Forex Day Trader's Thread

actually short 1 lot 1.446 on Cable seems decent.. not huge confidence.. short USD/JPY about 90.9 with s/l at 91.4 seems pretty good too..
 
really bad week.
i got my usdjpy short too. but my stop loss is at 90 instead. it has been close so far.
 
I like to put my stop at 91.3 or 91.4 because it will take something pretty big to get it over 90.9 thereby reversing the downtrend.. I can still see it hitting 88 .. That's where it wants to go.
 
Did you at least get in on that USD/CAD like we talked about Trip?? That one seems to have worked out well.
 
I'm short 5 lots EUR/JPY for a move to 112.3 s/l 116.3 .. going to ride it over the weekend.. I actually made a small amount on USD/CAD going long later in the day but it never went much of anywhere and I booked about 10 pips on it..

No Heinekens for me tonight.. I will be back tomorrow for sure with chart studies.. It would be nice if everyone could contribute something and we could use our combined research to come up with a plan for next week..

Euro is utterly doomed folks.. might be a corrective bounce but it's toasted next week.. The weekly and monthly charts look awful..

This was a good week after a horrible week last week.
 
I think Cable can come up a little more.. I'm going to try to short in the 1.465 area.. All of its gains today came due to EUR weakness rather than USD weakness.. There should be further EUR weakness next week as well and that should keep Cable up.. Throw a little USD weakness in there and we could see it try for 1.48
 
I agree Cable breaching $1.50 is likely....but will we see a move towards $1.40 first??
 
Cable is now trading above SMA2 1.44751 on the dailies.. SMA3 comes in at 1.47582

SMA2 should act as decent support in the event that Euro rallies, which it probably will, but I don't think Euro is going to make much of a rally.. I think Euro pairs will tank and push Cable up towards SMA3 due to EUR/GBP cross action..

There's a bullish cross on the Stochastics and MACD. MACD has not given a false breakout signal in 100 days.

Spot is 1.45399.. My bias on Cable is definitely up.. Bollinger bands top 1.50313 might be the target.. I'll try to short at SMA3 first and then again at the Bands top..
 
EUR/USD daily chart has quite a few things working against it right now.

SMA2 has bearishly crossed SMA3 and SMA4 .. At the very least this will cause massive resistance in the lower 1.30s. This will result in a lack of appetite for longs.

Failed upward attempts to cross on stochastics and MACD.

Closed below the Bollinger Bands bottom yesterday.

In addition there's a tweezer tops candlestick formation around 1.331

Euro is a big fighter so I'd always be ready to take profit and reshort higher.. The market is likely to be very short as well and there are those who would take advantage of that on thin liquidity.

If Euro can fight back into the lower 1.30s I'd be willing put possibly 30 lots short.. Breaking through the jumbled SMA resistance in the lower 1.30s is very unlikely. The smell of blood is thick in the air and bears will come streaming out of the woods on any rally.

My bias couldn't possibly be more down.. Euro will have to fight very hard to move up and can be pushed down very easily.
 
the sentiment around euro zone very negative coming week we have non farm payroll out on Friday and thing to take note we have ecb boc rate decission and also rba rate decission. both central bank rba and boc expected will cut interest rate 50-100 basis points.
ecb may no cut rate.
 
more negative news will be good for usd and yen further advance due to risk aversion, stocks tumbling down.the only good news coming week that can improve the risk appetite i think will be obama stimulus package get approved by senates.
 
As I understand it another ECB rate cut is not really even on the table until March so by them not cutting rates I doubt it will give Euro much of a boost.. There's more bad news however.. 75% of liquidity consumers are long EUR/USD. This is actually a fairly reliable signal to take the opposite position short. The logic being that it's far more likely that 25% of retail traders are right, not 75%.

You're absolutely right about the possibility of the US government causing another irritating stock rally and causing USD weakness. We watched stocks rally big when the "bad banks" proposal rumor started to float around and we watched the S&P500 unravel when it was rumored to have failed as an idea. I actually read a blurb that said they'd have "new ideas" next week.. No matter what these new ideas are I bet it will make stocks rally, but there will be no follow through. It will only be another delicious opportunity to reset shorts because the bad news is not going to stop coming in and this latest failure to break to the topside is very bad news for Euro in the medium-term.
 
Euro will fall to 1.15 I officialy predict euro will fall to 1.15

Cable rally will fail, and after that it will sink 10x times so fast the Titanic Sank, 2009 will be worst cable year in history

A while ago i officially stated euro would fall to lower 1.3x and cable to 1.38
when prices where way higher in december
 
Not one news event will change its path of Euro currency,
NOT ONE CUT or RISE OR WHATEVER will make any change..

as the future path is already in place..

stocks will fall the worst.. and usd will rocket, there will be some bounce from current stock prices, or from a bit lower, after that the market will surprise with a sharp sell-off to new lows, actually this will be worse than what we have seen before..

after that the market will surprise with a months long countertrend

Enjoy

&&&&&&& Ridder &&&&&&&
 
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