichet denies it vehemently but that's his job.. I can definitely see 1.14 - 1.12 for Euro .. The problem is that the US keeps pumping out more and more bad news to keep up with the EZ bad news..
RidderTrade
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Failure euro
Yes.. i am expecting some fights within the EU..
I foresee the risk of EU breaking up..
Yes.. i am expecting some fights within the EU..
I foresee the risk of EU breaking up..
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RidderTrade
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Yes, I can see short term 1.12 or so, but the US quantatitave printing surely must have an effect at some stage.
RidderTrade
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yeah.. its long term...
the same i will mention here that there will be a time oil will be at 15$
ofcouse you have those bounces in between..
the same i will mention here that there will be a time oil will be at 15$
ofcouse you have those bounces in between..
RidderTrade
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Yes, I believe there will be problems too, but this could make the euro stronger long term. The drachma, peseta, punt etc are long gone if not forgotten in their respective countries. They cannot return even if their peoples wanted them. The markets would thrash them. I think that Germany and France would not be too unhappy to see one or two peripheral countries default. In the short term it would devalue the euro to some extent giving them an advantage in export markets. It would also encourage these and other nations within the euro zone to tighten monetary policy when they realize that the stronger nations are not going to turn on the printing press and bail them out.
